{"result":[{"id":11,"updateTime":"2024-05-16T16:18:57.9530000+08:00","guid":"34c9564f-1070-4633-8a4d-cd3530082ada","fundID":"ETF01","twNameFull":"復華滬深300 A股基金","sortValue":0,"enName":"FIRST COMMERCIAL BANK-FUH HWA CSI 300 A SHARES EXCHANGE TRAD","ec002":"","twName":"—","pnav":"33.16","navDate":"2026/04/29","change":"0.44","changeRange":"1.34%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<p style=\"list-style-type:none;\">一、追求滬深300指數之績效表現， 提供投資人參與大陸A股市場的管道。</p><p style=\"list-style-type:none;\">二、投資效率佳，解決投資人選股問題。</p><p style=\"list-style-type:none;\">三、交易方式便利且成本低廉。</p><p style=\"list-style-type:none;\"><span style=\"color:red;\"><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA;mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW;\"><u>提醒投資人於交易前，應了解基金特性、指數內涵、投資人應負擔之成本費用及相關投資風險等各項資訊，詳見基金公開說明書。</u></span></span></p>","ec001":3,"ec005":"2012/06/05","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"第一商業銀行","ec009":"RR5","ec012":"0.750%","ec013":"0.100%","ec014":"","ec020":"","ec022":"","ec024":"中國大陸","ec026":"","ec027":"","ec028":"上海證券交易所與深圳證券交易所掛牌交易A股市場中，以市值及流動性等條件篩選出具代表性的300檔證券。","ec029":"","ec030":"—","ec033":"每半年(每年5、11月倒數第十個交易日進行審查，成分股及其權重之變動將於 6、12 月第二個週五的次個交易日生效)","ec034":"","ec036":"—","ec037":"—","ec038":"滬深300指數","ec039":"指數股票型","ec039_sort":5498,"ec040":"0","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，且配息型基金之漲跌幅未還原息值</p>","ec407":"<p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(61,61,61);font-size:12px;\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">資料來源：</span><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">投信投顧公會，</span><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">復華投信整理</span></span></p><p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(61,61,61);font-size:12px;\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</span></span></p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec411":"","ec412":"<p>1.以上資料依據各基金信託契約相關條款之規定公告。</p><p>2.每現金申購/買回基數之實際申購總價金、申購總價金差額及買回總價金，以經理公司通知給付之金額為準。</p>","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"006207","etf003":"復華滬深","etf005":"SHSZ300","etf011":"T+10","etf012":"<p>大陸地區修訂「合格境外機構投資者境內證券投資外匯管理規定」，取消開放式中國基金每月累計淨匯出資金不得超過上年底基金境內資產的20%之限制，故「復華滬深300 A股證券投資信託基金」即日起暫停實施買回控管機制。</p><div class=\"cta cta-9 flex align-items-start\"><div class=\"mr-2\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 mt-0\"><a href=\"/docUpload/ETF_document/ETF01_Redeem.pdf\">買回控管機制文件下載</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;</div></div><div class=\"cta cta-9 flex align-items-start\"><div class=\"mr-2\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 mt-0\"><a href=\"/docUpload/ETF_document/ETF01_20170214.pdf\">買回控管機制修訂公告(106/02/14)</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;</div></div><div class=\"cta cta-9 flex align-items-start\"><div class=\"mr-2\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 mt-0\"><a href=\"/docUpload/ETF_document/ETF01_20150618.pdf\">買回控管機制修訂公告(104/06/18)</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;</div></div><div class=\"cta cta-9 flex align-items-start\"><div class=\"mr-2\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 mt-0\"><a href=\"/docUpload/ETF_document/ETF01_Announcement.pdf\">買回控管機制實施公告(104/06/12)</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;</div></div>","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","renameArticle":"/services/news_list/content/news/975f46b9-99d9-4c77-9f99-76722fdf83b9?page=1","metaTitle":"復華滬深300 A股基金 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","prepayRate":"110%","listDate":"2012/06/22","isAssets":"2","issueUnit":"50","brokerList_PD":"元大證券股份有限公司、華南永昌綜合證券股份有限公司、宏遠證券股份有限公司、凱基證券股份有限公司、永豐金證券股份有限公司、群益金鼎證券股份有限公司、玉山綜合證券股份有限公司、兆豐證券股份有限公司、國泰證券股份有限公司、康和綜合證券股份有限公司、聯邦商業銀行股份有限公司、富邦綜合證券股份有限公司、國票綜合證券股份有限公司、統一綜合證券股份有限公司、台新綜合證券股份有限公司","brokerList_LP":"元大證券股份有限公司、凱基證券股份有限公司、群益金鼎證券股份有限公司、台新綜合證券股份有限公司","f_DisEqual":"","offer":"","marketing":"科技主推","tag":"","isTrade":0,"roi3m":"-0.45%","roi6m":"5.33%","roi1y":"19.28%","roi2y":"38.10%","roi3y":"20.73%","roiLaunch":"105.40%","roiY2D":"-0.45%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"廖崇文","isShow":0,"experience":"<p>經理人簡介</p>"}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":2931,"guid":"2fd65fab-e5dd-4abd-9834-4aab228cf39d","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"聯準會降息預期再升高，AI帶動股市反彈上揚","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市呈現上漲表現，美國聯準會(Fed)於12/10降息預期機率重回八成以上、AI展望仍樂觀發展，以及各大投資機構對明(2026)年美股樂觀展望，帶動股市自前兩週的修正走勢中反彈上揚，台股亦止穩上漲。<br><br>總計一週（2025/11/24-11/28）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲3.2%、3.7%、4.9%、9.7%，台股一週上漲4.5%以27,626點收盤。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑4個bps至4.02%，美元指數跌0.7%至99.46，油價(WTI)則一週漲1.3%。<br><br>主要影響股市因素包括：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國聯準會12/10降息預期機率重新提高至八成以上</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">聯準會降息預期提高，主要來自兩個方面：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">Fed理事Waller發表鴿派降息言論</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">聯準會的理事Waller釋出鴿派的降息言論，加上傳出白宮經濟顧問哈賽特最可能成為下一屆聯準會主席人選，將支持川普較積極降息立場，使得利率期貨顯示，聯準會12/10的降息機率再升高至八成以上。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">美國九月零售銷售數據不如預期</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">雖然截至11/22前一週的美國初失業救濟金人數，下降6000人至21.6萬人的七個月來的低點，但美國9月零售銷售僅月增0.2%，低於預期的0.4%及8月的0.6%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">市場對AI相關股票評價偏高疑慮降低，AI持續樂觀發展</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">目前企業獲利成長動能仍然強勁，今年第三季美股企業財報表現優於預期，企業獲利成長年增率約14.5 %，八成以上企業獲利表現優於預期。<br><br>對Fed降息預期再提高之後，原本就樂觀發展的AI相關股票，先前因評價偏高疑慮導致股價修正的因素降低，再帶動股市反彈。其中大型科技股中，Google引領上漲，主要是新版本的大語言模型獲得高度認同，以及自行研發晶片將可能外賣其他大型科技公司，提供股價進一步的上漲動能，並帶動相關可能供應鏈股票的走強。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台灣經濟成長率再度上修，第三季經濟成長率高達8.21%</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在AI的帶動之下，包括半導體晶片、AI伺服器與相關零組件的出口大幅成長，以及企業投資的增加，使得台灣第三季的經濟成長率初估值高達8.21%，第四季預估仍將達到7.91 %，與今年年初，主計處預估今年下半年可能成長動能降低的走勢完全迥異。此亦是為何台股的企業獲利持續上修，以及股市頻創新高的主要原因。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">國際專業投資機構對美股2026年展望持續樂觀</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據各媒體的報導，包括匯豐銀行、瑞銀集團、摩根大通銀行、摩根史丹利銀行、德意志銀行等機構，對於2026年底美股標普500指數的目標指數預測，分別在7,500至8,000點之間，與11/28收盤價的差距尚有9.5%至16.8%的可能漲幅空間。主要的預測理由包括：<strong>經濟穩定、Fed降息、政策環境改善，以及AI的熱潮帶動企業獲利成長近15%等因素。</strong><br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"市場對Fed降息預期再提高之後，原本就樂觀發展的AI相關股票，先前因評價偏高疑慮導致股價修正的因素降低，再帶動股市反彈。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202512/view-21.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2025/12/01 09:10:03","startTime":"2025-12-01T09:10:03.4770000+08:00","metaTitle":"聯準會降息預期再升高，AI帶動股市反彈上揚｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-12-01T09:16:36.5270000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/2fd65fab-e5dd-4abd-9834-4aab228cf39d"}],"news01":[{"id":2931,"guid":"2fd65fab-e5dd-4abd-9834-4aab228cf39d","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"聯準會降息預期再升高，AI帶動股市反彈上揚","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市呈現上漲表現，美國聯準會(Fed)於12/10降息預期機率重回八成以上、AI展望仍樂觀發展，以及各大投資機構對明(2026)年美股樂觀展望，帶動股市自前兩週的修正走勢中反彈上揚，台股亦止穩上漲。<br><br>總計一週（2025/11/24-11/28）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲3.2%、3.7%、4.9%、9.7%，台股一週上漲4.5%以27,626點收盤。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑4個bps至4.02%，美元指數跌0.7%至99.46，油價(WTI)則一週漲1.3%。<br><br>主要影響股市因素包括：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國聯準會12/10降息預期機率重新提高至八成以上</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">聯準會降息預期提高，主要來自兩個方面：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">Fed理事Waller發表鴿派降息言論</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">聯準會的理事Waller釋出鴿派的降息言論，加上傳出白宮經濟顧問哈賽特最可能成為下一屆聯準會主席人選，將支持川普較積極降息立場，使得利率期貨顯示，聯準會12/10的降息機率再升高至八成以上。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">美國九月零售銷售數據不如預期</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">雖然截至11/22前一週的美國初失業救濟金人數，下降6000人至21.6萬人的七個月來的低點，但美國9月零售銷售僅月增0.2%，低於預期的0.4%及8月的0.6%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">市場對AI相關股票評價偏高疑慮降低，AI持續樂觀發展</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">目前企業獲利成長動能仍然強勁，今年第三季美股企業財報表現優於預期，企業獲利成長年增率約14.5 %，八成以上企業獲利表現優於預期。<br><br>對Fed降息預期再提高之後，原本就樂觀發展的AI相關股票，先前因評價偏高疑慮導致股價修正的因素降低，再帶動股市反彈。其中大型科技股中，Google引領上漲，主要是新版本的大語言模型獲得高度認同，以及自行研發晶片將可能外賣其他大型科技公司，提供股價進一步的上漲動能，並帶動相關可能供應鏈股票的走強。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台灣經濟成長率再度上修，第三季經濟成長率高達8.21%</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在AI的帶動之下，包括半導體晶片、AI伺服器與相關零組件的出口大幅成長，以及企業投資的增加，使得台灣第三季的經濟成長率初估值高達8.21%，第四季預估仍將達到7.91 %，與今年年初，主計處預估今年下半年可能成長動能降低的走勢完全迥異。此亦是為何台股的企業獲利持續上修，以及股市頻創新高的主要原因。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">國際專業投資機構對美股2026年展望持續樂觀</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據各媒體的報導，包括匯豐銀行、瑞銀集團、摩根大通銀行、摩根史丹利銀行、德意志銀行等機構，對於2026年底美股標普500指數的目標指數預測，分別在7,500至8,000點之間，與11/28收盤價的差距尚有9.5%至16.8%的可能漲幅空間。主要的預測理由包括：<strong>經濟穩定、Fed降息、政策環境改善，以及AI的熱潮帶動企業獲利成長近15%等因素。</strong><br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"市場對Fed降息預期再提高之後，原本就樂觀發展的AI相關股票，先前因評價偏高疑慮導致股價修正的因素降低，再帶動股市反彈。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202512/view-21.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2025/12/01 09:10:03","startTime":"2025-12-01T09:10:03.4770000+08:00","metaTitle":"聯準會降息預期再升高，AI帶動股市反彈上揚｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-12-01T09:16:36.5270000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/2fd65fab-e5dd-4abd-9834-4aab228cf39d"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/ETF01.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/ETF01.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/ETF01.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"","url2":"","file01":"/docupload/download/help/K1.pdf"},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"國外股票型","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":1,"isETFRule":1,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1005,"updateTime":"2025-11-10T09:59:30.2030000+08:00","guid":"dc8b65dd-09cf-4116-aeca-4f7dea542896","fundID":"ETF03","twNameFull":"復華恒生單日正向二倍基金","sortValue":3,"enName":"Fuh Hwa Daily Hang Seng Leveraged 2X ETF","ec002":"","twName":"—","pnav":"17.72","navDate":"2026/04/29","change":"0.52","changeRange":"3.02%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<p style=\"list-style-type:none;\">一、追求恒生指數單日正向二倍報酬之績效表現，提供投資人在香港股市多頭時積極追求獲利之管道。</p><p style=\"list-style-type:none;\">二、交易方式便利且成本低廉。</p><p style=\"list-style-type:none;\"><span style=\"color:red;\"><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA;mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW;\"><u>提醒投資人於交易前，應了解基金特性、指數內涵、投資人應負擔之成本費用及相關投資風險等各項資訊，詳見基金公開說明書。</u></span></span></p>","ec001":3,"ec005":"2016/01/13","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"玉山商業銀行","ec009":"RR5","ec012":"0.950%","ec013":"0.170%","ec020":"","ec022":"","ec024":"香港","ec026":"","ec028":"該指數為反應恒生指數單日之正向二倍表現所編製及計算。<br>（恒生指數成分內容為香港聯合交易所主板上市之證券中，以市值及流動性等條件篩選出具代表性的成分證券）。","ec030":"—","ec033":"無","ec034":"<div class=\"editor\"><figure><p class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/temp/202211/ETF003.png\"></p></figure></div>","ec036":"—","ec037":"—","ec038":"恒指槓桿指數","ec039":"指數股票型","ec039_sort":5498,"ec040":"0","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，且配息型基金之漲跌幅未還原息值</p>","ec407":"<p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(61,61,61);font-size:12px;\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">資料來源：</span><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">投信投顧公會，</span><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">復華投信整理</span></span></p><p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(61,61,61);font-size:12px;\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</span></span></p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec411":"","ec412":"<p>1.以上資料依據各基金信託契約相關條款之規定公告。</p><p>2.每現金申購/買回基數之實際申購總價金、申購總價金差額及買回總價金，以經理公司通知給付之金額為準。</p>","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"00650L","etf003":"復華香港正2","etf005":"HSILI","etf011":"T+6","etf012":"","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","renameArticle":"/services/news_list/content/news/975f46b9-99d9-4c77-9f99-76722fdf83b9?page=1","metaTitle":"復華恒生單日正向二倍基金 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","prepayRate":"120%","listDate":"2016/01/27","isAssets":"2","issueUnit":"50","brokerList_PD":"元大證券股份有限公司、華南永昌綜合證券股份有限公司、凱基證券股份有限公司、永豐金證券股份有限公司、群益金鼎證券股份有限公司、玉山綜合證券股份有限公司、國泰證券股份有限公司、富邦綜合證券股份有限公司、國票綜合證券股份有限公司、統一綜合證券股份有限公司、台新綜合證券股份有限公司、中國信託綜合證券股份有限公司","brokerList_LP":"元大證券股份有限公司、凱基證券股份有限公司、群益金鼎證券股份有限公司、統一綜合證券股份有限公司、台新綜合證券股份有限公司","f_DisEqual":"","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","roi3m":"-7.21%","roi6m":"-15.30%","roi1y":"1.69%","roi2y":"87.95%","roi3y":"15.94%","roiLaunch":"8.13%","roiY2D":"-7.21%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"廖崇文","isShow":0,"experience":"<p>經理人簡介</p>"}],"manager01":[],"news":[],"news01":[],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/ETF03.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/ETF03.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/ETF03.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"","url2":"","file01":"/docupload/download/help/K1.pdf"},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"槓反型","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":1,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1040,"updateTime":"2025-11-10T10:00:19.6530000+08:00","guid":"f4379f0a-db5e-4ff4-abf6-69f38450ee2d","fundID":"ETF04","twNameFull":"復華恒生單日反向一倍基金","sortValue":2,"enName":"Fuh Hwa Daily Hang Seng Inversed ETF","ec002":"","twName":"—","pnav":"5.19","navDate":"2026/04/29","change":"-0.08","changeRange":"-1.52%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<p style=\"list-style-type:none;\">一、追求恒生指數單日反向一倍報酬之績效表現，提供投資人在香港股市空頭時仍可追求獲利之管道。</p><p style=\"list-style-type:none;\">二、交易方式便利且成本低廉。</p><p style=\"list-style-type:none;\"><span style=\"color:red;\"><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA;mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW;\"><u>提醒投資人於交易前，應了解基金特性、指數內涵、投資人應負擔之成本費用及相關投資風險等各項資訊，詳見基金公開說明書。</u></span></span></p>","ec001":3,"ec005":"2016/01/13","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"玉山商業銀行","ec009":"RR5","ec012":"0.950%","ec013":"0.170%","ec020":"","ec022":"","ec024":"香港","ec026":"","ec028":"該指數為反應恒生指數單日之反向一倍表現所編製及計算。<br>（恒生指數成分內容為香港聯合交易所主板上市之證券中，以市值及流動性等條件篩選出具代表性的成分證券）。","ec030":"—","ec033":"無","ec034":"","ec036":"—","ec037":"—","ec038":"恒指短倉指數","ec039":"指數股票型","ec039_sort":5498,"ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，且配息型基金之漲跌幅未還原息值</p>","ec407":"<p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(61,61,61);font-size:12px;\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">資料來源：</span><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">投信投顧公會，</span><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">復華投信整理</span></span></p><p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(61,61,61);font-size:12px;\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</span></span></p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec411":"","ec412":"<p>1.以上資料依據各基金信託契約相關條款之規定公告。</p><p>2.每現金申購/買回基數之實際申購總價金、申購總價金差額及買回總價金，以經理公司通知給付之金額為準。</p>","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"00651R","etf003":"復華香港反1","etf005":"HSISI","etf011":"T+6","etf012":"","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","renameArticle":"/services/news_list/content/news/975f46b9-99d9-4c77-9f99-76722fdf83b9?page=1","metaTitle":"復華恒生單日反向一倍基金 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","prepayRate":"110%","listDate":"2016/01/27","isAssets":"2","issueUnit":"50","brokerList_PD":"元大證券股份有限公司、華南永昌綜合證券股份有限公司、凱基證券股份有限公司、永豐金證券股份有限公司、群益金鼎證券股份有限公司、玉山綜合證券股份有限公司、國泰證券股份有限公司、富邦綜合證券股份有限公司、國票綜合證券股份有限公司、統一綜合證券股份有限公司、台新綜合證券股份有限公司、中國信託綜合證券股份有限公司","brokerList_LP":"元大證券股份有限公司、凱基證券股份有限公司、群益金鼎證券股份有限公司、統一綜合證券股份有限公司、台新綜合證券股份有限公司","f_DisEqual":"","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","roi3m":"2.99%","roi6m":"7.41%","roi1y":"-14.44%","roi2y":"-42.96%","roi3y":"-32.48%","roiLaunch":"-63.27%","roiY2D":"2.99%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"廖崇文","isShow":0,"experience":"<p>經理人簡介</p>"}],"manager01":[],"news":[],"news01":[],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/ETF04.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/ETF04.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/ETF04.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"","url2":"","file01":"/docupload/download/help/K1.pdf"},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"槓反型","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":1,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":14,"updateTime":"2026-04-21T08:58:37.8030000+08:00","guid":"04b72f51-ca07-4b76-b2b2-843197d9cae4","fundID":"ETF05","twNameFull":"復華1至5年期非投資等級債券基金","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa 1-5 Yr High Yield ETF","ec002":"(基金之配息來源可能為收益平準金)","twName":"—","pnav":"18.88","navDate":"2026/04/29","change":"-0.01","changeRange":"-0.05%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<p>一、以較短天期之非投資等級債券為主要投資標的，產業配置亦較為分散。</p><p>二、追蹤指數操作，資訊相對透明。</p><p>三、交易方式便利且成本低廉，目前免徵證交稅。</p><p><span style=\"color:red;\"><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA;mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW;\"><u>提醒投資人於交易前，應了解基金特性、指數內涵、投資人應負擔之成本費用及相關投資風險等各項資訊，詳見基金公開說明書。</u></span></span></p>","ec001":3,"ec005":"2017/08/09","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"玉山商業銀行","ec009":"RR3","ec012":"0.26%~0.40%","ec013":"0.06%~0.16%","ec020":"","ec022":"季配","ec024":"全球","ec026":"","ec028":"信用評等在Ba1級以下至B3級以上之美元計價非投資等級公司債，具有高殖利率之特性。<br/>成分債券到期期限為1至5年，單一債券在外發行量為五億美元以上。<br/>各產業債券市值權重不得高於10%。<br/>成分債券僅納入票面利率達6.5%以上（含）之債券。","ec030":"—","ec033":"每月","ec034":"<div class=\"editor\"><figure><p class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/temp/202211/ETF005.png\"></p></figure></div>","ec036":"—","ec037":"—","ec038":"彭博1至5年期美元高收益債券(不含中國)發行量五億美元產業10%上限指數","ec039":"指數股票型","ec039_sort":5498,"ec040":"每年2、5、8、11月底","ec312":1,"ec314":1,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，且配息型基金之漲跌幅未還原息值</p><p>【註】淨收入係收入扣除該基金應負擔之費用，有關收益平準金之說明請詳閱該基金之信託契約或公開說明書。</p><p>*：係指本基金收入扣除應負擔費用(可能為負值)，包含因申購及買回產生之收益平準金，有關收益平準金之詳細說明請詳閱本基金信託契約或公開說明書。<br>**：依金融監督管理委員會112年11月13日金管證投字第1120358072號函規定，當本基金符合投信公司或金融監督管理委員會所訂之收益平準金配發標準時，方得配發收益平準金中，屬於既有投資人申贖產生之部分(即上表B2)，且不得超過法令規定之使用上限。<br>***：包含已實現及未實現的資本損益、已實現及未實現的資本損益平準金(申購及買回)。<br>&nbsp;</p>","ec407":"<p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(61,61,61);font-size:16px;\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">資料來源：</span><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">投信投顧公會，</span><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">復華投信整理</span></span></p><p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(61,61,61);font-size:16px;\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, 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style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA;mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW;\"><u>提醒投資人於交易前，應了解基金特性、指數內涵、投資人應負擔之成本費用及相關投資風險等各項資訊，詳見基金公開說明書。</u></span></span></p>","ec001":3,"ec005":"2017/08/09","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"玉山商業銀行","ec009":"RR3","ec012":"0.25%~0.45%","ec013":"0.06%~0.16%","ec020":"","ec022":"季配","ec024":"新興市場","ec026":"","ec028":"美元計價之新興市場投資等級債券，涵蓋主權債、類主權債及公司債，惟不含涉險國家為中國之債券。<Br/>成分債券到期期限為10年以上。<br/>各國家債券市值權重不得高於10%。","ec030":"—","ec033":"每月","ec034":"","ec036":"—","ec037":"—","ec038":"彭博新興市場10年期以上美元投資等級債券(不含中國)國家10%上限指數","ec039":"指數股票型","ec039_sort":5498,"ec040":"每年2、5、8、11月底","ec312":1,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，且配息型基金之漲跌幅未還原息值</p><p>【註】淨收入係收入扣除該基金應負擔之費用，有關收益平準金之說明請詳閱該基金之信託契約或公開說明書。</p><p>*：係指本基金收入扣除應負擔費用(可能為負值)，包含因申購及買回產生之收益平準金，有關收益平準金之詳細說明請詳閱本基金信託契約或公開說明書。<br>**：依金融監督管理委員會112年11月13日金管證投字第1120358072號函規定，當本基金符合投信公司或金融監督管理委員會所訂之收益平準金配發標準時，方得配發收益平準金中，屬於既有投資人申贖產生之部分(即上表B2)，且不得超過法令規定之使用上限。<br>***：包含已實現及未實現的資本損益、已實現及未實現的資本損益平準金(申購及買回)。<br>&nbsp;</p>","ec407":"<p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(61,61,61);font-size:12px;\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">資料來源：</span><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">投信投顧公會，</span><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">復華投信整理</span></span></p><p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(61,61,61);font-size:12px;\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示；表格所示為含息報酬率，走勢圖為不含息之績效</span></span></p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec411":"","ec412":"<p>1.以上資料依據各基金信託契約相關條款之規定公告。</p><p>2.每現金申購/買回基數之實際申購總價金、申購總價金差額及買回總價金，以經理公司通知給付之金額為準。</p>","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"00711B","etf003":"復華彭博新興債","etf005":"BCIYTRUU","etf011":"T+6","etf012":"","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","renameArticle":"/services/news_list/content/news/975f46b9-99d9-4c77-9f99-76722fdf83b9?page=1","metaTitle":"復華新興市場10年期以上債券基金 ｜ 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Hwa FTSE Mortgage REITs ETF","ec002":"(基金之配息來源可能為收益平準金)","twName":"—","pnav":"9.09","navDate":"2026/04/29","change":"-0.14","changeRange":"-1.52%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<p>一、以具有高股利收益特性之美國抵押權型不動產投資信託為主要投資標的。</p><p>二、追蹤指數操作，資訊相對透明。</p><p>三、交易方式便利且成本低廉。</p><p><span style=\"color:red;\"><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA;mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW;\"><u>提醒投資人於交易前，應了解基金特性、指數內涵、投資人應負擔之成本費用及相關投資風險等各項資訊，詳見基金公開說明書。</u></span></span></p>","ec001":3,"ec005":"2017/08/09","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"玉山商業銀行","ec009":"RR5","ec012":"0.25%~0.35%","ec013":"0.08%~0.16%","ec020":"","ec022":"季配","ec024":"美國","ec026":"","ec028":"於美國證券交易市場掛牌交易之抵押權型不動產投資信託(Mortgage REITs)，依照市值、流動性等條件篩選指數成分證券，計算出流通調整市值加權價格指數，以有效反映美國抵押權型不動產投資信託之表現。","ec030":"—","ec033":"每季\r\n(於每個生效日之前四個禮拜進行審查，生效日為每年3、6、9及12月第三個週五的次個交易日)","ec034":"<div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">&nbsp;</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">頒獎單位</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">獎項名稱</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\"><figure class=\"image\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/temp/202502/晨星smart-100.png\"></figure></td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">晨星暨Smart智富台灣基金獎</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2024年海外原型類指數股票型基金獎</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","ec036":"—","ec037":"—","ec038":"富時NAREIT抵押權型不動產投資信託指數","ec039":"指數股票型","ec039_sort":5498,"ec040":"每年2、5、8、11月底","ec312":1,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，且配息型基金之漲跌幅未還原息值</p><p>【註】淨收入係收入扣除該基金應負擔之費用，有關收益平準金之說明請詳閱該基金之信託契約或公開說明書。</p><p>*：係指本基金收入扣除應負擔費用(可能為負值)，包含因申購及買回產生之收益平準金，有關收益平準金之詳細說明請詳閱本基金信託契約或公開說明書。<br>**：依金融監督管理委員會112年11月13日金管證投字第1120358072號函規定，當本基金符合投信公司或金融監督管理委員會所訂之收益平準金配發標準時，方得配發收益平準金中，屬於既有投資人申贖產生之部分(即上表B2)，且不得超過法令規定之使用上限。<br>***：包含已實現及未實現的資本損益、已實現及未實現的資本損益平準金(申購及買回)。<br>&nbsp;</p>","ec407":"<p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(61,61,61);font-size:12px;\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">資料來源：</span><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">投信投顧公會，</span><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">復華投信整理</span></span></p><p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(61,61,61);font-size:12px;\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示；表格所示為含息報酬率，走勢圖為不含息之績效</span></span></p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec411":"","ec412":"<p>1.以上資料依據各基金信託契約相關條款之規定公告。</p><p>2.每現金申購/買回基數之實際申購總價金、申購總價金差額及買回總價金，以經理公司通知給付之金額為準。</p>","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"00712","etf003":"復華富時不動產","etf005":"FNMR","etf011":"T+6","etf012":"","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","renameArticle":"/services/news_list/content/news/975f46b9-99d9-4c77-9f99-76722fdf83b9?page=1","metaTitle":"復華富時不動產證券化基金 ｜ 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Hwa FTSE Taiwan High Div Low Vol ETF","ec002":"(基金之配息來源可能為收益平準金且本基金並無保證收益及配息)","twName":"—","pnav":"73.72","navDate":"2026/04/29","change":"0.47","changeRange":"0.64%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<p>一、直接參與具有較高股利率且波動較低之國內股票。</p><p>二、追蹤指數操作，資訊相對透明。</p><p>三、交易方式便利且成本低廉。</p><p><span style=\"color:red;\"><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA;mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW;\"><u>提醒投資人於交易前，應了解基金特性、指數內涵、投資人應負擔之成本費用及相關投資風險等各項資訊，詳見基金公開說明書。</u></span></span></p>","ec001":3,"ec005":"2018/04/12","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"臺灣新光商業銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"0.30%~0.45%","ec013":"0.035%","ec020":"","ec022":"季配","ec024":"台灣","ec026":"","ec028":"由富時臺灣50指數、富時臺灣中型100指數成分證券中，依照波動度、股利率等條件，篩選出四十檔指數成分證券，以計算流通調整市值加權價格指數，可反映市場上高股息率且低波動之大型企業表現。","ec030":"—","ec033":"每年\r\n(於每個生效日之前12個月資料進行審查，生效日為每年3月第三個週五的次個交易日)","ec034":"","ec036":"—","ec037":"—","ec038":"富時台灣高股息低波動指數","ec039":"指數股票型","ec039_sort":5498,"ec040":"每年1、4、7、10月底","ec312":1,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>【註】淨收入係收入扣除該基金應負擔之費用，有關收益平準金之說明請詳閱該基金之信託契約或公開說明書。</p><p>*：係指本基金收入扣除應負擔費用(可能為負值)，包含因申購及買回產生之收益平準金，有關收益平準金之詳細說明請詳閱本基金信託契約或公開說明書。<br>**：依金融監督管理委員會112年11月13日金管證投字第1120358072號函規定，當本基金符合投信公司或金融監督管理委員會所訂之收益平準金配發標準時，方得配發收益平準金中，屬於既有投資人申贖產生之部分(即上表B2)，且不得超過法令規定之使用上限。<br>***：包含已實現及未實現的資本損益、已實現及未實現的資本損益平準金(申購及買回)。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>1. 漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，且配息型基金之漲跌幅未還原息值。</p><p>2. 本基金追蹤富時台灣高股息低波動指數，不保證該指數績效在任何時候的表現均優於市場行情，在某些市場環境下，指數績效可能落後市值加權指數或其他績效指標，且這種情況可能持續很長一段時間。</p><p>3. 追蹤標的指數為Smart Beta指數之ETF，相較於追蹤市值加權指數之ETF，可能有相當比例持股投資於市值較小之公司。但本基金追蹤富時台灣高股息低波動指數之編制方式中，指數成分樣本池為富時台灣50與富時台灣中型100指數成分證券，前述兩指數成分證券之資格，市值均需達一定條件以上，投資於市值較小之公司機率較低。</p>","ec407":"<p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(61,61,61);font-size:12px;\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">資料來源：</span><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">投信投顧公會，</span><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">復華投信整理</span></span></p><p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(61,61,61);font-size:12px;\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示；表格所示為含息報酬率，走勢圖為不含息之績效</span></span></p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec411":"","ec412":"<p>1.以上資料依據各基金信託契約相關條款之規定公告。</p><p>2.每現金申購/買回基數之實際申購總價金、申購總價金差額及買回總價金，以經理公司通知給付之金額為準。</p>","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"00731","etf003":"復華富時高息低波","etf005":"HDLVTW","etf011":"T+3","etf012":"","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","renameArticle":"/services/news_list/content/news/975f46b9-99d9-4c77-9f99-76722fdf83b9?page=1","metaTitle":"復華富時台灣高股息低波動基金 ｜ 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sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">復華投信整理</span></span></p><p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(61,61,61);font-size:12px;\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, 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src=\"/UploadFile/temp/202211/ETF011.png\"></p></figure></div>","ec036":"—","ec037":"—","ec038":"彭博15年期以上美元製藥業公司債券指數","ec039":"指數股票型","ec039_sort":5498,"ec040":"每年1、4、7、10月底","ec312":1,"ec314":1,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，且配息型基金之漲跌幅未還原息值</p><p>【註】淨收入係收入扣除該基金應負擔之費用，有關收益平準金之說明請詳閱該基金之信託契約或公開說明書。</p><p>*：係指本基金收入扣除應負擔費用(可能為負值)，包含因申購及買回產生之收益平準金，有關收益平準金之詳細說明請詳閱本基金信託契約或公開說明書。<br>**：依金融監督管理委員會112年11月13日金管證投字第1120358072號函規定，當本基金符合投信公司或金融監督管理委員會所訂之收益平準金配發標準時，方得配發收益平準金中，屬於既有投資人申贖產生之部分(即上表B2)，且不得超過法令規定之使用上限。<br>***：包含已實現及未實現的資本損益、已實現及未實現的資本損益平準金(申購及買回)。<br>&nbsp;</p>","ec407":"<p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(61,61,61);font-size:12px;\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, 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sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">復華投信整理</span></span></p><p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(61,61,61);font-size:12px;\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, 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sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">資料來源：</span><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">投信投顧公會，</span><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">復華投信整理</span></span></p><p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(61,61,61);font-size:12px;\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, 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style=\"background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(61,61,61);font-size:12px;\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">資料來源：</span><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, 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style=\"background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(61,61,61);font-size:12px;\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">資料來源：</span><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">投信投顧公會，</span><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">復華投信整理</span></span></p><p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(61,61,61);font-size:12px;\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline 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Hwa China 5G Communication ETF","ec002":"","twName":"—","pnav":"34.84","navDate":"2026/04/29","change":"0.17","changeRange":"0.49%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<p>一、主要投資於業務與5G建設或應用相關的大陸地區A股上市公司股票。</p><p>二、追蹤指數操作，資訊相對透明。</p><p>三、交易方式便利且成本低廉。</p><p><span style=\"color:red;\"><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA;mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW;\"><u>提醒投資人於交易前，應了解基金特性、指數內涵、投資人應負擔之成本費用及相關投資風險等各項資訊，詳見基金公開說明書。</u></span></span></p>","ec001":3,"ec005":"2020/07/14","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"台新國際商業銀行","ec009":"RR5","ec012":"0.900%","ec013":"0.100%","ec020":"","ec022":"","ec024":"中國大陸","ec026":"","ec028":"選取業務與5G建設或應用相關的大陸地區A股上市公司。","ec030":"—","ec033":"每半年","ec034":"<div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">&nbsp;</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">頒獎單位</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">獎項名稱</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\"><figure class=\"image\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/temp/202502/AAM-100.png\"></figure></td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">亞洲資產管理雜誌 (Asia Asset Management)</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2026臺灣年度最佳績效ETF (Best Absolute Performing ETF of the Year)</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","ec036":"—","ec037":"—","ec038":"中証5G通信主題指數","ec039":"指數股票型","ec039_sort":5498,"ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，且配息型基金之漲跌幅未還原息值</p>","ec407":"<p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(61,61,61);font-size:12px;\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">資料來源：</span><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:left;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">投信投顧公會，</span><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:Arial, 微軟正黑體, &quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;, sans-serif;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;\">復華投信整理</span></span></p><p><span style=\"background-color:rgb(255,255,255);color:rgb(61,61,61);font-size:12px;\"><span style=\"-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;display:inline 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class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">一手包辦美國大型成長股的「復華美國標普500成長ETF基金」( 代碼：00924 )，已經金管會核備成立並<u>在4/26(三)掛牌上市</u>，投資人可直接在各大券商進行買賣交易，想要定期定額存ETF，也能透過兆豐證券、國泰證券、統一證券、玉山證券等多家券商來長線布局！</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">00924布局多元成長產業</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">備受市場關注的「復華美國標普500成長ETF基金」，其投資範圍涵蓋市場上熱門主題，如人工智能與大數據運算(AIGC)、算力伺服器、電動車及抗通膨等領域，在募集期間成功集資新臺幣23億元，反映投資人對未來成長股的樂觀預期。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">投資主題百花齊放 共同點都是成長</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202304/ffbec98d-5acb-4481-aa81-31a5ca60a17c20230419-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：復華投信整理。資料日期：2022/12/30。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據最新數據顯示，S&amp;P 500成長股指數今年迄今上漲10.3%，超過S&amp;P 500價值股指數同期8.2%的漲幅。這與去年的情況形成鮮明對比，當時價值股，即市淨率較低的股票，在低迷的市場中脫穎而出。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-1\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">&nbsp;</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">S&amp;P500 成長指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">S&amp;P500 指數</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">2023年第一季</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">9.2%</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">7.0%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">2023年以來</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">10.3%</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">8.2%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，復華投信整理。資料日期：2023/1/1~2023/04/20。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">此外，若以定時定額的方式長線布局，S&amp;P 500成長股指數也都有相對亮眼的表現，對於喜歡存股、存ETF的投資人來說，更是在投資台股之外，重要的資產配置之一。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-1\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">指數之累積報酬率</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">S&amp;P500成長指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">臺灣高股息指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">臺灣加權指數</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">一年</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">7.38%</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">-1.96%</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">2.45%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">三年</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">5.79%</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">0.56%</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">-2.18%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">五年</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">44.30%</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">24.67%</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">33.49%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">十年</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">85.24%</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">47.56%</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">80.55%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，復華投信整理。2013.3-2023.2，每月5日扣款，未列入交易及稅務成本；皆以報酬指數計算。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">分享成長紅利，現在進場正是時候</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">復華美國標普500成長ETF基金經理人吳允翔以電動車為例說明，電動車領域作為全球綠色能源和低碳經濟的重要支柱，正經歷著前所未有的發展機遇。00924的成分股包含綠色革命的龍頭股特斯拉(Tesla)，不僅業務範圍包含造車以及太陽能板，近期更在上海投資電池工廠加強儲能業務，分享綠色經濟成果。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><strong>個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">此外，隨著全球通膨壓力不斷上升，投資具有抗通膨能力的資產類別成為市場的熱門選擇。該基金成分也包含成長性好的消費品、醫療保健、科技等行業公司，尋求在通膨壓力下能維持營收及獲利的標的，期望為投資人帶來合理的投資回報。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">本益比近五年低點 投資價值浮現</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202304/2d5b5f29-7f23-4eca-bfee-e5a9dded7d6c20230419-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，復華投信整理。資料日期：2017/12/29~2022/12/30。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>隨著美國聯準會升息循環可望進入尾聲，將有助於美國成長股未來表現。復華投信建議投資人長期定時定額累積單位數，入手價格低，不僅抱得住，也才有機會掌握全球經濟復甦帶來的投資機會，透過分散投資組合風險捕抓高成長的個股，分享到成長紅利！</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我想看看最新優惠基金</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/funds/offer\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">&nbsp;</p>","summary":"投資人可直接在各大券商進行買賣交易，想要定期定額存ETF，也能透過兆豐、國泰、統一等券商長線布局","url":"","urlType":"","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202304/07eeb96e-43a9-4b6f-9fc1-37fcdba66104view-69.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"ETF精選主題,美國","postTime":"2023/04/24 17:06:14","startTime":"2023-04-24T17:06:14.1070000+08:00","status":0,"metaTitle":"","metaDescription":"","metaKeyword":"","value01":0,"value02":"","value03":"","value04":"","value05":"","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2023-07-17T11:01:37.0670000+08:00","files":"","canEdit":false,"isFund":0,"isMFund":0,"isMedia":0,"isArticle":0,"isDividend":0,"dividendType":"","dividendRoute":"","categoryGuid":"05eabef8-a98b-46ea-83c0-b8249588ea11","category":{"id":21032,"guid":"05eabef8-a98b-46ea-83c0-b8249588ea11","name":"ETF公告","parentGuid":"8836ee0a-d4d8-4a2d-a215-e8da60bd8af9","route":"/ETF/annoucement_list","routeSource":"/ETF/annoucement_list.html","route01":"/ETF/annoucement_list/content/{guid}","route01Source":"/ETF/annoucement_article.html","views":"FrontE","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"metaTitle":"ETF公告｜復華投信","metaDescription":"掌握未來投資前景,選擇復華投信ETF,輕鬆追蹤指數的投資工具。","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/afc9b540-397d-46da-b016-f39451e085f1E.ETF.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"--","depth":2,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12373,"guid":"d352f40a-b189-47d0-8225-fc558b34aab4","name":"ETF公告","parentGuid":"3ce7b1c0-22eb-439d-a8f8-734d998b0836","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/ETF/annoucement_list/content/11103d1d-fa71-4bea-ad29-5208a65dd078"},{"id":1809,"guid":"11103d1d-fa71-4bea-ad29-5208a65dd078","articleCategory":"ETF公告","title":"復華美國標普500成長ETF基金精選強中之強，定期定額掌握成長紅利！","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">一手包辦美國大型成長股的「復華美國標普500成長ETF基金」( 代碼：00924 )，已經金管會核備成立並<u>在4/26(三)掛牌上市</u>，投資人可直接在各大券商進行買賣交易，想要定期定額存ETF，也能透過兆豐證券、國泰證券、統一證券、玉山證券等多家券商來長線布局！</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">00924布局多元成長產業</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">備受市場關注的「復華美國標普500成長ETF基金」，其投資範圍涵蓋市場上熱門主題，如人工智能與大數據運算(AIGC)、算力伺服器、電動車及抗通膨等領域，在募集期間成功集資新臺幣23億元，反映投資人對未來成長股的樂觀預期。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">投資主題百花齊放 共同點都是成長</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202304/ffbec98d-5acb-4481-aa81-31a5ca60a17c20230419-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：復華投信整理。資料日期：2022/12/30。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據最新數據顯示，S&amp;P 500成長股指數今年迄今上漲10.3%，超過S&amp;P 500價值股指數同期8.2%的漲幅。這與去年的情況形成鮮明對比，當時價值股，即市淨率較低的股票，在低迷的市場中脫穎而出。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-1\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">&nbsp;</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">S&amp;P500 成長指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">S&amp;P500 指數</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">2023年第一季</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">9.2%</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">7.0%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">2023年以來</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">10.3%</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">8.2%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，復華投信整理。資料日期：2023/1/1~2023/04/20。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">此外，若以定時定額的方式長線布局，S&amp;P 500成長股指數也都有相對亮眼的表現，對於喜歡存股、存ETF的投資人來說，更是在投資台股之外，重要的資產配置之一。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-1\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">指數之累積報酬率</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">S&amp;P500成長指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">臺灣高股息指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">臺灣加權指數</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">一年</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">7.38%</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">-1.96%</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">2.45%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">三年</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">5.79%</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">0.56%</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">-2.18%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">五年</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">44.30%</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">24.67%</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">33.49%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">十年</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">85.24%</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">47.56%</td><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center\">80.55%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，復華投信整理。2013.3-2023.2，每月5日扣款，未列入交易及稅務成本；皆以報酬指數計算。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">分享成長紅利，現在進場正是時候</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">復華美國標普500成長ETF基金經理人吳允翔以電動車為例說明，電動車領域作為全球綠色能源和低碳經濟的重要支柱，正經歷著前所未有的發展機遇。00924的成分股包含綠色革命的龍頭股特斯拉(Tesla)，不僅業務範圍包含造車以及太陽能板，近期更在上海投資電池工廠加強儲能業務，分享綠色經濟成果。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><strong>個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">此外，隨著全球通膨壓力不斷上升，投資具有抗通膨能力的資產類別成為市場的熱門選擇。該基金成分也包含成長性好的消費品、醫療保健、科技等行業公司，尋求在通膨壓力下能維持營收及獲利的標的，期望為投資人帶來合理的投資回報。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">本益比近五年低點 投資價值浮現</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202304/2d5b5f29-7f23-4eca-bfee-e5a9dded7d6c20230419-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，復華投信整理。資料日期：2017/12/29~2022/12/30。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>隨著美國聯準會升息循環可望進入尾聲，將有助於美國成長股未來表現。復華投信建議投資人長期定時定額累積單位數，入手價格低，不僅抱得住，也才有機會掌握全球經濟復甦帶來的投資機會，透過分散投資組合風險捕抓高成長的個股，分享到成長紅利！</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我想看看最新優惠基金</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/funds/offer\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">&nbsp;</p>","summary":"投資人可直接在各大券商進行買賣交易，想要定期定額存ETF，也能透過兆豐、國泰、統一等券商長線布局","url":"","urlType":"","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202304/07eeb96e-43a9-4b6f-9fc1-37fcdba66104view-69.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"ETF精選主題,美國","postTime":"2023/04/24 17:06:14","startTime":"2023-04-24T17:06:14.1070000+08:00","status":0,"metaTitle":"","metaDescription":"","metaKeyword":"","value01":0,"value02":"","value03":"","value04":"","value05":"","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2023-07-17T11:01:37.0670000+08:00","files":"","canEdit":false,"isFund":0,"isMFund":0,"isMedia":0,"isArticle":0,"isDividend":0,"dividendType":"","dividendRoute":"","categoryGuid":"9f628fdc-5c46-49a5-b277-52e0729e7792","category":{"id":20973,"guid":"9f628fdc-5c46-49a5-b277-52e0729e7792","name":"最新消息","parentGuid":"53338b1b-120e-46bd-a7d7-d579682c4a41","route":"/services/news_list/news","routeSource":"/services/news_list.html","route01":"/services/news_list/content/news/{guid}","route01Source":"/services/content_news.html","views":"FrontE","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"最新消息","metaTitle":"最新消息｜復華投信","metaDescription":"最新共同基金、指數型基金及ETF相關訊息公告，以及復華投信給投資人的重要通知。","metaKeyword":"最新消息","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/ca3673c1-fa58-4665-a2fe-072d2a19ba01G.logo.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12373,"guid":"d352f40a-b189-47d0-8225-fc558b34aab4","name":"ETF公告","parentGuid":"3ce7b1c0-22eb-439d-a8f8-734d998b0836","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/services/news_list/content/news/11103d1d-fa71-4bea-ad29-5208a65dd078"}],"news01":[],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/ETF20.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/ETF20.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/ETF20.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"","url2":"","file01":"/docupload/download/help/K1.pdf"},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"國外股票型","isETFindex":1,"fundStatus":"2","isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":1,"isETFRule":1,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1102,"updateTime":"2025-12-22T16:06:36.5300000+08:00","guid":"457ecaee-cfdb-4fda-8ddb-04640746c534","fundID":"ETF21","twNameFull":"復華台灣科技優息ETF基金","sortValue":4,"enName":"Fuh Hwa Taiwan Technology Dividend Highlight ETF","ec002":"(基金之配息來源可能為收益平準金且本基金並無保證收益及配息)","twName":"—","pnav":"22.24","navDate":"2026/04/29","change":"-0.29","changeRange":"-1.29%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<p>一、主要投資於台灣科技產業中具有較高股息殖利率的優質股票。<br>二、追蹤指數操作，資訊相對透明。<br>三、交易方式便利且成本低廉。</p><p><span style=\"color:red;\"><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA;mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW;\"><u>提醒投資人於交易前，應了解基金特性、指數內涵、投資人應負擔之成本費用及相關投資風險等各項資訊，詳見基金公開說明書。</u></span></span></p>","ec001":3,"ec005":"2023/06/01","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"台北富邦商業銀行","ec009":"RR5","ec012":"0.30%~0.35%","ec013":"0.03%~0.0425%","ec020":"","ec022":"月配","ec024":"台灣","ec026":"","ec028":"從台灣科技相關產業之上市上櫃股票中，經過市值、流動性、股價波動、股息及穩定度、長短期本益比乖離、財務等指標篩選後，再以股息殖利率擇優選取50檔成分股並配置權重，以代表台灣科技產業中具備較佳股息收益之股票組合。","ec030":"—","ec033":"每年2次進行成分股定期審核，6月及12月第7個交易日為審核資料截止日，其後第7個交易日為審核基準日。","ec034":"<div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">&nbsp;</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">頒獎單位</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">獎項名稱</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\"><figure class=\"image\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/temp/202502/AAM-100.png\"></figure></td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Asia Asset Management</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2025年台灣最活躍ETF (Most Active ETF)<br>2024年台灣最佳新ETF (Best New ETF)<br>2024年台灣最具創新產品 (Most Innovative Product)</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\"><figure class=\"image\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/temp/202502/晨星smart-100.png\"></figure></td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">晨星暨Smart智富台灣基金獎</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2024年創新類之非債券指數股票型基金獎</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\"><figure class=\"image\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/temp/202502/25_100.png\"></figure></td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">The Asset</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2024年台灣最創新ETF (Most Innovative ETF)</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","ec036":"—","ec037":"—","ec038":"臺灣指數公司特選臺灣上市上櫃科技優息指數","ec039":"指數股票型","ec039_sort":5498,"ec040":"每月底","ec312":1,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>【註】淨收入係收入扣除該基金應負擔之費用，有關收益平準金之說明請詳閱該基金之信託契約或公開說明書。</p><p>*：係指本基金收入扣除應負擔費用(可能為負值)，包含因申購及買回產生之收益平準金，有關收益平準金之詳細說明請詳閱本基金信託契約或公開說明書。<br>**：依金融監督管理委員會112年11月13日金管證投字第1120358072號函規定，當本基金符合投信公司或金融監督管理委員會所訂之收益平準金配發標準時，方得配發收益平準金中，屬於既有投資人申贖產生之部分(即上表B2)，且不得超過法令規定之使用上限。<br>***：包含已實現及未實現的資本損益、已實現及未實現的資本損益平準金(申購及買回)。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>1. 漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，且配息型基金之漲跌幅未還原息值。</p><p>2. 本基金追蹤臺灣指數公司特選臺灣上市上櫃科技優息指數，不保證該指數績效在任何時候的表現均優於市場行情，在某些市場環境下，指數績效可能落後市值加權指數或其他績效指標，且這種情況可能持續很長一段時間。</p><p>3. 追蹤標的指數為Smart Beta指數之ETF，相較於追蹤市值加權指數之ETF，可能有相當比例持股投資於市值較小之公司。</p>","ec407":"<p>資料來源：投信投顧公會，復華投信整理<br>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示；表格所示為含息報酬率，走勢圖為不含息之績效</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec411":"","ec412":"<p>1.以上資料依據各基金信託契約相關條款之規定公告。<br>2.每現金申購/買回基數之實際申購總價金、申購總價金差額及買回總價金，以經理公司通知給付之金額為準。</p>","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"00929","etf003":"復華台灣科技優息","etf005":"IX0179","etf011":"T+3","etf012":"","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華台灣科技優息(00929)，聚焦優質科技，一起來當股市包租公｜ 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class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股近日在台積電領軍下氣勢如虹，大盤指數攻上4萬點歷史高峰，究竟這是結構虛胖，或者是台灣資金活水充沛，台灣錢淹腳目帶來的股市榮景再現？從企業獲利的基本面觀察，AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環，現階段台股評價預估仍在合理水準。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI貢獻台灣出口增長，台灣經濟成長率上修</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股今(2026)年來漲幅已將近4成，主要是由基本面所推動。根據Bloomberg統計資料，2023年下半年起，資訊通訊產品出口年增率高達50%以上，由此可見AI對台灣出口增長的貢獻。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>此外，台灣經濟成長率也頻頻上修，包括央行、主計總處、中經院、台經院等研究機構資料顯示，2026年台灣GDP成長率預期達7%以上，傲視全球。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">各機構對2026年台灣GDP成長率預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：各機構，截至2026/4/27（圖中標示期間代表公布預測值之時間）。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，企業獲利的成長性與差異，也反映在股價表現上，除了高獲利支撐較高的評價，也是市場資金熱點，而大型科技龍頭獲利增長能見度仍佳，且經常優於預期，目前市場預期到明後年，台積電EPS年增率仍有機會達20%~25%。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，台股企業獲利連續正增長期間，有機會突破過去水準，若能拉長連續獲利的期間，越有機會使台股評價上修，而台灣加權指數從2萬5漲到4萬點，幾乎都由企業獲利推動，顯示AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台股評價預估仍在合理水準</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據Bloomberg資料顯示，2026年台灣各主要產業的獲利呈現高成長，2027年電子業預估獲利年成長達20%~40%，將可望支撐評價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/24。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，台灣股市的國際地位提升，想要參與AI與半導體投資，全球資金就該來台股市場尋寶。AI帶來的高成長仍在進行中，除了大量的基礎建設與算力需求，還有更先進的技術與產品規格。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>舉例來說， AI從訓練走向推論與應用，所需的資料中心成長更為快速，而台灣AI供應鏈的優勢，在於能快速與有效解決問題、滿足客戶需求，AI大趨勢將可望提供台灣超越亞洲國家的成長機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">全球市值前十大的股市與公司</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2026/4/24。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>＊2026/4/27台灣加權指數盤中高點為40,194點，為首次觸及四萬點。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/download/20260428.pdf\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\">了解更多並下載報告</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI為台灣相關企業獲利，帶來20%、40%、甚至60%以上的年成長率，台灣供應鏈的優勢，在於設計與應變的能力與速度及客戶的緊密合作。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/809318f2-bd33-4aed-a8e4-b9bf879b3b50view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣,全球","postTime":"2026/04/29 10:18:03","startTime":"2026-04-29T10:16:06.7200000+08:00","metaTitle":"台灣加權指數四萬點，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-29T10:48:29.9500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1"},{"id":3063,"guid":"a65c3591-e426-43da-8570-1a02f6fd2635","articleCategory":"配息公告","title":"【115年03月份收益分配金額公告】復華台灣科技優息ETF基金","contents":"","summary":"復華台灣科技優息ETF基金115年03月份收益分配金額公告相關事宜，請點選下表各基金之「檔案下載」觀看詳細公告內容：","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"","postTime":"2026/04/17 13:48:43","startTime":"2026-04-17T13:48:43.2870000+08:00","metaTitle":"復華台灣科技優息ETF基金115年03月份收益分配金額公告 | 復華投信","metaDescription":"最新共同基金、指數型基金及ETF相關訊息公告，以及復華投信給投資人的重要通知。","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-17T13:54:23.0900000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":1,"dividendType":"2","dividendRoute":"202603","categoryGuid":"cf878d00-aac3-4c90-acde-7e9f83afc059","category":{"id":20974,"guid":"cf878d00-aac3-4c90-acde-7e9f83afc059","name":"配息公告","parentGuid":"53338b1b-120e-46bd-a7d7-d579682c4a41","route":"/services/news_list/annoucement","routeSource":"/services/news_list.html","route01":"/services/news_list/content/annoucement/{guid}","route01Source":"/services/interest_news.html","views":"","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"配息公告","metaTitle":"配息公告｜復華投信","metaDescription":"最新共同基金、指數型基金及ETF相關訊息公告，以及復華投信給投資人的重要通知。","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/58b14aec-4840-401b-9739-85e878ddf642G.logo.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"articleCategorys":{"id":12326,"guid":"c9a9697c-c933-467e-80e9-e72c5faad797","name":"配息公告","parentGuid":"3c02dcc3-6a5a-4c94-ab84-0b3aebd55b8f","description":"配息公告敘述","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/services/news_list/content/annoucement/a65c3591-e426-43da-8570-1a02f6fd2635"}],"news01":[{"id":3072,"guid":"429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"台灣加權指數四萬點*，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股近日在台積電領軍下氣勢如虹，大盤指數攻上4萬點歷史高峰，究竟這是結構虛胖，或者是台灣資金活水充沛，台灣錢淹腳目帶來的股市榮景再現？從企業獲利的基本面觀察，AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環，現階段台股評價預估仍在合理水準。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI貢獻台灣出口增長，台灣經濟成長率上修</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股今(2026)年來漲幅已將近4成，主要是由基本面所推動。根據Bloomberg統計資料，2023年下半年起，資訊通訊產品出口年增率高達50%以上，由此可見AI對台灣出口增長的貢獻。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>此外，台灣經濟成長率也頻頻上修，包括央行、主計總處、中經院、台經院等研究機構資料顯示，2026年台灣GDP成長率預期達7%以上，傲視全球。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">各機構對2026年台灣GDP成長率預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：各機構，截至2026/4/27（圖中標示期間代表公布預測值之時間）。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，企業獲利的成長性與差異，也反映在股價表現上，除了高獲利支撐較高的評價，也是市場資金熱點，而大型科技龍頭獲利增長能見度仍佳，且經常優於預期，目前市場預期到明後年，台積電EPS年增率仍有機會達20%~25%。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，台股企業獲利連續正增長期間，有機會突破過去水準，若能拉長連續獲利的期間，越有機會使台股評價上修，而台灣加權指數從2萬5漲到4萬點，幾乎都由企業獲利推動，顯示AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台股評價預估仍在合理水準</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據Bloomberg資料顯示，2026年台灣各主要產業的獲利呈現高成長，2027年電子業預估獲利年成長達20%~40%，將可望支撐評價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/24。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，台灣股市的國際地位提升，想要參與AI與半導體投資，全球資金就該來台股市場尋寶。AI帶來的高成長仍在進行中，除了大量的基礎建設與算力需求，還有更先進的技術與產品規格。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>舉例來說， AI從訓練走向推論與應用，所需的資料中心成長更為快速，而台灣AI供應鏈的優勢，在於能快速與有效解決問題、滿足客戶需求，AI大趨勢將可望提供台灣超越亞洲國家的成長機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">全球市值前十大的股市與公司</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2026/4/24。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>＊2026/4/27台灣加權指數盤中高點為40,194點，為首次觸及四萬點。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/download/20260428.pdf\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\">了解更多並下載報告</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI為台灣相關企業獲利，帶來20%、40%、甚至60%以上的年成長率，台灣供應鏈的優勢，在於設計與應變的能力與速度及客戶的緊密合作。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/809318f2-bd33-4aed-a8e4-b9bf879b3b50view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣,全球","postTime":"2026/04/29 10:18:03","startTime":"2026-04-29T10:16:06.7200000+08:00","metaTitle":"台灣加權指數四萬點，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-29T10:48:29.9500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/ETF21.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/ETF21.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/ETF21.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"","url2":"","file01":"/docupload/download/help/K1.pdf"},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"國內股票型","isETFindex":1,"fundStatus":"2","isCustomIndex":1,"isETFIndexRebalance":1,"isETFRule":1,"isETFRegulation":1,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1108,"updateTime":"2025-12-19T10:42:06.9100000+08:00","guid":"73d67723-fe3d-45cd-bbd4-2082955af868","fundID":"ETF22","twNameFull":"復華日本護城河優勢龍頭企業ETF基金","sortValue":3,"enName":"Fuh Hwa Japan Global Moat Leaders ETF","ec002":"","twName":"—","pnav":"19.37","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"0.18","changeRange":"0.94%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<p>市場第一檔以巴菲特護城河投資理念進行選股的日本ETF，選取日本最具有全球競爭力的大型產業龍頭股，涵蓋日本所有投資主題，包括優勢製造業、日本商社、關鍵半導體和娛樂消費業。</p><p><span style=\"color:red;\"><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA;mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW;\"><u>提醒投資人於交易前，應了解基金特性、指數內涵、投資人應負擔之成本費用及相關投資風險等各項資訊，詳見基金公開說明書。</u></span></span></p>","ec001":3,"ec005":"2024/06/20","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"第一商業銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"0.55%~0.60%","ec013":"0.12%~0.15%","ec020":"","ec022":"年配","ec024":"單一國家","ec026":"","ec028":"NYSE FactSet 日本護城河優勢龍頭企業指數(NYSE FactSet Japan Global Moat Leaders Index)是由東京證交所掛牌股票，經市值與流動性篩選後，以基本面指標包括產業市佔率、資本投入現金流回報率、EBIT成長率，以及海外競爭力指標包括海外營收與客戶數量比重，篩選出具有護城河優勢與全球競爭力的日本大型產業龍頭股。指數藉由定期審核通過篩選標準的股票，建構投資組合以獲取優於大盤的長期報酬率。","ec030":"—","ec033":"每年一次","ec034":"<div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">&nbsp;</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">頒獎單位</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">獎項名稱</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\"><figure class=\"image\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/temp/202502/25_100.png\"></figure></td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">The Asset Triple A Awards</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2025年最佳創新ETF獎 (Most Innovative ETF)</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","ec036":"—","ec037":"—","ec038":"NYSE FactSet 日本護城河優勢龍頭企業指數","ec039":"指數股票型","ec039_sort":5498,"ec040":"每年10月底","ec312":1,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，且配息型基金之漲跌幅未還原息值</p>","ec407":"<p>資料來源：投信投顧公會，復華投信整理&nbsp;<br>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示；表格所示為含息報酬率，走勢圖為不含息之績效</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec411":"","ec412":"<p>1.以上資料依據各基金信託契約相關條款之規定公告。&nbsp;<br>2.每現金申購/買回基數之實際申購總價金、申購總價金差額及買回總價金，以經理公司通知給付之金額為準。</p>","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"00949","etf003":"復華日本龍頭","etf005":"NYFSJML","etf011":"T+6","etf012":"","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"00949復華日本護城河優勢龍頭企業ETF基金","metaDescription":"市場第一檔以巴菲特護城河投資理念進行選股的日本ETF，選取日本最具有全球競爭力的大型產業龍頭股，涵蓋日本所有投資主題，包括優勢製造業、日本商社、關鍵半導體和娛樂消費業。","prepayRate":"110%","listDate":"2024/07/01","isAssets":"2","issueUnit":"50","brokerList_PD":"元大證券股份有限公司、凱基證券股份有限公司、永豐金證券股份有限公司、群益金鼎證券股份有限公司、台新綜合證券股份有限公司","brokerList_LP":"元大證券股份有限公司、凱基證券股份有限公司、永豐金證券股份有限公司、群益金鼎證券股份有限公司、台新綜合證券股份有限公司","f_DisEqual":"","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"存股族最愛","roi3m":"1.96%","roi6m":"7.41%","roi1y":"17.40%","roi2y":"0.00%","roi3y":"0.00%","roiLaunch":"24.60%","roiY2D":"1.96%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"劉昌祚","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":2902,"guid":"bd69aa3a-5289-44e2-ba34-e63e4ece8ad5","articleCategory":"配息公告","title":"復華日本護城河優勢龍頭企業ETF基金114年度收益不予分配事宜公告","contents":"","summary":"復華日本護城河優勢龍頭企業ETF基金114年度收益不予分配事宜，請點選基金之「檔案下載」觀看詳細公告內容：","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"","postTime":"2025/11/03 16:29:48","startTime":"2025-11-03T16:29:48.4300000+08:00","metaTitle":"復華日本護城河優勢龍頭企業ETF基金114年度收益不予分配事宜公告 | 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class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">焦點話題：走出失落三十年，日本股市迎來長期多頭趨勢？</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">過去兩年日本股市強勁上漲，並在全球股市中脫穎而出。2023年日經225指數上漲28%，漲幅遠超過美國標普500指數的18%、MSCI新興市場指數的3%、甚至是台股的26%。2024年以來，日經225指數持續上漲、3/22收盤來到40,888點，成功改寫泡沫經濟時期的歷史新高，截至4/30日經225指數上漲15.06%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">目前日本股市是處在高點，抑或僅是長期多頭趨勢的起點？ 讓我們根據以下幾點進行分析。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖一：日經225指數(不含息)走勢圖</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202406/20240604-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，1970/1/1~2024/4/30。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content-7\"><div class=\"indent-content-7-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-7-title-intro text-9-medium color-white flex align-items-center\"><img class=\"indent-content-7-title-deco\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/white/1.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"indent-content-7-title-main text-9-medium\">薪資提升及負利率政策結束帶動內需，日本經濟重啟正循環</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-7-detail text-9-light\">日本在1990年代經濟泡沫破滅後，經歷了低通膨、低成長的「失落三十年」。不過，在過去三年的疫情及地緣政治緊張帶來的全球供應鏈衝擊下，日本通膨率回升至2%以上，長期通貨緊縮帶來的經濟負向循環被打破。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>&nbsp;</div><div class=\"indent-content-7-detail text-9-light\">今年3月工會團體在「春鬥」（日本每年一度的勞資談判）中，成功爭取企業平均加薪5.28%，幅度遠高於去年的3.8%、達到1991年以來最大的調薪幅度(圖二)；同時，日本央行在今年3/19取消負利率政策，除了顯示日本經濟重新步入正軌外，亦有利於家戶利息收入的提升。上述發展將令國民收入提高，進而推動民間消費復甦、企業獲利改善，並且可望進一步增加就業機會及薪資增長，令經濟形成長期增長的正向循環(圖三)。</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖二、日本春鬥薪資金額年增率(%)</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202406/20240604-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：JILPT，1994~2024。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖三、日本經濟正向循環示意圖</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202406/20240604-2-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：復華投信整理，圖片來源為PNGTREE。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content-7\"><div class=\"indent-content-7-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-7-title-intro text-9-medium color-white flex align-items-center\"><img class=\"indent-content-7-title-deco\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/white/2.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"indent-content-7-title-main text-9-medium\">去全球化趨勢及弱勢日幣，促使日本製造業回流</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-7-detail text-9-light\">新冠肺炎疫情、美中地緣政治緊張等引發供應鏈混亂，使「去全球化」聲浪湧現，加上近年日本持續維持寬鬆貨幣政策，令日圓持續貶值、出口競爭力提升，在此背景下，日本製造業逐漸興起了一波「回歸的暖流」。自2023年起，日本包含Toyota、Panasonic等國際知名大廠皆宣布回日設廠計畫。截至2023年底，日本企業國內設備投資金額年增率達到31.6%(圖四)，顯示這波日企回歸的大趨勢已形成。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>&nbsp;</div><div class=\"indent-content-7-detail text-9-light\">於此同時，地緣政治的緊張及AI的軍備競賽，也促使日本、美國、台灣和南韓共同組成了晶片四方聯盟(圖五)，以應對中國的挑戰。透過成員國之間的合作，有助於半導體供應鏈的穩定發展，並獲得技術創新和市場擴展的機會。例如，提供多項補貼，支持晶片生產和AI技術發展，其中便包含補助台積電興建熊本廠，該廠的運營不僅促進了當地的物價、房價和薪資上漲，也為日本半導體產業帶來了內部成長動能的復甦。</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖四、日本企業國內設備投資金額年增率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202406/20240604-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：日本經濟產業省，2023年。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖五、美國主導成立半導體四方聯盟示意圖</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202406/20240604-3-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：復華投信整理，圖片來源為 flaticon。註：Chip 4為半導體四方聯盟，包含美國、日本、台灣、韓國。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content-7\"><div class=\"indent-content-7-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-7-title-intro text-9-medium color-white flex align-items-center\"><img class=\"indent-content-7-title-deco\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/white/3.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"indent-content-7-title-main text-9-medium\">公司治理改革和政策助攻，吸引內、外資回流日股</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-7-detail text-9-light\">過去日本企業忽略股東權益、補貼部門和少裁員的現象使得企業價值長期偏低，根據統計(2023/12)日本上市公司股價淨值比（P/B Ratio)小於1的比例高達50%，相較之下美股僅約4%。不過，隨著日本公司治理改革和政策助攻，長期低評價的日股可望迎來轉機。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>&nbsp;</div><div class=\"indent-content-7-detail text-9-light\">2023年初東京證券交易所祭出政策，要求股價淨值比低於1倍的公司提出改善計畫。這些公司需在2026年前將市值提升到100億日圓，並將股價淨值比提高到1倍以上，否則將面臨被強制下市的風險。為因應改革政策，日本企業透過增加股利發放、加大股票回購等方式以提高股價淨值比。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>&nbsp;</div><div class=\"indent-content-7-detail text-9-light\">另外，近年來日本企業逐漸改變長期採用的終身雇用制，改依職務所需及人才的專業能力進行雇用，進而提升企業競爭力。在積極回饋股東以及經營效率改善之下，使日本股市更具投資吸引力，今年截至5月3日，外資淨流入金額已達到320億美金、超過2023年整年。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖六、日股外資買賣超金額(億美元)</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202406/20240604-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2014/1/1~2024/5/3。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content-7\"><div class=\"indent-content-7-detail text-9-light\">除此之外，日本家庭儲蓄風氣盛行，日本家戶資產配置的現金占比高達55%，在股市的投資比例僅約11%，遠低於美國的40%(圖七)。為了提高國民投資股票的比重，日本政府宣布從今（2024）年起，提高個人儲蓄帳戶（NISA）的永久免稅投資額上限，從每年120萬日圓增加到360萬日圓，且免稅期間亦從五年免稅期改為永久免稅，鼓勵民眾以投資代替儲蓄。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>&nbsp;</div><div class=\"indent-content-7-detail text-9-light\">預期此項政策將吸引更多內部資金進入股市，以目前日本國人持有的現金餘額超過1,000兆日圓的情況下，若是10%投入股市，將為日本股市注入100兆日圓、約當日經225指數市值14%的資金活水，帶來嶄新的活力。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖七、日本與美國家戶資產配置比例情形</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202406/20240604-5.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bridgewater，JPMAM，復華投信整理。資料日期：2023/12。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content-7\"><div class=\"indent-content-7-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-7-title-intro text-9-medium color-white flex align-items-center\"><img class=\"indent-content-7-title-deco\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/white/4.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"indent-content-7-title-main text-9-medium\">走出失落三十年，日本股市可望迎來長期多頭趨勢</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-7-detail text-9-light\">總結來說，日本正逐漸從通縮走向薪資與物價齊漲的良性通膨，而國際情勢及日圓貶值也加速日本企業的投資回流，加上日本政府破釜沉舟式的政策調整、結構性改革及投資市場活絡的刺激，日本經濟及股市可望走出失落三十年，迎來長期多頭趨勢。</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">金融市場短期震盪但後市仍可期，建議維持偏多配置</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">資產配置部分，金融市場第二季以來因漲多及地緣政治風險升溫呈現震盪，儘管近期美國通膨降溫進程暫時陷入停滯，但隨著勞動市場逐步供需平衡、薪資增速放緩，後續可望壓低服務業通膨，聯準會貨幣政策的下一步仍是降息，且企業獲利成長動能持續加速，股市中期多頭趨勢不變，故建議維持偏多配置，逢低增持風險性資產，並持續觀察經濟前景與聯準會貨幣政策態度變化。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">主要股債市展望及說明</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">已開發股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">今年以來美國景氣與通膨增速高於預期， Fed降息時點較年初預期延後，但隨勞動市場逐步供需平衡、薪資增速放緩，聯準會仍有降息空間。股市近期修正多來自評價調整，企業獲利預估增速仍持續向上，市場情緒雖仍略為過熱但未達極端水準，股市短期可能面臨調整，但中期多頭趨勢不變。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">新興股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">中國景氣增速觸底回升，台灣、韓國則受惠半導體景氣向上，目前整體新興股市本益比仍低於已開發市場，有利新興股市走高。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">信用債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">今年以來，Fed降息時點一再推遲，美國公債殖利率維持震盪走勢，信用利差處在相對低位，信用債的資本利得空間暫時有限；不過，當前信用債殖利率約7~8%、仍處在歷史相對高位，預期較高的殖利率水準將支撐信用債基金總報酬表現。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">投資等級債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">全球貨幣政策週期已逐步轉向降息，但實際降息時點將取決於各國的經濟狀況。今年以來，美國通膨降溫速度不如預期，令Fed降息時點一再推遲，但貨幣政策往放鬆邁進的大方向未改，長線仍將有助於利率風險下降、提振投資等級債基金表現。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">商品市場</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">整體中東地緣政治情勢並無顯著改善，將使能源風險溢價居高不下，加上歐美景氣仍維持穩健、新興市場景氣觸底回升，以及全球貨幣政策週期轉向降息的大方向，有利於整體商品市場需求穩定增長，支持原物料價格震盪向上。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>「本資料僅供參考，不代表投資績效之保證。投資人申購基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不代表基金之績效，基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。」</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/event/EC/2024_00949/index.html\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/book.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\">立刻了解更多</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p></div></div></div>","summary":"近兩年日本股市強勁上漲，並在全球股市中脫穎而出，而展望後市，隨著日本正逐漸走向薪資與物價齊漲的良性通膨，國際情勢及日圓貶值也加速日本企業的投資回流，加上日本政府破釜沉舟式的政策調整、結構性改革及投資市場活絡的刺激，日本經濟及股市可望走出失落三十年，迎來長期多頭趨勢。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202406/view-106.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"日本,ETF精選主題,股票","postTime":"2024/06/04 08:56:41","startTime":"2024-06-04T08:56:41.4470000+08:00","metaTitle":"走出失落三十年，日本股市迎來長期多頭趨勢｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2024-06-05T16:42:02.2700000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/2b8d597c-95b5-407b-8b52-a192f715b59c"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/ETF22.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/ETF22.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/ETF22.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"","url2":"","file01":"/docupload/download/help/K1.pdf"},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"國外股票型","isETFindex":1,"fundStatus":"2","isCustomIndex":1,"isETFIndexRebalance":1,"isETFRule":1,"isETFRegulation":1,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1112,"updateTime":"2026-03-19T19:03:01.1370000+08:00","guid":"83cf2ef5-68a2-4ab2-a197-e39ad6020656","fundID":"ETF25","twNameFull":"復華全球金融債券入息主動式ETF基金","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh 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漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，且配息型基金之漲跌幅未還原息值。</p>","ec407":"<p>資料來源：投信投顧公會，復華投信整理&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示；表格所示為含息報酬率，走勢圖為不含息之績效</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec411":"","ec412":"<p>1.以上資料依據各基金信託契約相關條款之規定公告。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>2.每現金申購/買回基數之實際申購總價金、申購總價金差額及買回總價金，以經理公司通知給付之金額為準。</p>","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"00986D","etf003":"主動復華金融債息","etf005":"—","etf011":"T+6","etf012":"","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"00986D復華全球金融債券入息主動式ETF基金(本基金有一定比重得投資於非投資等級之高風險債券且本基金並無保證收益及配息)","metaDescription":"一、以全球金融相關產業之債券為主要布局，追求長期之收益分配機會。\n二、投資人可於證券市場以市價交易主動式ETF，交易方式便利。","prepayRate":"105%","listDate":"2026/04/15","isAssets":"2","issueUnit":"50","brokerList_PD":"元大證券股份有限公司、凱基證券股份有限公司、兆豐證券股份有限公司、統一綜合證券股份有限公司、台新綜合證券股份有限公司、中國信託綜合證券股份有限公司","brokerList_LP":"元大證券股份有限公司、凱基證券股份有限公司、台新綜合證券股份有限公司、中國信託綜合證券股份有限公司","f_DisEqual":"","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"存債首選,主動式ETF","roi3m":"—","roi6m":"—","roi1y":"—","roi2y":"—","roi3y":"—","roiLaunch":"—","roiY2D":"—","ddate":"—","showmsg":"","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"黃媛君","isShow":0,"experience":"<p>黃媛君經理人的簡介</p>"}],"manager01":[{"name":"黃凱偉","isShow":0,"experience":""},{"name":"李彥陞","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"news":[{"id":3061,"guid":"ef6c11b2-18a4-477d-bae0-17e8558c5ee1","articleCategory":"理財觀念","title":"【00998A、00986D掛牌上市】國內首檔主動式金融股債ETF，投資「鑫」選擇","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">國內首檔主動式金融股債ETF-復華金融股債雙收傘型基金，已於3/31成立、4/15正式在櫃買中心掛牌交易，提供投資人參與海外趨勢產業投資「鑫」選擇！</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">復華金融股債雙收傘型基金小檔案</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">簡稱代號</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">主動復華金融股息(00998A) <strong>(基金之配息來源可能為收益平準金且本基金並無保證收益及配息)</strong></td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">主動復華金融債息(00986D)　<strong>(本基金有一定比重得投資於非投資等級之高風險債券且本基金並無保證收益及配息)</strong></td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">發行價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">新臺幣15元</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">新臺幣15元</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">收益分配</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">自本基金成立日起60日後，每季評估配息<strong>(配息來源包含股息、資本利得及收益平準金等)</strong></td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">自本基金成立日起60日後，每月評估配息<strong>(配息來源包含債息、資本利得等)</strong></td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">投資情形</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">1.以歐洲金融股為核心，符合原規劃&nbsp;<br>2.擇優佈局日本及美國等其他金融股&nbsp;<br>3.佈局期間搭配期貨增益，因應掛牌後可能的流動性需求</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">1.以已開發國家金融債為核心配置，符合原規劃&nbsp;<br>2.搭配其他債券增進收益機會&nbsp;<br>3.因應近期匯率變動，透過台幣NDF進行部分匯率避險</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：復華投信官網。本基金持股之股息配發時間及金額，視個別公司而定；本基金將累積之股息等收入於每季做成收益分配決定；為了改善因申購造成的稀釋問題，配息來源可能為收益平準金；如已實現資本利得扣除資本損失(包括已實現及未實現資本損失)及應負擔之成本費用後為正數，亦得評估分配。經理公司得依基金收益情形，自行決定應分配之金額或不分配，故每次分配之金額並非一定相同。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">經理人市場展望</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美伊戰事推升油價，各國央行將審慎觀察此對通膨的影響性與持續性。目前美國聯準會暫時觀望，但不至於轉向升息，仍有降息可能；歐洲降息循環結束，後續視食品與能源價格變化及對民生消費與工資價格的影響；日本處於溫和的升息趨勢。&nbsp;<br><br>在此環境下，預期短期內利率仍偏高，有助於銀行的利差收益。整體而言，<strong>金融股的本益比評價經過明顯修正後，提供佈局良機，而全球財富的長期累積以及金融監管逐步放鬆，將是金融業獲利成長的基石</strong>。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/check.svg\" alt=\"\">MSCI全球金融指數的預估EPS及本益比</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260415-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2026/4/10。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">每當金融市場波動上升、美國十年期公債殖利率上行至相對高位時，川普的強硬態度便有可能放軟；本次歷經3月份美債殖利率反彈與風險情緒惡化後，也見到美伊雙方協商的可能。&nbsp;<br><br>如今聯準會觀望戰事影響，<strong>市場卻已過度擔憂升息風險，利率上行風險有限，基金於3月底至4月上旬布局，應屬良好的投資時機，尤其金融監管鬆綁有助提升銀行獲利與競爭力，金融債基本面具支撐</strong>。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/check.svg\" alt=\"\">2025/1/20川普上任以來，美國十年公債殖利率走勢</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260415-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg、Fed、復華投信整理，截至2026/4/10。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"若您滿手AI科技股票，需要金融股票、債券的平衡配置，或者您是存股族、收息族，現在只要擁有台股交易帳戶，便可透過券商、APP、下單軟體進場布局","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-110.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"全球,金融","postTime":"2026/04/15 10:17:44","startTime":"2026-04-15T10:17:44.7170000+08:00","metaTitle":"【00998A、00986D掛牌上市】國內首檔主動式金融股債ETF，投資「鑫」選擇｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-15T10:23:53.7270000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"591827f3-069c-4c4c-8ab8-0797694614af","category":{"id":20969,"guid":"591827f3-069c-4c4c-8ab8-0797694614af","name":"理財觀念","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/inv-activity","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/inv-activity/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"投資脈動","metaTitle":"理財觀念｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/36d97bc5-1a4c-4c5a-a8df-267460a8f4b5B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12357,"guid":"f8810b16-51fb-4aca-a40e-ecea20f2ca9e","name":"理財觀念","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/inv-activity/ef6c11b2-18a4-477d-bae0-17e8558c5ee1"}],"news01":[{"id":3061,"guid":"ef6c11b2-18a4-477d-bae0-17e8558c5ee1","articleCategory":"理財觀念","title":"【00998A、00986D掛牌上市】國內首檔主動式金融股債ETF，投資「鑫」選擇","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">國內首檔主動式金融股債ETF-復華金融股債雙收傘型基金，已於3/31成立、4/15正式在櫃買中心掛牌交易，提供投資人參與海外趨勢產業投資「鑫」選擇！</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">復華金融股債雙收傘型基金小檔案</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">簡稱代號</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">主動復華金融股息(00998A) <strong>(基金之配息來源可能為收益平準金且本基金並無保證收益及配息)</strong></td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">主動復華金融債息(00986D)　<strong>(本基金有一定比重得投資於非投資等級之高風險債券且本基金並無保證收益及配息)</strong></td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">發行價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">新臺幣15元</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">新臺幣15元</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">收益分配</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">自本基金成立日起60日後，每季評估配息<strong>(配息來源包含股息、資本利得及收益平準金等)</strong></td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">自本基金成立日起60日後，每月評估配息<strong>(配息來源包含債息、資本利得等)</strong></td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">投資情形</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">1.以歐洲金融股為核心，符合原規劃&nbsp;<br>2.擇優佈局日本及美國等其他金融股&nbsp;<br>3.佈局期間搭配期貨增益，因應掛牌後可能的流動性需求</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">1.以已開發國家金融債為核心配置，符合原規劃&nbsp;<br>2.搭配其他債券增進收益機會&nbsp;<br>3.因應近期匯率變動，透過台幣NDF進行部分匯率避險</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：復華投信官網。本基金持股之股息配發時間及金額，視個別公司而定；本基金將累積之股息等收入於每季做成收益分配決定；為了改善因申購造成的稀釋問題，配息來源可能為收益平準金；如已實現資本利得扣除資本損失(包括已實現及未實現資本損失)及應負擔之成本費用後為正數，亦得評估分配。經理公司得依基金收益情形，自行決定應分配之金額或不分配，故每次分配之金額並非一定相同。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">經理人市場展望</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美伊戰事推升油價，各國央行將審慎觀察此對通膨的影響性與持續性。目前美國聯準會暫時觀望，但不至於轉向升息，仍有降息可能；歐洲降息循環結束，後續視食品與能源價格變化及對民生消費與工資價格的影響；日本處於溫和的升息趨勢。&nbsp;<br><br>在此環境下，預期短期內利率仍偏高，有助於銀行的利差收益。整體而言，<strong>金融股的本益比評價經過明顯修正後，提供佈局良機，而全球財富的長期累積以及金融監管逐步放鬆，將是金融業獲利成長的基石</strong>。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/check.svg\" alt=\"\">MSCI全球金融指數的預估EPS及本益比</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260415-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2026/4/10。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">每當金融市場波動上升、美國十年期公債殖利率上行至相對高位時，川普的強硬態度便有可能放軟；本次歷經3月份美債殖利率反彈與風險情緒惡化後，也見到美伊雙方協商的可能。&nbsp;<br><br>如今聯準會觀望戰事影響，<strong>市場卻已過度擔憂升息風險，利率上行風險有限，基金於3月底至4月上旬布局，應屬良好的投資時機，尤其金融監管鬆綁有助提升銀行獲利與競爭力，金融債基本面具支撐</strong>。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/check.svg\" alt=\"\">2025/1/20川普上任以來，美國十年公債殖利率走勢</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260415-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg、Fed、復華投信整理，截至2026/4/10。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"若您滿手AI科技股票，需要金融股票、債券的平衡配置，或者您是存股族、收息族，現在只要擁有台股交易帳戶，便可透過券商、APP、下單軟體進場布局","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-110.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"全球,金融","postTime":"2026/04/15 10:17:44","startTime":"2026-04-15T10:17:44.7170000+08:00","metaTitle":"【00998A、00986D掛牌上市】國內首檔主動式金融股債ETF，投資「鑫」選擇｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-15T10:23:53.7270000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"591827f3-069c-4c4c-8ab8-0797694614af","category":{"id":20969,"guid":"591827f3-069c-4c4c-8ab8-0797694614af","name":"理財觀念","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/inv-activity","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/inv-activity/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"投資脈動","metaTitle":"理財觀念｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/36d97bc5-1a4c-4c5a-a8df-267460a8f4b5B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12357,"guid":"f8810b16-51fb-4aca-a40e-ecea20f2ca9e","name":"理財觀念","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/inv-activity/ef6c11b2-18a4-477d-bae0-17e8558c5ee1"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/ETF25.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/ETF25.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/ETF25.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"","url2":"","file01":"/docupload/download/help/K1.pdf"},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"主動式ETF","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"1","isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1110,"updateTime":"2026-02-24T15:52:58.3470000+08:00","guid":"dc246b1c-42f7-4e35-a4ce-7ac3927f5bd9","fundID":"ETF23","twNameFull":"復華台灣未來50主動式ETF基金","sortValue":6,"enName":"Fuh Hwa Taiwan Future 50 Active ETF","ec002":"(基金之配息來源可能為收益平準金)","twName":"—","pnav":"16.68","navDate":"2026/04/29","change":"0.08","changeRange":"0.48%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<p>一、主要投資於市值較大、具增強潛力而使未來市值排名有望居前之國內股票，並以持有50檔股票為原則。&nbsp;<br>二、投資人可於證券市場以市價交易主動式ETF，交易方式便利。</p><p><span style=\"color:red;\"><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA;mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW;\"><u>提醒投資人於交易前，應了解基金特性、投資人應負擔之成本費用及相關投資風險等各項資訊，詳見基金公開說明書。</u></span></span></p>","ec001":3,"ec005":"2025/12/09","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"第一商業銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"最高為1.00%","ec013":"最高為0.040%","ec020":"","ec022":"半年配","ec024":"台灣","ec026":"","ec030":"—","ec034":"","ec036":"—","ec037":"—","ec038":"—","ec039":"主動式ETF","ec039_sort":5502,"ec040":"基金成立滿180天後，每年6、12月底","ec312":1,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>【註】淨收入係收入扣除該基金應負擔之費用，有關收益平準金之說明請詳閱該基金之信託契約或公開說明書。</p><p>*：係指本基金收入扣除應負擔費用(可能為負值)，包含因申購及買回產生之收益平準金，有關收益平準金之詳細說明請詳閱本基金信託契約或公開說明書。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>**：依金融監督管理委員會112年11月13日金管證投字第1120358072號函規定，當本基金符合投信公司或金融監督管理委員會所訂之收益平準金配發標準時，方得配發收益平準金中，屬於既有投資人申贖產生之部分(即上表B2)，且不得超過法令規定之使用上限。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>***：包含已實現及未實現的資本損益、已實現及未實現的資本損益平準金(申購及買回)。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>※ 漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，且配息型基金之漲跌幅未還原息值。</p>","ec407":"<p>資料來源：投信投顧公會，復華投信整理&nbsp;<br>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示；表格所示為含息報酬率，走勢圖為不含息之績效</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec411":"","ec412":"<p>1.以上資料依據各基金信託契約相關條款之規定公告。&nbsp;<br>2.每現金申購/買回基數之實際申購總價金、申購總價金差額及買回總價金，以經理公司通知給付之金額為準。</p>","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"00991A","etf003":"主動復華未來50","etf005":"—","etf011":"T+3","etf012":"","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"00991A主動復華未來50(基金之配息來源可能為收益平準金)","metaDescription":"一、主要投資於市值較大、具增強潛力而使未來市值排名有望居前之國內股票，並以持有50檔股票為原則。 \n二、投資人可於證券市場以市價交易主動式ETF，交易方式便利。","prepayRate":"110%","listDate":"2025/12/18","isAssets":"2","issueUnit":"50","brokerList_PD":"元大證券股份有限公司、凱基證券股份有限公司、永豐金證券股份有限公司、群益金鼎證券股份有限公司、富邦綜合證券股份有限公司、統一綜合證券股份有限公司、台新綜合證券股份有限公司","brokerList_LP":"元大證券股份有限公司、永豐金證券股份有限公司、台新綜合證券股份有限公司","f_DisEqual":"Y","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"存股族最愛,主動式ETF","roi3m":"—","roi6m":"—","roi1y":"—","roi2y":"—","roi3y":"—","roiLaunch":"—","roiY2D":"—","ddate":"—","showmsg":"","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"呂宏宇","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[{"name":"薛皓謙","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"news":[{"id":3057,"guid":"f52146d1-e354-4225-bdb2-c22b8033a913","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"AI代理時代開啟，台灣供應鏈中長期趨勢正向","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">今(2026)年以來台股在全球股市中表現相對佳，儘管近期有戰事干擾，以及清明節前出現賣壓，但節後台股強勢反彈，展現出台股的韌性。其中，AI仍是台股最強的護城河！</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI應用場景由雲端延伸至邊緣運算，AI規格更升級</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">3月份輝達GTC大會釋出新一代應用方向，供應鏈已進入升級循環；在此趨勢下，台廠憑藉技術與產能優勢，持續受惠成長紅利。<br><br>另觀察台灣加權指數結構，前十大權值股中約有55%(占指數市值*)直接受惠於AI成長動能，有助於指數呈現易漲難跌的格局。若戰爭不確定性逐步消化，市場風險偏好可望回溫，台股仍有機會延續創高動能。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">展望後市，台股短期雖因戰況不明而震盪，但中長期基本面依然強韌</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">AI 進入代理時代</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">Nvidia 發表新一代晶片，並強調 AI 代理時代來臨，模型已從訓練驅動轉向推論驅動。意味著伺服器、散熱、高階連接器等零組件的規格升級將持續加速，對台灣硬體供應鏈有利。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">記憶體展望</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">記憶體族群在短期漲多後受消息面影響（如 Google 新壓縮技術傳聞）而技術性回檔，但長期而言，AI 資料中心對高頻寬記憶體（HBM）與大容量儲存的需求仍大幅成長，結構性缺貨並未改變。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">核心布局策略</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">仍鎖定在 AI 規格提升的實質受惠者（如先進封裝設備、高速傳輸、散熱），以及具備缺貨與漲價潛力的族群。後續待地緣政治干擾減弱，具備技術優勢的相關個股應仍具反彈機會。</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>*資料來源：臺灣證券交易所，2026/4/2。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI發展由訓練進入推論階段，貢獻企業獲利成長動能強勁、台股維持合理評價，短期雖有震盪但長多趨勢不變。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-64.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣","postTime":"2026/04/10 13:46:36","startTime":"2026-04-10T13:46:36.7570000+08:00","metaTitle":"AI代理時代開啟，台灣供應鏈中長期趨勢正向｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-10T13:50:16.2070000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/f52146d1-e354-4225-bdb2-c22b8033a913"},{"id":3021,"guid":"f962bee6-075a-4589-a7c4-331b7adef8d5","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"地緣局勢短期震盪，不改台股長線成長軌道","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國及以色列對伊朗發動軍事行動，全球能源價格短暫走高，避險情緒升溫。雖然地緣政治引發短期市場波動，但預期台股在消化消息面的衝擊後，將重新回歸成長軌道。 目前的關鍵觀察點在於：衝突是否演變成「持久戰 」，以及高檔油價若維持過久是否導致通膨失控。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">【產業配置分析】聚焦半導體、記憶體與載板</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>針對近期局勢本基金操作策略無重大調整，持續看好具備全球競爭力的關鍵零組件：</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">半導體龍頭－算力基建的定海神針</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">AI投資重心已從單純的晶片代工擴散至整體設施。例如台積電位居先進製程的領先地位，以及台達電在高效能電源管理具備壟斷優勢，有較佳的抗風險能力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">記憶體族群－規格升級帶動結構性復甦</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2026年是記憶體產業由谷底翻升的關鍵期。隨著邊緣AI應用成熟，DDR5與高速傳輸規格升級正帶動產值加速成長。00991A主動布局具備技術優勢的台廠，捕捉報價回升與結構性轉機紅利。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">ABF 載板－高速運算下的價值重估</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">隨著新一代Nvidia AI晶片架構問世，其所耗用的ABF載板面積與層數較前代激增。由於上游原料擴產速度遠趕不上終端需求噴發，ABF產業有望進入類似記憶體產業「供需失衡、缺貨漲價」的強勁上升循環。&nbsp;<br><br><strong>(基金資產配置將視當時投資環境調整。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">【後市展望】主動出擊，捕捉市值躍遷的Alpha機會</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>地緣政治干擾短期情緒，但「AI基礎設施」與「半導體循環復甦」的長線趨勢並未改變。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">動態監控通膨指標</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">經理公司將密切關注油價對通膨及降息路徑的影響。若市場因短期恐慌 出現非理性的超跌，反而是主動式基金進行汰弱留強、卡位優質標的的良好契機。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">卡位未來50強</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">00991A的投資目標在於領先被動指數，發掘下一個進入台灣市值前50大的隱形冠軍。透過「提前布局、動態調整」帶領投資人贏在趨勢重啟的起跑線上。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">經理人結語</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">「短期震盪不改長期軌道。00991A維持原操作策略，透過重倉半導體與具轉機性的記憶體、載板族群，致力於在AI大時代中，為投資人篩選出具備長期競爭優勢的台灣未來50強。」&nbsp;<br><br>以上資料來源：復華投信整理<strong>(以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"美國及以色列對伊朗發動軍事行動，地緣政治引發短期市場波動，但預期台股在消化消息面的衝擊後，將回歸成長軌道。目前關鍵觀察點在於：衝突是否演變成「持久戰」，以及高檔油價若維持過久是否導致通膨失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202603/view-6.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"台灣,股票","postTime":"2026/03/04 11:47:00","startTime":"2026-03-04T11:47:00.6000000+08:00","metaTitle":"地緣局勢短期震盪，不改台股長線成長軌道｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-04T11:57:05.4270000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/f962bee6-075a-4589-a7c4-331b7adef8d5"}],"news01":[{"id":3057,"guid":"f52146d1-e354-4225-bdb2-c22b8033a913","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"AI代理時代開啟，台灣供應鏈中長期趨勢正向","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">今(2026)年以來台股在全球股市中表現相對佳，儘管近期有戰事干擾，以及清明節前出現賣壓，但節後台股強勢反彈，展現出台股的韌性。其中，AI仍是台股最強的護城河！</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI應用場景由雲端延伸至邊緣運算，AI規格更升級</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">3月份輝達GTC大會釋出新一代應用方向，供應鏈已進入升級循環；在此趨勢下，台廠憑藉技術與產能優勢，持續受惠成長紅利。<br><br>另觀察台灣加權指數結構，前十大權值股中約有55%(占指數市值*)直接受惠於AI成長動能，有助於指數呈現易漲難跌的格局。若戰爭不確定性逐步消化，市場風險偏好可望回溫，台股仍有機會延續創高動能。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">展望後市，台股短期雖因戰況不明而震盪，但中長期基本面依然強韌</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">AI 進入代理時代</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">Nvidia 發表新一代晶片，並強調 AI 代理時代來臨，模型已從訓練驅動轉向推論驅動。意味著伺服器、散熱、高階連接器等零組件的規格升級將持續加速，對台灣硬體供應鏈有利。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">記憶體展望</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">記憶體族群在短期漲多後受消息面影響（如 Google 新壓縮技術傳聞）而技術性回檔，但長期而言，AI 資料中心對高頻寬記憶體（HBM）與大容量儲存的需求仍大幅成長，結構性缺貨並未改變。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">核心布局策略</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">仍鎖定在 AI 規格提升的實質受惠者（如先進封裝設備、高速傳輸、散熱），以及具備缺貨與漲價潛力的族群。後續待地緣政治干擾減弱，具備技術優勢的相關個股應仍具反彈機會。</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>*資料來源：臺灣證券交易所，2026/4/2。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI發展由訓練進入推論階段，貢獻企業獲利成長動能強勁、台股維持合理評價，短期雖有震盪但長多趨勢不變。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-64.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣","postTime":"2026/04/10 13:46:36","startTime":"2026-04-10T13:46:36.7570000+08:00","metaTitle":"AI代理時代開啟，台灣供應鏈中長期趨勢正向｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-10T13:50:16.2070000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/f52146d1-e354-4225-bdb2-c22b8033a913"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/ETF23.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/ETF23.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/ETF23.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"","url2":"","file01":"/docupload/download/help/K1.pdf"},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"主動式ETF","isETFindex":1,"fundStatus":"1","isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1111,"updateTime":"2026-03-19T18:57:42.0170000+08:00","guid":"a85567b6-b3c5-4357-ae77-80b10b4dfcdf","fundID":"ETF24","twNameFull":"復華全球金融股票入息主動式ETF基金","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa Global Financial Equity Active ETF","ec002":"(基金之配息來源可能為收益平準金且本基金並無保證收益及配息)","twName":"—","pnav":"15.48","navDate":"2026/04/29","change":"-0.15","changeRange":"-0.96%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<p>一、以全球金融相關產業之股票為主要布局，追求長期之收益分配機會。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>二、投資人可於證券市場以市價交易主動式ETF，交易方式便利。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><span style=\"color:red;\"><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-font-family:Calibri;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA;mso-fareast-language:ZH-TW;\"><u>提醒投資人於交易前，應了解基金特性、投資人應負擔之成本費用及相關投資風險等各項資訊，詳見基金公開說明書。</u></span></span></p>","ec001":3,"ec005":"2026/03/31","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"合作金庫商業銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"最高為1.20%","ec013":"最高為0.140%","ec020":"","ec022":"季配","ec024":"全球","ec026":"","ec030":"—","ec034":"","ec036":"—","ec037":"—","ec038":"—","ec039":"主動式ETF","ec039_sort":5502,"ec040":"基金成立滿60天後，每年2、5、8、11月底","ec312":1,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>【註】淨收入係收入扣除該基金應負擔之費用，有關收益平準金之說明請詳閱該基金之信託契約或公開說明書。</p><p>*：係指本基金收入扣除應負擔費用(可能為負值)，包含因申購及買回產生之收益平準金，有關收益平準金之詳細說明請詳閱本基金信託契約或公開說明書。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>**：依金融監督管理委員會112年11月13日金管證投字第1120358072號函規定，當本基金符合投信公司或金融監督管理委員會所訂之收益平準金配發標準時，方得配發收益平準金中，屬於既有投資人申贖產生之部分(即上表B2)，且不得超過法令規定之使用上限。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>***：包含已實現及未實現的資本損益、已實現及未實現的資本損益平準金(申購及買回)。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>※ 漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，且配息型基金之漲跌幅未還原息值。</p>","ec407":"<p>資料來源：投信投顧公會，復華投信整理&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示；表格所示為含息報酬率，走勢圖為不含息之績效</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec411":"","ec412":"<p>1.以上資料依據各基金信託契約相關條款之規定公告。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>2.每現金申購/買回基數之實際申購總價金、申購總價金差額及買回總價金，以經理公司通知給付之金額為準。</p>","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"00998A","etf003":"主動復華金融股息","etf005":"—","etf011":"T+6","etf012":"","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"00998A復華全球金融股票入息主動式ETF基金(基金之配息來源可能為收益平準金且本基金並無保證收益及配息)","metaDescription":"一、以全球金融相關產業之股票為主要布局，追求長期之收益分配機會。\n二、投資人可於證券市場以市價交易主動式ETF，交易方式便利。","prepayRate":"110%","listDate":"2026/04/15","isAssets":"2","issueUnit":"50","brokerList_PD":"元大證券股份有限公司、凱基證券股份有限公司、兆豐證券股份有限公司、統一綜合證券股份有限公司、台新綜合證券股份有限公司、中國信託綜合證券股份有限公司","brokerList_LP":"元大證券股份有限公司、凱基證券股份有限公司、台新綜合證券股份有限公司、中國信託綜合證券股份有限公司","f_DisEqual":"Y","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"存股族最愛,主動式ETF","roi3m":"—","roi6m":"—","roi1y":"—","roi2y":"—","roi3y":"—","roiLaunch":"—","roiY2D":"—","ddate":"—","showmsg":"","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"張正宇","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[{"name":"余文耀","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"news":[{"id":3061,"guid":"ef6c11b2-18a4-477d-bae0-17e8558c5ee1","articleCategory":"理財觀念","title":"【00998A、00986D掛牌上市】國內首檔主動式金融股債ETF，投資「鑫」選擇","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">國內首檔主動式金融股債ETF-復華金融股債雙收傘型基金，已於3/31成立、4/15正式在櫃買中心掛牌交易，提供投資人參與海外趨勢產業投資「鑫」選擇！</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">復華金融股債雙收傘型基金小檔案</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">簡稱代號</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">主動復華金融股息(00998A) <strong>(基金之配息來源可能為收益平準金且本基金並無保證收益及配息)</strong></td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">主動復華金融債息(00986D)　<strong>(本基金有一定比重得投資於非投資等級之高風險債券且本基金並無保證收益及配息)</strong></td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">發行價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">新臺幣15元</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">新臺幣15元</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">收益分配</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">自本基金成立日起60日後，每季評估配息<strong>(配息來源包含股息、資本利得及收益平準金等)</strong></td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">自本基金成立日起60日後，每月評估配息<strong>(配息來源包含債息、資本利得等)</strong></td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">投資情形</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">1.以歐洲金融股為核心，符合原規劃&nbsp;<br>2.擇優佈局日本及美國等其他金融股&nbsp;<br>3.佈局期間搭配期貨增益，因應掛牌後可能的流動性需求</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">1.以已開發國家金融債為核心配置，符合原規劃&nbsp;<br>2.搭配其他債券增進收益機會&nbsp;<br>3.因應近期匯率變動，透過台幣NDF進行部分匯率避險</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：復華投信官網。本基金持股之股息配發時間及金額，視個別公司而定；本基金將累積之股息等收入於每季做成收益分配決定；為了改善因申購造成的稀釋問題，配息來源可能為收益平準金；如已實現資本利得扣除資本損失(包括已實現及未實現資本損失)及應負擔之成本費用後為正數，亦得評估分配。經理公司得依基金收益情形，自行決定應分配之金額或不分配，故每次分配之金額並非一定相同。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">經理人市場展望</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美伊戰事推升油價，各國央行將審慎觀察此對通膨的影響性與持續性。目前美國聯準會暫時觀望，但不至於轉向升息，仍有降息可能；歐洲降息循環結束，後續視食品與能源價格變化及對民生消費與工資價格的影響；日本處於溫和的升息趨勢。&nbsp;<br><br>在此環境下，預期短期內利率仍偏高，有助於銀行的利差收益。整體而言，<strong>金融股的本益比評價經過明顯修正後，提供佈局良機，而全球財富的長期累積以及金融監管逐步放鬆，將是金融業獲利成長的基石</strong>。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/check.svg\" alt=\"\">MSCI全球金融指數的預估EPS及本益比</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260415-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2026/4/10。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">每當金融市場波動上升、美國十年期公債殖利率上行至相對高位時，川普的強硬態度便有可能放軟；本次歷經3月份美債殖利率反彈與風險情緒惡化後，也見到美伊雙方協商的可能。&nbsp;<br><br>如今聯準會觀望戰事影響，<strong>市場卻已過度擔憂升息風險，利率上行風險有限，基金於3月底至4月上旬布局，應屬良好的投資時機，尤其金融監管鬆綁有助提升銀行獲利與競爭力，金融債基本面具支撐</strong>。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/check.svg\" alt=\"\">2025/1/20川普上任以來，美國十年公債殖利率走勢</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260415-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg、Fed、復華投信整理，截至2026/4/10。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"若您滿手AI科技股票，需要金融股票、債券的平衡配置，或者您是存股族、收息族，現在只要擁有台股交易帳戶，便可透過券商、APP、下單軟體進場布局","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-110.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"全球,金融","postTime":"2026/04/15 10:17:44","startTime":"2026-04-15T10:17:44.7170000+08:00","metaTitle":"【00998A、00986D掛牌上市】國內首檔主動式金融股債ETF，投資「鑫」選擇｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-15T10:23:53.7270000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"591827f3-069c-4c4c-8ab8-0797694614af","category":{"id":20969,"guid":"591827f3-069c-4c4c-8ab8-0797694614af","name":"理財觀念","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/inv-activity","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/inv-activity/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"投資脈動","metaTitle":"理財觀念｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/36d97bc5-1a4c-4c5a-a8df-267460a8f4b5B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12357,"guid":"f8810b16-51fb-4aca-a40e-ecea20f2ca9e","name":"理財觀念","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/inv-activity/ef6c11b2-18a4-477d-bae0-17e8558c5ee1"}],"news01":[{"id":3061,"guid":"ef6c11b2-18a4-477d-bae0-17e8558c5ee1","articleCategory":"理財觀念","title":"【00998A、00986D掛牌上市】國內首檔主動式金融股債ETF，投資「鑫」選擇","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">國內首檔主動式金融股債ETF-復華金融股債雙收傘型基金，已於3/31成立、4/15正式在櫃買中心掛牌交易，提供投資人參與海外趨勢產業投資「鑫」選擇！</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">復華金融股債雙收傘型基金小檔案</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">簡稱代號</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">主動復華金融股息(00998A) <strong>(基金之配息來源可能為收益平準金且本基金並無保證收益及配息)</strong></td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">主動復華金融債息(00986D)　<strong>(本基金有一定比重得投資於非投資等級之高風險債券且本基金並無保證收益及配息)</strong></td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">發行價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">新臺幣15元</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">新臺幣15元</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">收益分配</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">自本基金成立日起60日後，每季評估配息<strong>(配息來源包含股息、資本利得及收益平準金等)</strong></td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">自本基金成立日起60日後，每月評估配息<strong>(配息來源包含債息、資本利得等)</strong></td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">投資情形</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">1.以歐洲金融股為核心，符合原規劃&nbsp;<br>2.擇優佈局日本及美國等其他金融股&nbsp;<br>3.佈局期間搭配期貨增益，因應掛牌後可能的流動性需求</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">1.以已開發國家金融債為核心配置，符合原規劃&nbsp;<br>2.搭配其他債券增進收益機會&nbsp;<br>3.因應近期匯率變動，透過台幣NDF進行部分匯率避險</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：復華投信官網。本基金持股之股息配發時間及金額，視個別公司而定；本基金將累積之股息等收入於每季做成收益分配決定；為了改善因申購造成的稀釋問題，配息來源可能為收益平準金；如已實現資本利得扣除資本損失(包括已實現及未實現資本損失)及應負擔之成本費用後為正數，亦得評估分配。經理公司得依基金收益情形，自行決定應分配之金額或不分配，故每次分配之金額並非一定相同。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">經理人市場展望</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美伊戰事推升油價，各國央行將審慎觀察此對通膨的影響性與持續性。目前美國聯準會暫時觀望，但不至於轉向升息，仍有降息可能；歐洲降息循環結束，後續視食品與能源價格變化及對民生消費與工資價格的影響；日本處於溫和的升息趨勢。&nbsp;<br><br>在此環境下，預期短期內利率仍偏高，有助於銀行的利差收益。整體而言，<strong>金融股的本益比評價經過明顯修正後，提供佈局良機，而全球財富的長期累積以及金融監管逐步放鬆，將是金融業獲利成長的基石</strong>。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/check.svg\" alt=\"\">MSCI全球金融指數的預估EPS及本益比</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260415-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2026/4/10。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">每當金融市場波動上升、美國十年期公債殖利率上行至相對高位時，川普的強硬態度便有可能放軟；本次歷經3月份美債殖利率反彈與風險情緒惡化後，也見到美伊雙方協商的可能。&nbsp;<br><br>如今聯準會觀望戰事影響，<strong>市場卻已過度擔憂升息風險，利率上行風險有限，基金於3月底至4月上旬布局，應屬良好的投資時機，尤其金融監管鬆綁有助提升銀行獲利與競爭力，金融債基本面具支撐</strong>。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/check.svg\" alt=\"\">2025/1/20川普上任以來，美國十年公債殖利率走勢</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260415-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg、Fed、復華投信整理，截至2026/4/10。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"若您滿手AI科技股票，需要金融股票、債券的平衡配置，或者您是存股族、收息族，現在只要擁有台股交易帳戶，便可透過券商、APP、下單軟體進場布局","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-110.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"全球,金融","postTime":"2026/04/15 10:17:44","startTime":"2026-04-15T10:17:44.7170000+08:00","metaTitle":"【00998A、00986D掛牌上市】國內首檔主動式金融股債ETF，投資「鑫」選擇｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-15T10:23:53.7270000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"591827f3-069c-4c4c-8ab8-0797694614af","category":{"id":20969,"guid":"591827f3-069c-4c4c-8ab8-0797694614af","name":"理財觀念","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/inv-activity","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/inv-activity/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"投資脈動","metaTitle":"理財觀念｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/36d97bc5-1a4c-4c5a-a8df-267460a8f4b5B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12357,"guid":"f8810b16-51fb-4aca-a40e-ecea20f2ca9e","name":"理財觀念","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/inv-activity/ef6c11b2-18a4-477d-bae0-17e8558c5ee1"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/ETF24.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/ETF24.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/ETF24.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"","url2":"","file01":"/docupload/download/help/K1.pdf"},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"主動式ETF","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"1","isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":17,"updateTime":"2025-01-06T17:54:56.4500000+08:00","guid":"8c6515d1-a951-48a2-be14-79c9977f2056","fundID":"08","twNameFull":"復華中小精選基金","sortValue":0,"enName":"FUH-HWA SMALL CAPITAL FUND","ec002":"","twName":"中小精選","pnav":"425.09","navDate":"2026/04/29","change":"4.25","changeRange":"1.01%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">以國內上櫃股票、及資本額80億以下或市值450億以下之上市股票為主，輔以大型權值股配置，瞄準台灣中小型股的爆發力</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">掌握產業發展及企業脈動，選擇產業趨勢向上或競爭力強的中小型股為核心持股，並隨時檢視、汰弱留強</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2001/04/03","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"永豐商業銀行","ec009":"RR5","ec012":"1.60%","ec013":"0.150%","ec014":"2.00%(含)以下","ec020":"國內股票型","ec020_sort":5082,"ec022":"","ec024":"台灣","ec026":"股票型","ec027":"","ec028":"","ec030":"T+3日","ec036":"永豐商業銀行世貿分行","ec037":"復華中小精選基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":1,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":1,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華中小精選基金 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"強勢台股,定時定額0％手續費,存基金","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"13217822322.000000","roi3m":"19.31%","roi6m":"50.25%","roi1y":"120.21%","roi2y":"88.02%","roi3y":"162.85%","roiLaunch":"2,803.20%","roiY2D":"19.31%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"1","value02":"1","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"趙建彰","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":3072,"guid":"429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"台灣加權指數四萬點*，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股近日在台積電領軍下氣勢如虹，大盤指數攻上4萬點歷史高峰，究竟這是結構虛胖，或者是台灣資金活水充沛，台灣錢淹腳目帶來的股市榮景再現？從企業獲利的基本面觀察，AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環，現階段台股評價預估仍在合理水準。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI貢獻台灣出口增長，台灣經濟成長率上修</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股今(2026)年來漲幅已將近4成，主要是由基本面所推動。根據Bloomberg統計資料，2023年下半年起，資訊通訊產品出口年增率高達50%以上，由此可見AI對台灣出口增長的貢獻。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>此外，台灣經濟成長率也頻頻上修，包括央行、主計總處、中經院、台經院等研究機構資料顯示，2026年台灣GDP成長率預期達7%以上，傲視全球。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">各機構對2026年台灣GDP成長率預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：各機構，截至2026/4/27（圖中標示期間代表公布預測值之時間）。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，企業獲利的成長性與差異，也反映在股價表現上，除了高獲利支撐較高的評價，也是市場資金熱點，而大型科技龍頭獲利增長能見度仍佳，且經常優於預期，目前市場預期到明後年，台積電EPS年增率仍有機會達20%~25%。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，台股企業獲利連續正增長期間，有機會突破過去水準，若能拉長連續獲利的期間，越有機會使台股評價上修，而台灣加權指數從2萬5漲到4萬點，幾乎都由企業獲利推動，顯示AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台股評價預估仍在合理水準</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據Bloomberg資料顯示，2026年台灣各主要產業的獲利呈現高成長，2027年電子業預估獲利年成長達20%~40%，將可望支撐評價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/24。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，台灣股市的國際地位提升，想要參與AI與半導體投資，全球資金就該來台股市場尋寶。AI帶來的高成長仍在進行中，除了大量的基礎建設與算力需求，還有更先進的技術與產品規格。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>舉例來說， AI從訓練走向推論與應用，所需的資料中心成長更為快速，而台灣AI供應鏈的優勢，在於能快速與有效解決問題、滿足客戶需求，AI大趨勢將可望提供台灣超越亞洲國家的成長機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">全球市值前十大的股市與公司</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2026/4/24。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>＊2026/4/27台灣加權指數盤中高點為40,194點，為首次觸及四萬點。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/download/20260428.pdf\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\">了解更多並下載報告</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI為台灣相關企業獲利，帶來20%、40%、甚至60%以上的年成長率，台灣供應鏈的優勢，在於設計與應變的能力與速度及客戶的緊密合作。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/809318f2-bd33-4aed-a8e4-b9bf879b3b50view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣,全球","postTime":"2026/04/29 10:18:03","startTime":"2026-04-29T10:16:06.7200000+08:00","metaTitle":"台灣加權指數四萬點，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-29T10:48:29.9500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1"},{"id":3067,"guid":"6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 08:54:53","startTime":"2026-04-23T08:54:49.4100000+08:00","metaTitle":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-23T08:58:43.1630000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63"}],"news01":[{"id":3072,"guid":"429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"台灣加權指數四萬點*，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股近日在台積電領軍下氣勢如虹，大盤指數攻上4萬點歷史高峰，究竟這是結構虛胖，或者是台灣資金活水充沛，台灣錢淹腳目帶來的股市榮景再現？從企業獲利的基本面觀察，AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環，現階段台股評價預估仍在合理水準。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI貢獻台灣出口增長，台灣經濟成長率上修</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股今(2026)年來漲幅已將近4成，主要是由基本面所推動。根據Bloomberg統計資料，2023年下半年起，資訊通訊產品出口年增率高達50%以上，由此可見AI對台灣出口增長的貢獻。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>此外，台灣經濟成長率也頻頻上修，包括央行、主計總處、中經院、台經院等研究機構資料顯示，2026年台灣GDP成長率預期達7%以上，傲視全球。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">各機構對2026年台灣GDP成長率預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：各機構，截至2026/4/27（圖中標示期間代表公布預測值之時間）。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，企業獲利的成長性與差異，也反映在股價表現上，除了高獲利支撐較高的評價，也是市場資金熱點，而大型科技龍頭獲利增長能見度仍佳，且經常優於預期，目前市場預期到明後年，台積電EPS年增率仍有機會達20%~25%。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，台股企業獲利連續正增長期間，有機會突破過去水準，若能拉長連續獲利的期間，越有機會使台股評價上修，而台灣加權指數從2萬5漲到4萬點，幾乎都由企業獲利推動，顯示AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台股評價預估仍在合理水準</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據Bloomberg資料顯示，2026年台灣各主要產業的獲利呈現高成長，2027年電子業預估獲利年成長達20%~40%，將可望支撐評價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/24。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，台灣股市的國際地位提升，想要參與AI與半導體投資，全球資金就該來台股市場尋寶。AI帶來的高成長仍在進行中，除了大量的基礎建設與算力需求，還有更先進的技術與產品規格。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>舉例來說， AI從訓練走向推論與應用，所需的資料中心成長更為快速，而台灣AI供應鏈的優勢，在於能快速與有效解決問題、滿足客戶需求，AI大趨勢將可望提供台灣超越亞洲國家的成長機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">全球市值前十大的股市與公司</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2026/4/24。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>＊2026/4/27台灣加權指數盤中高點為40,194點，為首次觸及四萬點。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/download/20260428.pdf\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\">了解更多並下載報告</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI為台灣相關企業獲利，帶來20%、40%、甚至60%以上的年成長率，台灣供應鏈的優勢，在於設計與應變的能力與速度及客戶的緊密合作。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/809318f2-bd33-4aed-a8e4-b9bf879b3b50view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣,全球","postTime":"2026/04/29 10:18:03","startTime":"2026-04-29T10:16:06.7200000+08:00","metaTitle":"台灣加權指數四萬點，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-29T10:48:29.9500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/08.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/08.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=08","url2":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&Fund=08","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1015,"updateTime":"2026-03-13T09:26:51.6570000+08:00","guid":"6b929122-3fde-49b3-8773-98bcafadb4b4","fundID":"117","twNameFull":"復華台灣好收益基金","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa Taiwan Good Income Fund","ec002":"","twName":"台灣好收益","pnav":"19.45","navDate":"2026/04/29","change":"0.15","changeRange":"0.78%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li>投資台股，掌握產業脈動、企業競爭優勢及經營模式，尋找到成長性佳的產業及優質公司，參與企業獲利成長及評價提升機會，創造長期超額報酬之收益</li><li>本基金具有收益分配機制，每半年有機會將實現之資本利得回饋予投資人，成為值得長期配置之理財工具</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2021/01/11","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"永豐商業銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"1.60%","ec013":"0.11%~0.12%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"國內股票型","ec020_sort":5082,"ec022":"半年配","ec024":"台灣","ec026":"股票型","ec027":"依公開說明書規定","ec028":"","ec030":"T+3日","ec036":"永豐商業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華台灣好收益基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec040":"每年1、7月底","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":1,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p><p>表格所示為含息報酬率。走勢圖為不含息之績效。</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"<p>註1：除透過基金銷售機構以自己名義為投資人申購或買回本基金、壽險業者之投資型保單申購或買回本基金或其他經經理公司同意者外，分配之給付金額未達新台幣1,000元時，受益人同意經理公司以該筆分配金額再申購本基金受益權單位。</p><p>註2：配息率並非等於基金報酬率，於獲配息時，宜一併注意基金淨值之變動。</p><p>註3：收益分配紀錄查詢區間不可超過三年。</p>","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":0,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":1,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華台灣好收益基金 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","f_DisEqual":"N","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"強勢台股,打造第二筆退休金,存基金","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"3791188848.000000","roi3m":"13.71%","roi6m":"30.29%","roi1y":"82.81%","roi2y":"47.43%","roi3y":"99.09%","roiLaunch":"94.07%","roiY2D":"13.71%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"2026/02/05","disType":"半年配","value01":"1","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"顧克勤","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":3072,"guid":"429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"台灣加權指數四萬點*，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股近日在台積電領軍下氣勢如虹，大盤指數攻上4萬點歷史高峰，究竟這是結構虛胖，或者是台灣資金活水充沛，台灣錢淹腳目帶來的股市榮景再現？從企業獲利的基本面觀察，AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環，現階段台股評價預估仍在合理水準。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI貢獻台灣出口增長，台灣經濟成長率上修</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股今(2026)年來漲幅已將近4成，主要是由基本面所推動。根據Bloomberg統計資料，2023年下半年起，資訊通訊產品出口年增率高達50%以上，由此可見AI對台灣出口增長的貢獻。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>此外，台灣經濟成長率也頻頻上修，包括央行、主計總處、中經院、台經院等研究機構資料顯示，2026年台灣GDP成長率預期達7%以上，傲視全球。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">各機構對2026年台灣GDP成長率預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：各機構，截至2026/4/27（圖中標示期間代表公布預測值之時間）。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，企業獲利的成長性與差異，也反映在股價表現上，除了高獲利支撐較高的評價，也是市場資金熱點，而大型科技龍頭獲利增長能見度仍佳，且經常優於預期，目前市場預期到明後年，台積電EPS年增率仍有機會達20%~25%。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，台股企業獲利連續正增長期間，有機會突破過去水準，若能拉長連續獲利的期間，越有機會使台股評價上修，而台灣加權指數從2萬5漲到4萬點，幾乎都由企業獲利推動，顯示AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台股評價預估仍在合理水準</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據Bloomberg資料顯示，2026年台灣各主要產業的獲利呈現高成長，2027年電子業預估獲利年成長達20%~40%，將可望支撐評價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/24。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，台灣股市的國際地位提升，想要參與AI與半導體投資，全球資金就該來台股市場尋寶。AI帶來的高成長仍在進行中，除了大量的基礎建設與算力需求，還有更先進的技術與產品規格。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>舉例來說， AI從訓練走向推論與應用，所需的資料中心成長更為快速，而台灣AI供應鏈的優勢，在於能快速與有效解決問題、滿足客戶需求，AI大趨勢將可望提供台灣超越亞洲國家的成長機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">全球市值前十大的股市與公司</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2026/4/24。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>＊2026/4/27台灣加權指數盤中高點為40,194點，為首次觸及四萬點。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/download/20260428.pdf\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\">了解更多並下載報告</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI為台灣相關企業獲利，帶來20%、40%、甚至60%以上的年成長率，台灣供應鏈的優勢，在於設計與應變的能力與速度及客戶的緊密合作。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/809318f2-bd33-4aed-a8e4-b9bf879b3b50view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣,全球","postTime":"2026/04/29 10:18:03","startTime":"2026-04-29T10:16:06.7200000+08:00","metaTitle":"台灣加權指數四萬點，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-29T10:48:29.9500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1"},{"id":1609,"guid":"3c1425a9-ad80-4e51-b6fe-16ddf1f3471e","articleCategory":"首頁推薦基金文章","title":"鎖定台股長期趨勢向上，投資新概念","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"foreword-2 py-md-7 px-md-12 py-sm-5 px-sm-3\"><div class=\"title mb-7 flex justify-center\"><div class=\"title-container\"><div class=\"title-text text-7-bold color-white\">怎麼買？</div></div></div><div class=\"detail\"><div class=\"detail-list flex mb-5 align-items-start\"><div class=\"mt-1 mr-1\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/check.svg\"></div><p class=\"detail-list-info text-9-regular\">台股短線震盪回檔期間，也是<strong>加速累積便宜籌碼的好機會</strong>，<u>現在逢低擁有一檔會主動停利配息的台股基金正是時候</u>！</p></div><div class=\"detail-list flex mb-5 align-items-start\"><div class=\"mt-1 mr-1\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/check.svg\"></div><p class=\"detail-list-info text-9-regular\">無論是想要累積退休金的族群，或看好台股前景並願意長期投資的朋友們，都非常建議可以長線分批布局復華台灣好收益基金！</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&amp;Fund=117\" target=\"_blank\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex justify-center align-items-center px-5 py-1\"><span class=\"text-9-medium lh-14 color-white mr-1\">網路單筆申購，享0手續費!</span> <img class=\"mt-0\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/white/arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\">&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-5 flex\"><p class=\"text-9-medium color-white\">布局台灣好收益的理由：</p></div><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">資金運用更彈性</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">許多人需要固定現金流收入，或讓手中的資金運用更有彈性，例如當作退休後的生活花費可能來源之一。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\"> 掌握台股優勢，追求資本利得</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股長期以多頭為主，而這檔主動操作的台股基金，因選股著重成長性，故長期追求資本利得（賺價差）的機會大。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\"> 只配資本利得，不配本金及股息</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">只用已實現的資本利得來配息，即使空頭行情時也不以本金配息，避免本金縮水而無法回本的風險，另也不配股息，投資人還免個人綜所稅。<strong>（受益人就相關稅賦事宜請諮詢稅務專家意見，並依規定申報及納稅。）</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\"> 兼顧配息與累積基金淨值</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">它會把一部分實現的資本利得配出來給投資人，同時也保留一部分在淨值裡面，以期達到長期利滾利的效果，長期可能以更多本金創造更多配息。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-5 flex\"><p class=\"text-9-medium color-white\">市場展望</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。&nbsp;<br><br>值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">主動停利配息的台股基金</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&amp;Fund=15\" target=\"_blank\">網路申購享0手續費</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"一檔主動操作的台股基金，會把部分實現的資本利得配給投資人，並保留部分以期達到長期利滾利的效果，是創造現金流的另一個好選擇","url":"","urlType":"","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202301/view-19.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣","postTime":"2026/04/23 09:51:12","startTime":"2026-04-23T09:51:09.3330000+08:00","status":0,"metaTitle":"鎖定台股長期趨勢向上，配息基金新概念 - 台灣好收益｜投資觀點，復華投信-享退休找復華","metaDescription":"","metaKeyword":"","value01":0,"value02":"","value03":"","value04":"","value05":"","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-23T09:51:16.9100000+08:00","files":"","canEdit":false,"isFund":0,"isMFund":0,"isMedia":0,"isArticle":0,"isDividend":0,"dividendType":"","dividendRoute":"","categoryGuid":"8c2a02e2-f52a-46ea-a71f-b90e4ae0985e","category":{"id":21010,"guid":"8c2a02e2-f52a-46ea-a71f-b90e4ae0985e","name":"首頁推薦基金文章","parentGuid":"","route":"/insights_list/article_list/recommend_content?page=1","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/recommend_content/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"","isEnabled":1,"show":0,"showm":0,"description":"","metaTitle":"","metaDescription":"","metaKeyword":"","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/ea975eaf-ace7-4d37-b0e2-22ee851cc211G.logo.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12317,"guid":"e12e95d7-9076-4c93-a599-74a24cdaf632","name":"首頁推薦基金文章","parentGuid":"","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/recommend_content/3c1425a9-ad80-4e51-b6fe-16ddf1f3471e"}],"news01":[{"id":3072,"guid":"429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"台灣加權指數四萬點*，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股近日在台積電領軍下氣勢如虹，大盤指數攻上4萬點歷史高峰，究竟這是結構虛胖，或者是台灣資金活水充沛，台灣錢淹腳目帶來的股市榮景再現？從企業獲利的基本面觀察，AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環，現階段台股評價預估仍在合理水準。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI貢獻台灣出口增長，台灣經濟成長率上修</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股今(2026)年來漲幅已將近4成，主要是由基本面所推動。根據Bloomberg統計資料，2023年下半年起，資訊通訊產品出口年增率高達50%以上，由此可見AI對台灣出口增長的貢獻。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>此外，台灣經濟成長率也頻頻上修，包括央行、主計總處、中經院、台經院等研究機構資料顯示，2026年台灣GDP成長率預期達7%以上，傲視全球。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">各機構對2026年台灣GDP成長率預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：各機構，截至2026/4/27（圖中標示期間代表公布預測值之時間）。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，企業獲利的成長性與差異，也反映在股價表現上，除了高獲利支撐較高的評價，也是市場資金熱點，而大型科技龍頭獲利增長能見度仍佳，且經常優於預期，目前市場預期到明後年，台積電EPS年增率仍有機會達20%~25%。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，台股企業獲利連續正增長期間，有機會突破過去水準，若能拉長連續獲利的期間，越有機會使台股評價上修，而台灣加權指數從2萬5漲到4萬點，幾乎都由企業獲利推動，顯示AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台股評價預估仍在合理水準</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據Bloomberg資料顯示，2026年台灣各主要產業的獲利呈現高成長，2027年電子業預估獲利年成長達20%~40%，將可望支撐評價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/24。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，台灣股市的國際地位提升，想要參與AI與半導體投資，全球資金就該來台股市場尋寶。AI帶來的高成長仍在進行中，除了大量的基礎建設與算力需求，還有更先進的技術與產品規格。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>舉例來說， AI從訓練走向推論與應用，所需的資料中心成長更為快速，而台灣AI供應鏈的優勢，在於能快速與有效解決問題、滿足客戶需求，AI大趨勢將可望提供台灣超越亞洲國家的成長機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">全球市值前十大的股市與公司</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2026/4/24。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>＊2026/4/27台灣加權指數盤中高點為40,194點，為首次觸及四萬點。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/download/20260428.pdf\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\">了解更多並下載報告</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI為台灣相關企業獲利，帶來20%、40%、甚至60%以上的年成長率，台灣供應鏈的優勢，在於設計與應變的能力與速度及客戶的緊密合作。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/809318f2-bd33-4aed-a8e4-b9bf879b3b50view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣,全球","postTime":"2026/04/29 10:18:03","startTime":"2026-04-29T10:16:06.7200000+08:00","metaTitle":"台灣加權指數四萬點，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-29T10:48:29.9500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/117.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/117.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/117.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=117","url2":"","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1106,"updateTime":"2026-02-04T08:57:06.6970000+08:00","guid":"2d04305a-485f-4a58-ab7e-b96253f5d7a9","fundID":"122","twNameFull":"復華台灣科技高股息基金A類型","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa Taiwan Technology High Dividend Fund A","ec002":"(本基金並無保證收益及配息)","twName":"台灣科技高股息A","pnav":"15.41","navDate":"2026/04/29","change":"-0.06","changeRange":"-0.39%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">投資於國內上市上櫃公司中，科技相關產業及具有高股息特性之股票，參與長期較佳之企業獲利成長性與股息收益機會。</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">本基金A類型受益權單位為不配息之類型，各項收益累積在基金淨值中。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2024/04/30","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"第一商業銀行","ec009":"RR5","ec012":"1.60%","ec013":"0.12%~0.15%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"國內股票型","ec020_sort":5082,"ec022":"","ec024":"台灣","ec026":"股票型","ec030":"T+3日","ec036":"第一商業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華台灣科技高股息基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定(新臺幣3,000元)","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":1,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華台灣科技高股息基金(基金之配息來源可能為本金及收益平準金)A類型 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"投資於國內上市上櫃公司中，科技相關產業及具有高股息特性之股票，參與長期較佳之企業獲利成長性與股息收益機會。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"強勢台股","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"2558439993.000000","roi3m":"2.96%","roi6m":"15.87%","roi1y":"34.70%","roi2y":"0.00%","roi3y":"0.00%","roiLaunch":"21.90%","roiY2D":"2.96%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"1","value02":"1","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"呂宏宇","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":3072,"guid":"429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"台灣加權指數四萬點*，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股近日在台積電領軍下氣勢如虹，大盤指數攻上4萬點歷史高峰，究竟這是結構虛胖，或者是台灣資金活水充沛，台灣錢淹腳目帶來的股市榮景再現？從企業獲利的基本面觀察，AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環，現階段台股評價預估仍在合理水準。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI貢獻台灣出口增長，台灣經濟成長率上修</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股今(2026)年來漲幅已將近4成，主要是由基本面所推動。根據Bloomberg統計資料，2023年下半年起，資訊通訊產品出口年增率高達50%以上，由此可見AI對台灣出口增長的貢獻。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>此外，台灣經濟成長率也頻頻上修，包括央行、主計總處、中經院、台經院等研究機構資料顯示，2026年台灣GDP成長率預期達7%以上，傲視全球。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">各機構對2026年台灣GDP成長率預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：各機構，截至2026/4/27（圖中標示期間代表公布預測值之時間）。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，企業獲利的成長性與差異，也反映在股價表現上，除了高獲利支撐較高的評價，也是市場資金熱點，而大型科技龍頭獲利增長能見度仍佳，且經常優於預期，目前市場預期到明後年，台積電EPS年增率仍有機會達20%~25%。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，台股企業獲利連續正增長期間，有機會突破過去水準，若能拉長連續獲利的期間，越有機會使台股評價上修，而台灣加權指數從2萬5漲到4萬點，幾乎都由企業獲利推動，顯示AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台股評價預估仍在合理水準</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據Bloomberg資料顯示，2026年台灣各主要產業的獲利呈現高成長，2027年電子業預估獲利年成長達20%~40%，將可望支撐評價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/24。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，台灣股市的國際地位提升，想要參與AI與半導體投資，全球資金就該來台股市場尋寶。AI帶來的高成長仍在進行中，除了大量的基礎建設與算力需求，還有更先進的技術與產品規格。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>舉例來說， AI從訓練走向推論與應用，所需的資料中心成長更為快速，而台灣AI供應鏈的優勢，在於能快速與有效解決問題、滿足客戶需求，AI大趨勢將可望提供台灣超越亞洲國家的成長機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">全球市值前十大的股市與公司</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2026/4/24。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>＊2026/4/27台灣加權指數盤中高點為40,194點，為首次觸及四萬點。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/download/20260428.pdf\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\">了解更多並下載報告</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI為台灣相關企業獲利，帶來20%、40%、甚至60%以上的年成長率，台灣供應鏈的優勢，在於設計與應變的能力與速度及客戶的緊密合作。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/809318f2-bd33-4aed-a8e4-b9bf879b3b50view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣,全球","postTime":"2026/04/29 10:18:03","startTime":"2026-04-29T10:16:06.7200000+08:00","metaTitle":"台灣加權指數四萬點，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-29T10:48:29.9500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1"},{"id":3057,"guid":"f52146d1-e354-4225-bdb2-c22b8033a913","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"AI代理時代開啟，台灣供應鏈中長期趨勢正向","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">今(2026)年以來台股在全球股市中表現相對佳，儘管近期有戰事干擾，以及清明節前出現賣壓，但節後台股強勢反彈，展現出台股的韌性。其中，AI仍是台股最強的護城河！</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI應用場景由雲端延伸至邊緣運算，AI規格更升級</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">3月份輝達GTC大會釋出新一代應用方向，供應鏈已進入升級循環；在此趨勢下，台廠憑藉技術與產能優勢，持續受惠成長紅利。<br><br>另觀察台灣加權指數結構，前十大權值股中約有55%(占指數市值*)直接受惠於AI成長動能，有助於指數呈現易漲難跌的格局。若戰爭不確定性逐步消化，市場風險偏好可望回溫，台股仍有機會延續創高動能。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">展望後市，台股短期雖因戰況不明而震盪，但中長期基本面依然強韌</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">AI 進入代理時代</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">Nvidia 發表新一代晶片，並強調 AI 代理時代來臨，模型已從訓練驅動轉向推論驅動。意味著伺服器、散熱、高階連接器等零組件的規格升級將持續加速，對台灣硬體供應鏈有利。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">記憶體展望</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">記憶體族群在短期漲多後受消息面影響（如 Google 新壓縮技術傳聞）而技術性回檔，但長期而言，AI 資料中心對高頻寬記憶體（HBM）與大容量儲存的需求仍大幅成長，結構性缺貨並未改變。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">核心布局策略</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">仍鎖定在 AI 規格提升的實質受惠者（如先進封裝設備、高速傳輸、散熱），以及具備缺貨與漲價潛力的族群。後續待地緣政治干擾減弱，具備技術優勢的相關個股應仍具反彈機會。</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>*資料來源：臺灣證券交易所，2026/4/2。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI發展由訓練進入推論階段，貢獻企業獲利成長動能強勁、台股維持合理評價，短期雖有震盪但長多趨勢不變。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-64.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣","postTime":"2026/04/10 13:46:36","startTime":"2026-04-10T13:46:36.7570000+08:00","metaTitle":"AI代理時代開啟，台灣供應鏈中長期趨勢正向｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-10T13:50:16.2070000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/f52146d1-e354-4225-bdb2-c22b8033a913"}],"news01":[{"id":3072,"guid":"429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"台灣加權指數四萬點*，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股近日在台積電領軍下氣勢如虹，大盤指數攻上4萬點歷史高峰，究竟這是結構虛胖，或者是台灣資金活水充沛，台灣錢淹腳目帶來的股市榮景再現？從企業獲利的基本面觀察，AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環，現階段台股評價預估仍在合理水準。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI貢獻台灣出口增長，台灣經濟成長率上修</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股今(2026)年來漲幅已將近4成，主要是由基本面所推動。根據Bloomberg統計資料，2023年下半年起，資訊通訊產品出口年增率高達50%以上，由此可見AI對台灣出口增長的貢獻。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>此外，台灣經濟成長率也頻頻上修，包括央行、主計總處、中經院、台經院等研究機構資料顯示，2026年台灣GDP成長率預期達7%以上，傲視全球。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">各機構對2026年台灣GDP成長率預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：各機構，截至2026/4/27（圖中標示期間代表公布預測值之時間）。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，企業獲利的成長性與差異，也反映在股價表現上，除了高獲利支撐較高的評價，也是市場資金熱點，而大型科技龍頭獲利增長能見度仍佳，且經常優於預期，目前市場預期到明後年，台積電EPS年增率仍有機會達20%~25%。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，台股企業獲利連續正增長期間，有機會突破過去水準，若能拉長連續獲利的期間，越有機會使台股評價上修，而台灣加權指數從2萬5漲到4萬點，幾乎都由企業獲利推動，顯示AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台股評價預估仍在合理水準</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據Bloomberg資料顯示，2026年台灣各主要產業的獲利呈現高成長，2027年電子業預估獲利年成長達20%~40%，將可望支撐評價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/24。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，台灣股市的國際地位提升，想要參與AI與半導體投資，全球資金就該來台股市場尋寶。AI帶來的高成長仍在進行中，除了大量的基礎建設與算力需求，還有更先進的技術與產品規格。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>舉例來說， AI從訓練走向推論與應用，所需的資料中心成長更為快速，而台灣AI供應鏈的優勢，在於能快速與有效解決問題、滿足客戶需求，AI大趨勢將可望提供台灣超越亞洲國家的成長機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">全球市值前十大的股市與公司</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2026/4/24。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>＊2026/4/27台灣加權指數盤中高點為40,194點，為首次觸及四萬點。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/download/20260428.pdf\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\">了解更多並下載報告</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI為台灣相關企業獲利，帶來20%、40%、甚至60%以上的年成長率，台灣供應鏈的優勢，在於設計與應變的能力與速度及客戶的緊密合作。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/809318f2-bd33-4aed-a8e4-b9bf879b3b50view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣,全球","postTime":"2026/04/29 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style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">本基金B類型受益權單位每月評估收益分配，為投資人提供現金流之機會。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2024/04/30","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"第一商業銀行","ec009":"RR5","ec012":"1.60%","ec013":"0.12%~0.15%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"國內股票型","ec020_sort":5082,"ec022":"月配","ec024":"台灣","ec026":"股票型","ec030":"T+3日","ec036":"第一商業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華台灣科技高股息基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec040":"成立滿二個月後，每月22日","ec193":"依公開說明書規定(新臺幣10,000元)","ec312":1,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，且配息型基金之漲跌幅未還原息值。<br>【註】淨收入係收入扣除該基金應負擔之費用，有關收益平準之說明請詳閱該基金之信託契約或公開說明書。<br>*：係指本基金收入扣除應負擔費用(可能為負值)，包含因申購及買回產生之收益平準金，有關收益平準金之詳細說明請詳閱本基金信託契約或公開說明書。<br>**：當本基金符合投信公司或金融監督管理委員會所訂之收益平準金配發標準時，方得配發收益平準金中，屬於既有投資人申贖產生之部分(即上表B2)，且有其使用上限。<br>***：包含已實現及未實現的資本損益、已實現及未實現的資本損益平準金(申購及買回)。<br>&nbsp;</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":0,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":1,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華台灣科技高股息基金(基金之配息來源可能為本金及收益平準金)B類型 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"投資於國內上市上櫃公司中，科技相關產業及具有高股息特性之股票，參與長期較佳之企業獲利成長性與股息收益機會。","issueUnit":"0.0000","f_DisEqual":"Y","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"1228545219.000000","roi3m":"2.90%","roi6m":"15.79%","roi1y":"34.67%","roi2y":"0.00%","roi3y":"0.00%","roiLaunch":"21.85%","roiY2D":"2.90%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"2026/04/28","disType":"月配","value01":"1","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"呂宏宇","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":3069,"guid":"e47eb72b-67ac-42f5-846e-1e8efbc7bcad","articleCategory":"配息公告","title":"【115年04月份配息金額公告】復華台灣科技高股息基金","contents":"","summary":"配息期前相關資訊，請點「下載」觀看詳細公告內容，謝謝！","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"","postTime":"2026/04/27 12:15:47","startTime":"2026-04-27T12:15:47.1970000+08:00","metaTitle":"復華台灣科技高股息基金115年04月份配息金額公告 | 復華投信","metaDescription":"最新共同基金、指數型基金及ETF相關訊息公告，以及復華投信給投資人的重要通知。","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-27T12:16:39.6400000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":1,"dividendType":"2","dividendRoute":"202604","categoryGuid":"cf878d00-aac3-4c90-acde-7e9f83afc059","category":{"id":20974,"guid":"cf878d00-aac3-4c90-acde-7e9f83afc059","name":"配息公告","parentGuid":"53338b1b-120e-46bd-a7d7-d579682c4a41","route":"/services/news_list/annoucement","routeSource":"/services/news_list.html","route01":"/services/news_list/content/annoucement/{guid}","route01Source":"/services/interest_news.html","views":"","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"配息公告","metaTitle":"配息公告｜復華投信","metaDescription":"最新共同基金、指數型基金及ETF相關訊息公告，以及復華投信給投資人的重要通知。","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/58b14aec-4840-401b-9739-85e878ddf642G.logo.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"articleCategorys":{"id":12326,"guid":"c9a9697c-c933-467e-80e9-e72c5faad797","name":"配息公告","parentGuid":"3c02dcc3-6a5a-4c94-ab84-0b3aebd55b8f","description":"配息公告敘述","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/services/news_list/content/annoucement/e47eb72b-67ac-42f5-846e-1e8efbc7bcad"},{"id":3062,"guid":"dc92e2b7-92c6-433c-833a-015cd5b25b0e","articleCategory":"配息公告","title":"【115年04月份配息期前公告】復華台灣科技高股息基金","contents":"","summary":"配息期前相關資訊，請點「下載」觀看詳細公告內容，謝謝！","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"","postTime":"2026/04/17 11:43:44","startTime":"2026-04-17T11:43:44.4200000+08:00","metaTitle":"復華台灣科技高股息基金115年04月份配息期前公告 | 復華投信","metaDescription":"最新共同基金、指數型基金及ETF相關訊息公告，以及復華投信給投資人的重要通知。","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-17T11:45:14.4500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":1,"dividendType":"1","dividendRoute":"202604","categoryGuid":"cf878d00-aac3-4c90-acde-7e9f83afc059","category":{"id":20974,"guid":"cf878d00-aac3-4c90-acde-7e9f83afc059","name":"配息公告","parentGuid":"53338b1b-120e-46bd-a7d7-d579682c4a41","route":"/services/news_list/annoucement","routeSource":"/services/news_list.html","route01":"/services/news_list/content/annoucement/{guid}","route01Source":"/services/interest_news.html","views":"","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"配息公告","metaTitle":"配息公告｜復華投信","metaDescription":"最新共同基金、指數型基金及ETF相關訊息公告，以及復華投信給投資人的重要通知。","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/58b14aec-4840-401b-9739-85e878ddf642G.logo.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"articleCategorys":{"id":12326,"guid":"c9a9697c-c933-467e-80e9-e72c5faad797","name":"配息公告","parentGuid":"3c02dcc3-6a5a-4c94-ab84-0b3aebd55b8f","description":"配息公告敘述","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/services/news_list/content/annoucement/dc92e2b7-92c6-433c-833a-015cd5b25b0e"}],"news01":[{"id":2368,"guid":"49e5b4b2-3b78-4ea0-9b1d-ff3950b8a5d0","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"Fed快速降息機率增，惟景氣惡化可能性低","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">隨著美國通膨及就業市場降溫，美國聯準會(Fed)將綜合考量通膨與就業的雙重目標，市場因而預期Fed快速降息的可能性上升，除了今(2024)年9月降息幅度有機會超過1碼，更預期未來三次會議將共降息4碼；但進一步觀察ISM、就業及企業獲利等經濟數據，則可研判景氣進一步惡化的可能性低，換言之，在經濟沒有衰退的情況下，Fed一旦降息將更有利股市未來表現。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">現階段而言，股市評價面、技術面與籌碼面均進入修正期，而VIX指數飆高顯示市場出現非理性超跌，日圓空頭部位也已大幅降低，目前景氣尚無大幅衰退疑慮，而且企業獲利預估仍可望維持增長，將支撐股市中長期趨勢向上。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">至於債市方面，由於主要央行陸續啟動降息循環，在利率風險下降的情況下，各債券殖利率水準仍處在歷史相對高位，有助於支撐各債市總報酬表現。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國景氣進一步惡化可能性低</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新公布的7月份ISM製造業指數46.8，為連續第4個月位於景氣榮枯線50以下，低於市場預期，但觀察細項的新訂單相對庫存指數，其走勢為底部逐漸墊高，研判進一步惡化可能性不高。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國製造業指數、服務業指數與新訂單-庫存指數表現</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202408/20240814-1.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，復華投信整理，2024/7。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國企業招聘雖降溫，但無加速裁員</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">近期美國失業率上升引發經濟陷入衰退的疑慮，根據最新資料顯示，美國7月份失業率4.3%，觸及Sahm Rule經濟衰退指標，即過去三個月平均失業率比前一年低點上升逾0.5%。但事實上，目前失業率上升不再是因為市場對勞工的需求減弱，而是由於勞動供給的增加，例如疫情後美國移民激增，便促進了就業市場恢復。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">整體而言，美國勞動力供給增加、需求緩步降溫，供需缺口正持續縮小，而在勞動市場供需逐步平衡的情況下，即便企業對勞工需求下降，但裁員人數也在相對低檔，可見美國近期的就業數據，並不代表美國景氣將出現衰退。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國企業職位空缺率、企業裁員人數</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202408/20240814-2.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，復華投信整理，2024/7。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">市場預期2025年企業獲利展望樂觀</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據Refinitiv截至8/2統計，預估美國S&amp;P500指數在2025年第二季企業獲利成長12.9%、營收年增5.1%，而且今明兩年預估股市獲利增速仍在近年來高檔，整體股市評價雖不便宜但仍然合理；尤其近期股市快速修正後，全球科技股、半導體指數及台灣科技類股評價仍相對具有吸引力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，大型科技股相對成長性仍然具優勢，例如美國七大科技成長股的長期預估增長仍維持近五年平均之20%水準，即使經濟成長出現疑慮，大型科技股的獲利及財務體質佳，後市展望依然相對樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國七大科技成長股預估本益比、預估長期獲利成長率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202408/20240814-3.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，復華投信整理，2024/8/5。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>(以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表本基金之績效，本基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。投資建議僅供參考，投資人仍須依自身投資需求與風險承受度評估。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><strong><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> </strong><span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\"><strong>我要母子基金循環投資</strong></span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</strong></a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><strong><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> </strong><span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\"><strong>我還不是復華客戶</strong></span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</strong></a></div></div></div><p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p>","summary":"股市評價面、技術面與籌碼面均進入修正期，但景氣尚無衰退疑慮且企業獲利預估仍可望持續增長，將支撐股市中期趨勢向上。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202408/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,全球,科技","postTime":"2024/08/15 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OMNI FUND A","ec002":"","twName":"全方位A","pnav":"169.86","navDate":"2026/04/29","change":"1.20","changeRange":"0.71%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">對於各產業精選之國內上市櫃公司股票進行價值、成長動能、及獲利評估，選出具競爭優勢及成長潛力之個股</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">在精選個股及透過經理人加值研判的同時，審慎因應市場風險，兼顧收益性與風險控管</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2005/08/01","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"玉山商業銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"1.60%","ec013":"0.140%","ec014":"2.00%(含)以下","ec020":"國內股票型","ec020_sort":5082,"ec022":"","ec024":"台灣","ec026":"股票型","ec027":"","ec028":"","ec030":"T+3日","ec036":"玉山商業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華全方位基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":1,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華全方位基金 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"強勢台股,打造第二筆退休金,定時定額0％手續費","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"6558912659.000000","roi3m":"9.94%","roi6m":"40.39%","roi1y":"95.85%","roi2y":"80.67%","roi3y":"155.57%","roiLaunch":"1,051.60%","roiY2D":"9.94%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"1","value02":"1","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"呂宏宇","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":3072,"guid":"429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"台灣加權指數四萬點*，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股近日在台積電領軍下氣勢如虹，大盤指數攻上4萬點歷史高峰，究竟這是結構虛胖，或者是台灣資金活水充沛，台灣錢淹腳目帶來的股市榮景再現？從企業獲利的基本面觀察，AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環，現階段台股評價預估仍在合理水準。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI貢獻台灣出口增長，台灣經濟成長率上修</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股今(2026)年來漲幅已將近4成，主要是由基本面所推動。根據Bloomberg統計資料，2023年下半年起，資訊通訊產品出口年增率高達50%以上，由此可見AI對台灣出口增長的貢獻。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>此外，台灣經濟成長率也頻頻上修，包括央行、主計總處、中經院、台經院等研究機構資料顯示，2026年台灣GDP成長率預期達7%以上，傲視全球。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">各機構對2026年台灣GDP成長率預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：各機構，截至2026/4/27（圖中標示期間代表公布預測值之時間）。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，企業獲利的成長性與差異，也反映在股價表現上，除了高獲利支撐較高的評價，也是市場資金熱點，而大型科技龍頭獲利增長能見度仍佳，且經常優於預期，目前市場預期到明後年，台積電EPS年增率仍有機會達20%~25%。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，台股企業獲利連續正增長期間，有機會突破過去水準，若能拉長連續獲利的期間，越有機會使台股評價上修，而台灣加權指數從2萬5漲到4萬點，幾乎都由企業獲利推動，顯示AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台股評價預估仍在合理水準</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據Bloomberg資料顯示，2026年台灣各主要產業的獲利呈現高成長，2027年電子業預估獲利年成長達20%~40%，將可望支撐評價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/24。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，台灣股市的國際地位提升，想要參與AI與半導體投資，全球資金就該來台股市場尋寶。AI帶來的高成長仍在進行中，除了大量的基礎建設與算力需求，還有更先進的技術與產品規格。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>舉例來說， AI從訓練走向推論與應用，所需的資料中心成長更為快速，而台灣AI供應鏈的優勢，在於能快速與有效解決問題、滿足客戶需求，AI大趨勢將可望提供台灣超越亞洲國家的成長機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">全球市值前十大的股市與公司</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2026/4/24。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>＊2026/4/27台灣加權指數盤中高點為40,194點，為首次觸及四萬點。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/download/20260428.pdf\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\">了解更多並下載報告</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI為台灣相關企業獲利，帶來20%、40%、甚至60%以上的年成長率，台灣供應鏈的優勢，在於設計與應變的能力與速度及客戶的緊密合作。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/809318f2-bd33-4aed-a8e4-b9bf879b3b50view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣,全球","postTime":"2026/04/29 10:18:03","startTime":"2026-04-29T10:16:06.7200000+08:00","metaTitle":"台灣加權指數四萬點，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-29T10:48:29.9500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1"},{"id":3068,"guid":"20194137-6145-42b5-80d3-1b22833f8efc","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美伊重啟談判預期及科技股企業財報提振股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">重要金融事件摘要</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>美國特使及伊朗外長啟程至巴基斯坦，兩方重啟談判預期升溫。而美國欲延長停火，仍維持荷姆茲海峽封鎖，並要求伊朗提出統一的談判方案。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>美國聯準會(Fed)主席被提名人Warsh於參議院聽證會強調央行獨立性，表示AI可不推升通膨而振興生產力、提供降息空間，另欲有新通膨分析框架、弱化利率點陣圖重要性、縮減央行資產負債表等改革。美國司法部週五撤銷對現任主席Powell的刑事調查。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>台灣3月外銷訂單年增65.9%遠優於統計處預估38至42%區間，金額首度突破900億美元關卡，首季外銷訂單累計年增50%創歷年單季新高，統計處預估4月仍將成長近五成。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/4.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>美國製造業PMI初值升至54為近四年新高、服務業亦升至51.3；歐元區製造業PMI初值升至52.2、服務業反降至47.4跌破榮枯分水嶺；日本製造業PMI初值升至54.9、服務業降至51.2。缺貨及漲價擔憂致使企業囤貨補庫、價格分項則見通膨擔憂。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/5.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>據Refinitiv截至4/24統計彙整，S&amp;P500指數成分已139間企業公布首季財報，預估企業獲利成長16.1%較上週14.4%上調、營收年增9.7%，獲利營收優於預期家數比例各為81.3%及77.4%。未來一週Visa、Amazon、Alphabet、Meta、Microsoft、Apple等178間企業公布財報展望。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">上週股市及各資產表現</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">MSCI全球股週跌0.2%，資訊科技類股週漲3.4%領漲、能源股亦漲2.8%，醫療健護類股週跌3.8%相對疲弱。美股道瓊工業指數週跌0.4%而S&amp;P500指數漲0.6%，Nasdaq漲1.5%，費城半導體指數週漲10%、已連續18個交易日收紅。道瓊歐洲600指數跌2.5%，日經225指數漲2.1%。MSCI新興股漲0.8%。<br><br>台灣金管會放寬單一個股持股上限制25%推升台積電股價創高，台股加權股價指數週漲5.78%收於38,932.4點，櫃買指數週漲2.47%收於381.54點。中國滬深300指數週漲0.9%、香港恆生指數週跌0.7%。<br><br>其他資產表現，美國10年期公債殖利率週升5.3bps至4.30%。美元指數漲0.4%至98.53。美伊談判進展牽動油礦金走勢，西德州油價週漲14.3%至每桶94.4美元，期銅價跌1.4%，原物料市場(CRB指數)漲4.5%。美元計價之全球公債跌0.7%而投等債指數跌0.3%，高收債及新興美元債各跌0.2%及0.5%。富時已開發國家REITs指數週跌1.6%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">中長期金融市場風險因素觀察</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>短期油價因中東戰事波動，但中長期通膨壓力減輕，主要央行降息後股市可望續強。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>關稅、貨幣政策限制性或中東戰事延長導致經濟衰退及企業獲利下修風險。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>若央行升息、銀行放貸收緊使金融資產、房地產或因泡沫擔憂而修正，將增加金融風險。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/4.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>中國房市價量數據、經濟復甦進展及托底政策推出之成效。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">2026至2027年MSCI全球股市指數及各主要國家企業獲利成長及預估本益比</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">主要國家股市</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年獲利年增率預估(%)</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2027年獲利年增率預估(%)</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年預估本益比</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2027年預估本益比</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">過去10年本益比區間</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">MSCI全球指數</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+22.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+15.4</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">18.5</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">16.3</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">12.5~28.1</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">美國S&amp;P 500</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+19.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+17.8</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">21.9</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">19.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">14.0~31.8</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">道瓊歐洲600指數</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+12.7</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+11.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">15.4</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">14.2</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">10.7~26.1</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">中國上證指數</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+14.4</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+10.2</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">12.0</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">10.4</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">9.5~17.3</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">台灣股市</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+39.6</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+22.7</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">22.0</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">17.8</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">8.8~24.0</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">MSCI新興市場</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+45.7</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+16.5</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">12.2</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">10.4</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">9.8~22.0</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：IBES Thomson Reuters，Bloomberg，2026/4/24。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"美國聯準會主席被提名人Warsh強調央行獨立性，表示AI可提供降息空間，另欲有新通膨分析框架、弱化利率點陣圖重要性、縮減央行資產負債表等改革。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-14.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/27 09:24:08","startTime":"2026-04-27T09:24:08.2700000+08:00","metaTitle":"美伊重啟談判預期及科技股企業財報提振股市｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-27T09:26:59.6000000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/20194137-6145-42b5-80d3-1b22833f8efc"}],"news01":[{"id":3072,"guid":"429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"台灣加權指數四萬點*，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股近日在台積電領軍下氣勢如虹，大盤指數攻上4萬點歷史高峰，究竟這是結構虛胖，或者是台灣資金活水充沛，台灣錢淹腳目帶來的股市榮景再現？從企業獲利的基本面觀察，AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環，現階段台股評價預估仍在合理水準。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI貢獻台灣出口增長，台灣經濟成長率上修</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股今(2026)年來漲幅已將近4成，主要是由基本面所推動。根據Bloomberg統計資料，2023年下半年起，資訊通訊產品出口年增率高達50%以上，由此可見AI對台灣出口增長的貢獻。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>此外，台灣經濟成長率也頻頻上修，包括央行、主計總處、中經院、台經院等研究機構資料顯示，2026年台灣GDP成長率預期達7%以上，傲視全球。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">各機構對2026年台灣GDP成長率預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：各機構，截至2026/4/27（圖中標示期間代表公布預測值之時間）。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，企業獲利的成長性與差異，也反映在股價表現上，除了高獲利支撐較高的評價，也是市場資金熱點，而大型科技龍頭獲利增長能見度仍佳，且經常優於預期，目前市場預期到明後年，台積電EPS年增率仍有機會達20%~25%。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，台股企業獲利連續正增長期間，有機會突破過去水準，若能拉長連續獲利的期間，越有機會使台股評價上修，而台灣加權指數從2萬5漲到4萬點，幾乎都由企業獲利推動，顯示AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台股評價預估仍在合理水準</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據Bloomberg資料顯示，2026年台灣各主要產業的獲利呈現高成長，2027年電子業預估獲利年成長達20%~40%，將可望支撐評價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/24。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，台灣股市的國際地位提升，想要參與AI與半導體投資，全球資金就該來台股市場尋寶。AI帶來的高成長仍在進行中，除了大量的基礎建設與算力需求，還有更先進的技術與產品規格。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>舉例來說， AI從訓練走向推論與應用，所需的資料中心成長更為快速，而台灣AI供應鏈的優勢，在於能快速與有效解決問題、滿足客戶需求，AI大趨勢將可望提供台灣超越亞洲國家的成長機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">全球市值前十大的股市與公司</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2026/4/24。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>＊2026/4/27台灣加權指數盤中高點為40,194點，為首次觸及四萬點。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/download/20260428.pdf\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\">了解更多並下載報告</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI為台灣相關企業獲利，帶來20%、40%、甚至60%以上的年成長率，台灣供應鏈的優勢，在於設計與應變的能力與速度及客戶的緊密合作。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/809318f2-bd33-4aed-a8e4-b9bf879b3b50view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣,全球","postTime":"2026/04/29 10:18:03","startTime":"2026-04-29T10:16:06.7200000+08:00","metaTitle":"台灣加權指數四萬點，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-29T10:48:29.9500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/15.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/15.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=15","url2":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&Fund=15","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1109,"updateTime":"2026-01-23T08:56:57.8670000+08:00","guid":"56ce4431-34aa-4cfd-9e76-254f2cbf69b4","fundID":"125","twNameFull":"復華全方位基金TISA類型","sortValue":0,"enName":"FUH-HWA OMNI FUND TISA","ec002":"","twName":"全方位TISA","pnav":"20.13","navDate":"2026/04/29","change":"0.14","changeRange":"0.70%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">對於各產業精選之國內上市櫃公司股票進行價值、成長動能、及獲利評估，選出具競爭優勢及成長潛力之個股</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">在精選個股及透過經理人加值研判的同時，審慎因應市場風險，兼顧收益性與風險控管</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2005/08/01","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"玉山商業銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"0.80%","ec013":"0.140%","ec014":"2.00%(含)以下","ec020":"國內股票型","ec020_sort":5082,"ec022":"","ec024":"台灣","ec026":"股票型","ec030":"T+3日","ec036":"玉山商業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華全方位基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華全方位基金TISA類型｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","metaKeyword":"TISA","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":0,"fundSize_TWD":"3949281.000000","roi3m":"10.18%","roi6m":"0.00%","roi1y":"0.00%","roi2y":"0.00%","roi3y":"0.00%","roiLaunch":"32.04%","roiY2D":"10.18%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"呂宏宇","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":2877,"guid":"be215207-0a25-42cf-812a-d7b64d2957b6","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"降息與AI雙支撐，多頭行情有望續航","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">近來各國股市普遍上漲，主因關稅議題消退、美國降息循環重啟，加上經濟環境穩定及企業獲利上修！而展望2025年第四季，雖然短期漲幅較大，但在溫和降息情境、企業獲利成長，且股市情緒未過熱的加持下，多頭趨勢有望持續。建議可維持股票偏多配置，搭配債券基本部位。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">總經環境穩定：關稅議題消退，美國GDP預估增速緩步回升</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">從消費者支出及零售銷售年增率等經濟數據來看，美國內需仍保持穩健，目前未見經濟衰退傾向，而美國國內生產毛額(GDP)預估增速亦呈現緩步回升，目前已逐步上修至1~2%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國各季度GDP季增年率預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202510/20251007-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2025/9/19。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">降息循環重啟：通膨可控，未來一年聯準會有機會溫和降息</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國聯準會(Fed)主席Powell表示，關稅帶來的通膨壓力屬於一次性影響，風險已經下降，而通膨率短期上揚後，預期2026年回落，仍在可控範圍。根據Fed預測，2026年通膨率可望降至2.6%，2027年降至2.1%並接近長期目標2.0%。&nbsp;<br><br>事實上，Fed在2025年9月降息一碼，至明(2026)年底有機會再降息三碼，Fed主席並強調，目前是基於風險管理的降息，並非經濟瀕臨衰退。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">2025年9月份FOMC會議之經濟預測</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202510/20251007-5.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>個人消費支出物價指數(PCE)為聯準會關注的通膨指標；核心PCE為排除價格波動度較大的能源與食品項目。本文所稱之通膨率為PCE年增率。資料來源：2025/9/17之FOMC會議。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">企業獲利有撐：溫和降息有利股市，基本面支持股市多頭趨勢</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">整體而言，溫和降息環境有利股市，且通常代表景氣沒有衰退危機，現階段從基本面觀察，各產業獲利成長動能良好，全球股市企業獲利亦保持成長，根據Bloomberg等資料預期，2026年全球企業獲利成長約13%，而企業獲利上修後，較高的獲利增速可望支持較高的評價，而現階段情緒面指標並未過熱、市場廣度良好，股市多頭趨勢仍在。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">自1971年以來，未來一年聯準會升/降息情境下，美國標普500指數的年報酬率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202510/20251007-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>(註)上圖橫軸表示未來一年聯準會累積升息或降息幅度；縱軸表示符合該情境下標普500指數年報酬率之中位數。資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2025/9/19。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">今年以來，標普500指數中科技股與非科技股，預估EPS的變動幅度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202510/20251007-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2025/9/19</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台股續受惠AI：AI類股續領風騷，股市並無超漲與過熱疑慮</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">針對台股市場展望，由於AI仍在高速成長、商機龐大，出口強勁並推升2025年台灣經濟成長率，而2026年雖然基期墊高，但有望受惠民間消費而溫和成長。&nbsp;<br><br>根據Bloomberg資料顯示，預估未來一年台股企業獲利成長率15~20%，將支撐台灣經濟與企業獲利；而目前加權指數持續創新高，主要是反映基本面，況且年線乖離度未達極端，融資增速仍遠低於指數漲幅，尤其在更多產業加入上漲行列的情況下，更顯示市場寬度持續改善。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">台灣加權指數報酬表現及預期企業獲利成長率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202510/20251007-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2025/9/19</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。本資料僅供參考，不代表投資績效之保證。投資人申購基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不代表基金之績效，基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"關稅議題消退、經濟與企業獲利上修，支持股市上漲；雖然短期漲幅較大，但多頭趨勢有望持續。建議可維持股票偏多配置，搭配債券基本部位。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202510/view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"全球,股票,債券","postTime":"2025/10/09 07:27:32","startTime":"2025-10-09T07:27:28.7670000+08:00","metaTitle":"降息與AI雙支撐，多頭行情有望續航｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-10-09T07:27:33.7570000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/be215207-0a25-42cf-812a-d7b64d2957b6"},{"id":2868,"guid":"ed805f5b-87d3-4495-918f-c83d272581f9","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"台股衝上歷史新高，三大面向觀察可能走勢","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2025下半年，隨著美國川普政府關稅政策逐步明朗，台積電有望豁免半導體關稅，加上市場預期美國聯準會即將重啟降息，在資金行情推升下，AI類股帶動台股持續上攻，台灣加權指數於9月份創下歷史新高（圖一）。然而，AI類股短期漲幅過快，市場也開始出現AI前景是否過度樂觀的擔憂。&nbsp;<br><br>台股後市如何發展？本文將從台灣經濟基本面、產業趨勢與市場評價面三個角度切入，探討可能的走勢。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖一：近五年台灣加權指數（不含息）走勢</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202510/20251002-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2020/9/10~2025/9/10。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">出口強勁推升經濟成長，惟各產業增長力道不均</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在AI需求推動下，台灣出口動能持續強勁。2025年8月出口年增率達34%，其中資通與視聽產品表現尤為突出，反映AI資料中心與高階晶片需求暢旺（圖二）。受此帶動，主計總處上修台灣全年出口與經濟成長率，預估2025年GDP可達4.45%。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>然而，復甦並非全面擴散。8月製造業PMI為47.9，仍低於50的榮枯線，顯示整體製造業仍較疲弱。六大產業中，除電子光學與化學生技仍具支撐外，傳統機械、原物料與交通等產業則呈現明顯下滑（圖三）。顯示台灣出口成長高度仰賴AI與半導體產業，多數傳產復甦力道仍顯不足，投資人需留意經濟結構的不均衡。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖二：台灣整體出口年增率、資通與視聽產品出口年增率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202510/20251002-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：財政部，2020/8~2025/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖三：台灣製造業PMI指數與其涵蓋的六大產業PMI指數，於2025年7、8月間之差異</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202510/20251002-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：國家發展委員會，2025/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI趨勢確立，支撐台股長線多頭</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台灣加權指數高度集中於電子產業，其中電子類股市值占比超過七成，而與 AI 相關的權值股更是指數的核心。例如，台積電、鴻海、聯發科、廣達與日月光等企業，皆為 AI 全球供應鏈的重要成員，估算AI相關類股，合計市值權重已約台股加權指數的58%（圖四）。這代表台股走勢與 AI 發展趨勢高度連動，AI 已成為推動台股長線行情的關鍵力量。&nbsp;<br><br>隨著AI類股近年大幅上漲，部分個股評價快速墊高，引發市場產生「是否出現泡沫」的疑慮，股價短期也難免震盪。&nbsp;<br><br>不過，與過往單純題材炒作不同，本波 AI 熱潮的背後有堅實基本面支撐。晶片大廠輝達持續繳出亮眼財報，全球雲端服務商亦同步擴大資本支出，均顯示 AI 投資正進入實質擴張期。隨著 AI 模型效能的提升與普及，應用領域正由資料中心延伸至機器人、自駕車等終端市場。&nbsp;<br><br>根據調研機構Precedence Research預估，全球AI 市場規模將自 2025 年的 7,576 億美元成長至 2034 年突破 3 兆美元（圖五）。台灣身為 AI 供應鏈核心，將顯著受惠於此結構性增長，預期 2025 與 2026 年台股指數企業盈餘可望維持雙位數成長。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202510/20251002-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>資料來源：CMoney，2025/9/10（圖四）、Precedence Research，2025/8/21（圖五） 註：圖四之AI概念股係採用CMoney概念股分類屬於ChatGPT、機器人、生物辨識、自動駕駛、指紋辨識、人工智慧、智慧醫療、智慧電網的上市股票。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">短期面臨評價與籌碼面的挑戰</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">雖然 AI 帶動的基本面成長趨勢確立，台股長線展望仍具支撐，但短期內台股仍須面對評價與籌碼結構上的壓力。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>截至2025年9月10日，台灣加權指數的整體本益比約為20倍，位於近五年區間（9-26倍）的偏高位置（圖六），其中電子類股的本益比為22倍，顯示市場對AI的成長性已有高度預期，倘若後續企業獲利前景不如預期樂觀，股價可能因評價壓力而出現震盪；籌碼面部分，台股上市融資餘額約新台幣2,699億元，雖較2024年底略低，但已較今年4月份低點回升約29%，且處於近五年偏高水準（圖七），顯示散戶參與度依舊積極。短線資金氛圍偏熱，使得市場在利多驅動時上漲速度加快，但同時也增加了情勢變動時的波動風險。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖六：近五年台灣加權指數本益比走勢</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202510/20251002-5.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2020/9/10~2025/9/10。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖七：近五年台股上市融資餘額走勢</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202510/20251002-6.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：CMoney，2020/9/10~2025/9/10。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI趨勢支撐台股長期表現，惟短線留意波動風險，建議維持區域及產業分散配置</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">AI 需求的持續擴展，為台股長線表現奠定了堅實基礎，然而，近期指數的快速上漲，已使市場評價偏高、籌碼輕微擁擠，此時若政策走向或外部情勢發生變動，短線波動幅度恐將加大。建議投資人採取分散策略，資產配置上以區域及產業分散為宜。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">主要股債市展望及說明</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">已開發股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">美國景氣略有放緩，但衰退風險仍低，整體物價尚未因關稅而顯著上漲，聯準會於9月重啟降息。企業獲利增長預期加速上修，籌碼面與技術面也尚未達到過熱極端，中期多頭趨勢應未改變。不過目前股市估值偏高，短期內仍可能出現震盪。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">新興股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">新興股市企業獲利預估穩定增長，評價亦仍處合理水準，加上美元弱勢趨勢持續，有助新興股市趨勢向上。不過，近期股市持續逼近過往高點，需留意短期可能漲多回檔風險，以及關注川普關稅政策後續對新興市場造成的潛在影響。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">信用債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">美國經濟溫和降溫，加上各信用債利差已處在歷史低檔，中期來看信用債市難以創造太多超額報酬，不過考量到信用債殖利率大多仍位在合理到偏高水準，預期將有助於支撐其總報酬表現。&nbsp;<br><br>其中，非投資等級債指數因存續期間較短、利率敏感度低，預期將有較佳的孳息效率，而新興市場債指數因存續期間較長，走勢往往較非投資等級債指數震盪，不過在當前利率風險有限且新興債指數殖利率仍高的環境下，故預期也將隨孳息而震盪向上。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">投資等級債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">隨著美國勞動市場需求的降溫，聯準會傾向逐步降低貨幣政策的限制性，長線降息的大方向將限制債市利率風險，加上當前投資等級債殖利率高達4~5%，預期投資等級債基金總報酬表現將有所支撐。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">商品市場</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">OPEC 將自 2025 年 10 月起每日增產 13.7 萬桶，產量提前恢復至 220 萬桶，在需求疲弱與中國經濟復甦不明下，恐壓抑原油與整體原物料表現，價格區間震盪機率高；但同時，美聯儲降息、美元走弱及去美元化趨勢持續支撐黃金與部分農產品需求，為商品指數注入正向動能，緩解能源供給增加的不利影響。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>投資新興市場應留意政治風險與經濟情勢變動之影響，波動性與風險程度可能較高。</strong>註：美國投資等級公司債係指彭博美國投資等級公司債指數、美國非投資等級公司債係指彭博美國非投資等級公司債指數、新興美元主權債係指彭博新興美元債指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。本資料僅供參考，不代表投資績效之保證。投資人申購基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不代表基金之績效，基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"2025下半年，隨著川普政府關稅政策明朗化，台積電有望獲半導體關稅豁免，AI類股持續推動台股上漲。雖然指數短期快速上揚，需留意短線波動風險，但展望未來，台灣經濟穩健、AI需求持續擴展，為台股長線表現奠定堅實基礎。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202510/view-6.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2025/10/01 13:56:50","startTime":"2025-10-01T13:56:50.0470000+08:00","metaTitle":"台股衝上歷史新高，後市怎麼看｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-10-01T14:08:06.4600000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/ed805f5b-87d3-4495-918f-c83d272581f9"}],"news01":[{"id":2877,"guid":"be215207-0a25-42cf-812a-d7b64d2957b6","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"降息與AI雙支撐，多頭行情有望續航","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">近來各國股市普遍上漲，主因關稅議題消退、美國降息循環重啟，加上經濟環境穩定及企業獲利上修！而展望2025年第四季，雖然短期漲幅較大，但在溫和降息情境、企業獲利成長，且股市情緒未過熱的加持下，多頭趨勢有望持續。建議可維持股票偏多配置，搭配債券基本部位。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">總經環境穩定：關稅議題消退，美國GDP預估增速緩步回升</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">從消費者支出及零售銷售年增率等經濟數據來看，美國內需仍保持穩健，目前未見經濟衰退傾向，而美國國內生產毛額(GDP)預估增速亦呈現緩步回升，目前已逐步上修至1~2%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國各季度GDP季增年率預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202510/20251007-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2025/9/19。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">降息循環重啟：通膨可控，未來一年聯準會有機會溫和降息</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國聯準會(Fed)主席Powell表示，關稅帶來的通膨壓力屬於一次性影響，風險已經下降，而通膨率短期上揚後，預期2026年回落，仍在可控範圍。根據Fed預測，2026年通膨率可望降至2.6%，2027年降至2.1%並接近長期目標2.0%。&nbsp;<br><br>事實上，Fed在2025年9月降息一碼，至明(2026)年底有機會再降息三碼，Fed主席並強調，目前是基於風險管理的降息，並非經濟瀕臨衰退。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">2025年9月份FOMC會議之經濟預測</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202510/20251007-5.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>個人消費支出物價指數(PCE)為聯準會關注的通膨指標；核心PCE為排除價格波動度較大的能源與食品項目。本文所稱之通膨率為PCE年增率。資料來源：2025/9/17之FOMC會議。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">企業獲利有撐：溫和降息有利股市，基本面支持股市多頭趨勢</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">整體而言，溫和降息環境有利股市，且通常代表景氣沒有衰退危機，現階段從基本面觀察，各產業獲利成長動能良好，全球股市企業獲利亦保持成長，根據Bloomberg等資料預期，2026年全球企業獲利成長約13%，而企業獲利上修後，較高的獲利增速可望支持較高的評價，而現階段情緒面指標並未過熱、市場廣度良好，股市多頭趨勢仍在。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">自1971年以來，未來一年聯準會升/降息情境下，美國標普500指數的年報酬率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202510/20251007-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>(註)上圖橫軸表示未來一年聯準會累積升息或降息幅度；縱軸表示符合該情境下標普500指數年報酬率之中位數。資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2025/9/19。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">今年以來，標普500指數中科技股與非科技股，預估EPS的變動幅度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202510/20251007-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2025/9/19</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台股續受惠AI：AI類股續領風騷，股市並無超漲與過熱疑慮</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">針對台股市場展望，由於AI仍在高速成長、商機龐大，出口強勁並推升2025年台灣經濟成長率，而2026年雖然基期墊高，但有望受惠民間消費而溫和成長。&nbsp;<br><br>根據Bloomberg資料顯示，預估未來一年台股企業獲利成長率15~20%，將支撐台灣經濟與企業獲利；而目前加權指數持續創新高，主要是反映基本面，況且年線乖離度未達極端，融資增速仍遠低於指數漲幅，尤其在更多產業加入上漲行列的情況下，更顯示市場寬度持續改善。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">台灣加權指數報酬表現及預期企業獲利成長率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202510/20251007-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2025/9/19</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。本資料僅供參考，不代表投資績效之保證。投資人申購基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不代表基金之績效，基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"關稅議題消退、經濟與企業獲利上修，支持股市上漲；雖然短期漲幅較大，但多頭趨勢有望持續。建議可維持股票偏多配置，搭配債券基本部位。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202510/view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"全球,股票,債券","postTime":"2025/10/09 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復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"強勢台股,定時定額0％手續費,存基金","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"10349389507.000000","roi3m":"10.46%","roi6m":"43.18%","roi1y":"111.55%","roi2y":"81.19%","roi3y":"194.69%","roiLaunch":"2,628.20%","roiY2D":"10.46%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"1","value02":"1","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"呂宏宇","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":3072,"guid":"429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"台灣加權指數四萬點*，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股近日在台積電領軍下氣勢如虹，大盤指數攻上4萬點歷史高峰，究竟這是結構虛胖，或者是台灣資金活水充沛，台灣錢淹腳目帶來的股市榮景再現？從企業獲利的基本面觀察，AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環，現階段台股評價預估仍在合理水準。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI貢獻台灣出口增長，台灣經濟成長率上修</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股今(2026)年來漲幅已將近4成，主要是由基本面所推動。根據Bloomberg統計資料，2023年下半年起，資訊通訊產品出口年增率高達50%以上，由此可見AI對台灣出口增長的貢獻。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>此外，台灣經濟成長率也頻頻上修，包括央行、主計總處、中經院、台經院等研究機構資料顯示，2026年台灣GDP成長率預期達7%以上，傲視全球。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">各機構對2026年台灣GDP成長率預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：各機構，截至2026/4/27（圖中標示期間代表公布預測值之時間）。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，企業獲利的成長性與差異，也反映在股價表現上，除了高獲利支撐較高的評價，也是市場資金熱點，而大型科技龍頭獲利增長能見度仍佳，且經常優於預期，目前市場預期到明後年，台積電EPS年增率仍有機會達20%~25%。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，台股企業獲利連續正增長期間，有機會突破過去水準，若能拉長連續獲利的期間，越有機會使台股評價上修，而台灣加權指數從2萬5漲到4萬點，幾乎都由企業獲利推動，顯示AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台股評價預估仍在合理水準</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據Bloomberg資料顯示，2026年台灣各主要產業的獲利呈現高成長，2027年電子業預估獲利年成長達20%~40%，將可望支撐評價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/24。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，台灣股市的國際地位提升，想要參與AI與半導體投資，全球資金就該來台股市場尋寶。AI帶來的高成長仍在進行中，除了大量的基礎建設與算力需求，還有更先進的技術與產品規格。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>舉例來說， AI從訓練走向推論與應用，所需的資料中心成長更為快速，而台灣AI供應鏈的優勢，在於能快速與有效解決問題、滿足客戶需求，AI大趨勢將可望提供台灣超越亞洲國家的成長機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">全球市值前十大的股市與公司</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2026/4/24。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>＊2026/4/27台灣加權指數盤中高點為40,194點，為首次觸及四萬點。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/download/20260428.pdf\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\">了解更多並下載報告</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI為台灣相關企業獲利，帶來20%、40%、甚至60%以上的年成長率，台灣供應鏈的優勢，在於設計與應變的能力與速度及客戶的緊密合作。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/809318f2-bd33-4aed-a8e4-b9bf879b3b50view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣,全球","postTime":"2026/04/29 10:18:03","startTime":"2026-04-29T10:16:06.7200000+08:00","metaTitle":"台灣加權指數四萬點，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-29T10:48:29.9500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1"},{"id":3057,"guid":"f52146d1-e354-4225-bdb2-c22b8033a913","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"AI代理時代開啟，台灣供應鏈中長期趨勢正向","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">今(2026)年以來台股在全球股市中表現相對佳，儘管近期有戰事干擾，以及清明節前出現賣壓，但節後台股強勢反彈，展現出台股的韌性。其中，AI仍是台股最強的護城河！</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI應用場景由雲端延伸至邊緣運算，AI規格更升級</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">3月份輝達GTC大會釋出新一代應用方向，供應鏈已進入升級循環；在此趨勢下，台廠憑藉技術與產能優勢，持續受惠成長紅利。<br><br>另觀察台灣加權指數結構，前十大權值股中約有55%(占指數市值*)直接受惠於AI成長動能，有助於指數呈現易漲難跌的格局。若戰爭不確定性逐步消化，市場風險偏好可望回溫，台股仍有機會延續創高動能。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">展望後市，台股短期雖因戰況不明而震盪，但中長期基本面依然強韌</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">AI 進入代理時代</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">Nvidia 發表新一代晶片，並強調 AI 代理時代來臨，模型已從訓練驅動轉向推論驅動。意味著伺服器、散熱、高階連接器等零組件的規格升級將持續加速，對台灣硬體供應鏈有利。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">記憶體展望</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">記憶體族群在短期漲多後受消息面影響（如 Google 新壓縮技術傳聞）而技術性回檔，但長期而言，AI 資料中心對高頻寬記憶體（HBM）與大容量儲存的需求仍大幅成長，結構性缺貨並未改變。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">核心布局策略</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">仍鎖定在 AI 規格提升的實質受惠者（如先進封裝設備、高速傳輸、散熱），以及具備缺貨與漲價潛力的族群。後續待地緣政治干擾減弱，具備技術優勢的相關個股應仍具反彈機會。</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>*資料來源：臺灣證券交易所，2026/4/2。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI發展由訓練進入推論階段，貢獻企業獲利成長動能強勁、台股維持合理評價，短期雖有震盪但長多趨勢不變。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-64.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣","postTime":"2026/04/10 13:46:36","startTime":"2026-04-10T13:46:36.7570000+08:00","metaTitle":"AI代理時代開啟，台灣供應鏈中長期趨勢正向｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-10T13:50:16.2070000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/f52146d1-e354-4225-bdb2-c22b8033a913"}],"news01":[{"id":3072,"guid":"429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"台灣加權指數四萬點*，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股近日在台積電領軍下氣勢如虹，大盤指數攻上4萬點歷史高峰，究竟這是結構虛胖，或者是台灣資金活水充沛，台灣錢淹腳目帶來的股市榮景再現？從企業獲利的基本面觀察，AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環，現階段台股評價預估仍在合理水準。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI貢獻台灣出口增長，台灣經濟成長率上修</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股今(2026)年來漲幅已將近4成，主要是由基本面所推動。根據Bloomberg統計資料，2023年下半年起，資訊通訊產品出口年增率高達50%以上，由此可見AI對台灣出口增長的貢獻。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>此外，台灣經濟成長率也頻頻上修，包括央行、主計總處、中經院、台經院等研究機構資料顯示，2026年台灣GDP成長率預期達7%以上，傲視全球。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">各機構對2026年台灣GDP成長率預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：各機構，截至2026/4/27（圖中標示期間代表公布預測值之時間）。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，企業獲利的成長性與差異，也反映在股價表現上，除了高獲利支撐較高的評價，也是市場資金熱點，而大型科技龍頭獲利增長能見度仍佳，且經常優於預期，目前市場預期到明後年，台積電EPS年增率仍有機會達20%~25%。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，台股企業獲利連續正增長期間，有機會突破過去水準，若能拉長連續獲利的期間，越有機會使台股評價上修，而台灣加權指數從2萬5漲到4萬點，幾乎都由企業獲利推動，顯示AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台股評價預估仍在合理水準</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據Bloomberg資料顯示，2026年台灣各主要產業的獲利呈現高成長，2027年電子業預估獲利年成長達20%~40%，將可望支撐評價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/24。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，台灣股市的國際地位提升，想要參與AI與半導體投資，全球資金就該來台股市場尋寶。AI帶來的高成長仍在進行中，除了大量的基礎建設與算力需求，還有更先進的技術與產品規格。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>舉例來說， AI從訓練走向推論與應用，所需的資料中心成長更為快速，而台灣AI供應鏈的優勢，在於能快速與有效解決問題、滿足客戶需求，AI大趨勢將可望提供台灣超越亞洲國家的成長機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">全球市值前十大的股市與公司</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2026/4/24。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>＊2026/4/27台灣加權指數盤中高點為40,194點，為首次觸及四萬點。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/download/20260428.pdf\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\">了解更多並下載報告</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI為台灣相關企業獲利，帶來20%、40%、甚至60%以上的年成長率，台灣供應鏈的優勢，在於設計與應變的能力與速度及客戶的緊密合作。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/809318f2-bd33-4aed-a8e4-b9bf879b3b50view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣,全球","postTime":"2026/04/29 10:18:03","startTime":"2026-04-29T10:16:06.7200000+08:00","metaTitle":"台灣加權指數四萬點，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-29T10:48:29.9500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/03.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/03.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=03","url2":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&Fund=03","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1,"updateTime":"2025-11-21T09:55:38.3830000+08:00","guid":"f88bc13c-d6f9-4f40-a97b-89b4969d1a30","fundID":"01","twNameFull":"復華復華基金","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh-Hwa Fund","ec002":"","twName":"復華","pnav":"113.25","navDate":"2026/04/29","change":"0.59","changeRange":"0.52%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">主要布局獲利成長力較佳及預估本益比偏低之國內上市櫃公司股票，透過分散配置，降低單一產業風險</li><li 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復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","prepayRate":"          ","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"8008615561.000000","roi3m":"11.98%","roi6m":"43.95%","roi1y":"114.31%","roi2y":"101.14%","roi3y":"174.93%","roiLaunch":"678.60%","roiY2D":"11.98%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"1","value02":"1","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"呂宏宇","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[{"name":"王萬里","isShow":0,"experience":""},{"name":"蔡盛宇","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"news":[{"id":3072,"guid":"429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"台灣加權指數四萬點*，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股近日在台積電領軍下氣勢如虹，大盤指數攻上4萬點歷史高峰，究竟這是結構虛胖，或者是台灣資金活水充沛，台灣錢淹腳目帶來的股市榮景再現？從企業獲利的基本面觀察，AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環，現階段台股評價預估仍在合理水準。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI貢獻台灣出口增長，台灣經濟成長率上修</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股今(2026)年來漲幅已將近4成，主要是由基本面所推動。根據Bloomberg統計資料，2023年下半年起，資訊通訊產品出口年增率高達50%以上，由此可見AI對台灣出口增長的貢獻。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>此外，台灣經濟成長率也頻頻上修，包括央行、主計總處、中經院、台經院等研究機構資料顯示，2026年台灣GDP成長率預期達7%以上，傲視全球。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">各機構對2026年台灣GDP成長率預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：各機構，截至2026/4/27（圖中標示期間代表公布預測值之時間）。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，企業獲利的成長性與差異，也反映在股價表現上，除了高獲利支撐較高的評價，也是市場資金熱點，而大型科技龍頭獲利增長能見度仍佳，且經常優於預期，目前市場預期到明後年，台積電EPS年增率仍有機會達20%~25%。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，台股企業獲利連續正增長期間，有機會突破過去水準，若能拉長連續獲利的期間，越有機會使台股評價上修，而台灣加權指數從2萬5漲到4萬點，幾乎都由企業獲利推動，顯示AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台股評價預估仍在合理水準</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據Bloomberg資料顯示，2026年台灣各主要產業的獲利呈現高成長，2027年電子業預估獲利年成長達20%~40%，將可望支撐評價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/24。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，台灣股市的國際地位提升，想要參與AI與半導體投資，全球資金就該來台股市場尋寶。AI帶來的高成長仍在進行中，除了大量的基礎建設與算力需求，還有更先進的技術與產品規格。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>舉例來說， AI從訓練走向推論與應用，所需的資料中心成長更為快速，而台灣AI供應鏈的優勢，在於能快速與有效解決問題、滿足客戶需求，AI大趨勢將可望提供台灣超越亞洲國家的成長機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">全球市值前十大的股市與公司</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2026/4/24。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>＊2026/4/27台灣加權指數盤中高點為40,194點，為首次觸及四萬點。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/download/20260428.pdf\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\">了解更多並下載報告</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI為台灣相關企業獲利，帶來20%、40%、甚至60%以上的年成長率，台灣供應鏈的優勢，在於設計與應變的能力與速度及客戶的緊密合作。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/809318f2-bd33-4aed-a8e4-b9bf879b3b50view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣,全球","postTime":"2026/04/29 10:18:03","startTime":"2026-04-29T10:16:06.7200000+08:00","metaTitle":"台灣加權指數四萬點，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-29T10:48:29.9500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1"},{"id":3067,"guid":"6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 08:54:53","startTime":"2026-04-23T08:54:49.4100000+08:00","metaTitle":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-23T08:58:43.1630000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63"}],"news01":[{"id":3072,"guid":"429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"台灣加權指數四萬點*，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股近日在台積電領軍下氣勢如虹，大盤指數攻上4萬點歷史高峰，究竟這是結構虛胖，或者是台灣資金活水充沛，台灣錢淹腳目帶來的股市榮景再現？從企業獲利的基本面觀察，AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環，現階段台股評價預估仍在合理水準。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI貢獻台灣出口增長，台灣經濟成長率上修</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股今(2026)年來漲幅已將近4成，主要是由基本面所推動。根據Bloomberg統計資料，2023年下半年起，資訊通訊產品出口年增率高達50%以上，由此可見AI對台灣出口增長的貢獻。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>此外，台灣經濟成長率也頻頻上修，包括央行、主計總處、中經院、台經院等研究機構資料顯示，2026年台灣GDP成長率預期達7%以上，傲視全球。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">各機構對2026年台灣GDP成長率預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：各機構，截至2026/4/27（圖中標示期間代表公布預測值之時間）。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，企業獲利的成長性與差異，也反映在股價表現上，除了高獲利支撐較高的評價，也是市場資金熱點，而大型科技龍頭獲利增長能見度仍佳，且經常優於預期，目前市場預期到明後年，台積電EPS年增率仍有機會達20%~25%。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，台股企業獲利連續正增長期間，有機會突破過去水準，若能拉長連續獲利的期間，越有機會使台股評價上修，而台灣加權指數從2萬5漲到4萬點，幾乎都由企業獲利推動，顯示AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台股評價預估仍在合理水準</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據Bloomberg資料顯示，2026年台灣各主要產業的獲利呈現高成長，2027年電子業預估獲利年成長達20%~40%，將可望支撐評價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/24。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，台灣股市的國際地位提升，想要參與AI與半導體投資，全球資金就該來台股市場尋寶。AI帶來的高成長仍在進行中，除了大量的基礎建設與算力需求，還有更先進的技術與產品規格。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>舉例來說， AI從訓練走向推論與應用，所需的資料中心成長更為快速，而台灣AI供應鏈的優勢，在於能快速與有效解決問題、滿足客戶需求，AI大趨勢將可望提供台灣超越亞洲國家的成長機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">全球市值前十大的股市與公司</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2026/4/24。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>＊2026/4/27台灣加權指數盤中高點為40,194點，為首次觸及四萬點。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/download/20260428.pdf\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\">了解更多並下載報告</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI為台灣相關企業獲利，帶來20%、40%、甚至60%以上的年成長率，台灣供應鏈的優勢，在於設計與應變的能力與速度及客戶的緊密合作。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/809318f2-bd33-4aed-a8e4-b9bf879b3b50view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣,全球","postTime":"2026/04/29 10:18:03","startTime":"2026-04-29T10:16:06.7200000+08:00","metaTitle":"台灣加權指數四萬點，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-29T10:48:29.9500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/01.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/01.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=01","url2":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&Fund=01","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":3,"updateTime":"2026-03-13T09:26:30.4270000+08:00","guid":"7796d297-d049-4eee-8fa7-42122e053a3e","fundID":"06","twNameFull":"復華數位經濟基金","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh-Hwa Digital Economy Fund","ec002":"","twName":"數位經濟","pnav":"176.04","navDate":"2026/04/29","change":"1.41","changeRange":"0.81%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul><li>主要投資於網路通訊等數位相關產業，由上而下挑選經營模式及團隊有機會成功或已成功之產業，再從中挑選具高度競爭力和成長性之國內上市櫃公司。</li><li>核心持股基本面紮實，可望兼具股價成長力以及回檔支撐較強之特性，並將觀察市場結構、循環性與波動度變化，加強風險控管。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2000/05/10","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"兆豐國際商業銀行","ec009":"RR5","ec012":"1.60%","ec013":"0.140%","ec014":"2.00%(含)以下","ec020":"國內股票型","ec020_sort":5082,"ec022":"","ec024":"台灣","ec026":"股票型","ec027":"","ec028":"","ec029":"","ec030":"T+3日","ec033":"","ec034":"","ec036":"兆豐國際商業銀行國外部","ec037":"復華數位經濟基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec040":"0","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":1,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":1,"isRename":"0","renameArticle":"","metaTitle":"復華數位經濟基金 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","prepayRate":"          ","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"強勢台股,定時定額0％手續費","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"5076847556.000000","roi3m":"11.01%","roi6m":"21.54%","roi1y":"66.89%","roi2y":"43.16%","roi3y":"100.85%","roiLaunch":"1,147.50%","roiY2D":"11.01%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"1","value02":"1","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"顧克勤","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":3067,"guid":"6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 08:54:53","startTime":"2026-04-23T08:54:49.4100000+08:00","metaTitle":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-23T08:58:43.1630000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63"},{"id":3065,"guid":"a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美伊戰爭對股市影響降低</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週美國雖然宣布封鎖荷姆茲海峽，但並未改變股市上漲趨勢。由於美伊可望再重啟談判，且川普釋出已近達成協議，因此股市並未再受美伊戰爭發展，以及油價大幅波動所影響；而美國聯準會(FED)經濟褐皮書，以及週初請失業救濟金人數，皆顯示美國經濟穩定。&nbsp;<br><br>AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然週四台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong><br><br><strong>總計一週（2026/4/13-4/17）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲3.2%、4.5%、6.8%、7.5%；台股週漲3.9%以36804點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑5個bps至4.26%，美元指數跌0.5%至98.2，<strong><u>油價(WTI)週跌13.2%至每桶83.85美元</u></strong>，黃金價格反彈1.9%至每盎司4879.6美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI發展及美國經濟穩定支撐股市正向趨勢</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">因預期美伊可望達成協議，雖然油價仍維持高檔震盪，戰爭結束後包括受損煉油及天然氣設施亦仍需時間恢復，但股市反應未來，且美國能源自主性高，雖然短期物價增速亦將因此上揚，但中長期對油價的預期將可望維持穩定，中長期通膨預期亦未明顯上升。上週公佈的美國3月生產者物價指數(PPI)月增0.5%、核心PPI月增0.1%，皆低於預期。<br><br>FED公布經濟褐皮書，雖因油價上漲將產生潛在物價壓力，但美國整體經濟及就業仍維持穩定，週初請失業救濟金人數降至20.7萬人低檔，再加上AI的樂觀發展，美伊戰爭對美國經濟並未產生太大影響，利率期貨亦顯市FED於年底前可望維持利率不變。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台積電樂觀展望延續，台股長期多頭趨勢不變</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台積電法說會展望持續樂觀，受AI與高效能運算需求強勁帶動，3奈米製程加速擴產並成為成長主力。第一季營收與獲利表現亮眼，稅後淨利顯著成長，毛利率達66.2%並創新高，顯示先進製程帶動獲利能力提升。公司將資本支出展望提高至約520～560億美元偏向上緣上準，用於擴充先進製程與封裝產能。展望第二季，營收預估持續成長、年增率將達四成以上，毛利率維持高檔水準。<br><br>總括而言，台積電延續對於2026年業績展望三成以上成長的預測，且表示AI需求仍非常強勁，佔台股四成以上權重的台積電，以及台灣AI關鍵供應鏈角色的獨特地位，在AI由訓練開始進入推論驅動的階段，算力需求及相關基礎設施建立仍將快速成長，未來2~3年台股企業展望仍正向發展。選擇產品規格、數量、及價格同時提升的公司，繼續長期持有，仍是合適的投資方式。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-90.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/20 09:21:33","startTime":"2026-04-20T09:21:33.3330000+08:00","metaTitle":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-20T09:26:56.7500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea"}],"news01":[{"id":3067,"guid":"6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 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LIFE GOAL BALANCE FUND","ec002":"","twName":"人生目標","pnav":"145.7686","navDate":"2026/04/29","change":"1.4697","changeRange":"1.02%","qnav_l":4,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">國內平衡型基金，依總體經濟、資金動能、價值評估及技術指標等，調整資產配置。</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">於股市高檔時降低持股或以期貨避險來降低風險，於股市低檔時搭配高速成長股與景氣循環股的操作來增進收益。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2003/03/03","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"永豐商業銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"1.20%","ec013":"0.120%","ec014":"2.00%(含)以下","ec020":"國內平衡型","ec020_sort":5083,"ec022":"","ec024":"台灣","ec026":"平衡型","ec027":"","ec028":"","ec030":"T+3日","ec036":"永豐商業銀行世貿分行","ec037":"復華人生目標基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec040":"0","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":1,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":1,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華人生目標基金 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class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI貢獻台灣出口增長，台灣經濟成長率上修</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股今(2026)年來漲幅已將近4成，主要是由基本面所推動。根據Bloomberg統計資料，2023年下半年起，資訊通訊產品出口年增率高達50%以上，由此可見AI對台灣出口增長的貢獻。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>此外，台灣經濟成長率也頻頻上修，包括央行、主計總處、中經院、台經院等研究機構資料顯示，2026年台灣GDP成長率預期達7%以上，傲視全球。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">各機構對2026年台灣GDP成長率預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：各機構，截至2026/4/27（圖中標示期間代表公布預測值之時間）。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，企業獲利的成長性與差異，也反映在股價表現上，除了高獲利支撐較高的評價，也是市場資金熱點，而大型科技龍頭獲利增長能見度仍佳，且經常優於預期，目前市場預期到明後年，台積電EPS年增率仍有機會達20%~25%。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，台股企業獲利連續正增長期間，有機會突破過去水準，若能拉長連續獲利的期間，越有機會使台股評價上修，而台灣加權指數從2萬5漲到4萬點，幾乎都由企業獲利推動，顯示AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台股評價預估仍在合理水準</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據Bloomberg資料顯示，2026年台灣各主要產業的獲利呈現高成長，2027年電子業預估獲利年成長達20%~40%，將可望支撐評價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/24。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，台灣股市的國際地位提升，想要參與AI與半導體投資，全球資金就該來台股市場尋寶。AI帶來的高成長仍在進行中，除了大量的基礎建設與算力需求，還有更先進的技術與產品規格。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>舉例來說， AI從訓練走向推論與應用，所需的資料中心成長更為快速，而台灣AI供應鏈的優勢，在於能快速與有效解決問題、滿足客戶需求，AI大趨勢將可望提供台灣超越亞洲國家的成長機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">全球市值前十大的股市與公司</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2026/4/24。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>＊2026/4/27台灣加權指數盤中高點為40,194點，為首次觸及四萬點。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/download/20260428.pdf\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\">了解更多並下載報告</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI為台灣相關企業獲利，帶來20%、40%、甚至60%以上的年成長率，台灣供應鏈的優勢，在於設計與應變的能力與速度及客戶的緊密合作。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/809318f2-bd33-4aed-a8e4-b9bf879b3b50view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣,全球","postTime":"2026/04/29 10:18:03","startTime":"2026-04-29T10:16:06.7200000+08:00","metaTitle":"台灣加權指數四萬點，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-29T10:48:29.9500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1"},{"id":3068,"guid":"20194137-6145-42b5-80d3-1b22833f8efc","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美伊重啟談判預期及科技股企業財報提振股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">重要金融事件摘要</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>美國特使及伊朗外長啟程至巴基斯坦，兩方重啟談判預期升溫。而美國欲延長停火，仍維持荷姆茲海峽封鎖，並要求伊朗提出統一的談判方案。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>美國聯準會(Fed)主席被提名人Warsh於參議院聽證會強調央行獨立性，表示AI可不推升通膨而振興生產力、提供降息空間，另欲有新通膨分析框架、弱化利率點陣圖重要性、縮減央行資產負債表等改革。美國司法部週五撤銷對現任主席Powell的刑事調查。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>台灣3月外銷訂單年增65.9%遠優於統計處預估38至42%區間，金額首度突破900億美元關卡，首季外銷訂單累計年增50%創歷年單季新高，統計處預估4月仍將成長近五成。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/4.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>美國製造業PMI初值升至54為近四年新高、服務業亦升至51.3；歐元區製造業PMI初值升至52.2、服務業反降至47.4跌破榮枯分水嶺；日本製造業PMI初值升至54.9、服務業降至51.2。缺貨及漲價擔憂致使企業囤貨補庫、價格分項則見通膨擔憂。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/5.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>據Refinitiv截至4/24統計彙整，S&amp;P500指數成分已139間企業公布首季財報，預估企業獲利成長16.1%較上週14.4%上調、營收年增9.7%，獲利營收優於預期家數比例各為81.3%及77.4%。未來一週Visa、Amazon、Alphabet、Meta、Microsoft、Apple等178間企業公布財報展望。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">上週股市及各資產表現</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">MSCI全球股週跌0.2%，資訊科技類股週漲3.4%領漲、能源股亦漲2.8%，醫療健護類股週跌3.8%相對疲弱。美股道瓊工業指數週跌0.4%而S&amp;P500指數漲0.6%，Nasdaq漲1.5%，費城半導體指數週漲10%、已連續18個交易日收紅。道瓊歐洲600指數跌2.5%，日經225指數漲2.1%。MSCI新興股漲0.8%。<br><br>台灣金管會放寬單一個股持股上限制25%推升台積電股價創高，台股加權股價指數週漲5.78%收於38,932.4點，櫃買指數週漲2.47%收於381.54點。中國滬深300指數週漲0.9%、香港恆生指數週跌0.7%。<br><br>其他資產表現，美國10年期公債殖利率週升5.3bps至4.30%。美元指數漲0.4%至98.53。美伊談判進展牽動油礦金走勢，西德州油價週漲14.3%至每桶94.4美元，期銅價跌1.4%，原物料市場(CRB指數)漲4.5%。美元計價之全球公債跌0.7%而投等債指數跌0.3%，高收債及新興美元債各跌0.2%及0.5%。富時已開發國家REITs指數週跌1.6%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">中長期金融市場風險因素觀察</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>短期油價因中東戰事波動，但中長期通膨壓力減輕，主要央行降息後股市可望續強。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>關稅、貨幣政策限制性或中東戰事延長導致經濟衰退及企業獲利下修風險。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>若央行升息、銀行放貸收緊使金融資產、房地產或因泡沫擔憂而修正，將增加金融風險。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/4.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>中國房市價量數據、經濟復甦進展及托底政策推出之成效。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">2026至2027年MSCI全球股市指數及各主要國家企業獲利成長及預估本益比</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">主要國家股市</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年獲利年增率預估(%)</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2027年獲利年增率預估(%)</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年預估本益比</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2027年預估本益比</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">過去10年本益比區間</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">MSCI全球指數</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+22.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+15.4</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">18.5</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">16.3</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">12.5~28.1</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">美國S&amp;P 500</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+19.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+17.8</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">21.9</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">19.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">14.0~31.8</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">道瓊歐洲600指數</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+12.7</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+11.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">15.4</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">14.2</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">10.7~26.1</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">中國上證指數</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+14.4</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+10.2</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">12.0</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">10.4</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">9.5~17.3</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">台灣股市</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+39.6</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+22.7</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">22.0</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">17.8</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">8.8~24.0</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">MSCI新興市場</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+45.7</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+16.5</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">12.2</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">10.4</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">9.8~22.0</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：IBES Thomson Reuters，Bloomberg，2026/4/24。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"美國聯準會主席被提名人Warsh強調央行獨立性，表示AI可提供降息空間，另欲有新通膨分析框架、弱化利率點陣圖重要性、縮減央行資產負債表等改革。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-14.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/27 09:24:08","startTime":"2026-04-27T09:24:08.2700000+08:00","metaTitle":"美伊重啟談判預期及科技股企業財報提振股市｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-27T09:26:59.6000000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/20194137-6145-42b5-80d3-1b22833f8efc"}],"news01":[{"id":3072,"guid":"429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"台灣加權指數四萬點*，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股近日在台積電領軍下氣勢如虹，大盤指數攻上4萬點歷史高峰，究竟這是結構虛胖，或者是台灣資金活水充沛，台灣錢淹腳目帶來的股市榮景再現？從企業獲利的基本面觀察，AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環，現階段台股評價預估仍在合理水準。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI貢獻台灣出口增長，台灣經濟成長率上修</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股今(2026)年來漲幅已將近4成，主要是由基本面所推動。根據Bloomberg統計資料，2023年下半年起，資訊通訊產品出口年增率高達50%以上，由此可見AI對台灣出口增長的貢獻。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>此外，台灣經濟成長率也頻頻上修，包括央行、主計總處、中經院、台經院等研究機構資料顯示，2026年台灣GDP成長率預期達7%以上，傲視全球。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">各機構對2026年台灣GDP成長率預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：各機構，截至2026/4/27（圖中標示期間代表公布預測值之時間）。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，企業獲利的成長性與差異，也反映在股價表現上，除了高獲利支撐較高的評價，也是市場資金熱點，而大型科技龍頭獲利增長能見度仍佳，且經常優於預期，目前市場預期到明後年，台積電EPS年增率仍有機會達20%~25%。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，台股企業獲利連續正增長期間，有機會突破過去水準，若能拉長連續獲利的期間，越有機會使台股評價上修，而台灣加權指數從2萬5漲到4萬點，幾乎都由企業獲利推動，顯示AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台股評價預估仍在合理水準</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據Bloomberg資料顯示，2026年台灣各主要產業的獲利呈現高成長，2027年電子業預估獲利年成長達20%~40%，將可望支撐評價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/24。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，台灣股市的國際地位提升，想要參與AI與半導體投資，全球資金就該來台股市場尋寶。AI帶來的高成長仍在進行中，除了大量的基礎建設與算力需求，還有更先進的技術與產品規格。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>舉例來說， AI從訓練走向推論與應用，所需的資料中心成長更為快速，而台灣AI供應鏈的優勢，在於能快速與有效解決問題、滿足客戶需求，AI大趨勢將可望提供台灣超越亞洲國家的成長機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">全球市值前十大的股市與公司</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2026/4/24。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>＊2026/4/27台灣加權指數盤中高點為40,194點，為首次觸及四萬點。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/download/20260428.pdf\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\">了解更多並下載報告</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI為台灣相關企業獲利，帶來20%、40%、甚至60%以上的年成長率，台灣供應鏈的優勢，在於設計與應變的能力與速度及客戶的緊密合作。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/809318f2-bd33-4aed-a8e4-b9bf879b3b50view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣,全球","postTime":"2026/04/29 10:18:03","startTime":"2026-04-29T10:16:06.7200000+08:00","metaTitle":"台灣加權指數四萬點，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-29T10:48:29.9500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/11.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/11.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=11","url2":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&Fund=11","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1089,"updateTime":"2026-03-18T08:57:12.4370000+08:00","guid":"b6bf052d-2c18-4877-8679-29d37f0aadb7","fundID":"13","twNameFull":"復華神盾基金","sortValue":0,"enName":"FUH-HWA AEGIS FUND","ec002":"","twName":"神盾","pnav":"102.2352","navDate":"2026/04/29","change":"0.7665","changeRange":"0.76%","qnav_l":4,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">國內平衡型基金，依景氣循環等指標分析決定持股比重，亦可適時運用股票指數期貨避險。</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">尋找獲利成長的股票，以價值成長股和市場主流類股相輔相成，觀察基本面、技術面等資訊進行動態調整。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2004/04/20","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"上海商業儲蓄銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"1.20%","ec013":"0.095%","ec014":"2.00%(含)以下","ec020":"國內平衡型","ec020_sort":5083,"ec022":"","ec024":"台灣","ec026":"平衡型","ec028":"","ec030":"T+3日","ec036":"上海商業儲蓄銀行儲蓄部","ec037":"復華神盾基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":1,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":1,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華神盾基金 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"4779317721.000000","roi3m":"13.51%","roi6m":"35.21%","roi1y":"81.52%","roi2y":"57.21%","roi3y":"108.86%","roiLaunch":"652.29%","roiY2D":"13.51%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"1","value02":"1","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"趙建彰","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":3072,"guid":"429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"台灣加權指數四萬點*，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股近日在台積電領軍下氣勢如虹，大盤指數攻上4萬點歷史高峰，究竟這是結構虛胖，或者是台灣資金活水充沛，台灣錢淹腳目帶來的股市榮景再現？從企業獲利的基本面觀察，AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環，現階段台股評價預估仍在合理水準。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI貢獻台灣出口增長，台灣經濟成長率上修</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股今(2026)年來漲幅已將近4成，主要是由基本面所推動。根據Bloomberg統計資料，2023年下半年起，資訊通訊產品出口年增率高達50%以上，由此可見AI對台灣出口增長的貢獻。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>此外，台灣經濟成長率也頻頻上修，包括央行、主計總處、中經院、台經院等研究機構資料顯示，2026年台灣GDP成長率預期達7%以上，傲視全球。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">各機構對2026年台灣GDP成長率預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：各機構，截至2026/4/27（圖中標示期間代表公布預測值之時間）。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，企業獲利的成長性與差異，也反映在股價表現上，除了高獲利支撐較高的評價，也是市場資金熱點，而大型科技龍頭獲利增長能見度仍佳，且經常優於預期，目前市場預期到明後年，台積電EPS年增率仍有機會達20%~25%。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，台股企業獲利連續正增長期間，有機會突破過去水準，若能拉長連續獲利的期間，越有機會使台股評價上修，而台灣加權指數從2萬5漲到4萬點，幾乎都由企業獲利推動，顯示AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台股評價預估仍在合理水準</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據Bloomberg資料顯示，2026年台灣各主要產業的獲利呈現高成長，2027年電子業預估獲利年成長達20%~40%，將可望支撐評價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/24。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，台灣股市的國際地位提升，想要參與AI與半導體投資，全球資金就該來台股市場尋寶。AI帶來的高成長仍在進行中，除了大量的基礎建設與算力需求，還有更先進的技術與產品規格。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>舉例來說， AI從訓練走向推論與應用，所需的資料中心成長更為快速，而台灣AI供應鏈的優勢，在於能快速與有效解決問題、滿足客戶需求，AI大趨勢將可望提供台灣超越亞洲國家的成長機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">全球市值前十大的股市與公司</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2026/4/24。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>＊2026/4/27台灣加權指數盤中高點為40,194點，為首次觸及四萬點。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/download/20260428.pdf\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\">了解更多並下載報告</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI為台灣相關企業獲利，帶來20%、40%、甚至60%以上的年成長率，台灣供應鏈的優勢，在於設計與應變的能力與速度及客戶的緊密合作。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/809318f2-bd33-4aed-a8e4-b9bf879b3b50view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣,全球","postTime":"2026/04/29 10:18:03","startTime":"2026-04-29T10:16:06.7200000+08:00","metaTitle":"台灣加權指數四萬點，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-29T10:48:29.9500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1"},{"id":3057,"guid":"f52146d1-e354-4225-bdb2-c22b8033a913","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"AI代理時代開啟，台灣供應鏈中長期趨勢正向","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">今(2026)年以來台股在全球股市中表現相對佳，儘管近期有戰事干擾，以及清明節前出現賣壓，但節後台股強勢反彈，展現出台股的韌性。其中，AI仍是台股最強的護城河！</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI應用場景由雲端延伸至邊緣運算，AI規格更升級</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">3月份輝達GTC大會釋出新一代應用方向，供應鏈已進入升級循環；在此趨勢下，台廠憑藉技術與產能優勢，持續受惠成長紅利。<br><br>另觀察台灣加權指數結構，前十大權值股中約有55%(占指數市值*)直接受惠於AI成長動能，有助於指數呈現易漲難跌的格局。若戰爭不確定性逐步消化，市場風險偏好可望回溫，台股仍有機會延續創高動能。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">展望後市，台股短期雖因戰況不明而震盪，但中長期基本面依然強韌</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">AI 進入代理時代</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">Nvidia 發表新一代晶片，並強調 AI 代理時代來臨，模型已從訓練驅動轉向推論驅動。意味著伺服器、散熱、高階連接器等零組件的規格升級將持續加速，對台灣硬體供應鏈有利。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">記憶體展望</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">記憶體族群在短期漲多後受消息面影響（如 Google 新壓縮技術傳聞）而技術性回檔，但長期而言，AI 資料中心對高頻寬記憶體（HBM）與大容量儲存的需求仍大幅成長，結構性缺貨並未改變。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">核心布局策略</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">仍鎖定在 AI 規格提升的實質受惠者（如先進封裝設備、高速傳輸、散熱），以及具備缺貨與漲價潛力的族群。後續待地緣政治干擾減弱，具備技術優勢的相關個股應仍具反彈機會。</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>*資料來源：臺灣證券交易所，2026/4/2。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI發展由訓練進入推論階段，貢獻企業獲利成長動能強勁、台股維持合理評價，短期雖有震盪但長多趨勢不變。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-64.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣","postTime":"2026/04/10 13:46:36","startTime":"2026-04-10T13:46:36.7570000+08:00","metaTitle":"AI代理時代開啟，台灣供應鏈中長期趨勢正向｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-10T13:50:16.2070000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/f52146d1-e354-4225-bdb2-c22b8033a913"}],"news01":[{"id":3072,"guid":"429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"台灣加權指數四萬點*，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股近日在台積電領軍下氣勢如虹，大盤指數攻上4萬點歷史高峰，究竟這是結構虛胖，或者是台灣資金活水充沛，台灣錢淹腳目帶來的股市榮景再現？從企業獲利的基本面觀察，AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環，現階段台股評價預估仍在合理水準。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI貢獻台灣出口增長，台灣經濟成長率上修</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股今(2026)年來漲幅已將近4成，主要是由基本面所推動。根據Bloomberg統計資料，2023年下半年起，資訊通訊產品出口年增率高達50%以上，由此可見AI對台灣出口增長的貢獻。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>此外，台灣經濟成長率也頻頻上修，包括央行、主計總處、中經院、台經院等研究機構資料顯示，2026年台灣GDP成長率預期達7%以上，傲視全球。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">各機構對2026年台灣GDP成長率預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：各機構，截至2026/4/27（圖中標示期間代表公布預測值之時間）。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，企業獲利的成長性與差異，也反映在股價表現上，除了高獲利支撐較高的評價，也是市場資金熱點，而大型科技龍頭獲利增長能見度仍佳，且經常優於預期，目前市場預期到明後年，台積電EPS年增率仍有機會達20%~25%。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，台股企業獲利連續正增長期間，有機會突破過去水準，若能拉長連續獲利的期間，越有機會使台股評價上修，而台灣加權指數從2萬5漲到4萬點，幾乎都由企業獲利推動，顯示AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台股評價預估仍在合理水準</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據Bloomberg資料顯示，2026年台灣各主要產業的獲利呈現高成長，2027年電子業預估獲利年成長達20%~40%，將可望支撐評價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/24。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，台灣股市的國際地位提升，想要參與AI與半導體投資，全球資金就該來台股市場尋寶。AI帶來的高成長仍在進行中，除了大量的基礎建設與算力需求，還有更先進的技術與產品規格。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>舉例來說， AI從訓練走向推論與應用，所需的資料中心成長更為快速，而台灣AI供應鏈的優勢，在於能快速與有效解決問題、滿足客戶需求，AI大趨勢將可望提供台灣超越亞洲國家的成長機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">全球市值前十大的股市與公司</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2026/4/24。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>＊2026/4/27台灣加權指數盤中高點為40,194點，為首次觸及四萬點。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/download/20260428.pdf\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\">了解更多並下載報告</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI為台灣相關企業獲利，帶來20%、40%、甚至60%以上的年成長率，台灣供應鏈的優勢，在於設計與應變的能力與速度及客戶的緊密合作。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/809318f2-bd33-4aed-a8e4-b9bf879b3b50view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣,全球","postTime":"2026/04/29 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Heirloom Balance Fund","ec002":"","twName":"傳家","pnav":"87.7110","navDate":"2026/04/29","change":"0.7062","changeRange":"0.81%","qnav_l":4,"contents":"<ul><li>國內平衡型基金，判斷投資風險來調整持股，並可運用期貨避險或增加固定收益投資工具之配置。</li><li>選股考量個股的安全性、流動性、收益性及成長性，選擇優質標的，追求長期獲利累積。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"1999/08/10","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"永豐商業銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"1.20%","ec013":"0.150%","ec014":"2.00%(含)以下","ec020":"國內平衡型","ec020_sort":5083,"ec022":"","ec024":"台灣","ec026":"平衡型","ec028":"","ec030":"T+2日","ec036":"永豐商業銀行世貿分行","ec037":"復華傳家基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":1,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":1,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華傳家基金 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"6268259347.000000","roi3m":"15.31%","roi6m":"39.88%","roi1y":"93.12%","roi2y":"77.75%","roi3y":"138.01%","roiLaunch":"542.83%","roiY2D":"15.31%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"1","value02":"1","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"趙建彰","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[{"name":"黃俊瑞","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"news":[{"id":3057,"guid":"f52146d1-e354-4225-bdb2-c22b8033a913","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"AI代理時代開啟，台灣供應鏈中長期趨勢正向","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">今(2026)年以來台股在全球股市中表現相對佳，儘管近期有戰事干擾，以及清明節前出現賣壓，但節後台股強勢反彈，展現出台股的韌性。其中，AI仍是台股最強的護城河！</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI應用場景由雲端延伸至邊緣運算，AI規格更升級</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">3月份輝達GTC大會釋出新一代應用方向，供應鏈已進入升級循環；在此趨勢下，台廠憑藉技術與產能優勢，持續受惠成長紅利。<br><br>另觀察台灣加權指數結構，前十大權值股中約有55%(占指數市值*)直接受惠於AI成長動能，有助於指數呈現易漲難跌的格局。若戰爭不確定性逐步消化，市場風險偏好可望回溫，台股仍有機會延續創高動能。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">展望後市，台股短期雖因戰況不明而震盪，但中長期基本面依然強韌</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">AI 進入代理時代</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">Nvidia 發表新一代晶片，並強調 AI 代理時代來臨，模型已從訓練驅動轉向推論驅動。意味著伺服器、散熱、高階連接器等零組件的規格升級將持續加速，對台灣硬體供應鏈有利。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">記憶體展望</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">記憶體族群在短期漲多後受消息面影響（如 Google 新壓縮技術傳聞）而技術性回檔，但長期而言，AI 資料中心對高頻寬記憶體（HBM）與大容量儲存的需求仍大幅成長，結構性缺貨並未改變。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">核心布局策略</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">仍鎖定在 AI 規格提升的實質受惠者（如先進封裝設備、高速傳輸、散熱），以及具備缺貨與漲價潛力的族群。後續待地緣政治干擾減弱，具備技術優勢的相關個股應仍具反彈機會。</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>*資料來源：臺灣證券交易所，2026/4/2。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI發展由訓練進入推論階段，貢獻企業獲利成長動能強勁、台股維持合理評價，短期雖有震盪但長多趨勢不變。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-64.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣","postTime":"2026/04/10 13:46:36","startTime":"2026-04-10T13:46:36.7570000+08:00","metaTitle":"AI代理時代開啟，台灣供應鏈中長期趨勢正向｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-10T13:50:16.2070000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/f52146d1-e354-4225-bdb2-c22b8033a913"},{"id":3053,"guid":"af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美、伊表態結束戰爭意願，FED升息預期暫消退，股市觸底反彈</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市在美、伊戰爭預期可能將結束，伊朗總統亦表示願意結束戰爭，雖然川普演說表示將繼續攻擊伊朗，直至與伊朗達成協議、油價繼續彈升，但伊朗開始放寬通行荷莫茲海峽條件，使已因美伊戰爭修正近一個月的股市風險情緒好轉，美股波段下跌10%左右後出現反彈。<br><br>台股在週一及週二強勢股補跌後，搭配美、伊戰爭可望近尾聲預期，以及週二台股融資餘額劇減百億台幣以上，週三台股亦現大幅反彈。<br><br>而美國聯準會(FED)主席Powell暗示，短期不會因油價大漲改變貨幣政策立場，使升息預期減弱，美國公債殖利率回落，亦降低了抑制股市的力量。<br><br>總計<strong>一週（2026/3/30-4/3）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲1.7%、3.0%、4.1%、5.0%，台股下跌1.6%以32572點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑9個bps至4.35%，美元指數持平於100.18，<u>油價(WTI)再漲11.9%至每桶111.54美元</u>，黃金價格反彈3.4%至每盎司4679.70美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">股市風險情緒好轉觸底反彈，戰爭延續時間及油價走勢，仍為關注焦點</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美伊戰爭造成股市下跌，主要即來自於伊朗封鎖荷莫茲海峽造成油價大漲，引發通膨及各國央行可能升息擔憂。在美、伊皆有結束戰爭的意願，以及荷莫茲海峽船隻通行數開始上升下，股市風險情緒獲得改善。<br><br>不過，短期<u>油價仍因為戰火未停歇持續走高</u>，美伊戰爭是否能如川普所言於二至三週內結束，以及荷莫茲海峽的封鎖情況，攸關油價及未來通膨發展及後續對經濟的影響。<br><br>而上週FED主席<u>Powell亦表示不會因短期油價大漲調整貨幣政策</u>，原本投資人對FED升息預期機率上升的狀況改變，FED繼續維持利率政策不變的預期回升（年底前利率維持不變的機率為69.5%，2026/4/3），使公債殖利率回落，亦助股市評價提升。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國消費及就業穩定，經濟維持擴張，股市已達合理修正幅度</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">過去在經濟未衰退狀況下，重大事件造成美股合理修正幅度者在10~20%間。而<u>此次美股主要指數最大修正幅度已達9.8%至16.6%</u>(見下表)。<br><br>而美國經濟仍保持穩定，2月核心零售銷售月增0.5%優於預期；非農就業新增人數17.8萬人（預期6.5萬人）、失業率降至4.3 %亦明顯優於預期。美國消費動能及就業市場保持穩定，經濟仍維持擴張狀態。<br><br><u>台股在上週三大幅反彈前亦已回檔10.9%</u>，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線(32,328點)附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">因美伊戰爭造成美、台股波段跌幅</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">主要指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">道瓊指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">S&amp;P 500</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">Nasdaq</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">費城半導體</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">台股</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段高點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">50512</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7002</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">23988</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">8498</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">35579</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段低點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">45057</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">6317</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">20690</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7084</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">31705</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">跌幅</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-9.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-13.70%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-16.60%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.90%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：計算自速霸贏家，2026/4。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI進入推論階段，基礎設施及關鍵零組件需求持續爆發，基本面仍正向發展</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2006年AI發展雖已步入第四年，但因新的AI龐大潛在市場出現，AI使用人數及滲透率快速上升，科技相關基礎設施架構全面改變，加上算力需求指數級成長，以及Nvidia等大型科技公司主導技術發展、計畫性提升產品規格及應用層面快速拓展，AI發展及科技業成長動能仍未見減速。<br><br>而此亦繼續提供台股企業獲利成長動能綿延不絕的力量。在股市已修正之際，評價已處合理水準，在美、伊戰爭影響漸減後，股市仍將反應基本面正向發展。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"台股短線的波段跌幅為10.9%，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-99.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/07 10:15:01","startTime":"2026-04-07T10:15:01.1100000+08:00","metaTitle":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-07T10:21:00.2230000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c"}],"news01":[{"id":3057,"guid":"f52146d1-e354-4225-bdb2-c22b8033a913","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"AI代理時代開啟，台灣供應鏈中長期趨勢正向","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">今(2026)年以來台股在全球股市中表現相對佳，儘管近期有戰事干擾，以及清明節前出現賣壓，但節後台股強勢反彈，展現出台股的韌性。其中，AI仍是台股最強的護城河！</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI應用場景由雲端延伸至邊緣運算，AI規格更升級</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">3月份輝達GTC大會釋出新一代應用方向，供應鏈已進入升級循環；在此趨勢下，台廠憑藉技術與產能優勢，持續受惠成長紅利。<br><br>另觀察台灣加權指數結構，前十大權值股中約有55%(占指數市值*)直接受惠於AI成長動能，有助於指數呈現易漲難跌的格局。若戰爭不確定性逐步消化，市場風險偏好可望回溫，台股仍有機會延續創高動能。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">展望後市，台股短期雖因戰況不明而震盪，但中長期基本面依然強韌</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">AI 進入代理時代</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">Nvidia 發表新一代晶片，並強調 AI 代理時代來臨，模型已從訓練驅動轉向推論驅動。意味著伺服器、散熱、高階連接器等零組件的規格升級將持續加速，對台灣硬體供應鏈有利。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">記憶體展望</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">記憶體族群在短期漲多後受消息面影響（如 Google 新壓縮技術傳聞）而技術性回檔，但長期而言，AI 資料中心對高頻寬記憶體（HBM）與大容量儲存的需求仍大幅成長，結構性缺貨並未改變。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">核心布局策略</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">仍鎖定在 AI 規格提升的實質受惠者（如先進封裝設備、高速傳輸、散熱），以及具備缺貨與漲價潛力的族群。後續待地緣政治干擾減弱，具備技術優勢的相關個股應仍具反彈機會。</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>*資料來源：臺灣證券交易所，2026/4/2。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI發展由訓練進入推論階段，貢獻企業獲利成長動能強勁、台股維持合理評價，短期雖有震盪但長多趨勢不變。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-64.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣","postTime":"2026/04/10 13:46:36","startTime":"2026-04-10T13:46:36.7570000+08:00","metaTitle":"AI代理時代開啟，台灣供應鏈中長期趨勢正向｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-10T13:50:16.2070000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/f52146d1-e354-4225-bdb2-c22b8033a913"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/04.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/04.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=04","url2":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&Fund=04","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1020,"updateTime":"2025-01-06T17:51:57.8430000+08:00","guid":"8adbb919-9f9e-4bcc-a173-38416234fa1d","fundID":"07","twNameFull":"復華傳家二號基金","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh-Hwa Heirloom No. 2 Balance Fund","ec002":"","twName":"傳家二號","pnav":"131.8006","navDate":"2026/04/29","change":"1.3239","changeRange":"1.01%","qnav_l":4,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">國內平衡型基金，觀察景氣循環與市場氣氛來調整股票與債券等資產配置，亦可運用股票指數期貨避險。</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">考量個股的安全性、流動性、收益性及成長性，尋求長期獲利穩步成長之優質公司。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2000/09/06","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"永豐商業銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"1.20%","ec013":"0.120%","ec014":"2.00%(含)以下","ec020":"國內平衡型","ec020_sort":5083,"ec022":"","ec024":"台灣","ec026":"平衡型","ec028":"","ec030":"T+3日","ec034":"","ec036":"永豐商業銀行世貿分行","ec037":"復華傳家二號基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":1,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p style=\"margin-left:0px;\">本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p><span style=\"color:rgb(109,109,109);\">資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</span></p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec411":"","ec412":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","etf012":"","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":1,"isRename":"0","renameArticle":"/services/news_list/content/news/c3a65ca8-b020-4df2-89ac-aeed0ccda836?page=1","metaTitle":"復華傳家二號基金 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"強勢台股,打造第二筆退休金","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"16699921201.000000","roi3m":"14.63%","roi6m":"37.25%","roi1y":"87.13%","roi2y":"70.71%","roi3y":"112.79%","roiLaunch":"872.95%","roiY2D":"14.63%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"1","value02":"1","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"郭家宏","isShow":0,"experience":"<p>經歷：復華投信股票研究處投資經理</p>"}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":3067,"guid":"6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 08:54:53","startTime":"2026-04-23T08:54:49.4100000+08:00","metaTitle":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-23T08:58:43.1630000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63"},{"id":3065,"guid":"a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美伊戰爭對股市影響降低</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週美國雖然宣布封鎖荷姆茲海峽，但並未改變股市上漲趨勢。由於美伊可望再重啟談判，且川普釋出已近達成協議，因此股市並未再受美伊戰爭發展，以及油價大幅波動所影響；而美國聯準會(FED)經濟褐皮書，以及週初請失業救濟金人數，皆顯示美國經濟穩定。&nbsp;<br><br>AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然週四台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong><br><br><strong>總計一週（2026/4/13-4/17）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲3.2%、4.5%、6.8%、7.5%；台股週漲3.9%以36804點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑5個bps至4.26%，美元指數跌0.5%至98.2，<strong><u>油價(WTI)週跌13.2%至每桶83.85美元</u></strong>，黃金價格反彈1.9%至每盎司4879.6美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI發展及美國經濟穩定支撐股市正向趨勢</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">因預期美伊可望達成協議，雖然油價仍維持高檔震盪，戰爭結束後包括受損煉油及天然氣設施亦仍需時間恢復，但股市反應未來，且美國能源自主性高，雖然短期物價增速亦將因此上揚，但中長期對油價的預期將可望維持穩定，中長期通膨預期亦未明顯上升。上週公佈的美國3月生產者物價指數(PPI)月增0.5%、核心PPI月增0.1%，皆低於預期。<br><br>FED公布經濟褐皮書，雖因油價上漲將產生潛在物價壓力，但美國整體經濟及就業仍維持穩定，週初請失業救濟金人數降至20.7萬人低檔，再加上AI的樂觀發展，美伊戰爭對美國經濟並未產生太大影響，利率期貨亦顯市FED於年底前可望維持利率不變。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台積電樂觀展望延續，台股長期多頭趨勢不變</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台積電法說會展望持續樂觀，受AI與高效能運算需求強勁帶動，3奈米製程加速擴產並成為成長主力。第一季營收與獲利表現亮眼，稅後淨利顯著成長，毛利率達66.2%並創新高，顯示先進製程帶動獲利能力提升。公司將資本支出展望提高至約520～560億美元偏向上緣上準，用於擴充先進製程與封裝產能。展望第二季，營收預估持續成長、年增率將達四成以上，毛利率維持高檔水準。<br><br>總括而言，台積電延續對於2026年業績展望三成以上成長的預測，且表示AI需求仍非常強勁，佔台股四成以上權重的台積電，以及台灣AI關鍵供應鏈角色的獨特地位，在AI由訓練開始進入推論驅動的階段，算力需求及相關基礎設施建立仍將快速成長，未來2~3年台股企業展望仍正向發展。選擇產品規格、數量、及價格同時提升的公司，繼續長期持有，仍是合適的投資方式。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-90.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/20 09:21:33","startTime":"2026-04-20T09:21:33.3330000+08:00","metaTitle":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-20T09:26:56.7500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea"}],"news01":[{"id":3067,"guid":"6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 08:54:53","startTime":"2026-04-23T08:54:49.4100000+08:00","metaTitle":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-23T08:58:43.1630000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/07.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/07.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=07","url2":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&Fund=07","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1007,"updateTime":"2026-01-09T09:28:24.8230000+08:00","guid":"aa214cb6-fd65-4466-89c5-cd1746aa555f","fundID":"29","twNameFull":"復華大中華中小策略基金","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa Greater China Mid and Small Cap Fund","ec002":"","twName":"大中華中小策略","pnav":"18.43","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"0.08","changeRange":"0.44%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">大中華區經濟成長速度仍快， 加上中國持續推動民營企業發展，中小型股票具成長商機。</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">研究團隊深入研究中小型公司， 尋找具成長潛力之個股，並根據多重面向判斷大中華區股市多空，靈活決定出較適投資策略。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2010/12/27","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"玉山商業銀行","ec009":"RR5","ec012":"2.00%","ec013":"0.240%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資股票型","ec020_sort":5084,"ec022":"","ec024":"大中華地區","ec026":"股票型","ec027":"依公開說明書規定","ec028":"","ec030":"T+4日","ec036":"玉山商業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華大中華中小策略基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec040":"0","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":1,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華大中華中小策略基金 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"801581746.000000","roi3m":"20.84%","roi6m":"38.28%","roi1y":"70.36%","roi2y":"61.81%","roi3y":"64.84%","roiLaunch":"32.20%","roiY2D":"20.84%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"楊書婷","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":3052,"guid":"ff93bf7d-0584-41bc-b83f-f11937d40bc5","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"2026年初軟體股為何重挫？AI加速發展下的產業變局與投資機會","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2026年初，美國軟體股經歷了被市場稱為「軟體末日」（Software-mageddon）的劇烈震盪，Anthropic於年初陸續推出Claude相關模型與工具，升高市場對AI可能改寫既有軟體服務商業模式的疑慮，S&amp;P軟體與服務指數在短短兩個月內下跌約 21%、市值大幅蒸發；與此同時，美國科技巨頭亦因鉅額資本支出的投資報酬率前景不明而承壓，受此影響，S&amp;P 500指數整體表現相對受限。&nbsp;<br><br>然而，在軟體股哀鴻遍野之際，硬體、能源與公用事業卻逆勢走強（圖一）。這顯示AI熱潮並非消退，而是隨著產業發展進入新階段，相關類股表現已出現更明顯分化。&nbsp;<br><br>本文將先從AI發展現況切入，說明為何AI主線並未改變，再進一步探討AI加速落地下，哪些產業環節較可能受惠、哪些類型則需審慎看待。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖一：2026年以來（截至2026/2/27），美股大盤、美股七巨頭、硬體、軟體、公用事業、原物料、能源類股累積報酬率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260401-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。&nbsp;</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/2/27。&nbsp;<br>註：美股大盤採標普500指數、美股七巨頭採彭博美國七大科技巨頭指數（含Microsoft、Amazon、Nvidia、Alphabet、Tesla、Meta、Apple）、硬體類股採費城半導體指數、軟體類股採標普500軟體與服務指數、公用事業類股採標普500公用事業指數、原物料類股採標普500原物料指數、能源類股採標普500能源類指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI發展的現況與關鍵挑戰</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">從當前產業發展來看，AI熱潮並未消退，而是進入需求持續擴張、成本快速下降，且瓶頸逐步轉向基礎設施的新階段，主要可從以下三個面向觀察：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">算力投資規模持續擴大</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">儘管軟體股估值修正，但基礎設施投入未減。預估至2027財年，美國四大雲端服務供應商（CSP）的資本支出合計將突破 6,700億美元（圖二），這為硬體供應鏈提供了支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">單位成本崩跌，AI模型應用門檻降低</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">AI使用成本正以指數級速度下降。相較於2023年GPT-4的綜合使用成本*約為每百萬Token 37.5美元，目前的GPT-5 mini與Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite成本已降至每百萬Token 0.6美元左右，跌幅超過95%。這雖有利於AI普及，卻也侵蝕了缺乏護城河的單一功能軟體之定價能力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">從「算力荒」到「能源荒」</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">AI的瓶頸正由晶片供給轉向電力與電力基礎設施。國際能源署（International Energy Agency, IEA）預估全球資料中心用電量未來五年年複合成長率將達14%（圖三）。電力供給與變壓器等硬體建設週期長、供給剛性強，已成為制約AI擴張的關鍵節點。</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">*綜合成本是根據各AI模型官方公布之輸入（提問）與輸出（回答）Token定價，並以市場研究常用之假設（輸入佔75%、輸出佔25%），進行加權估算而成。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖二：美國四大CSP企業資本支出</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260401-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/11。註1：2026~2027年為Bloomberg預估。註2：年度係採用各企業之財年。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖三：全球AI資料中心用電量</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260401-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：國際能源署（International Energy Agency, IEA），2025/4。&nbsp;<br>註1：2025~2030年為IEA估計值。註2：太瓦時（Terawatt-hour, TWh）為衡量能量的單位，1太瓦時=10億度電。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI加速滲透，帶動產業重塑與獲利重分配</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">進一步從產業環節觀察，AI帶來的影響並不一致，不同商業模式與供應鏈位置，未來所面臨的機會與壓力將明顯分化（表一）。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">標準化流程型業務，較可能面臨獲利壓力</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">若企業的獲利模式主要建立在標準化、可重複的流程處理上，未來較可能面臨AI加速滲透所帶來的效率壓力。這類業務未必會被完全取代，但其營運模式預期將由大量人工執行，逐步轉向「AI自動化處理、人工決策覆核」的新架構。&nbsp;<br><br>例如客服、內容製作、基礎程式開發與財務對帳等流程型服務，未來都可能朝此方向調整；若企業無法及時完成轉型，獲利空間與評價均可能承受壓力。這也是今年以來軟體股表現疲弱的重要背景之一：市場擔心的不只是短期成長放緩，更是部分軟體與服務型業務原有的差異化與定價能力，可能在AI普及後受到侵蝕。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">掌握基礎建設與關鍵瓶頸者，較具受惠機會</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">與AI基礎建設擴張直接相關，且具技術門檻、供給限制或需求剛性的環節，受惠機會相對較高。例如，隨著AI日益深入企業流程，資安防護、身分驗證與資料合規等需求可望持續提升；在資料中心擴建與運轉帶動下，電力設備、基礎建設及銅等環節，需求能見度亦相對明確。&nbsp;<br>此外，在硬體供應鏈方面，半導體先進封裝、散熱、電源等領域，因仍具技術門檻與供應限制，中長期前景亦相對偏正向。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">表一：AI產業分化地圖</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260401-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/3/11。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI主線未變，但投資焦點已由追逐題材轉向挑選贏家</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">整體而言，AI 主線並未改變，但評價邏輯已發生轉變。過去市場對AI題材普遍給予高評價的階段已逐步告一段落，如今市場更在意：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">資本支出回收能力</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">科技巨頭的高額投入能否轉化為實際營收。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">關鍵資源掌控力</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">是否掌握電力、水冷散熱或專利封裝等硬性供給門檻。&nbsp;<br><br>考量AI產業分化與市場辨認贏家的過程中，股市表現仍可能反覆震盪，因此在資產配置上，建議以分散為原則，並適度聚焦於掌握關鍵技術、基礎設施與資源瓶頸的相關標的，以因應市場分化與波動延續。&nbsp;<br><strong>(以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">主要股債市展望及說明</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">已開發股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">美伊戰爭雖將推升能源價格，但衝突若能在短期內降溫，對經濟與物價長期結構性影響仍將有限。景氣與企業獲利增長持續，地緣政治事件或使市場短期波動加大，但不影響中期趨勢。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">新興股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">以東北亞為主的新興市場受惠AI ，景氣與企業獲利增長加速、評價仍相對低於已開發股市，多頭趨勢可望持續。然而，因短期漲幅較大，須留意可能出現漲多回檔壓力。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">信用債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">私募信貸不透明度、AI顛覆性及地緣政治事件紛擾等因素，使得信用利差微幅上升，但仍保持在歷史相對低位。考量到美國景氣仍溫和增長，預期整體信用利差大幅擴大的可能性不高，預期信用債指數在短線波動後仍將因孳息而緩步上漲。&nbsp;<br><br>其中，非投資等級債指數因存續期間較短、利率敏感度低，預期將有較佳的孳息效率，而新興市場債指數因存續期間較長，走勢往往較非投資等級債指數震盪，不過在當前利率風險有限且新興債指數殖利率仍高的環境下，故預期也將隨孳息而震盪向上。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">投資等級債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">關稅影響消退及勞動需求放緩有利通膨降溫，但美伊戰爭又為前景添增不確定性，Fed短期內或將陷入觀望，不過根據過往經驗，地緣政治事件往往只會帶來短期波動、不易扭轉整體經濟及金融市場趨勢，加上目前投資等級債指數殖利率約在4~5%，殖利率將為總報酬提供支撐。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">商品市場</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">儘管美國與以色列轟炸伊朗，帶動國際油價短期大幅上漲，但市場多認為，若伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽，亦可能衝擊其外匯收入，因此是否具備長期封鎖條件仍有待觀察。&nbsp;<br><br>從期貨市場來看，目前中長天期油價漲幅明顯低於短天期，顯示市場對此次衝突可能造成的長期能源供給衝擊仍持較審慎看法。若後續戰事未進一步擴大，原物料價格走勢仍可能以震盪整理為主。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>投資新興市場應留意政治風險與經濟情勢變動之影響，波動性與風險程度可能較高。</strong>註：美國投資等級公司債係指彭博美國投資等級公司債指數、美國非投資等級公司債係指彭博美國非投資等級公司債指數、新興美元主權債係指彭博新興美元債指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。本資料僅供參考，不代表投資績效之保證。投資人申購基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不代表基金之績效，基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"過去市場對AI題材普遍給予高評價的時期已逐漸結束，如今投資人更關注的是，科技巨頭的大規模投入能否轉化為實際營收，以及企業是否掌握關鍵資源與技術。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/02 09:30:42","startTime":"2026-04-02T09:30:34.2000000+08:00","metaTitle":"2026年初軟體股為何重挫？AI加速發展下的產業變局與投資機會｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-02T09:32:49.5130000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/ff93bf7d-0584-41bc-b83f-f11937d40bc5"},{"id":2963,"guid":"c146e83a-26a5-4aeb-aaca-445aa26532b4","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"在K型分化中前行 — AI浪潮與降息循環下的2026年市場展望","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">回顧2025年，全球金融市場波動顯著。上半年因美國川普政府推動大規模加徵對等關稅，4月份一度引發全球風險情緒快速降溫，股市短線明顯回檔；所幸其後美國陸續與多國達成貿易共識，加上AI投資持續推進，科技供應鏈強勢反彈，並帶動全球股市回升。&nbsp;<br><br>然而，進入11月後，市場逐步反映評價偏高與AI變現進程不確定性等疑慮，獲利了結賣壓升溫，科技股走弱帶動主要股市指數自高檔回落。從2025年初至11月底為止，標普500指數上漲16%、台灣加權指數上漲20%、美國十年期公債殖利率下滑56個基點至4.01%，全球主要債市亦上漲8~11%不等（圖一）。&nbsp;<br><br>從經濟與金融市場結構觀察，美國勞動市場雖呈現溫和降溫，但AI的蓬勃發展不僅持續提振股市表現，也更集中地推動高資產族群財富累積，進而支撐消費與經濟韌性，使「K型分化」格局愈發鮮明。邁向2026年，在高度分化且變數交織的宏觀環境下，美國聯準會將如何校準貨幣政策路徑？AI相關股票能否持續作為支撐市場的重要動能？&nbsp;<br><br>本文將聚焦上述核心議題，提供投資人市場脈絡與研判框架，以因應新一年的挑戰與機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖一：2025年以來，全球主要股債市漲跌幅</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/20260102-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/1/1~2025/11/28。註：全球股市採MSCI AC世界指數（美元計價）、美股採標普500指數（美元計價）、歐股採道瓊歐洲600指數（歐元計價）、陸股採中國上證指數（人民幣計價）、台股採台灣加權指數（台幣計價）、新興股市採MSCI新興市場指數（美元計價）、投資等級債採彭博美國投資等級公司美元債指數、非投資等級債採彭博美國非投資等級美元債指數、新興市場債採彭博新興市場美元主權債指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">疲弱的勞動需求 vs. AI驅動的強勁資本支出，美國K型經濟分化加劇</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2025年以來，美國經濟的K型分化趨勢更為明確，高收入族群的財富與收入持續攀升，相較之下，低收入家庭在收入成長停滯與物價壓力未歇的雙重擠壓下，生活負擔沉重。推動此一分化的重要因素之一，正是AI浪潮所帶來的結構性改變。&nbsp;<br><br>AI投資不僅提升企業生產力，也推升金融資產價格。由於美國金融資產的持有高度集中於中高收入族群，股市上漲有效支撐其消費與投資信心，成為支撐整體經濟的重要力量。然而，企業面對景氣不確定性時，普遍採取較為保守的人力策略，包括放緩招募、凍結新增職缺及遇缺不補等；同時AI技術也開始在部分初階與重複性職位中展現替代效果，從而使勞動需求降溫。&nbsp;<br><br>值得留意的是，目前美國企業整體資本支出明顯增加，但招聘活動卻在降溫，顯示企業更傾向以技術與設備投資取代人力擴張（圖二）。此一分化亦進一步反映在消費行為上，中低收入族群因實質所得成長有限，逐步縮減非必要支出，而高收入族群受惠於資產價格上漲，高端零售、奢侈消費與旅遊需求仍具韌性。&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，美國經濟並非全面走弱，而是在AI資本支出與高端消費支撐下，呈現「部分領域強、部分領域弱」的高度分化K型成長格局。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖二：美國企業資本支出與非農企業雇用率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/20260102-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：FRED。非農雇用率採月資料，截至2025/10；美國整體企業資本支出採季資料，截至2025年第二季。註：美國JOLTS非農雇用率指的是每個月美國非農業部門新增或重新聘用員工的人數占整體就業人數的比率，反映美國勞動力需求情況。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動下行風險增，通膨和緩，2026年聯準會謹慎降息趨勢不變</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在K型經濟背景下，美國總體經濟的風險焦點正逐步由「通膨是否失控」轉向「勞動市場轉弱」。近期數據顯示，雖然失業率並未顯著攀升，但新增就業人數與職位空缺均呈現放緩趨勢，顯示勞動需求持續降溫，就業市場的下行風險正逐步升高。&nbsp;<br><br>通膨方面，目前美國PCE通膨率約為2.7%，仍略高於聯準會2%的長期目標，但推升通膨的壓力已逐漸緩解。隨著勞動市場降溫，薪資增速趨於穩定；同時，油價維持相對低檔，有助於壓抑能源與整體成本壓力；此外，若川普政府後續在民意壓力下調降部分關稅，相關商品物價壓力亦可望進一步減輕。綜合上述發展，預期通膨再度大幅上行的風險相對有限（圖三）。&nbsp;<br><br>在此環境下，2026年聯準會仍具備進一步降息的政策空間，以避免經濟過度降溫。然而，過去錯判通膨為暫時性的經驗，使聯準會在政策決策上更趨謹慎，委員間意見亦可能出現分歧，決策將高度仰賴後續經濟數據表現。整體而言，預期2026年聯準會將維持謹慎的降息步調，仍有助於美國公債殖利率維持趨勢性下行（圖四），並支撐金融市場風險偏好。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖三：美國通膨數據實際及預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/20260102-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/11/28，註：個人消費支出物價指數(PCE)為聯準會關注的通膨指標；核心PCE為排除價格波動度較大的能源與食品項目。PCE實際資料至2025年9月，虛線為Bloomberg於2025/11/28之預估值。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖四：美國十年期公債殖利率及聯準會政策利率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/20260102-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/12/11。2026年~2028年政策利率為2025年12月FOMC會議所公布之政策利率點陣圖。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">科技巨頭2025年第三季業績和未來指引普遍優於預期，AI投資熱潮尚未見頂</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">AI是支撐2025年市場的重要趨勢。雖然科技股於11月因評價偏高而出現技術性修正，但整體AI生態基本面仍然強勁，全球半導體銷售金額持續創下歷史新高（圖五），顯示上升趨勢尚未出現反轉訊號。&nbsp;<br><br>2025年第三季科技巨頭的業績與財測普遍優於市場預期，雲端服務、數位廣告及硬體終端等領域皆有亮眼表現；同時企業對AI的資本支出仍持續加碼，而從自由現金流觀察，主要科技龍頭仍維持充沛的現金部位（圖六），財務體質依舊穩健。&nbsp;<br><br>更重要的是，近期AI應用也正從科技業擴散至醫療、金融、製造、流程自動化等多個領域，顯示全球成長動能有機會由過去「AI一枝獨秀」逐步轉向「多點開花」，投資機會可望更為多元。&nbsp;<br><br>不過，仍須留意在高基期環境下，市場對財報與財測的容錯度相對降低，未來若科技巨頭無法滿足市場的高度期待，股價波動可能放大。總結而言，2026年AI與科技股投資前景仍具吸引力，但選股難度與波動風險同步上升，風險管理與資產分散配置將更為重要。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖五：全球半導體銷售金額與年增率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/20260102-5.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2020/10/31~2025/10/31，月資料。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖六：美國科技七巨頭自由現金流</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/20260102-6.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。 </strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2015/3/31~2025/9/30，季資料。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">全球經濟仍穩健，企業獲利預估持續成長</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">展望2026年，全球主要經濟體可望延續溫和成長的態勢。美國方面，在降息循環持續推進與AI發展前景帶動下，經濟仍展現一定韌性，2026年GDP增速有望達2.1%；歐元區方面，製造業PMI已自2025年的深度萎縮中逐步回升，後續在德國推動財政擴張，以及內需仍具支撐力等因素挹注下，2026年經濟預期可維持溫和擴張；台灣則持續受惠於AI相關需求強勁，半導體與關鍵零組件出口動能維持高檔，仍將是支撐整體經濟成長的主要驅動力。儘管2026年成長率可能較前期回落，仍可望維持約2.1%的成長（圖七）。&nbsp;<br><br>在全球景氣維持韌性、關稅政策不確定性相對降溫，以及降息帶動融資成本逐步下滑的背景下，企業獲利動能可望獲得支撐。根據路透社預估，2026年全球主要市場企業獲利成長幅度可望介於9.1%～22.5%（圖七），為後續市場表現奠定良好的基礎。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖七：各國經濟成長年增率及主要指數之企業獲利年增率預估</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/20260102-7.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg、IBES Thomson Reuters，2025/11/28。註：全球股市採MSCI AC世界指數、美股採標普500指數、歐股採道瓊歐洲600指數、陸股採中國上證指數、台股採台灣加權指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">2026年展望仍偏正向，惟高基期下宜採均衡分散的資產配置</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">聯準會處在謹慎降息階段，加上AI帶動的跨產業投資需求持續發酵，可望為市場提供中期動能。目前來看，2026年多頭趨勢尚未出現明確反轉訊號，惟在風險性資產基期較高的背景下，政策變化、資金動向與市場情緒等因素，都可能為金融市場帶來較大波動。因此，建議投資人採取較為均衡且分散的資產配置策略，以提升投資組合韌性，因應快速變化的市場環境。&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">主要股債市展望及說明</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">已開發股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">美國勞動市場景氣偏弱，但整體景氣並無衰退風險，通膨預期持續向下，聯準會政策將維持降息趨勢不變。AI投資與應用加速發展、2026年企業獲利增長持續加速，中期股市多頭趨勢並未改變。近期籌碼面與技術面逐漸由過熱水準略為降溫，不過以美國為主的已開發股市評價仍略為偏高，短期內仍可能出現震盪風險。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">新興股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">新興市場股市企業獲利預估穩健增長，評價仍維持合理水準，加上資金仍未顯著流入，多頭趨勢可望持續。然而，仍須留意股市短期內可能出現的漲多回檔風險，並密切關注川普關稅政策的後續發展對新興市場的潛在影響。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">信用債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">信用利差已處歷史低位，信用債超額報酬空間有限，但美國整體景氣仍維持溫和增長，短期利差大幅擴大機率低，加上信用債殖利率大多仍位在合理水準，且Fed處在降息周期，整體環境仍有利於信用債基金因孳息有緩步走高。&nbsp;<br><br>其中，非投資等級債指數因存續期間較短、利率敏感度低，預期將有較佳的孳息效率，而新興市場債指數因存續期間較長，走勢往往較非投資等級債指數震盪，不過在當前利率風險有限且新興債指數殖利率仍高的環境下，故預期也將隨孳息而震盪向上。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">投資等級債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">美國經濟基本面變化不大，勞動市場持續降溫。川普提出降低農產品關稅等措施，搭配國際油價低迷，可望抑制通膨上行壓力。考量就業及通膨前景，預期Fed降息僅是節奏快慢問題，長線降息趨勢不變，將限制債市利率風險。目前投資等級債殖利率仍具吸引力，預期投資等級債基金總報酬仍有良好支撐。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">商品市場</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">俄烏戰爭停火可能性上升，若後續戰爭結束，俄羅斯的石油供給將增加，進一步加劇全球供過於求的壓力。不過，IEA最新月報顯示，2026年預估全球石油供給將超過需求384萬桶/日，較先前預估409萬桶/日略為縮小。反映出全球經濟活動回升，以及關稅與貿易政策不確定性有所緩解，仍可為能源價格提供支撐。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>投資新興市場應留意政治風險與經濟情勢變動之影響，波動性與風險程度可能較高。</strong>註：美國投資等級公司債係指彭博美國投資等級公司債指數、美國非投資等級公司債係指彭博美國非投資等級公司債指數、新興美元主權債係指彭博新興美元債指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。本資料僅供參考，不代表投資績效之保證。投資人申購基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不代表基金之績效，基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"隨著川普關稅政策的影響逐步淡化，加上美國經濟 K 型分化趨勢更趨明確，在 AI 資本支出與高端消費的強勁支撐下，仍將為市場提供動能；同時，聯準會預期維持謹慎降息步伐，整體而言，2026 年股市展望仍偏正向。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/view-102.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/01/02 16:08:52","startTime":"2026-01-02T16:08:52.7370000+08:00","metaTitle":"在K型分化中前行 — AI浪潮與降息循環下的2026年市場展望｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-01-02T16:17:12.7470000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/c146e83a-26a5-4aeb-aaca-445aa26532b4"}],"news01":[{"id":3052,"guid":"ff93bf7d-0584-41bc-b83f-f11937d40bc5","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"2026年初軟體股為何重挫？AI加速發展下的產業變局與投資機會","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2026年初，美國軟體股經歷了被市場稱為「軟體末日」（Software-mageddon）的劇烈震盪，Anthropic於年初陸續推出Claude相關模型與工具，升高市場對AI可能改寫既有軟體服務商業模式的疑慮，S&amp;P軟體與服務指數在短短兩個月內下跌約 21%、市值大幅蒸發；與此同時，美國科技巨頭亦因鉅額資本支出的投資報酬率前景不明而承壓，受此影響，S&amp;P 500指數整體表現相對受限。&nbsp;<br><br>然而，在軟體股哀鴻遍野之際，硬體、能源與公用事業卻逆勢走強（圖一）。這顯示AI熱潮並非消退，而是隨著產業發展進入新階段，相關類股表現已出現更明顯分化。&nbsp;<br><br>本文將先從AI發展現況切入，說明為何AI主線並未改變，再進一步探討AI加速落地下，哪些產業環節較可能受惠、哪些類型則需審慎看待。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖一：2026年以來（截至2026/2/27），美股大盤、美股七巨頭、硬體、軟體、公用事業、原物料、能源類股累積報酬率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260401-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。&nbsp;</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/2/27。&nbsp;<br>註：美股大盤採標普500指數、美股七巨頭採彭博美國七大科技巨頭指數（含Microsoft、Amazon、Nvidia、Alphabet、Tesla、Meta、Apple）、硬體類股採費城半導體指數、軟體類股採標普500軟體與服務指數、公用事業類股採標普500公用事業指數、原物料類股採標普500原物料指數、能源類股採標普500能源類指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI發展的現況與關鍵挑戰</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">從當前產業發展來看，AI熱潮並未消退，而是進入需求持續擴張、成本快速下降，且瓶頸逐步轉向基礎設施的新階段，主要可從以下三個面向觀察：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">算力投資規模持續擴大</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">儘管軟體股估值修正，但基礎設施投入未減。預估至2027財年，美國四大雲端服務供應商（CSP）的資本支出合計將突破 6,700億美元（圖二），這為硬體供應鏈提供了支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">單位成本崩跌，AI模型應用門檻降低</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">AI使用成本正以指數級速度下降。相較於2023年GPT-4的綜合使用成本*約為每百萬Token 37.5美元，目前的GPT-5 mini與Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite成本已降至每百萬Token 0.6美元左右，跌幅超過95%。這雖有利於AI普及，卻也侵蝕了缺乏護城河的單一功能軟體之定價能力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">從「算力荒」到「能源荒」</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">AI的瓶頸正由晶片供給轉向電力與電力基礎設施。國際能源署（International Energy Agency, IEA）預估全球資料中心用電量未來五年年複合成長率將達14%（圖三）。電力供給與變壓器等硬體建設週期長、供給剛性強，已成為制約AI擴張的關鍵節點。</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">*綜合成本是根據各AI模型官方公布之輸入（提問）與輸出（回答）Token定價，並以市場研究常用之假設（輸入佔75%、輸出佔25%），進行加權估算而成。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖二：美國四大CSP企業資本支出</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260401-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/11。註1：2026~2027年為Bloomberg預估。註2：年度係採用各企業之財年。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖三：全球AI資料中心用電量</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260401-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：國際能源署（International Energy Agency, IEA），2025/4。&nbsp;<br>註1：2025~2030年為IEA估計值。註2：太瓦時（Terawatt-hour, TWh）為衡量能量的單位，1太瓦時=10億度電。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI加速滲透，帶動產業重塑與獲利重分配</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">進一步從產業環節觀察，AI帶來的影響並不一致，不同商業模式與供應鏈位置，未來所面臨的機會與壓力將明顯分化（表一）。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">標準化流程型業務，較可能面臨獲利壓力</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">若企業的獲利模式主要建立在標準化、可重複的流程處理上，未來較可能面臨AI加速滲透所帶來的效率壓力。這類業務未必會被完全取代，但其營運模式預期將由大量人工執行，逐步轉向「AI自動化處理、人工決策覆核」的新架構。&nbsp;<br><br>例如客服、內容製作、基礎程式開發與財務對帳等流程型服務，未來都可能朝此方向調整；若企業無法及時完成轉型，獲利空間與評價均可能承受壓力。這也是今年以來軟體股表現疲弱的重要背景之一：市場擔心的不只是短期成長放緩，更是部分軟體與服務型業務原有的差異化與定價能力，可能在AI普及後受到侵蝕。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">掌握基礎建設與關鍵瓶頸者，較具受惠機會</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">與AI基礎建設擴張直接相關，且具技術門檻、供給限制或需求剛性的環節，受惠機會相對較高。例如，隨著AI日益深入企業流程，資安防護、身分驗證與資料合規等需求可望持續提升；在資料中心擴建與運轉帶動下，電力設備、基礎建設及銅等環節，需求能見度亦相對明確。&nbsp;<br>此外，在硬體供應鏈方面，半導體先進封裝、散熱、電源等領域，因仍具技術門檻與供應限制，中長期前景亦相對偏正向。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">表一：AI產業分化地圖</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260401-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/3/11。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI主線未變，但投資焦點已由追逐題材轉向挑選贏家</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">整體而言，AI 主線並未改變，但評價邏輯已發生轉變。過去市場對AI題材普遍給予高評價的階段已逐步告一段落，如今市場更在意：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">資本支出回收能力</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">科技巨頭的高額投入能否轉化為實際營收。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">關鍵資源掌控力</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">是否掌握電力、水冷散熱或專利封裝等硬性供給門檻。&nbsp;<br><br>考量AI產業分化與市場辨認贏家的過程中，股市表現仍可能反覆震盪，因此在資產配置上，建議以分散為原則，並適度聚焦於掌握關鍵技術、基礎設施與資源瓶頸的相關標的，以因應市場分化與波動延續。&nbsp;<br><strong>(以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">主要股債市展望及說明</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">已開發股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">美伊戰爭雖將推升能源價格，但衝突若能在短期內降溫，對經濟與物價長期結構性影響仍將有限。景氣與企業獲利增長持續，地緣政治事件或使市場短期波動加大，但不影響中期趨勢。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">新興股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">以東北亞為主的新興市場受惠AI ，景氣與企業獲利增長加速、評價仍相對低於已開發股市，多頭趨勢可望持續。然而，因短期漲幅較大，須留意可能出現漲多回檔壓力。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">信用債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">私募信貸不透明度、AI顛覆性及地緣政治事件紛擾等因素，使得信用利差微幅上升，但仍保持在歷史相對低位。考量到美國景氣仍溫和增長，預期整體信用利差大幅擴大的可能性不高，預期信用債指數在短線波動後仍將因孳息而緩步上漲。&nbsp;<br><br>其中，非投資等級債指數因存續期間較短、利率敏感度低，預期將有較佳的孳息效率，而新興市場債指數因存續期間較長，走勢往往較非投資等級債指數震盪，不過在當前利率風險有限且新興債指數殖利率仍高的環境下，故預期也將隨孳息而震盪向上。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">投資等級債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">關稅影響消退及勞動需求放緩有利通膨降溫，但美伊戰爭又為前景添增不確定性，Fed短期內或將陷入觀望，不過根據過往經驗，地緣政治事件往往只會帶來短期波動、不易扭轉整體經濟及金融市場趨勢，加上目前投資等級債指數殖利率約在4~5%，殖利率將為總報酬提供支撐。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">商品市場</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">儘管美國與以色列轟炸伊朗，帶動國際油價短期大幅上漲，但市場多認為，若伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽，亦可能衝擊其外匯收入，因此是否具備長期封鎖條件仍有待觀察。&nbsp;<br><br>從期貨市場來看，目前中長天期油價漲幅明顯低於短天期，顯示市場對此次衝突可能造成的長期能源供給衝擊仍持較審慎看法。若後續戰事未進一步擴大，原物料價格走勢仍可能以震盪整理為主。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>投資新興市場應留意政治風險與經濟情勢變動之影響，波動性與風險程度可能較高。</strong>註：美國投資等級公司債係指彭博美國投資等級公司債指數、美國非投資等級公司債係指彭博美國非投資等級公司債指數、新興美元主權債係指彭博新興美元債指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。本資料僅供參考，不代表投資績效之保證。投資人申購基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不代表基金之績效，基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"過去市場對AI題材普遍給予高評價的時期已逐漸結束，如今投資人更關注的是，科技巨頭的大規模投入能否轉化為實際營收，以及企業是否掌握關鍵資源與技術。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/02 09:30:42","startTime":"2026-04-02T09:30:34.2000000+08:00","metaTitle":"2026年初軟體股為何重挫？AI加速發展下的產業變局與投資機會｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-02T09:32:49.5130000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/ff93bf7d-0584-41bc-b83f-f11937d40bc5"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/29.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/29.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/29.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=29","url2":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&Fund=29","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1055,"updateTime":"2026-04-17T08:59:28.8030000+08:00","guid":"6df65637-dfd5-4f27-a105-b38064505c0d","fundID":"58","twNameFull":"復華中國新經濟A股基金-人民幣","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa China New Economy A Shares Equity Fund - RMB","ec002":"","twName":"中國新經濟A股人民幣","pnav":"11.47","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"-0.12","changeRange":"-1.04%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<p>主要投資與大陸A股相關及受惠大陸地區「新經濟」之相關標的，包括經濟結構轉型、社會結構變遷、政府政策方向等主題。 篩選成長趨勢向上、獲利能力佳或可望轉佳之產業，找出獲利加速成長且股價相對便宜之個股，參與新經濟發展及成長潛力較大的投資機會。</p>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2015/05/26","ec006":"人民幣","ec010":"彰化商業銀行","ec009":"RR5","ec012":"2.00%","ec013":"0.260%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資股票型","ec020_sort":5084,"ec022":"","ec024":"大中華地區","ec026":"股票型","ec027":"","ec028":"","ec030":"T+5日","ec036":"彰化商業銀行總部分行","ec037":"復華中國新經濟A股基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":1,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華中國新經濟A股基金-人民幣 ｜ 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text-9-light\">自2024年12月聯準會降息以來，美國政策利率一直維持在4.25%~4.50%區間，美國十年期公債殖利率則大致在4.0%~4.5%之間波動（圖一）。近期，隨著川普關稅政策逐漸明朗，以及美國經濟成長速度出現放緩，市場開始猜測聯準會是否會改變貨幣政策的方向。&nbsp;<br><br>本文將從當前經濟背景出發，分析聯準會的政策方向及其對金融市場的潛在影響，以在變動的環境中更好地評估投資風險與機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖一：聯準會政策利率及美國十年期公債殖利率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202509/20250901-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/7/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">消費動能放緩，油價與房租受控，關稅難引發長期通膨</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">過去兩年，美國通膨壓力顯著緩解，通膨率自2022年高點約9%逐步回落，至2024年初已跌破3%，儘管2025年第二季受關稅影響略有反彈，但目前仍維持在2%至3%的溫和區間，顯示高利率環境已有效將通膨壓制在可控範圍內。&nbsp;<br><br>2025年以來，川普政府陸續對各國商品提高進口關稅，美國實際進口關稅稅率自年初不足3%升至8月初的約17%。然而，至今物價仍未顯著上揚，顯示關稅成本的增加主要由廠商自行吸收，背後原因包括消費需求疲弱、政策不確定性、維持市占率及政府施壓等。&nbsp;<br><br>事實上，美國消費動能已自高峰回落。受高利率、低儲蓄率、信用卡利息負擔加重及就業市場降溫等影響，民眾消費支出疲弱，2025年上半年美國實質消費支出增速放緩至1.0%，遠低於2024年平均的3.1%（圖二）。&nbsp;<br><br>展望後市，雖然廠商終究會希望將關稅成本轉嫁給消費者，但在美國消費動能已趨緩的環境下，其轉嫁能力或將有限，難以為物價帶來持久的上行壓力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖二：美國實質消費支出季增率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202509/20250901-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/6/30。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">另一方面，有鑑於油價與通膨高度相關（圖三），川普政府在推動高關稅政策的同時，亦持續關注能源市場動態。川普多次表態將透過外交與產油國談判等方式壓抑油價漲勢，並在公開場合及社群媒體上要求OPEC+增產，此政策立場有助於降低能源價格及通膨的上行風險。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>此外，美國住宅租金增速仍持續下行、年增率降至約3%，美國居住相關成本約占核心CPI比例約四成，因此可望進一步帶動核心通膨率回落（圖四）。在消費動能減弱、能源與住房成本受控的情況下，關稅對通膨的持久影響有限，美國整體物價風險可望維持可控，為聯準會在未來貨幣政策上保留操作空間。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖三：美國CPI通膨年增率與西德州原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202509/20250901-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/7/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖四：美國核心CPI通膨年增率與租金年增率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202509/20250901-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/7/31。註：核心CPI，為CPI扣除對物價較為敏感的能源及食物。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">就業市場需求降溫，找工作的難度正在上升</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在通膨風險大致受控下，聯準會可將政策重心更多聚焦於維持就業市場穩健。&nbsp;<br><br>近期數據顯示，美國勞動需求持續放緩，職缺與失業人口比率降至約1.0倍，低於2022年高峰平均的約1.9倍。職缺回落已遍及多數行業，並伴隨新增就業大幅下滑。2025年7月新增非農就業僅7.3萬人，前兩個月數據亦合計下修25.8萬人，使過去三個月平均新增就業驟降至3.5萬人，為2020年6月以來最低。儘管失業率僅微升至4.2%，但職缺與就業增速同步放緩，顯示火熱的勞動市場早已成為過去式，人們找工作的難度正在上升（表一）。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">表一：美國職缺/失業人數比率、新增非農就業人數、失業率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202509/20250901-5.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/7/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">聯準會內部降息聲浪增，降息時點或已接近</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在通膨壓力受控、就業市場降溫的背景下，聯準會內部主張降息的聲音正逐漸升高。2025年7月FOMC會議決定將聯邦基金利率維持在4.25%~4.50%不變，為今年連續第五場會議按兵不動。&nbsp;<br><br>會後聲明強調將「謹慎評估即將到來的數據」，顯示當前政策仍以數據為導向，並為可能的政策轉向保留空間。值得注意的是，11名投票委員中有2人罕見地投下反對票，主張應立即降息，以防止勞動市場惡化。&nbsp;<br><br>會後不久，7月疲弱的非農就業數據公布，引發多位Fed官員態度轉趨溫和，並表示若勞動市場持續走弱，可能需要更快採取行動，並支持今年內進行多次降息。&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，通膨風險大致可控、勞動市場放緩，將使聯準會逐步轉向「降息準備」模式，市場普遍預期降息時點已日益接近。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">後續美國政策利率的下降，將有助於經濟軟著陸並為金融市場帶來支撐</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">展望後市，聯準會重啟降息的訊號，疊加市場對利率下降後企業融資成本減輕及經濟軟著陸的預期，將為股市帶來支撐，惟仍須關注經濟數據發展及降息節奏是否符合市場期待，建議維持多元分散配置，確保在參與市場潛在漲幅的同時，降低過度集中帶來的風險。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><strong>(以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">主要股債市展望及說明</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">已開發股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">美國需求增長放緩，勞動市場新增就業人數亦顯著減少，但經濟尚無進入衰退跡象，聯準會仍有降息支撐經濟空間。&nbsp;<br><br>以科技股為主的企業獲利增長亦持續超越預期，中期多頭趨勢尚未改變。不過近期股市主要指數屢創新高後，短期可能進入震盪整理階段。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">新興股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">新興股市企業獲利預估穩定增長，評價亦仍維持相對低檔，加上美元弱勢趨勢持續，有助新興股市趨勢向上。不過，近期股市持續逼近過往高點，需留意短期可能漲多回檔風險，以及關注川普關稅政策後續對新興市場造成的潛在影響。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">信用債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">隨著風險情緒的好轉，信用債利差已回到歷史相對低檔，惟美國經濟或將溫和放緩，中期來看信用利差上檔空間大於下檔空間，不過由於當前信用債殖利率仍位在合理到偏高水準，預期將有助於支撐其總報酬表現。&nbsp;<br><br>其中，非投資等級債指數因存續期間較短、利率敏感度低，預期將有較佳的孳息效率，而新興市場債指數因存續期間較長，走勢往往較非投資等級債指數震盪，不過在當前利率風險有限且新興債指數殖利率仍高的環境下，故預期也將隨孳息而震盪向上。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">投資等級債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">關稅消息對金融市場的影響已逐漸降低，市場焦點轉向經濟及物價發展。美國終端需求及勞動市場放緩，關稅對物價影響不易持久，聯準會內部呼籲降息的聲音將逐漸增加，在此環境下債市利率風險有限，加上當前投資等級債殖利率高達4~5%，預期投資等級債基金總報酬表現將有所支撐。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">商品市場</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">CRB商品指數近期維持震盪整理，反映市場對供需與宏觀環境的拉鋸。雖然部分能源及金屬受供應因素支撐，但全球經濟動能或將轉弱，需求前景仍不確定。&nbsp;<br><br>儘管OPEC最新月報上調2025年全球石油需求增幅至7%，並下調供給13%，顯示供需趨緊；但OPEC+近期加速重啟閒置產能，可能在未來帶來供應過剩的壓力。同時，中東地緣風險緩解，風險溢酬下降，使商品價格維持區間震盪。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>投資新興市場應留意政治風險與經濟情勢變動之影響，波動性與風險程度可能較高。</strong>註：美國投資等級公司債係指彭博美國投資等級公司債指數、美國非投資等級公司債係指彭博美國非投資等級公司債指數、新興美元主權債係指彭博新興美元債指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。本資料僅供參考，不代表投資績效之保證。投資人申購基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不代表基金之績效，基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"近期，隨著川普關稅政策逐漸明朗，以及目前通膨風險大致可控、勞動市場放緩的背景下，聯準會內部主導降息的聲音正逐漸升高，市場普遍預期降息時點已日益接近，將為股市帶來支撐。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202509/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2025/09/02 09:27:41","startTime":"2025-09-02T09:27:41.4970000+08:00","metaTitle":"降息倒數計時：美國經濟與市場的下一步｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-09-02T09:35:55.5600000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/8d973d07-6aff-4761-befc-34af1f008e85"},{"id":1434,"guid":"e5cac2d8-c82d-4ead-b722-ca0c9d44ff10","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"中國股市靜待經濟趨穩，市場觀察四大指標","contents":"<p class=\"indent-content indent-content-4 text-9-light\">■ &nbsp;俄烏戰爭、中美歐交惡、疫情封城、人民幣貶值、地產債違約等因素使上證指數最多下跌21.3%，4月底自谷底反彈19.6%後，因疫情再起而回檔整理。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"indent-content indent-content-4 text-9-light\">■ &nbsp;中國兩會設定2022年經濟年成長+5.5%目標，需將加大政府支出、減稅降費、刺激信貸與投資、拯救房地產市場以達成目標。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"indent-content indent-content-4 text-9-light\">■ &nbsp;市場觀察四大指標包括：疫情防控是否放寬、信貸寬鬆是否導向民間借貸復甦、房地產新屋銷售回穩、基建開工進度。</p><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"市場觀察四大指標\n觀察1：疫情防控是否放寬\n觀察2：信貸寬鬆是否導向民間借貸復甦\n觀察3：房地產新屋銷售回穩\n觀察4：基建開工進度","url":"","urlType":"","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202210/理財觀點-7.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"大中華","postTime":"2022/08/08 00:00:00","startTime":"2022-10-05T17:14:54.5270000+08:00","status":0,"metaTitle":"中國股市靜待經濟趨穩，市場觀察四大指標","metaDescription":"市場觀察四大指標\n觀察1：疫情防控是否放寬\n觀察2：信貸寬鬆是否導向民間借貸復甦\n觀察3：房地產新屋銷售回穩\n觀察4：基建開工進度","metaKeyword":"","value01":0,"value02":"","value03":"","value04":"","value05":"","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2022-10-19T10:32:06.1270000+08:00","files":"/UploadFile/Article.file/202210/052c3a2a-9d21-4271-a039-20f054ad547420220808 大中華.pdf","canEdit":false,"isFund":0,"isMFund":0,"isMedia":0,"isArticle":0,"isDividend":0,"dividendType":"","dividendRoute":"","categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/e5cac2d8-c82d-4ead-b722-ca0c9d44ff10"}],"news01":[{"id":2840,"guid":"8d973d07-6aff-4761-befc-34af1f008e85","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"降息倒數計時：美國經濟與市場的下一步","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">自2024年12月聯準會降息以來，美國政策利率一直維持在4.25%~4.50%區間，美國十年期公債殖利率則大致在4.0%~4.5%之間波動（圖一）。近期，隨著川普關稅政策逐漸明朗，以及美國經濟成長速度出現放緩，市場開始猜測聯準會是否會改變貨幣政策的方向。&nbsp;<br><br>本文將從當前經濟背景出發，分析聯準會的政策方向及其對金融市場的潛在影響，以在變動的環境中更好地評估投資風險與機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖一：聯準會政策利率及美國十年期公債殖利率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202509/20250901-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/7/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">消費動能放緩，油價與房租受控，關稅難引發長期通膨</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">過去兩年，美國通膨壓力顯著緩解，通膨率自2022年高點約9%逐步回落，至2024年初已跌破3%，儘管2025年第二季受關稅影響略有反彈，但目前仍維持在2%至3%的溫和區間，顯示高利率環境已有效將通膨壓制在可控範圍內。&nbsp;<br><br>2025年以來，川普政府陸續對各國商品提高進口關稅，美國實際進口關稅稅率自年初不足3%升至8月初的約17%。然而，至今物價仍未顯著上揚，顯示關稅成本的增加主要由廠商自行吸收，背後原因包括消費需求疲弱、政策不確定性、維持市占率及政府施壓等。&nbsp;<br><br>事實上，美國消費動能已自高峰回落。受高利率、低儲蓄率、信用卡利息負擔加重及就業市場降溫等影響，民眾消費支出疲弱，2025年上半年美國實質消費支出增速放緩至1.0%，遠低於2024年平均的3.1%（圖二）。&nbsp;<br><br>展望後市，雖然廠商終究會希望將關稅成本轉嫁給消費者，但在美國消費動能已趨緩的環境下，其轉嫁能力或將有限，難以為物價帶來持久的上行壓力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖二：美國實質消費支出季增率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202509/20250901-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/6/30。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">另一方面，有鑑於油價與通膨高度相關（圖三），川普政府在推動高關稅政策的同時，亦持續關注能源市場動態。川普多次表態將透過外交與產油國談判等方式壓抑油價漲勢，並在公開場合及社群媒體上要求OPEC+增產，此政策立場有助於降低能源價格及通膨的上行風險。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>此外，美國住宅租金增速仍持續下行、年增率降至約3%，美國居住相關成本約占核心CPI比例約四成，因此可望進一步帶動核心通膨率回落（圖四）。在消費動能減弱、能源與住房成本受控的情況下，關稅對通膨的持久影響有限，美國整體物價風險可望維持可控，為聯準會在未來貨幣政策上保留操作空間。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖三：美國CPI通膨年增率與西德州原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202509/20250901-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/7/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖四：美國核心CPI通膨年增率與租金年增率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202509/20250901-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/7/31。註：核心CPI，為CPI扣除對物價較為敏感的能源及食物。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">就業市場需求降溫，找工作的難度正在上升</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在通膨風險大致受控下，聯準會可將政策重心更多聚焦於維持就業市場穩健。&nbsp;<br><br>近期數據顯示，美國勞動需求持續放緩，職缺與失業人口比率降至約1.0倍，低於2022年高峰平均的約1.9倍。職缺回落已遍及多數行業，並伴隨新增就業大幅下滑。2025年7月新增非農就業僅7.3萬人，前兩個月數據亦合計下修25.8萬人，使過去三個月平均新增就業驟降至3.5萬人，為2020年6月以來最低。儘管失業率僅微升至4.2%，但職缺與就業增速同步放緩，顯示火熱的勞動市場早已成為過去式，人們找工作的難度正在上升（表一）。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">表一：美國職缺/失業人數比率、新增非農就業人數、失業率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202509/20250901-5.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/7/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">聯準會內部降息聲浪增，降息時點或已接近</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在通膨壓力受控、就業市場降溫的背景下，聯準會內部主張降息的聲音正逐漸升高。2025年7月FOMC會議決定將聯邦基金利率維持在4.25%~4.50%不變，為今年連續第五場會議按兵不動。&nbsp;<br><br>會後聲明強調將「謹慎評估即將到來的數據」，顯示當前政策仍以數據為導向，並為可能的政策轉向保留空間。值得注意的是，11名投票委員中有2人罕見地投下反對票，主張應立即降息，以防止勞動市場惡化。&nbsp;<br><br>會後不久，7月疲弱的非農就業數據公布，引發多位Fed官員態度轉趨溫和，並表示若勞動市場持續走弱，可能需要更快採取行動，並支持今年內進行多次降息。&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，通膨風險大致可控、勞動市場放緩，將使聯準會逐步轉向「降息準備」模式，市場普遍預期降息時點已日益接近。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">後續美國政策利率的下降，將有助於經濟軟著陸並為金融市場帶來支撐</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">展望後市，聯準會重啟降息的訊號，疊加市場對利率下降後企業融資成本減輕及經濟軟著陸的預期，將為股市帶來支撐，惟仍須關注經濟數據發展及降息節奏是否符合市場期待，建議維持多元分散配置，確保在參與市場潛在漲幅的同時，降低過度集中帶來的風險。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><strong>(以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">主要股債市展望及說明</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">已開發股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">美國需求增長放緩，勞動市場新增就業人數亦顯著減少，但經濟尚無進入衰退跡象，聯準會仍有降息支撐經濟空間。&nbsp;<br><br>以科技股為主的企業獲利增長亦持續超越預期，中期多頭趨勢尚未改變。不過近期股市主要指數屢創新高後，短期可能進入震盪整理階段。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">新興股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">新興股市企業獲利預估穩定增長，評價亦仍維持相對低檔，加上美元弱勢趨勢持續，有助新興股市趨勢向上。不過，近期股市持續逼近過往高點，需留意短期可能漲多回檔風險，以及關注川普關稅政策後續對新興市場造成的潛在影響。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">信用債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">隨著風險情緒的好轉，信用債利差已回到歷史相對低檔，惟美國經濟或將溫和放緩，中期來看信用利差上檔空間大於下檔空間，不過由於當前信用債殖利率仍位在合理到偏高水準，預期將有助於支撐其總報酬表現。&nbsp;<br><br>其中，非投資等級債指數因存續期間較短、利率敏感度低，預期將有較佳的孳息效率，而新興市場債指數因存續期間較長，走勢往往較非投資等級債指數震盪，不過在當前利率風險有限且新興債指數殖利率仍高的環境下，故預期也將隨孳息而震盪向上。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">投資等級債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">關稅消息對金融市場的影響已逐漸降低，市場焦點轉向經濟及物價發展。美國終端需求及勞動市場放緩，關稅對物價影響不易持久，聯準會內部呼籲降息的聲音將逐漸增加，在此環境下債市利率風險有限，加上當前投資等級債殖利率高達4~5%，預期投資等級債基金總報酬表現將有所支撐。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">商品市場</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">CRB商品指數近期維持震盪整理，反映市場對供需與宏觀環境的拉鋸。雖然部分能源及金屬受供應因素支撐，但全球經濟動能或將轉弱，需求前景仍不確定。&nbsp;<br><br>儘管OPEC最新月報上調2025年全球石油需求增幅至7%，並下調供給13%，顯示供需趨緊；但OPEC+近期加速重啟閒置產能，可能在未來帶來供應過剩的壓力。同時，中東地緣風險緩解，風險溢酬下降，使商品價格維持區間震盪。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>投資新興市場應留意政治風險與經濟情勢變動之影響，波動性與風險程度可能較高。</strong>註：美國投資等級公司債係指彭博美國投資等級公司債指數、美國非投資等級公司債係指彭博美國非投資等級公司債指數、新興美元主權債係指彭博新興美元債指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。本資料僅供參考，不代表投資績效之保證。投資人申購基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不代表基金之績效，基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"近期，隨著川普關稅政策逐漸明朗，以及目前通膨風險大致可控、勞動市場放緩的背景下，聯準會內部主導降息的聲音正逐漸升高，市場普遍預期降息時點已日益接近，將為股市帶來支撐。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202509/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2025/09/02 09:27:41","startTime":"2025-09-02T09:27:41.4970000+08:00","metaTitle":"降息倒數計時：美國經濟與市場的下一步｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-09-02T09:35:55.5600000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/8d973d07-6aff-4761-befc-34af1f008e85"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/58.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/58.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/58.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"","url2":"","file01":"/docupload/download/help/K1.pdf"},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1056,"updateTime":"2026-04-17T08:59:50.4030000+08:00","guid":"8741ff30-7c51-4e5e-980c-41e913ae2452","fundID":"57","twNameFull":"復華中國新經濟A股基金-新臺幣","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa China New Economy A Shares Equity Fund - TWD","ec002":"","twName":"中國新經濟A股新臺幣","pnav":"10.49","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"-0.13","changeRange":"-1.22%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">主要投資與大陸A股相關及受惠大陸地區「新經濟」之相關標的，包括經濟結構轉型、社會結構變遷、政府政策方向等主題。</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">篩選成長趨勢向上、獲利能力佳或可望轉佳之產業，找出獲利加速成長且股價相對便宜之個股，參與新經濟發展及成長潛力較大的投資機會。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2015/05/26","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"彰化商業銀行","ec009":"RR5","ec012":"2.00%","ec013":"0.260%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資股票型","ec020_sort":5084,"ec022":"","ec024":"大中華地區","ec026":"股票型","ec027":"","ec028":"","ec030":"T+5日","ec036":"彰化商業銀行總部分行","ec037":"復華中國新經濟A股基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":1,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":1,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華中國新經濟A股基金-新臺幣 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"2678476219.000000","roi3m":"-0.89%","roi6m":"2.76%","roi1y":"22.83%","roi2y":"33.08%","roi3y":"17.65%","roiLaunch":"-10.61%","roiY2D":"-0.89%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"1","value02":"1","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"楊書婷","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[{"name":"廖偉吉","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"news":[{"id":3067,"guid":"6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 08:54:53","startTime":"2026-04-23T08:54:49.4100000+08:00","metaTitle":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-23T08:58:43.1630000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63"},{"id":2963,"guid":"c146e83a-26a5-4aeb-aaca-445aa26532b4","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"在K型分化中前行 — AI浪潮與降息循環下的2026年市場展望","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">回顧2025年，全球金融市場波動顯著。上半年因美國川普政府推動大規模加徵對等關稅，4月份一度引發全球風險情緒快速降溫，股市短線明顯回檔；所幸其後美國陸續與多國達成貿易共識，加上AI投資持續推進，科技供應鏈強勢反彈，並帶動全球股市回升。&nbsp;<br><br>然而，進入11月後，市場逐步反映評價偏高與AI變現進程不確定性等疑慮，獲利了結賣壓升溫，科技股走弱帶動主要股市指數自高檔回落。從2025年初至11月底為止，標普500指數上漲16%、台灣加權指數上漲20%、美國十年期公債殖利率下滑56個基點至4.01%，全球主要債市亦上漲8~11%不等（圖一）。&nbsp;<br><br>從經濟與金融市場結構觀察，美國勞動市場雖呈現溫和降溫，但AI的蓬勃發展不僅持續提振股市表現，也更集中地推動高資產族群財富累積，進而支撐消費與經濟韌性，使「K型分化」格局愈發鮮明。邁向2026年，在高度分化且變數交織的宏觀環境下，美國聯準會將如何校準貨幣政策路徑？AI相關股票能否持續作為支撐市場的重要動能？&nbsp;<br><br>本文將聚焦上述核心議題，提供投資人市場脈絡與研判框架，以因應新一年的挑戰與機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖一：2025年以來，全球主要股債市漲跌幅</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/20260102-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/1/1~2025/11/28。註：全球股市採MSCI AC世界指數（美元計價）、美股採標普500指數（美元計價）、歐股採道瓊歐洲600指數（歐元計價）、陸股採中國上證指數（人民幣計價）、台股採台灣加權指數（台幣計價）、新興股市採MSCI新興市場指數（美元計價）、投資等級債採彭博美國投資等級公司美元債指數、非投資等級債採彭博美國非投資等級美元債指數、新興市場債採彭博新興市場美元主權債指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">疲弱的勞動需求 vs. AI驅動的強勁資本支出，美國K型經濟分化加劇</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2025年以來，美國經濟的K型分化趨勢更為明確，高收入族群的財富與收入持續攀升，相較之下，低收入家庭在收入成長停滯與物價壓力未歇的雙重擠壓下，生活負擔沉重。推動此一分化的重要因素之一，正是AI浪潮所帶來的結構性改變。&nbsp;<br><br>AI投資不僅提升企業生產力，也推升金融資產價格。由於美國金融資產的持有高度集中於中高收入族群，股市上漲有效支撐其消費與投資信心，成為支撐整體經濟的重要力量。然而，企業面對景氣不確定性時，普遍採取較為保守的人力策略，包括放緩招募、凍結新增職缺及遇缺不補等；同時AI技術也開始在部分初階與重複性職位中展現替代效果，從而使勞動需求降溫。&nbsp;<br><br>值得留意的是，目前美國企業整體資本支出明顯增加，但招聘活動卻在降溫，顯示企業更傾向以技術與設備投資取代人力擴張（圖二）。此一分化亦進一步反映在消費行為上，中低收入族群因實質所得成長有限，逐步縮減非必要支出，而高收入族群受惠於資產價格上漲，高端零售、奢侈消費與旅遊需求仍具韌性。&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，美國經濟並非全面走弱，而是在AI資本支出與高端消費支撐下，呈現「部分領域強、部分領域弱」的高度分化K型成長格局。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖二：美國企業資本支出與非農企業雇用率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/20260102-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：FRED。非農雇用率採月資料，截至2025/10；美國整體企業資本支出採季資料，截至2025年第二季。註：美國JOLTS非農雇用率指的是每個月美國非農業部門新增或重新聘用員工的人數占整體就業人數的比率，反映美國勞動力需求情況。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動下行風險增，通膨和緩，2026年聯準會謹慎降息趨勢不變</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在K型經濟背景下，美國總體經濟的風險焦點正逐步由「通膨是否失控」轉向「勞動市場轉弱」。近期數據顯示，雖然失業率並未顯著攀升，但新增就業人數與職位空缺均呈現放緩趨勢，顯示勞動需求持續降溫，就業市場的下行風險正逐步升高。&nbsp;<br><br>通膨方面，目前美國PCE通膨率約為2.7%，仍略高於聯準會2%的長期目標，但推升通膨的壓力已逐漸緩解。隨著勞動市場降溫，薪資增速趨於穩定；同時，油價維持相對低檔，有助於壓抑能源與整體成本壓力；此外，若川普政府後續在民意壓力下調降部分關稅，相關商品物價壓力亦可望進一步減輕。綜合上述發展，預期通膨再度大幅上行的風險相對有限（圖三）。&nbsp;<br><br>在此環境下，2026年聯準會仍具備進一步降息的政策空間，以避免經濟過度降溫。然而，過去錯判通膨為暫時性的經驗，使聯準會在政策決策上更趨謹慎，委員間意見亦可能出現分歧，決策將高度仰賴後續經濟數據表現。整體而言，預期2026年聯準會將維持謹慎的降息步調，仍有助於美國公債殖利率維持趨勢性下行（圖四），並支撐金融市場風險偏好。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖三：美國通膨數據實際及預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/20260102-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/11/28，註：個人消費支出物價指數(PCE)為聯準會關注的通膨指標；核心PCE為排除價格波動度較大的能源與食品項目。PCE實際資料至2025年9月，虛線為Bloomberg於2025/11/28之預估值。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖四：美國十年期公債殖利率及聯準會政策利率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/20260102-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/12/11。2026年~2028年政策利率為2025年12月FOMC會議所公布之政策利率點陣圖。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">科技巨頭2025年第三季業績和未來指引普遍優於預期，AI投資熱潮尚未見頂</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">AI是支撐2025年市場的重要趨勢。雖然科技股於11月因評價偏高而出現技術性修正，但整體AI生態基本面仍然強勁，全球半導體銷售金額持續創下歷史新高（圖五），顯示上升趨勢尚未出現反轉訊號。&nbsp;<br><br>2025年第三季科技巨頭的業績與財測普遍優於市場預期，雲端服務、數位廣告及硬體終端等領域皆有亮眼表現；同時企業對AI的資本支出仍持續加碼，而從自由現金流觀察，主要科技龍頭仍維持充沛的現金部位（圖六），財務體質依舊穩健。&nbsp;<br><br>更重要的是，近期AI應用也正從科技業擴散至醫療、金融、製造、流程自動化等多個領域，顯示全球成長動能有機會由過去「AI一枝獨秀」逐步轉向「多點開花」，投資機會可望更為多元。&nbsp;<br><br>不過，仍須留意在高基期環境下，市場對財報與財測的容錯度相對降低，未來若科技巨頭無法滿足市場的高度期待，股價波動可能放大。總結而言，2026年AI與科技股投資前景仍具吸引力，但選股難度與波動風險同步上升，風險管理與資產分散配置將更為重要。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖五：全球半導體銷售金額與年增率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/20260102-5.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2020/10/31~2025/10/31，月資料。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖六：美國科技七巨頭自由現金流</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/20260102-6.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。 </strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2015/3/31~2025/9/30，季資料。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">全球經濟仍穩健，企業獲利預估持續成長</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">展望2026年，全球主要經濟體可望延續溫和成長的態勢。美國方面，在降息循環持續推進與AI發展前景帶動下，經濟仍展現一定韌性，2026年GDP增速有望達2.1%；歐元區方面，製造業PMI已自2025年的深度萎縮中逐步回升，後續在德國推動財政擴張，以及內需仍具支撐力等因素挹注下，2026年經濟預期可維持溫和擴張；台灣則持續受惠於AI相關需求強勁，半導體與關鍵零組件出口動能維持高檔，仍將是支撐整體經濟成長的主要驅動力。儘管2026年成長率可能較前期回落，仍可望維持約2.1%的成長（圖七）。&nbsp;<br><br>在全球景氣維持韌性、關稅政策不確定性相對降溫，以及降息帶動融資成本逐步下滑的背景下，企業獲利動能可望獲得支撐。根據路透社預估，2026年全球主要市場企業獲利成長幅度可望介於9.1%～22.5%（圖七），為後續市場表現奠定良好的基礎。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖七：各國經濟成長年增率及主要指數之企業獲利年增率預估</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/20260102-7.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg、IBES Thomson Reuters，2025/11/28。註：全球股市採MSCI AC世界指數、美股採標普500指數、歐股採道瓊歐洲600指數、陸股採中國上證指數、台股採台灣加權指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">2026年展望仍偏正向，惟高基期下宜採均衡分散的資產配置</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">聯準會處在謹慎降息階段，加上AI帶動的跨產業投資需求持續發酵，可望為市場提供中期動能。目前來看，2026年多頭趨勢尚未出現明確反轉訊號，惟在風險性資產基期較高的背景下，政策變化、資金動向與市場情緒等因素，都可能為金融市場帶來較大波動。因此，建議投資人採取較為均衡且分散的資產配置策略，以提升投資組合韌性，因應快速變化的市場環境。&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">主要股債市展望及說明</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">已開發股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">美國勞動市場景氣偏弱，但整體景氣並無衰退風險，通膨預期持續向下，聯準會政策將維持降息趨勢不變。AI投資與應用加速發展、2026年企業獲利增長持續加速，中期股市多頭趨勢並未改變。近期籌碼面與技術面逐漸由過熱水準略為降溫，不過以美國為主的已開發股市評價仍略為偏高，短期內仍可能出現震盪風險。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">新興股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">新興市場股市企業獲利預估穩健增長，評價仍維持合理水準，加上資金仍未顯著流入，多頭趨勢可望持續。然而，仍須留意股市短期內可能出現的漲多回檔風險，並密切關注川普關稅政策的後續發展對新興市場的潛在影響。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">信用債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">信用利差已處歷史低位，信用債超額報酬空間有限，但美國整體景氣仍維持溫和增長，短期利差大幅擴大機率低，加上信用債殖利率大多仍位在合理水準，且Fed處在降息周期，整體環境仍有利於信用債基金因孳息有緩步走高。&nbsp;<br><br>其中，非投資等級債指數因存續期間較短、利率敏感度低，預期將有較佳的孳息效率，而新興市場債指數因存續期間較長，走勢往往較非投資等級債指數震盪，不過在當前利率風險有限且新興債指數殖利率仍高的環境下，故預期也將隨孳息而震盪向上。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">投資等級債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">美國經濟基本面變化不大，勞動市場持續降溫。川普提出降低農產品關稅等措施，搭配國際油價低迷，可望抑制通膨上行壓力。考量就業及通膨前景，預期Fed降息僅是節奏快慢問題，長線降息趨勢不變，將限制債市利率風險。目前投資等級債殖利率仍具吸引力，預期投資等級債基金總報酬仍有良好支撐。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">商品市場</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">俄烏戰爭停火可能性上升，若後續戰爭結束，俄羅斯的石油供給將增加，進一步加劇全球供過於求的壓力。不過，IEA最新月報顯示，2026年預估全球石油供給將超過需求384萬桶/日，較先前預估409萬桶/日略為縮小。反映出全球經濟活動回升，以及關稅與貿易政策不確定性有所緩解，仍可為能源價格提供支撐。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>投資新興市場應留意政治風險與經濟情勢變動之影響，波動性與風險程度可能較高。</strong>註：美國投資等級公司債係指彭博美國投資等級公司債指數、美國非投資等級公司債係指彭博美國非投資等級公司債指數、新興美元主權債係指彭博新興美元債指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。本資料僅供參考，不代表投資績效之保證。投資人申購基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不代表基金之績效，基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"隨著川普關稅政策的影響逐步淡化，加上美國經濟 K 型分化趨勢更趨明確，在 AI 資本支出與高端消費的強勁支撐下，仍將為市場提供動能；同時，聯準會預期維持謹慎降息步伐，整體而言，2026 年股市展望仍偏正向。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/view-102.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/01/02 16:08:52","startTime":"2026-01-02T16:08:52.7370000+08:00","metaTitle":"在K型分化中前行 — AI浪潮與降息循環下的2026年市場展望｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-01-02T16:17:12.7470000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/c146e83a-26a5-4aeb-aaca-445aa26532b4"}],"news01":[{"id":3067,"guid":"6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 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style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li>投資全球市場主流及具高度成長潛力的新趨勢，尋找前瞻性產業，讓投資組合價值與大趨勢一起成長。</li><li>挖掘營運模式具競爭力的優質標的，參與企業營運成果。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2008/04/30","ec006":"美元","ec010":"永豐商業銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"2.00%","ec013":"0.260%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資股票型","ec020_sort":5084,"ec022":"","ec024":"全球","ec026":"股票型","ec027":"","ec028":"","ec030":"T+4日","ec036":"永豐商業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華全球大趨勢基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華全球大趨勢基金-美元 ｜ 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Hwa Global Thematic Fund-TWD","ec002":"","twName":"全球大趨勢新臺幣","pnav":"68.20","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"-0.90","changeRange":"-1.30%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">投資全球市場主流及具高度成長潛力的新趨勢，尋找前瞻性產業，讓投資組合價值與大趨勢一起成長。</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">挖掘營運模式具競爭力的優質標的，參與企業營運成果。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2008/04/30","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"永豐商業銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"2.00%","ec013":"0.260%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資股票型","ec020_sort":5084,"ec022":"","ec024":"全球","ec026":"股票型","ec027":"","ec028":"","ec030":"T+4日","ec036":"永豐商業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華全球大趨勢基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec040":"0","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":1,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華全球大趨勢基金-新臺幣 ｜ 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unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 08:54:53","startTime":"2026-04-23T08:54:49.4100000+08:00","metaTitle":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-23T08:58:43.1630000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63"},{"id":3053,"guid":"af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美、伊表態結束戰爭意願，FED升息預期暫消退，股市觸底反彈</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市在美、伊戰爭預期可能將結束，伊朗總統亦表示願意結束戰爭，雖然川普演說表示將繼續攻擊伊朗，直至與伊朗達成協議、油價繼續彈升，但伊朗開始放寬通行荷莫茲海峽條件，使已因美伊戰爭修正近一個月的股市風險情緒好轉，美股波段下跌10%左右後出現反彈。<br><br>台股在週一及週二強勢股補跌後，搭配美、伊戰爭可望近尾聲預期，以及週二台股融資餘額劇減百億台幣以上，週三台股亦現大幅反彈。<br><br>而美國聯準會(FED)主席Powell暗示，短期不會因油價大漲改變貨幣政策立場，使升息預期減弱，美國公債殖利率回落，亦降低了抑制股市的力量。<br><br>總計<strong>一週（2026/3/30-4/3）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲1.7%、3.0%、4.1%、5.0%，台股下跌1.6%以32572點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑9個bps至4.35%，美元指數持平於100.18，<u>油價(WTI)再漲11.9%至每桶111.54美元</u>，黃金價格反彈3.4%至每盎司4679.70美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">股市風險情緒好轉觸底反彈，戰爭延續時間及油價走勢，仍為關注焦點</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美伊戰爭造成股市下跌，主要即來自於伊朗封鎖荷莫茲海峽造成油價大漲，引發通膨及各國央行可能升息擔憂。在美、伊皆有結束戰爭的意願，以及荷莫茲海峽船隻通行數開始上升下，股市風險情緒獲得改善。<br><br>不過，短期<u>油價仍因為戰火未停歇持續走高</u>，美伊戰爭是否能如川普所言於二至三週內結束，以及荷莫茲海峽的封鎖情況，攸關油價及未來通膨發展及後續對經濟的影響。<br><br>而上週FED主席<u>Powell亦表示不會因短期油價大漲調整貨幣政策</u>，原本投資人對FED升息預期機率上升的狀況改變，FED繼續維持利率政策不變的預期回升（年底前利率維持不變的機率為69.5%，2026/4/3），使公債殖利率回落，亦助股市評價提升。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國消費及就業穩定，經濟維持擴張，股市已達合理修正幅度</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">過去在經濟未衰退狀況下，重大事件造成美股合理修正幅度者在10~20%間。而<u>此次美股主要指數最大修正幅度已達9.8%至16.6%</u>(見下表)。<br><br>而美國經濟仍保持穩定，2月核心零售銷售月增0.5%優於預期；非農就業新增人數17.8萬人（預期6.5萬人）、失業率降至4.3 %亦明顯優於預期。美國消費動能及就業市場保持穩定，經濟仍維持擴張狀態。<br><br><u>台股在上週三大幅反彈前亦已回檔10.9%</u>，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線(32,328點)附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">因美伊戰爭造成美、台股波段跌幅</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">主要指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">道瓊指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">S&amp;P 500</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">Nasdaq</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">費城半導體</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">台股</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段高點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">50512</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7002</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">23988</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">8498</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">35579</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段低點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">45057</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">6317</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">20690</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7084</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">31705</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">跌幅</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-9.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-13.70%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-16.60%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.90%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：計算自速霸贏家，2026/4。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI進入推論階段，基礎設施及關鍵零組件需求持續爆發，基本面仍正向發展</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2006年AI發展雖已步入第四年，但因新的AI龐大潛在市場出現，AI使用人數及滲透率快速上升，科技相關基礎設施架構全面改變，加上算力需求指數級成長，以及Nvidia等大型科技公司主導技術發展、計畫性提升產品規格及應用層面快速拓展，AI發展及科技業成長動能仍未見減速。<br><br>而此亦繼續提供台股企業獲利成長動能綿延不絕的力量。在股市已修正之際，評價已處合理水準，在美、伊戰爭影響漸減後，股市仍將反應基本面正向發展。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"台股短線的波段跌幅為10.9%，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-99.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/07 10:15:01","startTime":"2026-04-07T10:15:01.1100000+08:00","metaTitle":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-07T10:21:00.2230000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c"}],"news01":[{"id":3067,"guid":"6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 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Hwa Global IoT and Tech Fund - USD","ec002":"","twName":"全球物聯網科技美元","pnav":"75.97","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"-1.34","changeRange":"-1.73%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">物聯網逐步滲透至企業應用與日常生活，並擴大應用層面，深具長期成長潛力，科技產業也持續有創新的投資機會。</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">深入研究企業營運模式、未來成長力道及評價位置，精選獲利加速成長與下檔保護兼具的個股為核心持股，並以景氣循環位置及各類股相關性來管控整體投資風險。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2016/07/04","ec006":"美元","ec010":"合作金庫商業銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"2.00%","ec013":"0.260%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資股票型","ec020_sort":5084,"ec022":"","ec024":"全球","ec026":"股票型","ec027":"","ec028":"","ec030":"T+4日","ec036":"合作金庫商業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華全球物聯網科技基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華全球物聯網科技基金-美元 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":0,"fundSize_TWD":"2706646193.464200","roi3m":"15.68%","roi6m":"32.82%","roi1y":"99.23%","roi2y":"98.35%","roi3y":"179.02%","roiLaunch":"439.90%","roiY2D":"15.68%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"黃俊瑞","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[{"name":"蔡盛宇","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"news":[{"id":2677,"guid":"315d1aba-57e3-401e-bed8-d4d6aa71bca0","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"科技進步不間斷，短期修正創造長期買點","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"foreword-2 py-md-7 px-md-12 py-sm-5 px-sm-3\"><div class=\"title mb-7 flex justify-center\"><div class=\"title-container\"><div class=\"title-text text-7-bold color-white\">重點整理</div></div></div><div class=\"detail\"><div class=\"detail-list flex mb-5 align-items-start\"><div class=\"mt-1 mr-1\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/check.svg\"></div><p class=\"detail-list-info text-9-regular\">川普政策隨時有轉向的機會，若此時大舉離場，可能錯過股市回升機會。</p></div><div class=\"detail-list flex mb-5 align-items-start\"><div class=\"mt-1 mr-1\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/check.svg\"></div><p class=\"detail-list-info text-9-regular\">破壞式創新及資本主義是美國經濟的支柱，每次危機過後美國經濟與股市仍能重回成長，大修正後提供逢低買進機會。</p></div><div class=\"detail-list flex mb-5 align-items-start\"><div class=\"mt-1 mr-1\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/check.svg\"></div><p class=\"detail-list-info text-9-regular\">AI帶起生產力革命，在世局混亂下企業為了生存更需要AI幫忙來提升競爭力，這是經濟結構的調整，也是企業新趨勢的調整，是中長期做多的投資機會。</p></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">科技進步不間斷，短期修正創造長期買點</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">科技創新與應用，是提升生產力與改善生活品質的關鍵，而且在新的投資機會不斷出現下，企業獲利的高成長性支持科技股長期報酬潛力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">今(2025)年以來科技股因雜音干擾而回檔，主因DeepSeek問世、川普關稅政策反覆，使得股市漲多之後出現修正整理走勢，然而科技股雖有短期修正，但也創造長期買點，尤其科技進步不間斷，長期投資的累積價值越墊越高。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202504/65982aa6-616c-40ce-b1a6-38d03b56c57420250402-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上示意圖僅供參考。</strong>AI是Artificial Intelligence(人工智慧)的簡稱。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI軟體及應用層面加速發展與擴大</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">展望AI科技產業的未來發展，首先從科技巨頭的AI軍備競賽來觀察，雲端服務提供商持續加大資本支出，其主要目的即為增強算力；另從應用端來看，由於科技進步帶動算力成本的下降，將使AI加速下放到應用端，換言之，AI在終端應用的發展變得簡單及便宜，使用者也會更多。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202504/5b08c43d-d81a-471a-9757-1c2b537570a120250402-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，AI投資題材將愈來愈多元，研判距離成熟期的階段還很遠，而且軟體及應用層面的加速發展與擴大，又會回頭帶動AI基礎建設的需求，進而形成一個正向的循環發展。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202504/fbf1b888-2d0c-492d-b725-73923fdc8eba20250402-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>本資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">科技股的企業獲利成長性高</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">從科技股的獲利及指數表現來看，由於進步與創新，科技股的企業獲利成長性高，也支持長期較高的股價成長潛力，而科技股在短期可能出現相對弱勢表現，然而股價修正整理過後，最終仍可望反映較高的企業獲利成長性。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202504/21bb0527-a00c-4de5-8f62-4e1c9fa1a78120250402-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。投資科技類股可能受科技產業前景及評價變化的影響較大；波動度亦可能較大。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2025/3/21。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">定時定額物聯網基金</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&amp;Fund=77\" target=\"_blank\">立享終身扣款0手續費</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"今年以來科技股震盪，主因DeepSeek問世、川普關稅政策反覆，使得股市漲多之後出現修正整理走勢，然而科技股短期修正也創造長期買點。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202504/f4a3abf4-120c-4af1-acff-07d03304fbadview-14.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,全球,科技","postTime":"2025/04/17 09:13:14","startTime":"2025-04-17T09:13:18.9800000+08:00","metaTitle":"科技進步不間斷，短期修正創造長期買點｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-04-17T09:13:22.2200000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/315d1aba-57e3-401e-bed8-d4d6aa71bca0"},{"id":2655,"guid":"13db3cf5-8de4-4f09-92e3-c50646179f85","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"掌握全球科技大潮，長線布局的成長首選","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">科技進步不間斷，短期修正創造長期買點</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">科技創新與應用，是提升生產力與改善生活品質的關鍵，而且在新的投資機會不斷出現下，企業獲利的高成長性支持科技股長期報酬潛力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">今(2025)年以來科技股因雜音干擾而回檔，主因DeepSeek問世、川普關稅政策反覆，使得股市漲多之後出現修正整理走勢，然而科技股雖有短期修正，但也創造長期買點，尤其科技進步不間斷，長期投資的累積價值越墊越高。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202504/ed801176-10ba-43b2-a658-f2515d75763720250402-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上示意圖僅供參考。</strong>AI是Artificial Intelligence(人工智慧)的簡稱。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI軟體及應用層面加速發展與擴大</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">展望AI科技產業的未來發展，首先從科技巨頭的AI軍備競賽來觀察，雲端服務提供商持續加大資本支出，其主要目的即為增強算力；另從應用端來看，由於科技進步帶動算力成本的下降，將使AI加速下放到應用端，換言之，AI在終端應用的發展變得簡單及便宜，使用者也會更多。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202504/27de61fe-fcea-4cb8-8b4d-613cf787c53220250402-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，AI投資題材將愈來愈多元，研判距離成熟期的階段還很遠，而且軟體及應用層面的加速發展與擴大，又會回頭帶動AI基礎建設的需求，進而形成一個正向的循環發展。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202504/63d2b270-1777-45f6-941f-632f3675c4ea20250402-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>本資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">科技股的企業獲利成長性高</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">從科技股的獲利及指數表現來看，由於進步與創新，科技股的企業獲利成長性高，也支持長期較高的股價成長潛力，而科技股在短期可能出現相對弱勢表現，然而股價修正整理過後，最終仍可望反映較高的企業獲利成長性。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202504/7221b473-5740-4662-9fa7-453bd089cc8d20250402-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。投資科技類股可能受科技產業前景及評價變化的影響較大；波動度亦可能較大。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2025/3/21。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"隨著物聯網及全球科技發展，掌握產業趨勢變化、持續關注新興機會，布局具競爭優勢與獲利能力佳的優質公司。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202504/view-100.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,全球,科技","postTime":"2025/04/04 00:00:00","startTime":"2025-04-04T00:00:00.0000000+08:00","metaTitle":"掌握全球科技大潮，長線布局的成長首選｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-04-02T11:11:34.0700000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/13db3cf5-8de4-4f09-92e3-c50646179f85"}],"news01":[{"id":2677,"guid":"315d1aba-57e3-401e-bed8-d4d6aa71bca0","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"科技進步不間斷，短期修正創造長期買點","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"foreword-2 py-md-7 px-md-12 py-sm-5 px-sm-3\"><div class=\"title mb-7 flex justify-center\"><div class=\"title-container\"><div class=\"title-text text-7-bold color-white\">重點整理</div></div></div><div class=\"detail\"><div class=\"detail-list flex mb-5 align-items-start\"><div class=\"mt-1 mr-1\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/check.svg\"></div><p class=\"detail-list-info text-9-regular\">川普政策隨時有轉向的機會，若此時大舉離場，可能錯過股市回升機會。</p></div><div class=\"detail-list flex mb-5 align-items-start\"><div class=\"mt-1 mr-1\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/check.svg\"></div><p class=\"detail-list-info text-9-regular\">破壞式創新及資本主義是美國經濟的支柱，每次危機過後美國經濟與股市仍能重回成長，大修正後提供逢低買進機會。</p></div><div class=\"detail-list flex mb-5 align-items-start\"><div class=\"mt-1 mr-1\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/check.svg\"></div><p class=\"detail-list-info text-9-regular\">AI帶起生產力革命，在世局混亂下企業為了生存更需要AI幫忙來提升競爭力，這是經濟結構的調整，也是企業新趨勢的調整，是中長期做多的投資機會。</p></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">科技進步不間斷，短期修正創造長期買點</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">科技創新與應用，是提升生產力與改善生活品質的關鍵，而且在新的投資機會不斷出現下，企業獲利的高成長性支持科技股長期報酬潛力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">今(2025)年以來科技股因雜音干擾而回檔，主因DeepSeek問世、川普關稅政策反覆，使得股市漲多之後出現修正整理走勢，然而科技股雖有短期修正，但也創造長期買點，尤其科技進步不間斷，長期投資的累積價值越墊越高。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202504/65982aa6-616c-40ce-b1a6-38d03b56c57420250402-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上示意圖僅供參考。</strong>AI是Artificial Intelligence(人工智慧)的簡稱。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI軟體及應用層面加速發展與擴大</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">展望AI科技產業的未來發展，首先從科技巨頭的AI軍備競賽來觀察，雲端服務提供商持續加大資本支出，其主要目的即為增強算力；另從應用端來看，由於科技進步帶動算力成本的下降，將使AI加速下放到應用端，換言之，AI在終端應用的發展變得簡單及便宜，使用者也會更多。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202504/5b08c43d-d81a-471a-9757-1c2b537570a120250402-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，AI投資題材將愈來愈多元，研判距離成熟期的階段還很遠，而且軟體及應用層面的加速發展與擴大，又會回頭帶動AI基礎建設的需求，進而形成一個正向的循環發展。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202504/fbf1b888-2d0c-492d-b725-73923fdc8eba20250402-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>本資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">科技股的企業獲利成長性高</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">從科技股的獲利及指數表現來看，由於進步與創新，科技股的企業獲利成長性高，也支持長期較高的股價成長潛力，而科技股在短期可能出現相對弱勢表現，然而股價修正整理過後，最終仍可望反映較高的企業獲利成長性。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202504/21bb0527-a00c-4de5-8f62-4e1c9fa1a78120250402-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。投資科技類股可能受科技產業前景及評價變化的影響較大；波動度亦可能較大。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2025/3/21。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">定時定額物聯網基金</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&amp;Fund=77\" target=\"_blank\">立享終身扣款0手續費</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"今年以來科技股震盪，主因DeepSeek問世、川普關稅政策反覆，使得股市漲多之後出現修正整理走勢，然而科技股短期修正也創造長期買點。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202504/f4a3abf4-120c-4af1-acff-07d03304fbadview-14.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,全球,科技","postTime":"2025/04/17 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Hwa Global IoT and Tech Fund - TWD","ec002":"","twName":"全球物聯網科技新臺幣","pnav":"74.07","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"-1.18","changeRange":"-1.57%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">物聯網逐步滲透至企業應用與日常生活，並擴大應用層面，深具長期成長潛力，科技產業也持續有創新的投資機會。</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">深入研究企業營運模式、未來成長力道及評價位置，精選獲利加速成長與下檔保護兼具的個股為核心持股，並以景氣循環位置及各類股相關性來管控整體投資風險。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2016/07/04","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"合作金庫商業銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"2.00%","ec013":"0.260%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資股票型","ec020_sort":5084,"ec022":"","ec024":"全球","ec026":"股票型","ec027":"","ec028":"","ec029":"","ec030":"T+4日","ec033":"","ec034":"","ec036":"合作金庫商業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華全球物聯網科技基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec040":"0","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":1,"isRename":"0","renameArticle":"","metaTitle":"復華全球物聯網科技基金-新臺幣 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","prepayRate":"          ","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"定時定額0％手續費,存基金","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"19511914874.000000","roi3m":"17.62%","roi6m":"38.92%","roi1y":"90.58%","roi2y":"96.83%","roi3y":"191.01%","roiLaunch":"434.00%","roiY2D":"17.62%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"1","value02":"1","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"黃俊瑞","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[{"name":"蔡盛宇","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"news":[{"id":3065,"guid":"a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美伊戰爭對股市影響降低</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週美國雖然宣布封鎖荷姆茲海峽，但並未改變股市上漲趨勢。由於美伊可望再重啟談判，且川普釋出已近達成協議，因此股市並未再受美伊戰爭發展，以及油價大幅波動所影響；而美國聯準會(FED)經濟褐皮書，以及週初請失業救濟金人數，皆顯示美國經濟穩定。&nbsp;<br><br>AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然週四台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong><br><br><strong>總計一週（2026/4/13-4/17）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲3.2%、4.5%、6.8%、7.5%；台股週漲3.9%以36804點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑5個bps至4.26%，美元指數跌0.5%至98.2，<strong><u>油價(WTI)週跌13.2%至每桶83.85美元</u></strong>，黃金價格反彈1.9%至每盎司4879.6美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI發展及美國經濟穩定支撐股市正向趨勢</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">因預期美伊可望達成協議，雖然油價仍維持高檔震盪，戰爭結束後包括受損煉油及天然氣設施亦仍需時間恢復，但股市反應未來，且美國能源自主性高，雖然短期物價增速亦將因此上揚，但中長期對油價的預期將可望維持穩定，中長期通膨預期亦未明顯上升。上週公佈的美國3月生產者物價指數(PPI)月增0.5%、核心PPI月增0.1%，皆低於預期。<br><br>FED公布經濟褐皮書，雖因油價上漲將產生潛在物價壓力，但美國整體經濟及就業仍維持穩定，週初請失業救濟金人數降至20.7萬人低檔，再加上AI的樂觀發展，美伊戰爭對美國經濟並未產生太大影響，利率期貨亦顯市FED於年底前可望維持利率不變。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台積電樂觀展望延續，台股長期多頭趨勢不變</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台積電法說會展望持續樂觀，受AI與高效能運算需求強勁帶動，3奈米製程加速擴產並成為成長主力。第一季營收與獲利表現亮眼，稅後淨利顯著成長，毛利率達66.2%並創新高，顯示先進製程帶動獲利能力提升。公司將資本支出展望提高至約520～560億美元偏向上緣上準，用於擴充先進製程與封裝產能。展望第二季，營收預估持續成長、年增率將達四成以上，毛利率維持高檔水準。<br><br>總括而言，台積電延續對於2026年業績展望三成以上成長的預測，且表示AI需求仍非常強勁，佔台股四成以上權重的台積電，以及台灣AI關鍵供應鏈角色的獨特地位，在AI由訓練開始進入推論驅動的階段，算力需求及相關基礎設施建立仍將快速成長，未來2~3年台股企業展望仍正向發展。選擇產品規格、數量、及價格同時提升的公司，繼續長期持有，仍是合適的投資方式。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-90.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/20 09:21:33","startTime":"2026-04-20T09:21:33.3330000+08:00","metaTitle":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-20T09:26:56.7500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea"},{"id":1615,"guid":"71ff4a2a-2212-4148-ad57-6542844c44e9","articleCategory":"首頁推薦基金文章","title":"掌握全球科技大潮，長線布局的成長首選","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"foreword-2 py-md-7 px-md-12 py-sm-5 px-sm-3\"><div class=\"title mb-7 flex justify-center\"><div class=\"title-container\"><div class=\"title-text text-7-bold color-white\">怎麼買？</div></div></div><div class=\"detail\"><div class=\"detail-list flex mb-5 align-items-start\"><div class=\"mt-1 mr-1\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/check.svg\"></div><p class=\"detail-list-info text-9-regular\">全球人類科技持續進步，物聯網科技趨勢更是明確，跟上全球科技浪潮已是投資人的共識，尤其本基金並非布局提供物聯網裝置、價格競爭激烈的科技公司，而是主要投資在受惠物聯網科技、可轉型成功的長線價值成長股，因此是<span style=\"color:#E00000;\">長期投資的必備基金</span>！</p></div><div class=\"detail-list flex mb-5 align-items-start\"><div class=\"mt-1 mr-1\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/check.svg\"></div><p class=\"detail-list-info text-9-regular\">現在<span style=\"color:#E00000;\">網路定時定額或單筆申購，均享0手續費優惠</span>，若您新增金複合投資法合約，也可以將復華全球物聯網科技基金納入子基金之一喔！</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&amp;Fund=77\" target=\"_blank\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex justify-center align-items-center px-5 py-1\"><span class=\"text-9-medium lh-14 color-white mr-1\">網路定時定額享終身0</span> <img class=\"mt-0\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/white/arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\">&nbsp;</i></a> &nbsp;&nbsp;<a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&amp;Fund=77\" target=\"_blank\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex justify-center align-items-center px-5 py-1\"><span class=\"text-9-medium lh-14 color-white mr-1\">網路單筆申購享0手續費</span> <img class=\"mt-0\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/white/arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\">&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">科技進步不間斷，短期修正創造長期買點</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">科技創新與應用，是提升生產力與改善生活品質的關鍵，而且在新的投資機會不斷出現下，企業獲利的高成長性支持科技股長期報酬潛力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">短線上科技股因雜音干擾而回檔，主因DeepSeek問世、川普關稅政策反覆，使得股市漲多之後出現修正整理走勢，然而科技股短期修正，卻也創造長期買點，尤其科技進步不間斷，長期投資的累積價值越墊越高。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202504/20250402-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上示意圖僅供參考。</strong>AI是Artificial Intelligence(人工智慧)的簡稱。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI軟體及應用層面加速發展與擴大</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">展望AI科技產業的未來發展，首先從科技巨頭的AI軍備競賽來觀察，雲端服務提供商持續加大資本支出，其主要目的即為增強算力；另從應用端來看，由於科技進步帶動算力成本的下降，將使AI加速下放到應用端，換言之，AI在終端應用的發展變得簡單及便宜，使用者也會更多。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202504/20250402-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，AI投資題材將愈來愈多元，研判距離成熟期的階段還很遠，而且軟體及應用層面的加速發展與擴大，又會回頭帶動AI基礎建設的需求，進而形成一個正向的循環發展。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202504/20250402-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>本資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">FED對美國經濟展望維持樂觀</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">最新FOMC會議，FED公布新的委員會成員經濟及利率預測，雖然上調了年底的物價增速，但亦上調了經濟成長預測，且維持失業率4.4%不變(見下表)。&nbsp;<br><br>雖然美伊戰爭使得近期油價大漲，不過因近代戰爭對股市影響通常屬短期干擾因素，FED主席強調對經濟影響具不確定性，但FED成員仍維持年底FED Funds Rate將降至3.0%左右，至年底前FED仍有1~2碼的降息空間。&nbsp;<br><br>不過短期美伊戰爭尚無結束跡象，油價持續高檔下，投資人對FED降息預期已近消退，亦成為美股持續修正之因素。<strong>目前利率期貨顯示，FED在年底利率維持不變的機率高達80.3%，而降息及升息的機率則分別為14.5%及5.2%(~2026/3/20)</strong>。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">FED美國經濟預測(2026/3/18)：FED上修經濟成長率及通膨增速，但尚對年底前降息趨勢預期不變</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">%</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2027</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2028</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">長期</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">主要變化</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">GDP成長率</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2.4</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2.3</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2.0</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\"><span style=\"color:hsl(354,62%,44%);\"><strong>上修經濟成長</strong></span></td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">失業率</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">4.4</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">4.3</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">4.2</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">4.2</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\"><span style=\"color:hsl(354,62%,44%);\"><strong>失業率不變</strong></span></td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">PCE物價</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2.7</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2.2</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2.0</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2.0</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\"><span style=\"color:hsl(354,62%,44%);\"><strong>上修物價增速，長期不變</strong></span></td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">核心PCE物價</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2.7</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2.2</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2.0</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">--</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\"><span style=\"color:hsl(354,62%,44%);\"><strong>上修物價增速，長期不變</strong></span></td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">FED Funds Rate</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.4</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\"><span style=\"color:hsl(354,62%,44%);\"><strong>降息趨勢不變</strong></span></td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：FED網站，2026/3/18。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">定時定額物聯網基金</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&amp;Fund=77\" target=\"_blank\">立享終身扣款0手續費</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"隨著物聯網及全球科技發展，精選獲利加速成長、技術具領先優勢的贏家","url":"","urlType":"","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202301/view-15.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,全球,科技","postTime":"2026/03/30 17:16:42","startTime":"2026-03-30T17:16:48.4970000+08:00","status":0,"metaTitle":"掌握全球科技大潮，長線布局的成長首選 - 全球物聯網科技｜投資觀點，復華投信-享退休找復華","metaDescription":"","metaKeyword":"","value01":0,"value02":"","value03":"","value04":"","value05":"","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-30T17:16:50.0700000+08:00","files":"","canEdit":false,"isFund":0,"isMFund":0,"isMedia":0,"isArticle":0,"isDividend":0,"dividendType":"","dividendRoute":"","categoryGuid":"8c2a02e2-f52a-46ea-a71f-b90e4ae0985e","category":{"id":21010,"guid":"8c2a02e2-f52a-46ea-a71f-b90e4ae0985e","name":"首頁推薦基金文章","parentGuid":"","route":"/insights_list/article_list/recommend_content?page=1","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/recommend_content/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"","isEnabled":1,"show":0,"showm":0,"description":"","metaTitle":"","metaDescription":"","metaKeyword":"","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/ea975eaf-ace7-4d37-b0e2-22ee851cc211G.logo.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12317,"guid":"e12e95d7-9076-4c93-a599-74a24cdaf632","name":"首頁推薦基金文章","parentGuid":"","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/recommend_content/71ff4a2a-2212-4148-ad57-6542844c44e9"}],"news01":[{"id":3065,"guid":"a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美伊戰爭對股市影響降低</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週美國雖然宣布封鎖荷姆茲海峽，但並未改變股市上漲趨勢。由於美伊可望再重啟談判，且川普釋出已近達成協議，因此股市並未再受美伊戰爭發展，以及油價大幅波動所影響；而美國聯準會(FED)經濟褐皮書，以及週初請失業救濟金人數，皆顯示美國經濟穩定。&nbsp;<br><br>AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然週四台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong><br><br><strong>總計一週（2026/4/13-4/17）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲3.2%、4.5%、6.8%、7.5%；台股週漲3.9%以36804點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑5個bps至4.26%，美元指數跌0.5%至98.2，<strong><u>油價(WTI)週跌13.2%至每桶83.85美元</u></strong>，黃金價格反彈1.9%至每盎司4879.6美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI發展及美國經濟穩定支撐股市正向趨勢</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">因預期美伊可望達成協議，雖然油價仍維持高檔震盪，戰爭結束後包括受損煉油及天然氣設施亦仍需時間恢復，但股市反應未來，且美國能源自主性高，雖然短期物價增速亦將因此上揚，但中長期對油價的預期將可望維持穩定，中長期通膨預期亦未明顯上升。上週公佈的美國3月生產者物價指數(PPI)月增0.5%、核心PPI月增0.1%，皆低於預期。<br><br>FED公布經濟褐皮書，雖因油價上漲將產生潛在物價壓力，但美國整體經濟及就業仍維持穩定，週初請失業救濟金人數降至20.7萬人低檔，再加上AI的樂觀發展，美伊戰爭對美國經濟並未產生太大影響，利率期貨亦顯市FED於年底前可望維持利率不變。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台積電樂觀展望延續，台股長期多頭趨勢不變</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台積電法說會展望持續樂觀，受AI與高效能運算需求強勁帶動，3奈米製程加速擴產並成為成長主力。第一季營收與獲利表現亮眼，稅後淨利顯著成長，毛利率達66.2%並創新高，顯示先進製程帶動獲利能力提升。公司將資本支出展望提高至約520～560億美元偏向上緣上準，用於擴充先進製程與封裝產能。展望第二季，營收預估持續成長、年增率將達四成以上，毛利率維持高檔水準。<br><br>總括而言，台積電延續對於2026年業績展望三成以上成長的預測，且表示AI需求仍非常強勁，佔台股四成以上權重的台積電，以及台灣AI關鍵供應鏈角色的獨特地位，在AI由訓練開始進入推論驅動的階段，算力需求及相關基礎設施建立仍將快速成長，未來2~3年台股企業展望仍正向發展。選擇產品規格、數量、及價格同時提升的公司，繼續長期持有，仍是合適的投資方式。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-90.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/20 09:21:33","startTime":"2026-04-20T09:21:33.3330000+08:00","metaTitle":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-20T09:26:56.7500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/77.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/77.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/77.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=77","url2":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&Fund=77","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1042,"updateTime":"2023-07-12T14:28:29.7470000+08:00","guid":"e90a4d67-3319-4b87-8940-4544ead29e39","fundID":"27","twNameFull":"復華全球原物料基金","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa Global Commodity Fund","ec002":"","twName":"全球原物料","pnav":"15.79","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"-0.46","changeRange":"-2.83%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul><li>隨地球資源稀缺、原物料越用越少，搭配能源轉型趨勢，布局多元題材之傳統能源/新能源、金屬礦物、農業等相關產業。</li><li>依景氣動能、各類原物料供需、未來技術發展趨勢等，決定配置內容；追求參與上升波段行情，於市場反轉時控制風險。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2010/03/30","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"玉山商業銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"2.00%","ec013":"0.240%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資股票型","ec020_sort":5084,"ec022":"","ec024":"全球","ec026":"股票型","ec028":"","ec030":"T+4日","ec036":"玉山商業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華全球原物料基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":1,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華全球原物料基金 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"1676462409.000000","roi3m":"10.13%","roi6m":"18.08%","roi1y":"31.10%","roi2y":"20.33%","roi3y":"21.70%","roiLaunch":"39.10%","roiY2D":"10.13%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"蔡盛宇","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":1617,"guid":"423f41ec-bef4-4982-9753-eb8cad050644","articleCategory":"首頁推薦基金文章","title":"戰略資源的儲備競賽 - 全球原物料的投資機會","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-5 flex\"><p class=\"text-9-medium color-white\">基金特色：</p></div><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\"> 原物料涵蓋食衣住行各產業</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">隨地球資源稀缺、原物料越用越少，搭配能源轉型趨勢，布局多元題材之傳統能源/新能源、金屬礦物、農業等相關產業。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure><p class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202211/20221102-7.png\"></p></figure><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\"> 多元配置並控制風險</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">依景氣動能、各類原物料供需、未來技術發展趨勢等，決定配置內容；追求參與上升波段行情，於市場反轉時控制風險。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure><p class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202211/20221102-8.png\"></p></figure><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-5 flex\"><p class=\"text-9-medium color-white\">市場展望</p></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">因預期美伊可望達成協議，雖然油價仍維持高檔震盪，戰爭結束後包括受損煉油及天然氣設施亦仍需時間恢復，但股市反應未來，且美國能源自主性高，即使短期物價增速亦將因此上揚，但中長期對油價的預期將可望維持穩定，中長期通膨預期亦未明顯上升。<br><br>美國整體經濟及就業仍維持穩定，週初請失業救濟金人數降至20.7萬人低檔，再加上AI的樂觀發展，美伊戰爭對美國經濟並未產生太大影響，利率期貨亦顯市美國聯準會(FED)於年底前可望維持利率不變，股市中長期正向發展趨勢亦未改變。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-5 flex\"><p class=\"text-9-medium color-white\">新．戰時經濟</p></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國總統川普動作頻頻，以販毒為由逮捕委內瑞拉總統，實則防堵中國勢力在中南美洲擴張；川普還想要礦產豐富的格陵蘭，就是要增強關鍵資源的自主化、去中國化。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>此外，川普要求軍工公司停止配息，將資金全部投入生產；美國國防部在2025/9/5更名為「戰爭部」的意圖明顯，全球金融市場關注川普在位的四年，還會出什麼招，讓美國再次偉大？</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">稀土的稀缺性及戰略地位高</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/20260116-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-5 flex\"><p class=\"text-9-medium color-white\">戰略資源的儲備競賽</p></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">地緣政治是風險，但也可能帶來投資機會，例如2025年金價因避險需求及保值性而大漲。在各國擴大軍事防備下，武器彈藥所需的稀有金屬受關注；銅的供給也趕不上各國的基礎建設需求。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>2026年或可繼續關注原物料，但也需留意波動較大的特性。整體而言，原物料資產價格，有機會迎來基本面(供需)成長及評價面擴張的雙升機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/20260116-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/1/15。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/insights_list/article_list/content/views/7db1abf4-7554-4465-837d-1e0a68b84ada\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\">了解更多 - 全球秩序重構下的原物料投資機會</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"隨地球資源稀缺、原物料越用越少，搭配能源轉型趨勢，布局多元題材之傳統能源/新能源、金屬礦物、農業等相關產業。","url":"","urlType":"","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202301/view-9.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 09:41:54","startTime":"2026-04-23T09:41:58.6970000+08:00","status":0,"metaTitle":"依景氣循環位置，參與能源及農林漁牧礦之波段行情 - 全球原物料｜投資觀點，復華投信-享退休找復華","metaDescription":"","metaKeyword":"","value01":0,"value02":"","value03":"","value04":"","value05":"","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-23T09:42:11.5670000+08:00","files":"","canEdit":false,"isFund":0,"isMFund":0,"isMedia":0,"isArticle":0,"isDividend":0,"dividendType":"","dividendRoute":"","categoryGuid":"8c2a02e2-f52a-46ea-a71f-b90e4ae0985e","category":{"id":21010,"guid":"8c2a02e2-f52a-46ea-a71f-b90e4ae0985e","name":"首頁推薦基金文章","parentGuid":"","route":"/insights_list/article_list/recommend_content?page=1","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/recommend_content/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"","isEnabled":1,"show":0,"showm":0,"description":"","metaTitle":"","metaDescription":"","metaKeyword":"","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/ea975eaf-ace7-4d37-b0e2-22ee851cc211G.logo.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12317,"guid":"e12e95d7-9076-4c93-a599-74a24cdaf632","name":"首頁推薦基金文章","parentGuid":"","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/recommend_content/423f41ec-bef4-4982-9753-eb8cad050644"},{"id":3053,"guid":"af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美、伊表態結束戰爭意願，FED升息預期暫消退，股市觸底反彈</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市在美、伊戰爭預期可能將結束，伊朗總統亦表示願意結束戰爭，雖然川普演說表示將繼續攻擊伊朗，直至與伊朗達成協議、油價繼續彈升，但伊朗開始放寬通行荷莫茲海峽條件，使已因美伊戰爭修正近一個月的股市風險情緒好轉，美股波段下跌10%左右後出現反彈。<br><br>台股在週一及週二強勢股補跌後，搭配美、伊戰爭可望近尾聲預期，以及週二台股融資餘額劇減百億台幣以上，週三台股亦現大幅反彈。<br><br>而美國聯準會(FED)主席Powell暗示，短期不會因油價大漲改變貨幣政策立場，使升息預期減弱，美國公債殖利率回落，亦降低了抑制股市的力量。<br><br>總計<strong>一週（2026/3/30-4/3）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲1.7%、3.0%、4.1%、5.0%，台股下跌1.6%以32572點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑9個bps至4.35%，美元指數持平於100.18，<u>油價(WTI)再漲11.9%至每桶111.54美元</u>，黃金價格反彈3.4%至每盎司4679.70美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">股市風險情緒好轉觸底反彈，戰爭延續時間及油價走勢，仍為關注焦點</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美伊戰爭造成股市下跌，主要即來自於伊朗封鎖荷莫茲海峽造成油價大漲，引發通膨及各國央行可能升息擔憂。在美、伊皆有結束戰爭的意願，以及荷莫茲海峽船隻通行數開始上升下，股市風險情緒獲得改善。<br><br>不過，短期<u>油價仍因為戰火未停歇持續走高</u>，美伊戰爭是否能如川普所言於二至三週內結束，以及荷莫茲海峽的封鎖情況，攸關油價及未來通膨發展及後續對經濟的影響。<br><br>而上週FED主席<u>Powell亦表示不會因短期油價大漲調整貨幣政策</u>，原本投資人對FED升息預期機率上升的狀況改變，FED繼續維持利率政策不變的預期回升（年底前利率維持不變的機率為69.5%，2026/4/3），使公債殖利率回落，亦助股市評價提升。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國消費及就業穩定，經濟維持擴張，股市已達合理修正幅度</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">過去在經濟未衰退狀況下，重大事件造成美股合理修正幅度者在10~20%間。而<u>此次美股主要指數最大修正幅度已達9.8%至16.6%</u>(見下表)。<br><br>而美國經濟仍保持穩定，2月核心零售銷售月增0.5%優於預期；非農就業新增人數17.8萬人（預期6.5萬人）、失業率降至4.3 %亦明顯優於預期。美國消費動能及就業市場保持穩定，經濟仍維持擴張狀態。<br><br><u>台股在上週三大幅反彈前亦已回檔10.9%</u>，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線(32,328點)附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">因美伊戰爭造成美、台股波段跌幅</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">主要指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">道瓊指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">S&amp;P 500</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">Nasdaq</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">費城半導體</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">台股</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段高點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">50512</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7002</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">23988</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">8498</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">35579</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段低點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">45057</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">6317</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">20690</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7084</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">31705</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">跌幅</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-9.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-13.70%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-16.60%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.90%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：計算自速霸贏家，2026/4。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI進入推論階段，基礎設施及關鍵零組件需求持續爆發，基本面仍正向發展</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2006年AI發展雖已步入第四年，但因新的AI龐大潛在市場出現，AI使用人數及滲透率快速上升，科技相關基礎設施架構全面改變，加上算力需求指數級成長，以及Nvidia等大型科技公司主導技術發展、計畫性提升產品規格及應用層面快速拓展，AI發展及科技業成長動能仍未見減速。<br><br>而此亦繼續提供台股企業獲利成長動能綿延不絕的力量。在股市已修正之際，評價已處合理水準，在美、伊戰爭影響漸減後，股市仍將反應基本面正向發展。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"台股短線的波段跌幅為10.9%，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-99.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/07 10:15:01","startTime":"2026-04-07T10:15:01.1100000+08:00","metaTitle":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-07T10:21:00.2230000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c"}],"news01":[{"id":3053,"guid":"af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美、伊表態結束戰爭意願，FED升息預期暫消退，股市觸底反彈</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市在美、伊戰爭預期可能將結束，伊朗總統亦表示願意結束戰爭，雖然川普演說表示將繼續攻擊伊朗，直至與伊朗達成協議、油價繼續彈升，但伊朗開始放寬通行荷莫茲海峽條件，使已因美伊戰爭修正近一個月的股市風險情緒好轉，美股波段下跌10%左右後出現反彈。<br><br>台股在週一及週二強勢股補跌後，搭配美、伊戰爭可望近尾聲預期，以及週二台股融資餘額劇減百億台幣以上，週三台股亦現大幅反彈。<br><br>而美國聯準會(FED)主席Powell暗示，短期不會因油價大漲改變貨幣政策立場，使升息預期減弱，美國公債殖利率回落，亦降低了抑制股市的力量。<br><br>總計<strong>一週（2026/3/30-4/3）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲1.7%、3.0%、4.1%、5.0%，台股下跌1.6%以32572點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑9個bps至4.35%，美元指數持平於100.18，<u>油價(WTI)再漲11.9%至每桶111.54美元</u>，黃金價格反彈3.4%至每盎司4679.70美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">股市風險情緒好轉觸底反彈，戰爭延續時間及油價走勢，仍為關注焦點</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美伊戰爭造成股市下跌，主要即來自於伊朗封鎖荷莫茲海峽造成油價大漲，引發通膨及各國央行可能升息擔憂。在美、伊皆有結束戰爭的意願，以及荷莫茲海峽船隻通行數開始上升下，股市風險情緒獲得改善。<br><br>不過，短期<u>油價仍因為戰火未停歇持續走高</u>，美伊戰爭是否能如川普所言於二至三週內結束，以及荷莫茲海峽的封鎖情況，攸關油價及未來通膨發展及後續對經濟的影響。<br><br>而上週FED主席<u>Powell亦表示不會因短期油價大漲調整貨幣政策</u>，原本投資人對FED升息預期機率上升的狀況改變，FED繼續維持利率政策不變的預期回升（年底前利率維持不變的機率為69.5%，2026/4/3），使公債殖利率回落，亦助股市評價提升。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國消費及就業穩定，經濟維持擴張，股市已達合理修正幅度</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">過去在經濟未衰退狀況下，重大事件造成美股合理修正幅度者在10~20%間。而<u>此次美股主要指數最大修正幅度已達9.8%至16.6%</u>(見下表)。<br><br>而美國經濟仍保持穩定，2月核心零售銷售月增0.5%優於預期；非農就業新增人數17.8萬人（預期6.5萬人）、失業率降至4.3 %亦明顯優於預期。美國消費動能及就業市場保持穩定，經濟仍維持擴張狀態。<br><br><u>台股在上週三大幅反彈前亦已回檔10.9%</u>，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線(32,328點)附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">因美伊戰爭造成美、台股波段跌幅</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">主要指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">道瓊指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">S&amp;P 500</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">Nasdaq</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">費城半導體</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">台股</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段高點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">50512</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7002</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">23988</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">8498</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">35579</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段低點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">45057</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">6317</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">20690</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7084</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">31705</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">跌幅</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-9.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-13.70%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-16.60%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.90%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：計算自速霸贏家，2026/4。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI進入推論階段，基礎設施及關鍵零組件需求持續爆發，基本面仍正向發展</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2006年AI發展雖已步入第四年，但因新的AI龐大潛在市場出現，AI使用人數及滲透率快速上升，科技相關基礎設施架構全面改變，加上算力需求指數級成長，以及Nvidia等大型科技公司主導技術發展、計畫性提升產品規格及應用層面快速拓展，AI發展及科技業成長動能仍未見減速。<br><br>而此亦繼續提供台股企業獲利成長動能綿延不絕的力量。在股市已修正之際，評價已處合理水準，在美、伊戰爭影響漸減後，股市仍將反應基本面正向發展。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"台股短線的波段跌幅為10.9%，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-99.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/07 10:15:01","startTime":"2026-04-07T10:15:01.1100000+08:00","metaTitle":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-07T10:21:00.2230000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/27.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/27.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/27.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=27","url2":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&Fund=27","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1067,"updateTime":"2025-10-27T08:57:53.6330000+08:00","guid":"fc158a45-4a34-4557-90ee-fb2855f16386","fundID":"46","twNameFull":"復華全球消費基金-新臺幣","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa Global Consumer Fund-TWD","ec002":"","twName":"全球消費新臺幣","pnav":"24.32","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"0.16","changeRange":"0.66%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">全球消費市場受惠於新興國家中產階級興起及消費力提升、已開發國家創新型消費崛起，消費力道持續成長，商機龐大。</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">隨景氣循環位置調配必需品及選擇性消費類股比重，以必需品消費類股追求長期盈利增長，以選擇性消費類股於景氣復甦成長時增進獲利。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2013/11/13","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"上海商業儲蓄銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"2.00%","ec013":"0.260%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資股票型","ec020_sort":5084,"ec022":"","ec024":"全球","ec026":"股票型","ec028":"","ec030":"T+4日","ec036":"上海商業儲蓄銀行仁愛分行","ec037":"復華全球消費基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華全球消費基金-新臺幣 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"325811597.000000","roi3m":"2.94%","roi6m":"1.95%","roi1y":"9.47%","roi2y":"17.98%","roi3y":"39.03%","roiLaunch":"103.40%","roiY2D":"2.94%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"張正宇","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":2863,"guid":"68a29fb5-0a67-4598-92c5-da56dd0d3cbb","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨溫和但Fed主席稱股市偏貴，股市高檔整理","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國聯準會(Fed)主席Powell重申關稅一次性推升通膨而就業市場下行風險增加，另稱偏貴股市評價。美國通膨溫和支撐Fed於今(2025)年內陸續降息預期；8月PCE物價年增2.7%、月增0.3%，核心PCE物價年增2.9%、月增0.2%，數據均符合分析師預估；商品價格受關稅影響仍有限。<br><br>台灣8月景氣對策信號分數較前月增加1分至30分，燈號續呈綠燈；8月外銷訂單年增19.5%，政府預估9月外銷訂單仍成長19%至23%間。<br><br>NVIDIA以1,000億美元與OpenAI簽訂合作意向，OpenAI預計藉NVIDIA系統構建10GW數據中心，NVIDIA或創造3,000至5,000億美元潛在收入。<br><strong>個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">重要金融事件摘要</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>美國通膨溫和支撐Fed年內陸續降息預期。8月PCE物價年增2.7%較前月2.6%略增、月增0.3%，核心PCE物價年增2.9%與前月持平、月增0.2%，數據均符合分析師預估；金融、餐飲服務及交通為服務業成本上升主因，商品價格受關稅影響仍有限。<br><br>截至9月20日初領失業救濟金人數降至21.8萬人為7月以來最低。美國第二季GDP年化季增3.8%較原3.3%上修，因消費者支出增速自1.6%上修至2.5%而進口下調。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>Fed主席Powell發言重申關稅一次性推升通膨而就業市場下行風險已增加，雖未暗示10月再度降息但稱利率仍具適度限制性，另稱股市等風險性資產評價偏貴。其他Fed官員發言顯示對降息路徑看法分歧。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>美國採購經理人指數顯示需求降溫，歐元區製造業景氣仍疲弱。美國9月Markit製造業PMI初值自前月53降至52受新訂單分項回落影響，服務業PMI初值自前月54.5降至53.9，就業及物價分項為4月以來新低。<br><br>歐元區9月Markit製造業PMI初值自前月50.7降至49.5重回榮枯分水嶺下，但服務業PMI初值自前月50.5上升至51.4。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/4.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>台灣8月景氣對策信號分數較前月增加1分至30分，燈號續呈綠燈，股價指數及貨幣總計數M1B兩分項改善但製造業銷售量指數下滑。8月外銷訂單年增19.5%高於主計總處先前預估10.5%至14.5%區間，AI/HPC需求持續帶動電子資通訊產品出口。統計處預估9月外銷訂單仍成長19%至23%間，電子產品仍是接單重心、傳產復甦相對緩慢。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/5.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>NVIDIA以1,000億美元與OpenAI簽訂合作意向，OpenAI預計藉NVIDIA系統構建10GW數據中心，NVIDIA或創造3,000至5,000億美元潛在收入。<br><strong>個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong></div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/6.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>中國8月工業利潤年增20.4%較前月年減1.5%大幅改善，受惠低基期且反內卷政策提振上游產業獲利。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/7.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>美國政府正式公告實施美歐貿易協議，對歐盟進口汽車及相關產品課徵15%關稅，藥品、飛機及零組件等得豁免。川普威脅對進口藥品課徵100%關稅，家具及重卡等關稅亦近三成，但白宮隨後澄清此舉不涉及歐日等已達成貿易協議國家。財長Bessent表示欲把近五成先進半導體產能移回美國。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">短期金融市場關注重點</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">市場聚焦美國兩黨預算協商及政府關門與否，另有美國非農就業數據、美中採購經理人指數及日銀短觀等經濟數據公布。<br><br>除了美國總統川普政策及發言備受矚目，Fed及其他國家央行對貨幣政策前瞻也是未來的觀察重點，此外，經濟放緩對應之企業獲利增速修正，最新之本益比評價面變化也是關注焦點(詳見下表)。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">MSCI全球主要國家股市企業獲利成長及預估本益比</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">主要國家股市</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2025年獲利年增率預估(%)</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年獲利年增率預估(%)</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2025年預估本益比</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年預估本益比</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">過去10年本益比區間</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">MSCI全球指數</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+8.0</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+13.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">21.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">18.7</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">12.5~28.0</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">美國S&amp;P 500</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+11.2</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+13.6</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">25.2</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">22.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">14.0~31.4</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">道瓊歐洲600指數</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+0.8</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+12.2</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">15.9</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">14.3</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">10.6~26.0</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">中國上證指數</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+10.6</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+10.0</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">14.9</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">12.8</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">8.0~22.1</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">台灣股市</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+7.7</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+17.6</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">20.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">17.3</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">8.8~22.1</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">MSCI新興市場</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+9.7</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+14.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">15.4</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">13.4</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">9.8~22.0</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：IBES Thomson Reuters，Bloomberg，2025/9/26。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"市場聚焦美國兩黨預算協商及政府關門與否，除了美國總統川普政策及發言備受矚目，Fed及其他國家央行對貨幣政策前瞻也是未來的觀察重點。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202509/view-18.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2025/09/30 10:05:10","startTime":"2025-09-30T10:05:10.5530000+08:00","metaTitle":"美國通膨溫和但Fed主席稱股市偏貴，股市高檔整理｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-10-01T09:26:43.8570000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/68a29fb5-0a67-4598-92c5-da56dd0d3cbb"},{"id":2437,"guid":"b229b88d-fa16-43ca-9024-248988b9cfec","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"Fed降息有助購買力回溫，消費類股有補漲機會","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">近幾年來，消費產業因去化庫存等因素而遭市場調降其股票評價，如今隨著美國聯準會(Fed)進入降息循環，有助於民眾的購買力回溫，包括奢侈品、汽車、家電、服飾、媒體、旅行社及飯店等可選消費類股，將可望有補漲機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">產業類股輪動，不再由科技類股一枝獨秀</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">據統計，2024下半年起，消費類股表現轉佳，在產業類股輪動下，不再由科技類股一枝獨秀，而美國在過去五次降息期間，以互聯網科技/媒體/電信、石油石化、食品飲料、家電、機械設備等類股的表現相對較佳。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">2024年上半年及下半年，標普500各產業類股指數漲跌幅</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202410/20241017-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg、復華投信整理。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">展望消費類股，雖然零售支出仍偏弱，但因低基期及聯準會降息的因素帶動，景氣有機會築底好轉，而消費類的企業營收在第二季落底，股價利空出盡，後續營收及營業利益率皆有望好轉，可選消費類股亦有機會重新展現品牌價值。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">MSCI世界可選消費品指數營收/營利季度成長率(%)</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202410/20241017-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2024/9/3。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">可選消費類股降評後，有機會重新展現品牌價值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202410/20241017-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2024/9/2。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>「本資料僅供參考，不代表投資績效之保證。投資人申購基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不代表基金之績效，基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。」</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"2024下半年起，消費類股表現轉佳，而美國在過去五次降息期間，以互聯網、石油石化、食品飲料、家電、機械設備等類股表現相對較好。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202410/view-12.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,全球,消費","postTime":"2024/10/17 15:10:48","startTime":"2024-10-17T15:10:48.0700000+08:00","metaTitle":"Fed降息有助購買力回溫，消費類股有補漲機會｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2024-10-21T09:05:50.5570000+08:00","files":"/UploadFile/Article.file/202410/a0c626d0-64ad-484a-b25e-21fc4a794b3820241017.pdf","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/b229b88d-fa16-43ca-9024-248988b9cfec"}],"news01":[{"id":2863,"guid":"68a29fb5-0a67-4598-92c5-da56dd0d3cbb","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨溫和但Fed主席稱股市偏貴，股市高檔整理","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國聯準會(Fed)主席Powell重申關稅一次性推升通膨而就業市場下行風險增加，另稱偏貴股市評價。美國通膨溫和支撐Fed於今(2025)年內陸續降息預期；8月PCE物價年增2.7%、月增0.3%，核心PCE物價年增2.9%、月增0.2%，數據均符合分析師預估；商品價格受關稅影響仍有限。<br><br>台灣8月景氣對策信號分數較前月增加1分至30分，燈號續呈綠燈；8月外銷訂單年增19.5%，政府預估9月外銷訂單仍成長19%至23%間。<br><br>NVIDIA以1,000億美元與OpenAI簽訂合作意向，OpenAI預計藉NVIDIA系統構建10GW數據中心，NVIDIA或創造3,000至5,000億美元潛在收入。<br><strong>個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">重要金融事件摘要</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>美國通膨溫和支撐Fed年內陸續降息預期。8月PCE物價年增2.7%較前月2.6%略增、月增0.3%，核心PCE物價年增2.9%與前月持平、月增0.2%，數據均符合分析師預估；金融、餐飲服務及交通為服務業成本上升主因，商品價格受關稅影響仍有限。<br><br>截至9月20日初領失業救濟金人數降至21.8萬人為7月以來最低。美國第二季GDP年化季增3.8%較原3.3%上修，因消費者支出增速自1.6%上修至2.5%而進口下調。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>Fed主席Powell發言重申關稅一次性推升通膨而就業市場下行風險已增加，雖未暗示10月再度降息但稱利率仍具適度限制性，另稱股市等風險性資產評價偏貴。其他Fed官員發言顯示對降息路徑看法分歧。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>美國採購經理人指數顯示需求降溫，歐元區製造業景氣仍疲弱。美國9月Markit製造業PMI初值自前月53降至52受新訂單分項回落影響，服務業PMI初值自前月54.5降至53.9，就業及物價分項為4月以來新低。<br><br>歐元區9月Markit製造業PMI初值自前月50.7降至49.5重回榮枯分水嶺下，但服務業PMI初值自前月50.5上升至51.4。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/4.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>台灣8月景氣對策信號分數較前月增加1分至30分，燈號續呈綠燈，股價指數及貨幣總計數M1B兩分項改善但製造業銷售量指數下滑。8月外銷訂單年增19.5%高於主計總處先前預估10.5%至14.5%區間，AI/HPC需求持續帶動電子資通訊產品出口。統計處預估9月外銷訂單仍成長19%至23%間，電子產品仍是接單重心、傳產復甦相對緩慢。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/5.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>NVIDIA以1,000億美元與OpenAI簽訂合作意向，OpenAI預計藉NVIDIA系統構建10GW數據中心，NVIDIA或創造3,000至5,000億美元潛在收入。<br><strong>個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong></div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/6.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>中國8月工業利潤年增20.4%較前月年減1.5%大幅改善，受惠低基期且反內卷政策提振上游產業獲利。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/7.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>美國政府正式公告實施美歐貿易協議，對歐盟進口汽車及相關產品課徵15%關稅，藥品、飛機及零組件等得豁免。川普威脅對進口藥品課徵100%關稅，家具及重卡等關稅亦近三成，但白宮隨後澄清此舉不涉及歐日等已達成貿易協議國家。財長Bessent表示欲把近五成先進半導體產能移回美國。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">短期金融市場關注重點</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">市場聚焦美國兩黨預算協商及政府關門與否，另有美國非農就業數據、美中採購經理人指數及日銀短觀等經濟數據公布。<br><br>除了美國總統川普政策及發言備受矚目，Fed及其他國家央行對貨幣政策前瞻也是未來的觀察重點，此外，經濟放緩對應之企業獲利增速修正，最新之本益比評價面變化也是關注焦點(詳見下表)。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">MSCI全球主要國家股市企業獲利成長及預估本益比</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">主要國家股市</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2025年獲利年增率預估(%)</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年獲利年增率預估(%)</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2025年預估本益比</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年預估本益比</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">過去10年本益比區間</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">MSCI全球指數</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+8.0</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+13.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">21.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">18.7</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">12.5~28.0</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">美國S&amp;P 500</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+11.2</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+13.6</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">25.2</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">22.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">14.0~31.4</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">道瓊歐洲600指數</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+0.8</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+12.2</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">15.9</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">14.3</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">10.6~26.0</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">中國上證指數</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+10.6</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+10.0</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">14.9</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">12.8</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">8.0~22.1</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">台灣股市</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+7.7</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+17.6</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">20.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">17.3</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">8.8~22.1</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">MSCI新興市場</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+9.7</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">+14.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">15.4</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">13.4</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">9.8~22.0</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：IBES Thomson Reuters，Bloomberg，2025/9/26。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"市場聚焦美國兩黨預算協商及政府關門與否，除了美國總統川普政策及發言備受矚目，Fed及其他國家央行對貨幣政策前瞻也是未來的觀察重點。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202509/view-18.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2025/09/30 10:05:10","startTime":"2025-09-30T10:05:10.5530000+08:00","metaTitle":"美國通膨溫和但Fed主席稱股市偏貴，股市高檔整理｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-10-01T09:26:43.8570000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/68a29fb5-0a67-4598-92c5-da56dd0d3cbb"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/46.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/46.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/46.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=46","url2":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&Fund=46","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":8,"updateTime":"2025-08-04T09:04:35.7100000+08:00","guid":"4989d40a-1079-41c9-832a-7c984d336fe9","fundID":"18","twNameFull":"復華亞太成長基金","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa Asia Pacific Equity Fund","ec002":"","twName":"亞太成長","pnav":"42.51","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"-0.25","changeRange":"-0.58%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">投資範圍以亞太地區為主，以受惠亞太地區連動成長的區域為輔，完整掌握亞太成長題材。</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">深入研究亞太供應鏈，從中尋找具競爭力、趨勢正向的產業，及受惠亞太成長題材之價值成長股。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2007/01/22","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"永豐商業銀行","ec009":"RR5","ec012":"2.00%","ec013":"0.260%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資股票型","ec020_sort":5084,"ec022":"","ec024":"亞太地區","ec026":"股票型","ec027":"","ec028":"","ec029":"","ec030":"T+4日","ec033":"","ec034":"","ec036":"永豐商業銀行世貿分行","ec037":"復華亞太成長基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec040":"0","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":1,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","renameArticle":"","metaTitle":"復華亞太成長基金 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","prepayRate":"          ","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"3027877905.000000","roi3m":"25.35%","roi6m":"43.12%","roi1y":"83.37%","roi2y":"64.90%","roi3y":"93.65%","roiLaunch":"211.00%","roiY2D":"25.35%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"林光佑","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[{"name":"黃俊瑞","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"news":[{"id":3067,"guid":"6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 08:54:53","startTime":"2026-04-23T08:54:49.4100000+08:00","metaTitle":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-23T08:58:43.1630000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63"},{"id":3053,"guid":"af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美、伊表態結束戰爭意願，FED升息預期暫消退，股市觸底反彈</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市在美、伊戰爭預期可能將結束，伊朗總統亦表示願意結束戰爭，雖然川普演說表示將繼續攻擊伊朗，直至與伊朗達成協議、油價繼續彈升，但伊朗開始放寬通行荷莫茲海峽條件，使已因美伊戰爭修正近一個月的股市風險情緒好轉，美股波段下跌10%左右後出現反彈。<br><br>台股在週一及週二強勢股補跌後，搭配美、伊戰爭可望近尾聲預期，以及週二台股融資餘額劇減百億台幣以上，週三台股亦現大幅反彈。<br><br>而美國聯準會(FED)主席Powell暗示，短期不會因油價大漲改變貨幣政策立場，使升息預期減弱，美國公債殖利率回落，亦降低了抑制股市的力量。<br><br>總計<strong>一週（2026/3/30-4/3）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲1.7%、3.0%、4.1%、5.0%，台股下跌1.6%以32572點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑9個bps至4.35%，美元指數持平於100.18，<u>油價(WTI)再漲11.9%至每桶111.54美元</u>，黃金價格反彈3.4%至每盎司4679.70美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">股市風險情緒好轉觸底反彈，戰爭延續時間及油價走勢，仍為關注焦點</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美伊戰爭造成股市下跌，主要即來自於伊朗封鎖荷莫茲海峽造成油價大漲，引發通膨及各國央行可能升息擔憂。在美、伊皆有結束戰爭的意願，以及荷莫茲海峽船隻通行數開始上升下，股市風險情緒獲得改善。<br><br>不過，短期<u>油價仍因為戰火未停歇持續走高</u>，美伊戰爭是否能如川普所言於二至三週內結束，以及荷莫茲海峽的封鎖情況，攸關油價及未來通膨發展及後續對經濟的影響。<br><br>而上週FED主席<u>Powell亦表示不會因短期油價大漲調整貨幣政策</u>，原本投資人對FED升息預期機率上升的狀況改變，FED繼續維持利率政策不變的預期回升（年底前利率維持不變的機率為69.5%，2026/4/3），使公債殖利率回落，亦助股市評價提升。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國消費及就業穩定，經濟維持擴張，股市已達合理修正幅度</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">過去在經濟未衰退狀況下，重大事件造成美股合理修正幅度者在10~20%間。而<u>此次美股主要指數最大修正幅度已達9.8%至16.6%</u>(見下表)。<br><br>而美國經濟仍保持穩定，2月核心零售銷售月增0.5%優於預期；非農就業新增人數17.8萬人（預期6.5萬人）、失業率降至4.3 %亦明顯優於預期。美國消費動能及就業市場保持穩定，經濟仍維持擴張狀態。<br><br><u>台股在上週三大幅反彈前亦已回檔10.9%</u>，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線(32,328點)附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">因美伊戰爭造成美、台股波段跌幅</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">主要指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">道瓊指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">S&amp;P 500</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">Nasdaq</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">費城半導體</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">台股</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段高點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">50512</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7002</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">23988</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">8498</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">35579</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段低點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">45057</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">6317</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">20690</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7084</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">31705</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">跌幅</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-9.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-13.70%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-16.60%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.90%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：計算自速霸贏家，2026/4。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI進入推論階段，基礎設施及關鍵零組件需求持續爆發，基本面仍正向發展</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2006年AI發展雖已步入第四年，但因新的AI龐大潛在市場出現，AI使用人數及滲透率快速上升，科技相關基礎設施架構全面改變，加上算力需求指數級成長，以及Nvidia等大型科技公司主導技術發展、計畫性提升產品規格及應用層面快速拓展，AI發展及科技業成長動能仍未見減速。<br><br>而此亦繼續提供台股企業獲利成長動能綿延不絕的力量。在股市已修正之際，評價已處合理水準，在美、伊戰爭影響漸減後，股市仍將反應基本面正向發展。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"台股短線的波段跌幅為10.9%，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-99.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/07 10:15:01","startTime":"2026-04-07T10:15:01.1100000+08:00","metaTitle":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-07T10:21:00.2230000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c"}],"news01":[{"id":3067,"guid":"6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 08:54:53","startTime":"2026-04-23T08:54:49.4100000+08:00","metaTitle":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-23T08:58:43.1630000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/18.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/18.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=18","url2":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&Fund=18","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1076,"updateTime":"2024-04-01T15:15:21.4430000+08:00","guid":"071e69c9-ad31-4759-b8e2-59318fb65744","fundID":"83","twNameFull":"復華亞太神龍科技基金-美元","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa Asia Pacific Tech Equity Fund-USD","ec002":"","twName":"亞太神龍科技美元","pnav":"41.16","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"-0.31","changeRange":"-0.75%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">聚焦於新科技趨勢蓬勃崛起之亞太地區，發掘創新能力佳、能引領科技趨勢的巨擘。</li><li 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mb-5\"><div class=\"detail-list flex flex-wrap flex-nowrap-md mb-5\"><div class=\"detail-list-title flex align-items-start mr-1\"><img class=\"mt-1 mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/ribbon-star.svg\"> <span class=\"text-9-bold\">AI趨勢多點開花：</span></div><p class=\"detail-list-info text-9-regular\">預期AI是10年以上的大趨勢，生態系的形成，使投資機會多點開花，從亞太供應鏈發掘更多投資主題，以掌握具關鍵技術與產品的好公司！</p></div><div class=\"detail-list flex flex-wrap flex-nowrap-md mb-5\"><div class=\"detail-list-title flex align-items-start mr-1\"><img class=\"mt-1 mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/ribbon-star.svg\"> <span class=\"text-9-bold\">美日台金三角：</span></div><p class=\"detail-list-info text-9-regular\">①美國、②日本、③台灣各擁領導地位及關鍵優勢，並且緊密合作；尤其中美對抗造成的供應鏈移轉，第一島鏈不會只是短期受惠。</p></div><div class=\"detail-list flex flex-wrap flex-nowrap-md mb-5\"><div class=\"detail-list-title flex align-items-start mr-1\"><img class=\"mt-1 mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/ribbon-star.svg\"> <span class=\"text-9-bold\">掌握3大旋律：</span></div><p class=\"detail-list-info text-9-regular\">持續擁抱AI大趨勢的主旋律，搭配電力相關、軍工的次旋律，並兼顧低基期的循環性產業等新旋律。</p></div></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>投資科技類股可能受科技產業前景及評價變化的影響較大。投資人申購本基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表本基金之績效，本基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>註1：Artificial Intelligence（人工智慧），簡稱AI。註2：第一島鏈為西太平洋一系列島嶼的統稱，泛指從日本、台灣、菲律賓至印尼的鏈型島嶼帶，為美國外交國防政策中的防線。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">科技浪潮一波接一波，支持股市維持多頭</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">AI科技創新不間斷</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">每一個科技世代，長達10~20年，新科技帶來的產值也越來越高，AI是長期趨勢，目前還在發展初期，也有更多產業迎來復甦機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202411/20241113-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>圖片取自各公司網站。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">美國開始降息，企業獲利持續成長</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國聯準會已展開降息循環，有助於企業重啟投資活動，美國經濟體質良好，整體經濟可望走向軟著陸或不著陸，預期2025年企業獲利延續成長趨勢，亦可支持股市評價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">亞太科技強國在科技新浪潮之下扮演要角</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">美國-創新</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">產業生態、商業模式及科技產品的創新者；關鍵晶片與軟體平台的提供者；電動車設計與製造、娛樂內容及平台、人工智慧的全球領導者。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">日本-技術</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在科技產業中，不斷的重整與重生，重新成為高端關鍵零組件、設備與材料的首選提供商，例如工業自動化機器人、半導體上游產業。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">台灣-製造</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">科技新浪潮中，能迅速因應客戶需求提供多元的產品服務，創造新的系統整合價值，並提供關鍵電子零件，以及晶圓代工、網通等完整供應鏈。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">掌握科技趨勢的3大投資旋律</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">主旋律：持續擁抱AI大趨勢</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">AI生態系的建置，衍生眾多投資機會，包括基礎建置到終端應用，以及硬體/軟體到系統整合多點開花，尤其美國的創新力引領AI革命，相關供應鏈則提供強力後援。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202411/20241113-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">次旋律：電力相關、軍工</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">重電、綠能、節能，至少是5~10年的成長主題，AI資料中心大量建置，高速運算與傳輸的耗電量大，電力需求攀升，而且美國、日本等已開發國家的電網設備老舊，未來將大量汰舊換新。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202411/daae3891-a14e-4106-9c62-29b68788a84f20241113-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">此外，地緣政治議題，讓軍工產業谷底翻身；例如日本國防預算從2019~2023財年的17.2兆日圓，增加1.5倍，至2023~2027財年*的43.5兆日圓，為僅次於美國和中國的第三大國防支出國家。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">而日本鬆綁軍工產品的代工及出口限制，增加海外銷售，為國內軍工業如三菱重工、川崎重工、IHI，帶來新商機。</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>*財年係指日本會計年度，即當年4月1日至次年3月31日。原定五年計畫為2019~2023財年，但於2022年底提前終止，自2023財年進入新的五年計畫。資料來源：日本防衛省。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">新旋律：低基期的循環性產業等</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">工業產品庫存去化至尾聲，迎來復甦機會，以日本為例，其工業技術領先，握有機器人核心零組件與製造能力，如今隨著庫存已去化、降息後有助景氣好轉，工業自動化趨勢與AI導入，更將推升機器人需求。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202411/20241113-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>資料來源：日本財務省，截至2024年8月。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"掌握AI科技趨勢的3大投資旋律①持續擁抱AI大趨勢的主旋律，②搭配電力相關、軍工的次旋律，③兼顧低基期的循環性產業等新旋律。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202411/view-100.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,科技","postTime":"2025/02/01 00:00:00","startTime":"2025-02-01T00:00:00.0000000+08:00","metaTitle":"AI新浪潮來了，亞太3大科技強國全都要｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-02-05T16:44:00.5130000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"8c2a02e2-f52a-46ea-a71f-b90e4ae0985e","category":{"id":21010,"guid":"8c2a02e2-f52a-46ea-a71f-b90e4ae0985e","name":"首頁推薦基金文章","parentGuid":"","route":"/insights_list/article_list/recommend_content?page=1","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/recommend_content/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"","isEnabled":1,"show":0,"showm":0,"description":"","metaTitle":"","metaDescription":"","metaKeyword":"","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/ea975eaf-ace7-4d37-b0e2-22ee851cc211G.logo.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12317,"guid":"e12e95d7-9076-4c93-a599-74a24cdaf632","name":"首頁推薦基金文章","parentGuid":"","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/recommend_content/fc887d0e-cda2-4822-878e-bd90c03c24db"},{"id":2449,"guid":"fc887d0e-cda2-4822-878e-bd90c03c24db","articleCategory":"首頁推薦基金文章","title":"AI新浪潮來了，亞太3大科技強國全都要！","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"foreword-1 py-md-7 px-md-12 py-sm-5 px-sm-3\"><div class=\"title mb-5 flex flex-column align-items-center\"><div><img class=\"title-deco\" src=\"/assets/editor/foreword1-title-deco.svg\"></div><div class=\"title-text color-brown-500 text-7-bold\">【美日台投資金三角】</div></div><div class=\"detail mb-5\"><div class=\"detail-list flex flex-wrap flex-nowrap-md mb-5\"><div class=\"detail-list-title flex align-items-start mr-1\"><img class=\"mt-1 mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/ribbon-star.svg\"> <span class=\"text-9-bold\">AI趨勢多點開花：</span></div><p class=\"detail-list-info text-9-regular\">預期AI是10年以上的大趨勢，生態系的形成，使投資機會多點開花，從亞太供應鏈發掘更多投資主題，以掌握具關鍵技術與產品的好公司！</p></div><div class=\"detail-list flex flex-wrap flex-nowrap-md mb-5\"><div class=\"detail-list-title flex align-items-start mr-1\"><img class=\"mt-1 mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/ribbon-star.svg\"> <span class=\"text-9-bold\">美日台金三角：</span></div><p class=\"detail-list-info text-9-regular\">①美國、②日本、③台灣各擁領導地位及關鍵優勢，並且緊密合作；尤其中美對抗造成的供應鏈移轉，第一島鏈不會只是短期受惠。</p></div><div class=\"detail-list flex flex-wrap flex-nowrap-md mb-5\"><div class=\"detail-list-title flex align-items-start mr-1\"><img class=\"mt-1 mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/ribbon-star.svg\"> <span class=\"text-9-bold\">掌握3大旋律：</span></div><p class=\"detail-list-info text-9-regular\">持續擁抱AI大趨勢的主旋律，搭配電力相關、軍工的次旋律，並兼顧低基期的循環性產業等新旋律。</p></div></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>投資科技類股可能受科技產業前景及評價變化的影響較大。投資人申購本基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表本基金之績效，本基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>註1：Artificial Intelligence（人工智慧），簡稱AI。註2：第一島鏈為西太平洋一系列島嶼的統稱，泛指從日本、台灣、菲律賓至印尼的鏈型島嶼帶，為美國外交國防政策中的防線。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">科技浪潮一波接一波，支持股市維持多頭</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">AI科技創新不間斷</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">每一個科技世代，長達10~20年，新科技帶來的產值也越來越高，AI是長期趨勢，目前還在發展初期，也有更多產業迎來復甦機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202411/20241113-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>圖片取自各公司網站。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">美國開始降息，企業獲利持續成長</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國聯準會已展開降息循環，有助於企業重啟投資活動，美國經濟體質良好，整體經濟可望走向軟著陸或不著陸，預期2025年企業獲利延續成長趨勢，亦可支持股市評價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">亞太科技強國在科技新浪潮之下扮演要角</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">美國-創新</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">產業生態、商業模式及科技產品的創新者；關鍵晶片與軟體平台的提供者；電動車設計與製造、娛樂內容及平台、人工智慧的全球領導者。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">日本-技術</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在科技產業中，不斷的重整與重生，重新成為高端關鍵零組件、設備與材料的首選提供商，例如工業自動化機器人、半導體上游產業。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">台灣-製造</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">科技新浪潮中，能迅速因應客戶需求提供多元的產品服務，創造新的系統整合價值，並提供關鍵電子零件，以及晶圓代工、網通等完整供應鏈。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">掌握科技趨勢的3大投資旋律</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">主旋律：持續擁抱AI大趨勢</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">AI生態系的建置，衍生眾多投資機會，包括基礎建置到終端應用，以及硬體/軟體到系統整合多點開花，尤其美國的創新力引領AI革命，相關供應鏈則提供強力後援。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202411/20241113-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">次旋律：電力相關、軍工</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">重電、綠能、節能，至少是5~10年的成長主題，AI資料中心大量建置，高速運算與傳輸的耗電量大，電力需求攀升，而且美國、日本等已開發國家的電網設備老舊，未來將大量汰舊換新。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202411/daae3891-a14e-4106-9c62-29b68788a84f20241113-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">此外，地緣政治議題，讓軍工產業谷底翻身；例如日本國防預算從2019~2023財年的17.2兆日圓，增加1.5倍，至2023~2027財年*的43.5兆日圓，為僅次於美國和中國的第三大國防支出國家。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">而日本鬆綁軍工產品的代工及出口限制，增加海外銷售，為國內軍工業如三菱重工、川崎重工、IHI，帶來新商機。</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>*財年係指日本會計年度，即當年4月1日至次年3月31日。原定五年計畫為2019~2023財年，但於2022年底提前終止，自2023財年進入新的五年計畫。資料來源：日本防衛省。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">新旋律：低基期的循環性產業等</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">工業產品庫存去化至尾聲，迎來復甦機會，以日本為例，其工業技術領先，握有機器人核心零組件與製造能力，如今隨著庫存已去化、降息後有助景氣好轉，工業自動化趨勢與AI導入，更將推升機器人需求。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202411/20241113-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>資料來源：日本財務省，截至2024年8月。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"掌握AI科技趨勢的3大投資旋律①持續擁抱AI大趨勢的主旋律，②搭配電力相關、軍工的次旋律，③兼顧低基期的循環性產業等新旋律。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202411/view-100.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,科技","postTime":"2025/02/01 00:00:00","startTime":"2025-02-01T00:00:00.0000000+08:00","metaTitle":"AI新浪潮來了，亞太3大科技強國全都要｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-02-05T16:44:00.5130000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12317,"guid":"e12e95d7-9076-4c93-a599-74a24cdaf632","name":"首頁推薦基金文章","parentGuid":"","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/fc887d0e-cda2-4822-878e-bd90c03c24db"}],"news01":[{"id":2449,"guid":"fc887d0e-cda2-4822-878e-bd90c03c24db","articleCategory":"首頁推薦基金文章","title":"AI新浪潮來了，亞太3大科技強國全都要！","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"foreword-1 py-md-7 px-md-12 py-sm-5 px-sm-3\"><div class=\"title mb-5 flex flex-column align-items-center\"><div><img class=\"title-deco\" src=\"/assets/editor/foreword1-title-deco.svg\"></div><div class=\"title-text color-brown-500 text-7-bold\">【美日台投資金三角】</div></div><div class=\"detail mb-5\"><div class=\"detail-list flex flex-wrap flex-nowrap-md mb-5\"><div class=\"detail-list-title flex align-items-start mr-1\"><img class=\"mt-1 mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/ribbon-star.svg\"> <span class=\"text-9-bold\">AI趨勢多點開花：</span></div><p class=\"detail-list-info text-9-regular\">預期AI是10年以上的大趨勢，生態系的形成，使投資機會多點開花，從亞太供應鏈發掘更多投資主題，以掌握具關鍵技術與產品的好公司！</p></div><div class=\"detail-list flex flex-wrap flex-nowrap-md mb-5\"><div class=\"detail-list-title flex align-items-start mr-1\"><img class=\"mt-1 mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/ribbon-star.svg\"> <span class=\"text-9-bold\">美日台金三角：</span></div><p class=\"detail-list-info text-9-regular\">①美國、②日本、③台灣各擁領導地位及關鍵優勢，並且緊密合作；尤其中美對抗造成的供應鏈移轉，第一島鏈不會只是短期受惠。</p></div><div class=\"detail-list flex flex-wrap flex-nowrap-md mb-5\"><div class=\"detail-list-title flex align-items-start mr-1\"><img class=\"mt-1 mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/ribbon-star.svg\"> <span class=\"text-9-bold\">掌握3大旋律：</span></div><p class=\"detail-list-info text-9-regular\">持續擁抱AI大趨勢的主旋律，搭配電力相關、軍工的次旋律，並兼顧低基期的循環性產業等新旋律。</p></div></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>投資科技類股可能受科技產業前景及評價變化的影響較大。投資人申購本基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表本基金之績效，本基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>註1：Artificial Intelligence（人工智慧），簡稱AI。註2：第一島鏈為西太平洋一系列島嶼的統稱，泛指從日本、台灣、菲律賓至印尼的鏈型島嶼帶，為美國外交國防政策中的防線。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">科技浪潮一波接一波，支持股市維持多頭</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">AI科技創新不間斷</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">每一個科技世代，長達10~20年，新科技帶來的產值也越來越高，AI是長期趨勢，目前還在發展初期，也有更多產業迎來復甦機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202411/20241113-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>圖片取自各公司網站。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">美國開始降息，企業獲利持續成長</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國聯準會已展開降息循環，有助於企業重啟投資活動，美國經濟體質良好，整體經濟可望走向軟著陸或不著陸，預期2025年企業獲利延續成長趨勢，亦可支持股市評價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">亞太科技強國在科技新浪潮之下扮演要角</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">美國-創新</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">產業生態、商業模式及科技產品的創新者；關鍵晶片與軟體平台的提供者；電動車設計與製造、娛樂內容及平台、人工智慧的全球領導者。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">日本-技術</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在科技產業中，不斷的重整與重生，重新成為高端關鍵零組件、設備與材料的首選提供商，例如工業自動化機器人、半導體上游產業。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">台灣-製造</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">科技新浪潮中，能迅速因應客戶需求提供多元的產品服務，創造新的系統整合價值，並提供關鍵電子零件，以及晶圓代工、網通等完整供應鏈。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">掌握科技趨勢的3大投資旋律</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">主旋律：持續擁抱AI大趨勢</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">AI生態系的建置，衍生眾多投資機會，包括基礎建置到終端應用，以及硬體/軟體到系統整合多點開花，尤其美國的創新力引領AI革命，相關供應鏈則提供強力後援。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202411/20241113-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">次旋律：電力相關、軍工</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">重電、綠能、節能，至少是5~10年的成長主題，AI資料中心大量建置，高速運算與傳輸的耗電量大，電力需求攀升，而且美國、日本等已開發國家的電網設備老舊，未來將大量汰舊換新。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202411/daae3891-a14e-4106-9c62-29b68788a84f20241113-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">此外，地緣政治議題，讓軍工產業谷底翻身；例如日本國防預算從2019~2023財年的17.2兆日圓，增加1.5倍，至2023~2027財年*的43.5兆日圓，為僅次於美國和中國的第三大國防支出國家。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">而日本鬆綁軍工產品的代工及出口限制，增加海外銷售，為國內軍工業如三菱重工、川崎重工、IHI，帶來新商機。</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>*財年係指日本會計年度，即當年4月1日至次年3月31日。原定五年計畫為2019~2023財年，但於2022年底提前終止，自2023財年進入新的五年計畫。資料來源：日本防衛省。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">新旋律：低基期的循環性產業等</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">工業產品庫存去化至尾聲，迎來復甦機會，以日本為例，其工業技術領先，握有機器人核心零組件與製造能力，如今隨著庫存已去化、降息後有助景氣好轉，工業自動化趨勢與AI導入，更將推升機器人需求。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202411/20241113-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>資料來源：日本財務省，截至2024年8月。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"掌握AI科技趨勢的3大投資旋律①持續擁抱AI大趨勢的主旋律，②搭配電力相關、軍工的次旋律，③兼顧低基期的循環性產業等新旋律。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202411/view-100.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,科技","postTime":"2025/02/01 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復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"定時定額0％手續費","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"9457636761.000000","roi3m":"11.06%","roi6m":"30.56%","roi1y":"82.62%","roi2y":"76.43%","roi3y":"144.91%","roiLaunch":"217.40%","roiY2D":"11.06%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"1","value02":"1","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"王萬里","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":3053,"guid":"af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美、伊表態結束戰爭意願，FED升息預期暫消退，股市觸底反彈</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市在美、伊戰爭預期可能將結束，伊朗總統亦表示願意結束戰爭，雖然川普演說表示將繼續攻擊伊朗，直至與伊朗達成協議、油價繼續彈升，但伊朗開始放寬通行荷莫茲海峽條件，使已因美伊戰爭修正近一個月的股市風險情緒好轉，美股波段下跌10%左右後出現反彈。<br><br>台股在週一及週二強勢股補跌後，搭配美、伊戰爭可望近尾聲預期，以及週二台股融資餘額劇減百億台幣以上，週三台股亦現大幅反彈。<br><br>而美國聯準會(FED)主席Powell暗示，短期不會因油價大漲改變貨幣政策立場，使升息預期減弱，美國公債殖利率回落，亦降低了抑制股市的力量。<br><br>總計<strong>一週（2026/3/30-4/3）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲1.7%、3.0%、4.1%、5.0%，台股下跌1.6%以32572點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑9個bps至4.35%，美元指數持平於100.18，<u>油價(WTI)再漲11.9%至每桶111.54美元</u>，黃金價格反彈3.4%至每盎司4679.70美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">股市風險情緒好轉觸底反彈，戰爭延續時間及油價走勢，仍為關注焦點</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美伊戰爭造成股市下跌，主要即來自於伊朗封鎖荷莫茲海峽造成油價大漲，引發通膨及各國央行可能升息擔憂。在美、伊皆有結束戰爭的意願，以及荷莫茲海峽船隻通行數開始上升下，股市風險情緒獲得改善。<br><br>不過，短期<u>油價仍因為戰火未停歇持續走高</u>，美伊戰爭是否能如川普所言於二至三週內結束，以及荷莫茲海峽的封鎖情況，攸關油價及未來通膨發展及後續對經濟的影響。<br><br>而上週FED主席<u>Powell亦表示不會因短期油價大漲調整貨幣政策</u>，原本投資人對FED升息預期機率上升的狀況改變，FED繼續維持利率政策不變的預期回升（年底前利率維持不變的機率為69.5%，2026/4/3），使公債殖利率回落，亦助股市評價提升。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國消費及就業穩定，經濟維持擴張，股市已達合理修正幅度</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">過去在經濟未衰退狀況下，重大事件造成美股合理修正幅度者在10~20%間。而<u>此次美股主要指數最大修正幅度已達9.8%至16.6%</u>(見下表)。<br><br>而美國經濟仍保持穩定，2月核心零售銷售月增0.5%優於預期；非農就業新增人數17.8萬人（預期6.5萬人）、失業率降至4.3 %亦明顯優於預期。美國消費動能及就業市場保持穩定，經濟仍維持擴張狀態。<br><br><u>台股在上週三大幅反彈前亦已回檔10.9%</u>，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線(32,328點)附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">因美伊戰爭造成美、台股波段跌幅</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">主要指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">道瓊指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">S&amp;P 500</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">Nasdaq</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">費城半導體</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">台股</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段高點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">50512</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7002</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">23988</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">8498</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">35579</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段低點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">45057</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">6317</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">20690</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7084</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">31705</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">跌幅</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-9.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-13.70%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-16.60%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.90%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：計算自速霸贏家，2026/4。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI進入推論階段，基礎設施及關鍵零組件需求持續爆發，基本面仍正向發展</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2006年AI發展雖已步入第四年，但因新的AI龐大潛在市場出現，AI使用人數及滲透率快速上升，科技相關基礎設施架構全面改變，加上算力需求指數級成長，以及Nvidia等大型科技公司主導技術發展、計畫性提升產品規格及應用層面快速拓展，AI發展及科技業成長動能仍未見減速。<br><br>而此亦繼續提供台股企業獲利成長動能綿延不絕的力量。在股市已修正之際，評價已處合理水準，在美、伊戰爭影響漸減後，股市仍將反應基本面正向發展。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"台股短線的波段跌幅為10.9%，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-99.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/07 10:15:01","startTime":"2026-04-07T10:15:01.1100000+08:00","metaTitle":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-07T10:21:00.2230000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c"},{"id":3052,"guid":"ff93bf7d-0584-41bc-b83f-f11937d40bc5","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"2026年初軟體股為何重挫？AI加速發展下的產業變局與投資機會","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2026年初，美國軟體股經歷了被市場稱為「軟體末日」（Software-mageddon）的劇烈震盪，Anthropic於年初陸續推出Claude相關模型與工具，升高市場對AI可能改寫既有軟體服務商業模式的疑慮，S&amp;P軟體與服務指數在短短兩個月內下跌約 21%、市值大幅蒸發；與此同時，美國科技巨頭亦因鉅額資本支出的投資報酬率前景不明而承壓，受此影響，S&amp;P 500指數整體表現相對受限。&nbsp;<br><br>然而，在軟體股哀鴻遍野之際，硬體、能源與公用事業卻逆勢走強（圖一）。這顯示AI熱潮並非消退，而是隨著產業發展進入新階段，相關類股表現已出現更明顯分化。&nbsp;<br><br>本文將先從AI發展現況切入，說明為何AI主線並未改變，再進一步探討AI加速落地下，哪些產業環節較可能受惠、哪些類型則需審慎看待。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖一：2026年以來（截至2026/2/27），美股大盤、美股七巨頭、硬體、軟體、公用事業、原物料、能源類股累積報酬率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260401-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。&nbsp;</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/2/27。&nbsp;<br>註：美股大盤採標普500指數、美股七巨頭採彭博美國七大科技巨頭指數（含Microsoft、Amazon、Nvidia、Alphabet、Tesla、Meta、Apple）、硬體類股採費城半導體指數、軟體類股採標普500軟體與服務指數、公用事業類股採標普500公用事業指數、原物料類股採標普500原物料指數、能源類股採標普500能源類指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI發展的現況與關鍵挑戰</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">從當前產業發展來看，AI熱潮並未消退，而是進入需求持續擴張、成本快速下降，且瓶頸逐步轉向基礎設施的新階段，主要可從以下三個面向觀察：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">算力投資規模持續擴大</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">儘管軟體股估值修正，但基礎設施投入未減。預估至2027財年，美國四大雲端服務供應商（CSP）的資本支出合計將突破 6,700億美元（圖二），這為硬體供應鏈提供了支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">單位成本崩跌，AI模型應用門檻降低</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">AI使用成本正以指數級速度下降。相較於2023年GPT-4的綜合使用成本*約為每百萬Token 37.5美元，目前的GPT-5 mini與Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite成本已降至每百萬Token 0.6美元左右，跌幅超過95%。這雖有利於AI普及，卻也侵蝕了缺乏護城河的單一功能軟體之定價能力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">從「算力荒」到「能源荒」</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">AI的瓶頸正由晶片供給轉向電力與電力基礎設施。國際能源署（International Energy Agency, IEA）預估全球資料中心用電量未來五年年複合成長率將達14%（圖三）。電力供給與變壓器等硬體建設週期長、供給剛性強，已成為制約AI擴張的關鍵節點。</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">*綜合成本是根據各AI模型官方公布之輸入（提問）與輸出（回答）Token定價，並以市場研究常用之假設（輸入佔75%、輸出佔25%），進行加權估算而成。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖二：美國四大CSP企業資本支出</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260401-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/11。註1：2026~2027年為Bloomberg預估。註2：年度係採用各企業之財年。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖三：全球AI資料中心用電量</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260401-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：國際能源署（International Energy Agency, IEA），2025/4。&nbsp;<br>註1：2025~2030年為IEA估計值。註2：太瓦時（Terawatt-hour, TWh）為衡量能量的單位，1太瓦時=10億度電。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI加速滲透，帶動產業重塑與獲利重分配</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">進一步從產業環節觀察，AI帶來的影響並不一致，不同商業模式與供應鏈位置，未來所面臨的機會與壓力將明顯分化（表一）。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">標準化流程型業務，較可能面臨獲利壓力</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">若企業的獲利模式主要建立在標準化、可重複的流程處理上，未來較可能面臨AI加速滲透所帶來的效率壓力。這類業務未必會被完全取代，但其營運模式預期將由大量人工執行，逐步轉向「AI自動化處理、人工決策覆核」的新架構。&nbsp;<br><br>例如客服、內容製作、基礎程式開發與財務對帳等流程型服務，未來都可能朝此方向調整；若企業無法及時完成轉型，獲利空間與評價均可能承受壓力。這也是今年以來軟體股表現疲弱的重要背景之一：市場擔心的不只是短期成長放緩，更是部分軟體與服務型業務原有的差異化與定價能力，可能在AI普及後受到侵蝕。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">掌握基礎建設與關鍵瓶頸者，較具受惠機會</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">與AI基礎建設擴張直接相關，且具技術門檻、供給限制或需求剛性的環節，受惠機會相對較高。例如，隨著AI日益深入企業流程，資安防護、身分驗證與資料合規等需求可望持續提升；在資料中心擴建與運轉帶動下，電力設備、基礎建設及銅等環節，需求能見度亦相對明確。&nbsp;<br>此外，在硬體供應鏈方面，半導體先進封裝、散熱、電源等領域，因仍具技術門檻與供應限制，中長期前景亦相對偏正向。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">表一：AI產業分化地圖</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260401-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/3/11。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI主線未變，但投資焦點已由追逐題材轉向挑選贏家</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">整體而言，AI 主線並未改變，但評價邏輯已發生轉變。過去市場對AI題材普遍給予高評價的階段已逐步告一段落，如今市場更在意：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">資本支出回收能力</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">科技巨頭的高額投入能否轉化為實際營收。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">關鍵資源掌控力</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">是否掌握電力、水冷散熱或專利封裝等硬性供給門檻。&nbsp;<br><br>考量AI產業分化與市場辨認贏家的過程中，股市表現仍可能反覆震盪，因此在資產配置上，建議以分散為原則，並適度聚焦於掌握關鍵技術、基礎設施與資源瓶頸的相關標的，以因應市場分化與波動延續。&nbsp;<br><strong>(以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">主要股債市展望及說明</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">已開發股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">美伊戰爭雖將推升能源價格，但衝突若能在短期內降溫，對經濟與物價長期結構性影響仍將有限。景氣與企業獲利增長持續，地緣政治事件或使市場短期波動加大，但不影響中期趨勢。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">新興股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">以東北亞為主的新興市場受惠AI ，景氣與企業獲利增長加速、評價仍相對低於已開發股市，多頭趨勢可望持續。然而，因短期漲幅較大，須留意可能出現漲多回檔壓力。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">信用債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">私募信貸不透明度、AI顛覆性及地緣政治事件紛擾等因素，使得信用利差微幅上升，但仍保持在歷史相對低位。考量到美國景氣仍溫和增長，預期整體信用利差大幅擴大的可能性不高，預期信用債指數在短線波動後仍將因孳息而緩步上漲。&nbsp;<br><br>其中，非投資等級債指數因存續期間較短、利率敏感度低，預期將有較佳的孳息效率，而新興市場債指數因存續期間較長，走勢往往較非投資等級債指數震盪，不過在當前利率風險有限且新興債指數殖利率仍高的環境下，故預期也將隨孳息而震盪向上。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">投資等級債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">關稅影響消退及勞動需求放緩有利通膨降溫，但美伊戰爭又為前景添增不確定性，Fed短期內或將陷入觀望，不過根據過往經驗，地緣政治事件往往只會帶來短期波動、不易扭轉整體經濟及金融市場趨勢，加上目前投資等級債指數殖利率約在4~5%，殖利率將為總報酬提供支撐。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">商品市場</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">儘管美國與以色列轟炸伊朗，帶動國際油價短期大幅上漲，但市場多認為，若伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽，亦可能衝擊其外匯收入，因此是否具備長期封鎖條件仍有待觀察。&nbsp;<br><br>從期貨市場來看，目前中長天期油價漲幅明顯低於短天期，顯示市場對此次衝突可能造成的長期能源供給衝擊仍持較審慎看法。若後續戰事未進一步擴大，原物料價格走勢仍可能以震盪整理為主。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>投資新興市場應留意政治風險與經濟情勢變動之影響，波動性與風險程度可能較高。</strong>註：美國投資等級公司債係指彭博美國投資等級公司債指數、美國非投資等級公司債係指彭博美國非投資等級公司債指數、新興美元主權債係指彭博新興美元債指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。本資料僅供參考，不代表投資績效之保證。投資人申購基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不代表基金之績效，基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"過去市場對AI題材普遍給予高評價的時期已逐漸結束，如今投資人更關注的是，科技巨頭的大規模投入能否轉化為實際營收，以及企業是否掌握關鍵資源與技術。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/02 09:30:42","startTime":"2026-04-02T09:30:34.2000000+08:00","metaTitle":"2026年初軟體股為何重挫？AI加速發展下的產業變局與投資機會｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-02T09:32:49.5130000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/ff93bf7d-0584-41bc-b83f-f11937d40bc5"}],"news01":[{"id":3053,"guid":"af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美、伊表態結束戰爭意願，FED升息預期暫消退，股市觸底反彈</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市在美、伊戰爭預期可能將結束，伊朗總統亦表示願意結束戰爭，雖然川普演說表示將繼續攻擊伊朗，直至與伊朗達成協議、油價繼續彈升，但伊朗開始放寬通行荷莫茲海峽條件，使已因美伊戰爭修正近一個月的股市風險情緒好轉，美股波段下跌10%左右後出現反彈。<br><br>台股在週一及週二強勢股補跌後，搭配美、伊戰爭可望近尾聲預期，以及週二台股融資餘額劇減百億台幣以上，週三台股亦現大幅反彈。<br><br>而美國聯準會(FED)主席Powell暗示，短期不會因油價大漲改變貨幣政策立場，使升息預期減弱，美國公債殖利率回落，亦降低了抑制股市的力量。<br><br>總計<strong>一週（2026/3/30-4/3）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲1.7%、3.0%、4.1%、5.0%，台股下跌1.6%以32572點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑9個bps至4.35%，美元指數持平於100.18，<u>油價(WTI)再漲11.9%至每桶111.54美元</u>，黃金價格反彈3.4%至每盎司4679.70美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">股市風險情緒好轉觸底反彈，戰爭延續時間及油價走勢，仍為關注焦點</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美伊戰爭造成股市下跌，主要即來自於伊朗封鎖荷莫茲海峽造成油價大漲，引發通膨及各國央行可能升息擔憂。在美、伊皆有結束戰爭的意願，以及荷莫茲海峽船隻通行數開始上升下，股市風險情緒獲得改善。<br><br>不過，短期<u>油價仍因為戰火未停歇持續走高</u>，美伊戰爭是否能如川普所言於二至三週內結束，以及荷莫茲海峽的封鎖情況，攸關油價及未來通膨發展及後續對經濟的影響。<br><br>而上週FED主席<u>Powell亦表示不會因短期油價大漲調整貨幣政策</u>，原本投資人對FED升息預期機率上升的狀況改變，FED繼續維持利率政策不變的預期回升（年底前利率維持不變的機率為69.5%，2026/4/3），使公債殖利率回落，亦助股市評價提升。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國消費及就業穩定，經濟維持擴張，股市已達合理修正幅度</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">過去在經濟未衰退狀況下，重大事件造成美股合理修正幅度者在10~20%間。而<u>此次美股主要指數最大修正幅度已達9.8%至16.6%</u>(見下表)。<br><br>而美國經濟仍保持穩定，2月核心零售銷售月增0.5%優於預期；非農就業新增人數17.8萬人（預期6.5萬人）、失業率降至4.3 %亦明顯優於預期。美國消費動能及就業市場保持穩定，經濟仍維持擴張狀態。<br><br><u>台股在上週三大幅反彈前亦已回檔10.9%</u>，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線(32,328點)附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">因美伊戰爭造成美、台股波段跌幅</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">主要指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">道瓊指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">S&amp;P 500</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">Nasdaq</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">費城半導體</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">台股</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段高點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">50512</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7002</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">23988</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">8498</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">35579</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段低點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">45057</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">6317</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">20690</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7084</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">31705</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">跌幅</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-9.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-13.70%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-16.60%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.90%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：計算自速霸贏家，2026/4。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI進入推論階段，基礎設施及關鍵零組件需求持續爆發，基本面仍正向發展</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2006年AI發展雖已步入第四年，但因新的AI龐大潛在市場出現，AI使用人數及滲透率快速上升，科技相關基礎設施架構全面改變，加上算力需求指數級成長，以及Nvidia等大型科技公司主導技術發展、計畫性提升產品規格及應用層面快速拓展，AI發展及科技業成長動能仍未見減速。<br><br>而此亦繼續提供台股企業獲利成長動能綿延不絕的力量。在股市已修正之際，評價已處合理水準，在美、伊戰爭影響漸減後，股市仍將反應基本面正向發展。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> 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style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">完整分析各國經濟發展趨勢，配置較高權重於成長潛力高的國家並適時調整，增進投資效益。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2011/10/24","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"上海商業儲蓄銀行","ec009":"RR5","ec012":"2.00%","ec013":"0.240%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資股票型","ec020_sort":5084,"ec022":"","ec024":"東協地區","ec026":"股票型","ec028":"","ec030":"T+4日","ec036":"上海商業儲蓄銀行仁愛分行","ec037":"復華東協世紀基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華東協世紀基金 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"350009928.000000","roi3m":"4.25%","roi6m":"12.25%","roi1y":"11.91%","roi2y":"22.57%","roi3y":"29.48%","roiLaunch":"81.40%","roiY2D":"4.25%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"林光佑","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":3053,"guid":"af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美、伊表態結束戰爭意願，FED升息預期暫消退，股市觸底反彈</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市在美、伊戰爭預期可能將結束，伊朗總統亦表示願意結束戰爭，雖然川普演說表示將繼續攻擊伊朗，直至與伊朗達成協議、油價繼續彈升，但伊朗開始放寬通行荷莫茲海峽條件，使已因美伊戰爭修正近一個月的股市風險情緒好轉，美股波段下跌10%左右後出現反彈。<br><br>台股在週一及週二強勢股補跌後，搭配美、伊戰爭可望近尾聲預期，以及週二台股融資餘額劇減百億台幣以上，週三台股亦現大幅反彈。<br><br>而美國聯準會(FED)主席Powell暗示，短期不會因油價大漲改變貨幣政策立場，使升息預期減弱，美國公債殖利率回落，亦降低了抑制股市的力量。<br><br>總計<strong>一週（2026/3/30-4/3）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲1.7%、3.0%、4.1%、5.0%，台股下跌1.6%以32572點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑9個bps至4.35%，美元指數持平於100.18，<u>油價(WTI)再漲11.9%至每桶111.54美元</u>，黃金價格反彈3.4%至每盎司4679.70美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">股市風險情緒好轉觸底反彈，戰爭延續時間及油價走勢，仍為關注焦點</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美伊戰爭造成股市下跌，主要即來自於伊朗封鎖荷莫茲海峽造成油價大漲，引發通膨及各國央行可能升息擔憂。在美、伊皆有結束戰爭的意願，以及荷莫茲海峽船隻通行數開始上升下，股市風險情緒獲得改善。<br><br>不過，短期<u>油價仍因為戰火未停歇持續走高</u>，美伊戰爭是否能如川普所言於二至三週內結束，以及荷莫茲海峽的封鎖情況，攸關油價及未來通膨發展及後續對經濟的影響。<br><br>而上週FED主席<u>Powell亦表示不會因短期油價大漲調整貨幣政策</u>，原本投資人對FED升息預期機率上升的狀況改變，FED繼續維持利率政策不變的預期回升（年底前利率維持不變的機率為69.5%，2026/4/3），使公債殖利率回落，亦助股市評價提升。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國消費及就業穩定，經濟維持擴張，股市已達合理修正幅度</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">過去在經濟未衰退狀況下，重大事件造成美股合理修正幅度者在10~20%間。而<u>此次美股主要指數最大修正幅度已達9.8%至16.6%</u>(見下表)。<br><br>而美國經濟仍保持穩定，2月核心零售銷售月增0.5%優於預期；非農就業新增人數17.8萬人（預期6.5萬人）、失業率降至4.3 %亦明顯優於預期。美國消費動能及就業市場保持穩定，經濟仍維持擴張狀態。<br><br><u>台股在上週三大幅反彈前亦已回檔10.9%</u>，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線(32,328點)附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">因美伊戰爭造成美、台股波段跌幅</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">主要指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">道瓊指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">S&amp;P 500</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">Nasdaq</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">費城半導體</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">台股</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段高點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">50512</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7002</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">23988</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">8498</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">35579</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段低點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">45057</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">6317</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">20690</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7084</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">31705</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">跌幅</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-9.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-13.70%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-16.60%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.90%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：計算自速霸贏家，2026/4。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI進入推論階段，基礎設施及關鍵零組件需求持續爆發，基本面仍正向發展</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2006年AI發展雖已步入第四年，但因新的AI龐大潛在市場出現，AI使用人數及滲透率快速上升，科技相關基礎設施架構全面改變，加上算力需求指數級成長，以及Nvidia等大型科技公司主導技術發展、計畫性提升產品規格及應用層面快速拓展，AI發展及科技業成長動能仍未見減速。<br><br>而此亦繼續提供台股企業獲利成長動能綿延不絕的力量。在股市已修正之際，評價已處合理水準，在美、伊戰爭影響漸減後，股市仍將反應基本面正向發展。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"台股短線的波段跌幅為10.9%，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-99.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/07 10:15:01","startTime":"2026-04-07T10:15:01.1100000+08:00","metaTitle":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-07T10:21:00.2230000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c"},{"id":2985,"guid":"c6dd5652-8317-4354-a4a7-4f47353e3a60","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"格陵蘭爭議緩解，股市延續上升軌道","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市隨格陵蘭問題爭議變化波動，先跌後漲。美國總統川普在週三表示已與北約達成格陵蘭框架協議，美國將參與礦產開發權，不會以武力解決，且取消2月將對於歐洲課徵的新關稅措施，市場風險情緒明顯改善、股市反彈回揚。<br><br>不過地緣政治擔憂未完全解除，歐洲各國減持美元資產議題延續，國際美元走弱、金價續創新高。油價則因美國再度對伊朗實施制裁，且川普週五表示已派艦隊前往中東，上週反彈上揚。<br><br>週五雖Intel因受記憶體價格上揚、與產能受限，使2025年第一季業績展望不如預期股價重挫17%，但因屬公司個別因素，並未影響其他大型科技股及輝達與台積電在內的主要半導體公司股價上揚。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong><br><br>總計一週(2026/1/19 ~ 2026/1/23)美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別變化-0.5%、+0.4%、-0.1%、+1.8%，台股一週上漲1.8%以31,961點收盤。美國10年期公債殖利率一週持平於4.24%，美元指數週跌1.9%至97.52，油價(WTI)則上漲2.7%至每桶61.07美元。<br><br>主要影響股市因素包括：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">格陵蘭問題緩解、股市揚升，但金價持續強勢</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">川普「買下格陵蘭」議題，一度引發歐、美關係緊張，川普再以關稅威脅欲取得格陵蘭控制權，主要目的著眼於格陵蘭礦產資源以及戰略位置地位。<br><br>雖然美國與北約達成「格陵蘭框架協議」，取得未來參與礦產開發權利，並取消對歐洲新關稅計劃，股市風險情緒改善後回穩，不過此問題再度引發地緣政治風險，以及歐洲國家可能減持美元資產、增加黃金需求，使得黃金價格持續上揚，2026年以來截至1/22，黃金價格已再上漲14.3%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國經濟穩定、日債殖利率彈升，推升美債殖利率</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">近期美國公債殖利率在地緣政治關係緊張下仍然上揚，主要反應：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">美國經濟穩定、Fed不急於再降息</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國經濟在股市上揚、美國聯準會(Fed)降息循環及AI熱潮下維持擴張狀態下，2025年第三季GDP成長率上修至4.4%(原4.3%)優於預期，週初請失業救濟金人數維持於20萬人的低檔水準，1月綜合PMI微增至52.8(前月52.7)，顯示美國經濟仍維持穩定狀態。<br><br>雖然物價年增速仍漸放緩，但經濟仍穩定下Fed不急於再降息，利率期貨顯示Fed可能於2026年中才會再度降息。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">日本寬鬆財政、日債殖利率揚升</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">日本首相高市早苗提前國會改選，並將暫時取消消費稅措施，使得對日本財政赤字擔憂，影響日本10年期公債殖利率走升，自2026年以來彈升18個基本點(bps)，亦帶動了美債殖利率的揚升。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">股市維持多頭下的資金匯集投資主題</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>電力、上游關鍵原物料、AI技術領先龍頭；國防、低軌衛星、及傳產外銷績優公司。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">股市仍受惠AI及企業獲利成長維持多頭趨勢</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在AI趨勢、企業獲利成長、Fed可望維持降息循環下，股市維持震盪走升的多頭趨勢。不過近期公債殖利率的彈升，亦影響了部分先前漲多的AI相關股價波動加大的震盪表現。<br><br>而在AI趨勢的浪潮發展下，除了大型科技公司持續資本支出大幅度上升外，包括台積電在內整體的AI供應鏈公司，皆呈現大量資本支出上升的現象。而在AI需求呈指數級增加、產能僅以線性增加的情況下，出現諸多產品長期供不應求的相關公司的投資機會。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">股市資金匯集的主要投資主題</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>A.AI投資主題</strong><br>a.電力相關基礎設施提供的公司，以及電源規格提升的商機。<br>b.上游關鍵原物料及零組件大幅度的供需缺口，使產品價格持續上漲的商機。<br>c.未來仍持續受惠AI發展快速成長、技術領先，且獲利成長性仍佳的龍頭公司。<br><br><strong>B.非AI投資主題</strong><br>a.地緣政治風險持續、各國國防支出增加的商機。<br>b.今年Space-X將上市所帶動的低軌衛星的商機。<br>c.台美關稅協議達成，傳產外銷美國的公司關稅稅率，由25%以上降至15%，再加匯率維持穩定，績優外銷公司獲利走出谷底的投資機會。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"美國經濟仍維持穩定狀態，雖然物價年增速仍漸放緩，但經濟仍穩定下Fed不急於再降息，利率期貨顯示Fed可能於2026年中才會再度降息。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/view-14.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/01/26 09:23:08","startTime":"2026-01-26T09:23:08.8770000+08:00","metaTitle":"格陵蘭爭議緩解，股市延續上升軌道｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-01-30T18:03:59.2670000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/c6dd5652-8317-4354-a4a7-4f47353e3a60"}],"news01":[{"id":3053,"guid":"af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美、伊表態結束戰爭意願，FED升息預期暫消退，股市觸底反彈</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市在美、伊戰爭預期可能將結束，伊朗總統亦表示願意結束戰爭，雖然川普演說表示將繼續攻擊伊朗，直至與伊朗達成協議、油價繼續彈升，但伊朗開始放寬通行荷莫茲海峽條件，使已因美伊戰爭修正近一個月的股市風險情緒好轉，美股波段下跌10%左右後出現反彈。<br><br>台股在週一及週二強勢股補跌後，搭配美、伊戰爭可望近尾聲預期，以及週二台股融資餘額劇減百億台幣以上，週三台股亦現大幅反彈。<br><br>而美國聯準會(FED)主席Powell暗示，短期不會因油價大漲改變貨幣政策立場，使升息預期減弱，美國公債殖利率回落，亦降低了抑制股市的力量。<br><br>總計<strong>一週（2026/3/30-4/3）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲1.7%、3.0%、4.1%、5.0%，台股下跌1.6%以32572點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑9個bps至4.35%，美元指數持平於100.18，<u>油價(WTI)再漲11.9%至每桶111.54美元</u>，黃金價格反彈3.4%至每盎司4679.70美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">股市風險情緒好轉觸底反彈，戰爭延續時間及油價走勢，仍為關注焦點</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美伊戰爭造成股市下跌，主要即來自於伊朗封鎖荷莫茲海峽造成油價大漲，引發通膨及各國央行可能升息擔憂。在美、伊皆有結束戰爭的意願，以及荷莫茲海峽船隻通行數開始上升下，股市風險情緒獲得改善。<br><br>不過，短期<u>油價仍因為戰火未停歇持續走高</u>，美伊戰爭是否能如川普所言於二至三週內結束，以及荷莫茲海峽的封鎖情況，攸關油價及未來通膨發展及後續對經濟的影響。<br><br>而上週FED主席<u>Powell亦表示不會因短期油價大漲調整貨幣政策</u>，原本投資人對FED升息預期機率上升的狀況改變，FED繼續維持利率政策不變的預期回升（年底前利率維持不變的機率為69.5%，2026/4/3），使公債殖利率回落，亦助股市評價提升。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國消費及就業穩定，經濟維持擴張，股市已達合理修正幅度</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">過去在經濟未衰退狀況下，重大事件造成美股合理修正幅度者在10~20%間。而<u>此次美股主要指數最大修正幅度已達9.8%至16.6%</u>(見下表)。<br><br>而美國經濟仍保持穩定，2月核心零售銷售月增0.5%優於預期；非農就業新增人數17.8萬人（預期6.5萬人）、失業率降至4.3 %亦明顯優於預期。美國消費動能及就業市場保持穩定，經濟仍維持擴張狀態。<br><br><u>台股在上週三大幅反彈前亦已回檔10.9%</u>，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線(32,328點)附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">因美伊戰爭造成美、台股波段跌幅</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">主要指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">道瓊指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">S&amp;P 500</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">Nasdaq</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">費城半導體</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">台股</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段高點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">50512</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7002</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">23988</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">8498</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">35579</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段低點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">45057</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">6317</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">20690</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7084</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">31705</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">跌幅</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-9.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-13.70%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-16.60%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.90%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：計算自速霸贏家，2026/4。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI進入推論階段，基礎設施及關鍵零組件需求持續爆發，基本面仍正向發展</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2006年AI發展雖已步入第四年，但因新的AI龐大潛在市場出現，AI使用人數及滲透率快速上升，科技相關基礎設施架構全面改變，加上算力需求指數級成長，以及Nvidia等大型科技公司主導技術發展、計畫性提升產品規格及應用層面快速拓展，AI發展及科技業成長動能仍未見減速。<br><br>而此亦繼續提供台股企業獲利成長動能綿延不絕的力量。在股市已修正之際，評價已處合理水準，在美、伊戰爭影響漸減後，股市仍將反應基本面正向發展。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"台股短線的波段跌幅為10.9%，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-99.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/07 10:15:01","startTime":"2026-04-07T10:15:01.1100000+08:00","metaTitle":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-07T10:21:00.2230000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/34.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/34.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/34.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=34","url2":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&Fund=34","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1086,"updateTime":"2026-04-17T08:58:25.8200000+08:00","guid":"551089a9-0a72-406e-b25d-c629f0f6de3a","fundID":"73","twNameFull":"復華美國新星基金-美元","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa US Equity Fund-USD","ec002":"","twName":"美國新星美元","pnav":"33.72","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"-0.77","changeRange":"-2.23%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">以全球各產業創新的主要發源地「美國」為主要投資地區，為投資人在步調最快速的市場中尋找可能萌發的成長機會。</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">以績優大型股，搭配創新、流動性高的中小型股，追求報酬同時，透過分散持股來降低風險。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2013/11/13","ec006":"美元","ec010":"臺灣中小企業銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"2.00%","ec013":"0.150%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資股票型","ec020_sort":5084,"ec022":"","ec024":"美國","ec026":"股票型","ec028":"","ec030":"T+4日","ec036":"台灣中小企業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華美國新星基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華美國新星基金-美元 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":0,"fundSize_TWD":"253138456.880400","roi3m":"1.18%","roi6m":"4.92%","roi1y":"29.37%","roi2y":"30.66%","roi3y":"60.71%","roiLaunch":"175.02%","roiY2D":"1.18%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"黃俊瑞","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[{"name":"郭俊宏","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"news":[{"id":2601,"guid":"b2b85aa6-54c6-4a39-8a43-d241e04e716f","articleCategory":"首頁推薦基金文章","title":"美國經濟保持韌性，衰退擔憂降低","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。&nbsp;<br><br>值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">「復華美國新星基金」配置策略：</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在川普執政時代下，預計配置規劃以成長型類股為長線主軸，搭配政策受惠題材，採取多元配置策略。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202503/20250328-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>上述配置比例僅為預計規劃，基金資產配置將視當時投資環境調整。</strong>資料來源：復華投信，2026年3月。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"市場靜待美國關稅措施影響減輕，或者美國聯準會(Fed)降息訊號顯現，股市可望再展開基本面主導的多頭趨勢。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202503/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,美國,科技","postTime":"2026/04/23 09:53:37","startTime":"2026-04-23T09:53:33.8370000+08:00","metaTitle":"美國經濟具韌性、Fed有降息空間，預期經濟衰退機率低｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-23T09:53:43.3570000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"8c2a02e2-f52a-46ea-a71f-b90e4ae0985e","category":{"id":21010,"guid":"8c2a02e2-f52a-46ea-a71f-b90e4ae0985e","name":"首頁推薦基金文章","parentGuid":"","route":"/insights_list/article_list/recommend_content?page=1","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/recommend_content/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"","isEnabled":1,"show":0,"showm":0,"description":"","metaTitle":"","metaDescription":"","metaKeyword":"","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/ea975eaf-ace7-4d37-b0e2-22ee851cc211G.logo.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12317,"guid":"e12e95d7-9076-4c93-a599-74a24cdaf632","name":"首頁推薦基金文章","parentGuid":"","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/recommend_content/b2b85aa6-54c6-4a39-8a43-d241e04e716f"},{"id":2714,"guid":"78e560a6-93dc-414e-9688-7d3b3ed1622e","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"高關稅擔憂降低、AI持續發展，股市信心持續恢復","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普關稅政策影響降溫，AI投資熱潮延續，股市持續反彈</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">美中關稅戰降溫、AI趨勢延續，股市續揚</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市普遍上揚，週一公布中美達成短期協議，暫大幅降低雙方關稅稅率，市場風險情緒明顯好轉；此外、沙烏地阿拉伯與卡達分別宣布包括AI晶片及飛機等在內的大額投資及訂單金額，以及美國解除拜登時期的AI晶片限制出口法案，亦使科技股、半導體類股股價上漲，台股亦受惠，台積電及電子類股上漲、海運股反應中美貿易解凍亦表現強勢，在類股輪動、外資仍持續買超下，台股一週亦上漲4.4%重回季線之上。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">關稅對經濟影響可望降低，股市反應基本面表現</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">雖然美國聯準會(Fed)主席Powell擔心因關稅將使長期通膨上升、穩定度下降，不過4月份的美國零售銷售及物價數據仍呈降溫狀況。4月消費者物價(CPI)及核心消費物價分別年增2.3%(3月2.4%)、2.8%(持平)，生產者物價月減0.5%、年增2.4%(3月2.5%)；4月零售銷售僅月增0.1%、核心零售銷售則月減0.2%亦低於預期。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">不過美國4月零售銷售年增率仍達5.2%，週初請失業救濟會人數22.9萬人仍穩定，美國經濟雖受關稅政策影響動能，但仍具基本韌性，致使在上週中美貿易關稅戰降溫後，美股S&amp;P500指數反彈後離歷史高點僅差3%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">總計一週(2025/5/12-5/16)美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲3.4%、5.3%、7.2%、10.2%，台股一週上漲4.4%以21843點收盤；美國10年期公債殖利率一週上揚6個bps至4.43%，油價(WTI)一週上漲2.4%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美債遭降評的可能影響：對美國股、債市皆為暫時性影響，經濟表現、通膨發展、企業獲利表現、Fed政策仍為關鍵</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">5/16(五)美股收盤後信評機構Moody’s亦調降了美國債信評等，由最高等級的Aaa降一級至Aa1，此為三大信評機構最後一家將美國信評摘除最高等級的機構。標普S&amp;P早在2011年、惠譽(Fitch)則在2023年，在美國因發生國會債務上限問題爭議後，分別已調降了美債最高等級信評。此對美國股債市皆為一次性的暫時性影響，原因如下：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">美債遭穆迪調降信評為暫時性影響</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>(1)美國經濟表現仍穩定、國家競爭力仍強</strong><br>雖有川普關稅戰的影響，但美國的科技創新及經濟韌性，與美國民間債務狀況健康，仍支撐美國長期競爭力及經濟長期表現，此乃是持有美債的投資人基本信心所在。<br><br><strong>(2)美債胃納量難以被取代</strong><br>目前僅有11個國家擁有最高等級信評(見下表一)，而其中僅德國具有較大公債量體可供國際投資人購買，不過目前10年期德債殖利率亦僅2.5%左右，而美債殖利率仍達4.4%，美債投資價值及資產配置角色仍難以被取代。<br><br><strong>(3)政府債務水準及信評，對公債殖利率高低並無一定關係</strong><br>目前美國債務佔GDP比重為123%(2024年底)，而仍有最高等級的信評國家如新加坡、加拿大分別亦高達162%及105%(見下表二)；且政府債務水準與公債殖利率高低亦沒有必然的正向關係，如日本政府債務佔GDP比重高達255%全球最高，但10年期公債殖利率水準卻只有0.85%左右。<br><br><strong>美國擁有印美元印鈔權、外債等同國內債務的特性，除非對美國經濟及美元喪失信心，美國實質倒債風險幾乎不會發生。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">股債市表現最終仍由經濟表現、通膨、Fed政策決定</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">因此，短期美債再遭穆迪降評失去最高評級，可能對股債市造成短期修正，但對債市而言，債務的支付能力、美國經濟的穩定性、通膨的發展、Fed政策變化才是最終決定公債殖利率水準的關鍵；對股市而言，持續的經濟及企業獲利成長、Fed及政府的重大政策，仍是決定股市方向的主因。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">表一：擁有最高信評債券等級國家</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">國家</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">S&amp;P</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">Moody's</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">Fitch</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">德國</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">瑞士</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">新加坡</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">挪威</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">澳洲</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">瑞典</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">丹麥</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">盧森堡</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">荷蘭</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">加拿大</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AA+</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">芬蘭</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AA+</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AA+</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，ChatGPT，復華投信整理。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">表二:政府債務佔GDP及10年期公債殖利率</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">國家／地區</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">政府債務佔GDP(%)</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">10年期公債殖利率(%)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">日本</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">254.6</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">0.85</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">新加坡</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">162.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.1</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">希臘</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">158.2</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.36</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">義大利</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">136.3</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.8</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">美國</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">123.3</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">4.39</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">英國</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">104.3</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">4.57</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">法國</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">113.8</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.26</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">加拿大</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">104.7</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.02</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">西班牙</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">104.3</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.52</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">比利時</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">105.6</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.13</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">葡萄牙</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">100.6</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.4</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">中國</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">89</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2.7</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">印度</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">82.8</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7.1</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">巴西</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">70</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">14.6</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">德國</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">63.7</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2.5</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">南韓</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">55.2</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.0</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">澳洲</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">49.4</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.5</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">台灣</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">25</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">1.2</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">俄羅斯</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">19.9</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">9.0</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，ChatGPT，政府債務佔GDP為2024年底資料，10年期公債殖利率為至2025年5月中旬數據，復華投信整理。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"美國經濟雖受關稅政策影響動能，但仍具基本韌性，致使在上週中美貿易關稅戰降溫後，美股S&P500指數反彈後離歷史高點僅差3%。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202505/view-98.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2025/05/19 14:12:11","startTime":"2025-05-19T14:11:57.3900000+08:00","metaTitle":"高關稅擔憂降低、AI持續發展，股市信心持續恢復｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-05-19T14:12:13.3200000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/78e560a6-93dc-414e-9688-7d3b3ed1622e"}],"news01":[{"id":2714,"guid":"78e560a6-93dc-414e-9688-7d3b3ed1622e","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"高關稅擔憂降低、AI持續發展，股市信心持續恢復","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普關稅政策影響降溫，AI投資熱潮延續，股市持續反彈</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">美中關稅戰降溫、AI趨勢延續，股市續揚</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市普遍上揚，週一公布中美達成短期協議，暫大幅降低雙方關稅稅率，市場風險情緒明顯好轉；此外、沙烏地阿拉伯與卡達分別宣布包括AI晶片及飛機等在內的大額投資及訂單金額，以及美國解除拜登時期的AI晶片限制出口法案，亦使科技股、半導體類股股價上漲，台股亦受惠，台積電及電子類股上漲、海運股反應中美貿易解凍亦表現強勢，在類股輪動、外資仍持續買超下，台股一週亦上漲4.4%重回季線之上。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">關稅對經濟影響可望降低，股市反應基本面表現</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">雖然美國聯準會(Fed)主席Powell擔心因關稅將使長期通膨上升、穩定度下降，不過4月份的美國零售銷售及物價數據仍呈降溫狀況。4月消費者物價(CPI)及核心消費物價分別年增2.3%(3月2.4%)、2.8%(持平)，生產者物價月減0.5%、年增2.4%(3月2.5%)；4月零售銷售僅月增0.1%、核心零售銷售則月減0.2%亦低於預期。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">不過美國4月零售銷售年增率仍達5.2%，週初請失業救濟會人數22.9萬人仍穩定，美國經濟雖受關稅政策影響動能，但仍具基本韌性，致使在上週中美貿易關稅戰降溫後，美股S&amp;P500指數反彈後離歷史高點僅差3%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">總計一週(2025/5/12-5/16)美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲3.4%、5.3%、7.2%、10.2%，台股一週上漲4.4%以21843點收盤；美國10年期公債殖利率一週上揚6個bps至4.43%，油價(WTI)一週上漲2.4%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美債遭降評的可能影響：對美國股、債市皆為暫時性影響，經濟表現、通膨發展、企業獲利表現、Fed政策仍為關鍵</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">5/16(五)美股收盤後信評機構Moody’s亦調降了美國債信評等，由最高等級的Aaa降一級至Aa1，此為三大信評機構最後一家將美國信評摘除最高等級的機構。標普S&amp;P早在2011年、惠譽(Fitch)則在2023年，在美國因發生國會債務上限問題爭議後，分別已調降了美債最高等級信評。此對美國股債市皆為一次性的暫時性影響，原因如下：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">美債遭穆迪調降信評為暫時性影響</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>(1)美國經濟表現仍穩定、國家競爭力仍強</strong><br>雖有川普關稅戰的影響，但美國的科技創新及經濟韌性，與美國民間債務狀況健康，仍支撐美國長期競爭力及經濟長期表現，此乃是持有美債的投資人基本信心所在。<br><br><strong>(2)美債胃納量難以被取代</strong><br>目前僅有11個國家擁有最高等級信評(見下表一)，而其中僅德國具有較大公債量體可供國際投資人購買，不過目前10年期德債殖利率亦僅2.5%左右，而美債殖利率仍達4.4%，美債投資價值及資產配置角色仍難以被取代。<br><br><strong>(3)政府債務水準及信評，對公債殖利率高低並無一定關係</strong><br>目前美國債務佔GDP比重為123%(2024年底)，而仍有最高等級的信評國家如新加坡、加拿大分別亦高達162%及105%(見下表二)；且政府債務水準與公債殖利率高低亦沒有必然的正向關係，如日本政府債務佔GDP比重高達255%全球最高，但10年期公債殖利率水準卻只有0.85%左右。<br><br><strong>美國擁有印美元印鈔權、外債等同國內債務的特性，除非對美國經濟及美元喪失信心，美國實質倒債風險幾乎不會發生。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">股債市表現最終仍由經濟表現、通膨、Fed政策決定</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">因此，短期美債再遭穆迪降評失去最高評級，可能對股債市造成短期修正，但對債市而言，債務的支付能力、美國經濟的穩定性、通膨的發展、Fed政策變化才是最終決定公債殖利率水準的關鍵；對股市而言，持續的經濟及企業獲利成長、Fed及政府的重大政策，仍是決定股市方向的主因。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">表一：擁有最高信評債券等級國家</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">國家</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">S&amp;P</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">Moody's</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">Fitch</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">德國</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">瑞士</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">新加坡</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">挪威</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">澳洲</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">瑞典</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">丹麥</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">盧森堡</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">荷蘭</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">加拿大</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AA+</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">芬蘭</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AA+</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AA+</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，ChatGPT，復華投信整理。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">表二:政府債務佔GDP及10年期公債殖利率</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">國家／地區</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">政府債務佔GDP(%)</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">10年期公債殖利率(%)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">日本</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">254.6</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">0.85</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">新加坡</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">162.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.1</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">希臘</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">158.2</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.36</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">義大利</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">136.3</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.8</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">美國</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">123.3</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">4.39</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">英國</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">104.3</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">4.57</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">法國</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">113.8</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.26</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">加拿大</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">104.7</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.02</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">西班牙</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">104.3</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.52</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">比利時</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">105.6</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.13</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">葡萄牙</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">100.6</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.4</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">中國</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">89</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2.7</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">印度</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">82.8</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7.1</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">巴西</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">70</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">14.6</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">德國</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">63.7</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2.5</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">南韓</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">55.2</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.0</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">澳洲</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">49.4</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.5</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">台灣</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">25</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">1.2</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">俄羅斯</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">19.9</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">9.0</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，ChatGPT，政府債務佔GDP為2024年底資料，10年期公債殖利率為至2025年5月中旬數據，復華投信整理。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"美國經濟雖受關稅政策影響動能，但仍具基本韌性，致使在上週中美貿易關稅戰降溫後，美股S&P500指數反彈後離歷史高點僅差3%。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202505/view-98.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2025/05/19 14:12:11","startTime":"2025-05-19T14:11:57.3900000+08:00","metaTitle":"高關稅擔憂降低、AI持續發展，股市信心持續恢復｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-05-19T14:12:13.3200000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/78e560a6-93dc-414e-9688-7d3b3ed1622e"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/73.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/73.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/73.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"","url2":"","file01":"/docupload/download/help/K1.pdf"},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"2016/04/15","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1087,"updateTime":"2026-04-17T08:58:51.6570000+08:00","guid":"36e334aa-7d01-411b-b970-8879f2276899","fundID":"47","twNameFull":"復華美國新星基金-新臺幣","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa US Equity Fund-TWD","ec002":"","twName":"美國新星新臺幣","pnav":"34.52","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"-0.73","changeRange":"-2.07%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">以全球各產業創新的主要發源地「美國」為主要投資地區，為投資人在步調最快速的市場中尋找可能萌發的成長機會。</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">以績優大型股，搭配創新、流動性高的中小型股，追求報酬同時，透過分散持股來降低風險。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2013/11/13","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"臺灣中小企業銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"2.00%","ec013":"0.150%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資股票型","ec020_sort":5084,"ec022":"","ec024":"美國","ec026":"股票型","ec028":"","ec030":"T+4日","ec036":"臺灣中小企業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華美國新星基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":1,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華美國新星基金-新臺幣 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"定時定額0％手續費","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"2568281222.000000","roi3m":"2.70%","roi6m":"9.51%","roi1y":"23.36%","roi2y":"29.33%","roi3y":"67.17%","roiLaunch":"185.70%","roiY2D":"2.70%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"1","value02":"1","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"黃俊瑞","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[{"name":"郭俊宏","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"news":[{"id":2601,"guid":"b2b85aa6-54c6-4a39-8a43-d241e04e716f","articleCategory":"首頁推薦基金文章","title":"美國經濟保持韌性，衰退擔憂降低","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。&nbsp;<br><br>值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">「復華美國新星基金」配置策略：</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在川普執政時代下，預計配置規劃以成長型類股為長線主軸，搭配政策受惠題材，採取多元配置策略。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202503/20250328-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>上述配置比例僅為預計規劃，基金資產配置將視當時投資環境調整。</strong>資料來源：復華投信，2026年3月。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"市場靜待美國關稅措施影響減輕，或者美國聯準會(Fed)降息訊號顯現，股市可望再展開基本面主導的多頭趨勢。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202503/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,美國,科技","postTime":"2026/04/23 09:53:37","startTime":"2026-04-23T09:53:33.8370000+08:00","metaTitle":"美國經濟具韌性、Fed有降息空間，預期經濟衰退機率低｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-23T09:53:43.3570000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"8c2a02e2-f52a-46ea-a71f-b90e4ae0985e","category":{"id":21010,"guid":"8c2a02e2-f52a-46ea-a71f-b90e4ae0985e","name":"首頁推薦基金文章","parentGuid":"","route":"/insights_list/article_list/recommend_content?page=1","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/recommend_content/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"","isEnabled":1,"show":0,"showm":0,"description":"","metaTitle":"","metaDescription":"","metaKeyword":"","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/ea975eaf-ace7-4d37-b0e2-22ee851cc211G.logo.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12317,"guid":"e12e95d7-9076-4c93-a599-74a24cdaf632","name":"首頁推薦基金文章","parentGuid":"","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/recommend_content/b2b85aa6-54c6-4a39-8a43-d241e04e716f"},{"id":3053,"guid":"af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美、伊表態結束戰爭意願，FED升息預期暫消退，股市觸底反彈</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市在美、伊戰爭預期可能將結束，伊朗總統亦表示願意結束戰爭，雖然川普演說表示將繼續攻擊伊朗，直至與伊朗達成協議、油價繼續彈升，但伊朗開始放寬通行荷莫茲海峽條件，使已因美伊戰爭修正近一個月的股市風險情緒好轉，美股波段下跌10%左右後出現反彈。<br><br>台股在週一及週二強勢股補跌後，搭配美、伊戰爭可望近尾聲預期，以及週二台股融資餘額劇減百億台幣以上，週三台股亦現大幅反彈。<br><br>而美國聯準會(FED)主席Powell暗示，短期不會因油價大漲改變貨幣政策立場，使升息預期減弱，美國公債殖利率回落，亦降低了抑制股市的力量。<br><br>總計<strong>一週（2026/3/30-4/3）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲1.7%、3.0%、4.1%、5.0%，台股下跌1.6%以32572點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑9個bps至4.35%，美元指數持平於100.18，<u>油價(WTI)再漲11.9%至每桶111.54美元</u>，黃金價格反彈3.4%至每盎司4679.70美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">股市風險情緒好轉觸底反彈，戰爭延續時間及油價走勢，仍為關注焦點</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美伊戰爭造成股市下跌，主要即來自於伊朗封鎖荷莫茲海峽造成油價大漲，引發通膨及各國央行可能升息擔憂。在美、伊皆有結束戰爭的意願，以及荷莫茲海峽船隻通行數開始上升下，股市風險情緒獲得改善。<br><br>不過，短期<u>油價仍因為戰火未停歇持續走高</u>，美伊戰爭是否能如川普所言於二至三週內結束，以及荷莫茲海峽的封鎖情況，攸關油價及未來通膨發展及後續對經濟的影響。<br><br>而上週FED主席<u>Powell亦表示不會因短期油價大漲調整貨幣政策</u>，原本投資人對FED升息預期機率上升的狀況改變，FED繼續維持利率政策不變的預期回升（年底前利率維持不變的機率為69.5%，2026/4/3），使公債殖利率回落，亦助股市評價提升。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國消費及就業穩定，經濟維持擴張，股市已達合理修正幅度</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">過去在經濟未衰退狀況下，重大事件造成美股合理修正幅度者在10~20%間。而<u>此次美股主要指數最大修正幅度已達9.8%至16.6%</u>(見下表)。<br><br>而美國經濟仍保持穩定，2月核心零售銷售月增0.5%優於預期；非農就業新增人數17.8萬人（預期6.5萬人）、失業率降至4.3 %亦明顯優於預期。美國消費動能及就業市場保持穩定，經濟仍維持擴張狀態。<br><br><u>台股在上週三大幅反彈前亦已回檔10.9%</u>，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線(32,328點)附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">因美伊戰爭造成美、台股波段跌幅</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">主要指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">道瓊指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">S&amp;P 500</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">Nasdaq</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">費城半導體</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">台股</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段高點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">50512</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7002</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">23988</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">8498</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">35579</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段低點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">45057</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">6317</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">20690</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7084</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">31705</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">跌幅</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-9.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-13.70%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-16.60%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.90%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：計算自速霸贏家，2026/4。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI進入推論階段，基礎設施及關鍵零組件需求持續爆發，基本面仍正向發展</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2006年AI發展雖已步入第四年，但因新的AI龐大潛在市場出現，AI使用人數及滲透率快速上升，科技相關基礎設施架構全面改變，加上算力需求指數級成長，以及Nvidia等大型科技公司主導技術發展、計畫性提升產品規格及應用層面快速拓展，AI發展及科技業成長動能仍未見減速。<br><br>而此亦繼續提供台股企業獲利成長動能綿延不絕的力量。在股市已修正之際，評價已處合理水準，在美、伊戰爭影響漸減後，股市仍將反應基本面正向發展。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"台股短線的波段跌幅為10.9%，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-99.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/07 10:15:01","startTime":"2026-04-07T10:15:01.1100000+08:00","metaTitle":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-07T10:21:00.2230000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c"}],"news01":[{"id":3053,"guid":"af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美、伊表態結束戰爭意願，FED升息預期暫消退，股市觸底反彈</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市在美、伊戰爭預期可能將結束，伊朗總統亦表示願意結束戰爭，雖然川普演說表示將繼續攻擊伊朗，直至與伊朗達成協議、油價繼續彈升，但伊朗開始放寬通行荷莫茲海峽條件，使已因美伊戰爭修正近一個月的股市風險情緒好轉，美股波段下跌10%左右後出現反彈。<br><br>台股在週一及週二強勢股補跌後，搭配美、伊戰爭可望近尾聲預期，以及週二台股融資餘額劇減百億台幣以上，週三台股亦現大幅反彈。<br><br>而美國聯準會(FED)主席Powell暗示，短期不會因油價大漲改變貨幣政策立場，使升息預期減弱，美國公債殖利率回落，亦降低了抑制股市的力量。<br><br>總計<strong>一週（2026/3/30-4/3）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲1.7%、3.0%、4.1%、5.0%，台股下跌1.6%以32572點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑9個bps至4.35%，美元指數持平於100.18，<u>油價(WTI)再漲11.9%至每桶111.54美元</u>，黃金價格反彈3.4%至每盎司4679.70美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">股市風險情緒好轉觸底反彈，戰爭延續時間及油價走勢，仍為關注焦點</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美伊戰爭造成股市下跌，主要即來自於伊朗封鎖荷莫茲海峽造成油價大漲，引發通膨及各國央行可能升息擔憂。在美、伊皆有結束戰爭的意願，以及荷莫茲海峽船隻通行數開始上升下，股市風險情緒獲得改善。<br><br>不過，短期<u>油價仍因為戰火未停歇持續走高</u>，美伊戰爭是否能如川普所言於二至三週內結束，以及荷莫茲海峽的封鎖情況，攸關油價及未來通膨發展及後續對經濟的影響。<br><br>而上週FED主席<u>Powell亦表示不會因短期油價大漲調整貨幣政策</u>，原本投資人對FED升息預期機率上升的狀況改變，FED繼續維持利率政策不變的預期回升（年底前利率維持不變的機率為69.5%，2026/4/3），使公債殖利率回落，亦助股市評價提升。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國消費及就業穩定，經濟維持擴張，股市已達合理修正幅度</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">過去在經濟未衰退狀況下，重大事件造成美股合理修正幅度者在10~20%間。而<u>此次美股主要指數最大修正幅度已達9.8%至16.6%</u>(見下表)。<br><br>而美國經濟仍保持穩定，2月核心零售銷售月增0.5%優於預期；非農就業新增人數17.8萬人（預期6.5萬人）、失業率降至4.3 %亦明顯優於預期。美國消費動能及就業市場保持穩定，經濟仍維持擴張狀態。<br><br><u>台股在上週三大幅反彈前亦已回檔10.9%</u>，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線(32,328點)附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">因美伊戰爭造成美、台股波段跌幅</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">主要指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">道瓊指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">S&amp;P 500</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">Nasdaq</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">費城半導體</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">台股</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段高點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">50512</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7002</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">23988</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">8498</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">35579</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段低點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">45057</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">6317</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">20690</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7084</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">31705</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">跌幅</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-9.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-13.70%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-16.60%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.90%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：計算自速霸贏家，2026/4。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI進入推論階段，基礎設施及關鍵零組件需求持續爆發，基本面仍正向發展</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2006年AI發展雖已步入第四年，但因新的AI龐大潛在市場出現，AI使用人數及滲透率快速上升，科技相關基礎設施架構全面改變，加上算力需求指數級成長，以及Nvidia等大型科技公司主導技術發展、計畫性提升產品規格及應用層面快速拓展，AI發展及科技業成長動能仍未見減速。<br><br>而此亦繼續提供台股企業獲利成長動能綿延不絕的力量。在股市已修正之際，評價已處合理水準，在美、伊戰爭影響漸減後，股市仍將反應基本面正向發展。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"台股短線的波段跌幅為10.9%，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-99.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/07 10:15:01","startTime":"2026-04-07T10:15:01.1100000+08:00","metaTitle":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-07T10:21:00.2230000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/47.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/47.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/47.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=47","url2":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&Fund=47","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1092,"updateTime":"2026-04-17T10:03:26.5300000+08:00","guid":"04546edc-1f99-4f0b-b340-e23dd645ab14","fundID":"24","twNameFull":"復華華人世紀基金","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa Greater China Fund","ec002":"","twName":"華人世紀","pnav":"69.65","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"-0.89","changeRange":"-1.26%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">主要投資於因中國代工產業發展及龐大內需市場興起，造就長期經貿優勢而受惠之相關國家及產業，參與中國崛起的多種投資商機。</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">依政策發展方向、經濟數據、企業財報等訊息，綜合研判未來盤勢，靈活調整持股水位與內容。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2009/01/05","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"第一商業銀行","ec009":"RR5","ec012":"1.80%","ec013":"0.260%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資股票型","ec020_sort":5084,"ec022":"","ec024":"大中華地區","ec026":"股票型","ec028":"","ec030":"T+4日","ec036":"第一商業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華華人世紀基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":1,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":1,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華華人世紀基金 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"2026得獎基金","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"15169829858.000000","roi3m":"14.11%","roi6m":"31.53%","roi1y":"98.71%","roi2y":"118.15%","roi3y":"204.83%","roiLaunch":"424.00%","roiY2D":"14.11%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"1","value02":"1","value03":"0","value04":"1","manager":[{"name":"胡家菱","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":3067,"guid":"6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 08:54:53","startTime":"2026-04-23T08:54:49.4100000+08:00","metaTitle":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-23T08:58:43.1630000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63"},{"id":3065,"guid":"a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美伊戰爭對股市影響降低</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週美國雖然宣布封鎖荷姆茲海峽，但並未改變股市上漲趨勢。由於美伊可望再重啟談判，且川普釋出已近達成協議，因此股市並未再受美伊戰爭發展，以及油價大幅波動所影響；而美國聯準會(FED)經濟褐皮書，以及週初請失業救濟金人數，皆顯示美國經濟穩定。&nbsp;<br><br>AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然週四台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong><br><br><strong>總計一週（2026/4/13-4/17）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲3.2%、4.5%、6.8%、7.5%；台股週漲3.9%以36804點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑5個bps至4.26%，美元指數跌0.5%至98.2，<strong><u>油價(WTI)週跌13.2%至每桶83.85美元</u></strong>，黃金價格反彈1.9%至每盎司4879.6美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI發展及美國經濟穩定支撐股市正向趨勢</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">因預期美伊可望達成協議，雖然油價仍維持高檔震盪，戰爭結束後包括受損煉油及天然氣設施亦仍需時間恢復，但股市反應未來，且美國能源自主性高，雖然短期物價增速亦將因此上揚，但中長期對油價的預期將可望維持穩定，中長期通膨預期亦未明顯上升。上週公佈的美國3月生產者物價指數(PPI)月增0.5%、核心PPI月增0.1%，皆低於預期。<br><br>FED公布經濟褐皮書，雖因油價上漲將產生潛在物價壓力，但美國整體經濟及就業仍維持穩定，週初請失業救濟金人數降至20.7萬人低檔，再加上AI的樂觀發展，美伊戰爭對美國經濟並未產生太大影響，利率期貨亦顯市FED於年底前可望維持利率不變。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台積電樂觀展望延續，台股長期多頭趨勢不變</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台積電法說會展望持續樂觀，受AI與高效能運算需求強勁帶動，3奈米製程加速擴產並成為成長主力。第一季營收與獲利表現亮眼，稅後淨利顯著成長，毛利率達66.2%並創新高，顯示先進製程帶動獲利能力提升。公司將資本支出展望提高至約520～560億美元偏向上緣上準，用於擴充先進製程與封裝產能。展望第二季，營收預估持續成長、年增率將達四成以上，毛利率維持高檔水準。<br><br>總括而言，台積電延續對於2026年業績展望三成以上成長的預測，且表示AI需求仍非常強勁，佔台股四成以上權重的台積電，以及台灣AI關鍵供應鏈角色的獨特地位，在AI由訓練開始進入推論驅動的階段，算力需求及相關基礎設施建立仍將快速成長，未來2~3年台股企業展望仍正向發展。選擇產品規格、數量、及價格同時提升的公司，繼續長期持有，仍是合適的投資方式。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-90.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/20 09:21:33","startTime":"2026-04-20T09:21:33.3330000+08:00","metaTitle":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-20T09:26:56.7500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea"}],"news01":[{"id":3067,"guid":"6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 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復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":0,"fundSize_TWD":"333481868.845586","roi3m":"5.50%","roi6m":"13.76%","roi1y":"61.44%","roi2y":"69.21%","roi3y":"92.14%","roiLaunch":"68.70%","roiY2D":"5.50%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"胡家菱","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[{"name":"吳承恩","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"news":[{"id":3065,"guid":"a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美伊戰爭對股市影響降低</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週美國雖然宣布封鎖荷姆茲海峽，但並未改變股市上漲趨勢。由於美伊可望再重啟談判，且川普釋出已近達成協議，因此股市並未再受美伊戰爭發展，以及油價大幅波動所影響；而美國聯準會(FED)經濟褐皮書，以及週初請失業救濟金人數，皆顯示美國經濟穩定。&nbsp;<br><br>AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然週四台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong><br><br><strong>總計一週（2026/4/13-4/17）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲3.2%、4.5%、6.8%、7.5%；台股週漲3.9%以36804點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑5個bps至4.26%，美元指數跌0.5%至98.2，<strong><u>油價(WTI)週跌13.2%至每桶83.85美元</u></strong>，黃金價格反彈1.9%至每盎司4879.6美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI發展及美國經濟穩定支撐股市正向趨勢</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">因預期美伊可望達成協議，雖然油價仍維持高檔震盪，戰爭結束後包括受損煉油及天然氣設施亦仍需時間恢復，但股市反應未來，且美國能源自主性高，雖然短期物價增速亦將因此上揚，但中長期對油價的預期將可望維持穩定，中長期通膨預期亦未明顯上升。上週公佈的美國3月生產者物價指數(PPI)月增0.5%、核心PPI月增0.1%，皆低於預期。<br><br>FED公布經濟褐皮書，雖因油價上漲將產生潛在物價壓力，但美國整體經濟及就業仍維持穩定，週初請失業救濟金人數降至20.7萬人低檔，再加上AI的樂觀發展，美伊戰爭對美國經濟並未產生太大影響，利率期貨亦顯市FED於年底前可望維持利率不變。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台積電樂觀展望延續，台股長期多頭趨勢不變</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台積電法說會展望持續樂觀，受AI與高效能運算需求強勁帶動，3奈米製程加速擴產並成為成長主力。第一季營收與獲利表現亮眼，稅後淨利顯著成長，毛利率達66.2%並創新高，顯示先進製程帶動獲利能力提升。公司將資本支出展望提高至約520～560億美元偏向上緣上準，用於擴充先進製程與封裝產能。展望第二季，營收預估持續成長、年增率將達四成以上，毛利率維持高檔水準。<br><br>總括而言，台積電延續對於2026年業績展望三成以上成長的預測，且表示AI需求仍非常強勁，佔台股四成以上權重的台積電，以及台灣AI關鍵供應鏈角色的獨特地位，在AI由訓練開始進入推論驅動的階段，算力需求及相關基礎設施建立仍將快速成長，未來2~3年台股企業展望仍正向發展。選擇產品規格、數量、及價格同時提升的公司，繼續長期持有，仍是合適的投資方式。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-90.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/20 09:21:33","startTime":"2026-04-20T09:21:33.3330000+08:00","metaTitle":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-20T09:26:56.7500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea"}],"news01":[{"id":3065,"guid":"a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美伊戰爭對股市影響降低</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週美國雖然宣布封鎖荷姆茲海峽，但並未改變股市上漲趨勢。由於美伊可望再重啟談判，且川普釋出已近達成協議，因此股市並未再受美伊戰爭發展，以及油價大幅波動所影響；而美國聯準會(FED)經濟褐皮書，以及週初請失業救濟金人數，皆顯示美國經濟穩定。&nbsp;<br><br>AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然週四台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong><br><br><strong>總計一週（2026/4/13-4/17）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲3.2%、4.5%、6.8%、7.5%；台股週漲3.9%以36804點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑5個bps至4.26%，美元指數跌0.5%至98.2，<strong><u>油價(WTI)週跌13.2%至每桶83.85美元</u></strong>，黃金價格反彈1.9%至每盎司4879.6美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI發展及美國經濟穩定支撐股市正向趨勢</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">因預期美伊可望達成協議，雖然油價仍維持高檔震盪，戰爭結束後包括受損煉油及天然氣設施亦仍需時間恢復，但股市反應未來，且美國能源自主性高，雖然短期物價增速亦將因此上揚，但中長期對油價的預期將可望維持穩定，中長期通膨預期亦未明顯上升。上週公佈的美國3月生產者物價指數(PPI)月增0.5%、核心PPI月增0.1%，皆低於預期。<br><br>FED公布經濟褐皮書，雖因油價上漲將產生潛在物價壓力，但美國整體經濟及就業仍維持穩定，週初請失業救濟金人數降至20.7萬人低檔，再加上AI的樂觀發展，美伊戰爭對美國經濟並未產生太大影響，利率期貨亦顯市FED於年底前可望維持利率不變。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台積電樂觀展望延續，台股長期多頭趨勢不變</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台積電法說會展望持續樂觀，受AI與高效能運算需求強勁帶動，3奈米製程加速擴產並成為成長主力。第一季營收與獲利表現亮眼，稅後淨利顯著成長，毛利率達66.2%並創新高，顯示先進製程帶動獲利能力提升。公司將資本支出展望提高至約520～560億美元偏向上緣上準，用於擴充先進製程與封裝產能。展望第二季，營收預估持續成長、年增率將達四成以上，毛利率維持高檔水準。<br><br>總括而言，台積電延續對於2026年業績展望三成以上成長的預測，且表示AI需求仍非常強勁，佔台股四成以上權重的台積電，以及台灣AI關鍵供應鏈角色的獨特地位，在AI由訓練開始進入推論驅動的階段，算力需求及相關基礎設施建立仍將快速成長，未來2~3年台股企業展望仍正向發展。選擇產品規格、數量、及價格同時提升的公司，繼續長期持有，仍是合適的投資方式。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-90.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/20 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class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 08:54:53","startTime":"2026-04-23T08:54:49.4100000+08:00","metaTitle":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-23T08:58:43.1630000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63"},{"id":2888,"guid":"bbfbd625-0ff5-4824-8665-b83062dfed59","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"稀土政策成為中國關鍵談判籌碼，股市短線震盪屬技術性修正","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">中國於10月初宣布稀土出口管制，美國總統川普則威脅將自11月起對中國課徵100%關稅，但隨後又改口表示「別擔心」，意味著川普希望美中貿易戰仍有轉圜餘地，而如今更還有黃豆、芬太尼(fentanyl)等急需解決的問題。&nbsp;<br><br>從投資的角度觀察，美中對抗升溫，但貿易談判仍持續進行，而股市短線震盪修正，企業獲利仍支撐股市中期多頭趨勢。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">稀土政策成為中國關鍵談判籌碼</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">稀土是電動車馬達、AI伺服器、航太與半導體設備不可或缺的關鍵原料。中國掌握全球約七成的精煉產能，近期宣布的出口管制措施顯示北京正以資源作為戰略工具，對全球供應鏈形成潛在壓力。美國和歐洲近年雖持續籌建稀土磁鐵工廠，但預計尚須3年時間才能達到最大產能，短期內難以完全取代中國供應。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美中貿易談判仍持續進行</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">儘管美中雙方近期言詞強硬，但談判管道並未中斷，雙方仍在透過不同層級維持溝通。市場普遍預期，APEC 峰會期間可能成為雙方技術層或政策代表對話的契機。由於全面衝突代價過高，兩國或將採取「分領域協議」方式推進，例如將稀土、半導體及科技投資等議題分開談判，以尋求階段性妥協空間，避免情勢進一步惡化。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">股市短線震盪屬技術性修正</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美股漲多後評價偏高、資金面略顯過熱，在利空消息下出現合理回檔。但展望2026年，主要企業獲利仍預期維持雙位數成長，AI與半導體相關資本支出持續擴張，加上聯準會進入溫和降息週期，整體環境仍有利股市中期多頭趨勢延續。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI發展趨勢持續，全球各指數多同步創新高</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國科技股企業獲利預估大幅上修，主要是因為AI發展趨勢持續，金融市場對今明（2026）年科技股獲利預估大幅上修（如下表）；此外，科技業獲利仍能支撐大量資本支出，觀察美國資訊科技業自由現金流仍在創新高，顯示大量資本開支仍能透過獲利支應。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">S&amp;P500科技股、非科技股2025與2026年預估EPS今年來修正幅度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202510/20251021-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，復華投信整理，2025/9/30。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，美國與美國以外指數、科技與非科技指數近期都同步創歷史新高，雖然市場輪動顯示短期股市可能略偏過熱，投機性類股短期漲幅也明顯加速，顯示股市短期可能進入過熱區間。不過製造業景氣有助支撐股市多頭趨勢持續，整體製造業景氣仍位於相對低檔，股市多頭趨勢並無立即結束風險。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"展望2026年主要企業獲利仍預期維持雙位數成長，AI與半導體相關資本支出持續擴張，加上聯準會進入溫和降息週期，整體環境仍有利股市中期多頭趨勢延續。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202510/view-49.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,美國,全球","postTime":"2025/10/23 07:32:07","startTime":"2025-10-23T07:32:00.0730000+08:00","metaTitle":"稀土政策成為中國關鍵談判籌碼，股市短線震盪屬技術性修正｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-10-23T07:32:08.1930000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/bbfbd625-0ff5-4824-8665-b83062dfed59"}],"news01":[{"id":3067,"guid":"6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 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text-9-light\">近年來黃金價格走勢強勁，尤其是今年以來漲勢更為凌厲。截至10月20日高點，金價年內累積漲幅一度達到66%，成為全球資產市場矚目的焦點。然而，隨後金價於10月21日單日重挫近5%，創下自2013年4月以來最大單日跌幅（圖一），使市場對黃金多頭的延續性產生疑慮。&nbsp;<br><br>展望後市，隨著金價漲勢已大，投資人開始關注黃金上行動能是否仍具支撐力。本文將從通膨脫鉤、去美元化趨勢、技術及籌碼面等面向，剖析金價後市的關鍵驅動與潛在風險。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖一：2009年以來，黃金現貨價格走勢圖</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202512/20251201-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2009/1/1~2025/10/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">黃金與通膨逐漸脫鉤，傳統抗通膨角色轉變</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">黃金因具備稀缺性、供應有限且無信用風險等特性，長期以來被視為對抗通膨的首選資產。在貨幣實質購買力下降時，黃金仍能維持實質價值，因此歷史上金價與通膨變化往往呈現高度連動。舉例而言，當通膨壓力升溫、抗通膨需求上升時，金價通常隨之走高。從圖二可觀察到，過去黃金價格與美國抗通膨債券（TIPS）的走勢大致一致，顯示兩者具有明顯相關性。&nbsp;<br><br>然而，自2022年以來，這樣的關聯性已明顯減弱。當時美國為抑制通膨，於2022年3月至2023年7月間大幅升息，使通膨率（CPI）從2022年6月的高點9.0%下降至2025年9月的3.0%，美國抗通膨債券價格也從約130美元回落至110美元。依過往經驗，金價理應同步受壓，但實際上卻逆勢上揚，突破每盎司4,000美元，創下歷史新高。&nbsp;<br><br>這一現象顯示，黃金的上漲動能已不再主要來自通膨預期，而是反映全球金融與政治格局的深層變化。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖二：iShares抗通膨債券ETF與黃金現貨價格走勢圖</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202512/20251201-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2009/1/1~2025/10/31。&nbsp;<br>註：美國抗通膨債券(Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, TIPS)是一種美國國債，其票息及到期本金會隨著通膨指數而調整，若通膨率上升，投資者可獲得的收益亦跟著上升，因而常被用於對抗通膨風險。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">黃金：去美元化背景下的價值儲存工具</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">推動本波金價上漲的關鍵之一，是國際金融秩序重組下的「去美元化」趨勢。2022年俄羅斯全面入侵烏克蘭，美歐對俄羅斯實施金融制裁並凍結約3,000億美元外匯儲備，此舉促使各國央行重新評估外匯結構與美元資產安全性。為提升金融自主性、降低對美元依賴，許多國家積極增加黃金儲備，帶動新一波央行購金潮。&nbsp;<br><br>同時，美國財政赤字長期擴大，加上川普政策難以預測，削弱市場對美元穩定性的信心，進一步推升各國配置黃金的意願。黃金因此重新被視為跨國金融安全與主權儲備的核心資產。&nbsp;<br><br>根據世界黃金協會（WGC）統計，2024年全球央行淨購金量達1,045噸，較2020年的273噸大幅增加，主要買家包括中國、俄羅斯、印度及中東產油國等。根據國際貨幣基金（IMF）資料進行推估，2024年底全球央行儲備中，美元佔比自2014年的55.6%降至43.9%，而黃金佔比則由8.6%升至18.3%（圖三），顯示去美元化趨勢持續深化，黃金成為最直接的受惠資產。&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，黃金的角色已從傳統抗通膨工具轉變為全球金融體系中的戰略性資產。其長期需求來自各國對國際儲備格局變化的布局，而中東局勢緊張、美中科技與貿易摩擦等地緣政治風險，更強化了市場的避險買盤，使黃金在全球不確定性升溫時，依然是最具共識的避風港。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖三：全球國際儲備組成</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202512/20251201-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：根據IMF 2014年報、IMF 2024年報之相關資料進行估算。&nbsp;<br>註：其他項目為SDR（Special Drawing Rights）與IMF準備頭寸（cash position）。SDR是IMF創設的一種「計價單位」，代表由美元、歐元、人民幣、日圓與英鎊組成的一籃子主要貨幣的價值。各國可將SDR兌換為主要貨幣或用於償還對IMF的債務，是IMF分配給會員國的一項可動用資金的「權利」；IMF準備頭寸則為各國在IMF的可動用存款，必要時可立即提取資金。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">金價在經歷強勁上漲後進入技術性整理階段</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">雖然金價長線結構性支撐仍在，但短期急漲後的評價與籌碼壓力逐漸浮現。10月份金價自高點回檔逾9%，主要受到獲利了結賣壓影響，連續上漲的格局暫告中斷。&nbsp;<br>從技術面觀察，金價目前位於每盎司4,000美元的整數關卡與歷史高點附近，追價意願趨緩，成交量與資金動能雙雙降溫，市場情緒趨於觀望。以全球最大黃金ETF──SPDR Gold Shares（GLD）為例，近期成交量已由10月高峰明顯回落（圖四）；全球黃金ETF資金流向亦由連續數月淨流入轉為小幅淨流出（圖五），顯示短線資金逐步退場。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖四：SPDR Gold Shares（GLD）成交量</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202512/20251201-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/1/1~2025/10/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖五：全球黃金ETF資金淨流量（週）</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202512/20251201-5.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：World Gold Council（WGC），2025/10/24，週資料。&nbsp;<br>註：WGC統計的黃金ETF淨流量以「公噸」為單位，原因在於此類ETF是持有實體黃金存放於保管庫。當投資人申購或贖回時，都會牽涉到實體黃金重量的增減，以重量衡量較能真實反映市場買賣與實際黃金需求。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">黃金結構性需求支撐長線表現，惟波動較大，資產配置宜均衡分散</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">綜觀而言，黃金在全球貨幣與地緣政治格局轉變下，其角色已從傳統抗通膨工具，逐步轉型為兼具主權儲備與避險屬性的戰略性資產。各國央行持續增加黃金儲備，美元長期信任基礎亦面臨挑戰，為金價奠定了長期上行的結構性支撐。&nbsp;<br><br>然而，黃金屬於波動性較高的商品資產，價格易受美元走勢、利率預期、地緣政治與市場情緒等因素影響而劇烈波動。近期金價在強勁上漲後進入整理階段，技術面與籌碼面壓力仍待消化。投資人在進行資產配置時，應審慎評估風險承受度，避免資金過度集中於單一資產。建議採取區域與產業均衡的多元資產配置策略，以分散風險。&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">主要股債市展望及說明</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">已開發股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">美國勞動市場小幅放緩但整體景氣維持溫和增長，通膨增速略低於預期，Fed將維持降息趨勢不變。企業財報持續優於預期、獲利預估持續調升、科技業資本支出加速，有利中期股市多頭趨勢延續，不過目前以美股為主的已開發股市評價偏高，市場情緒與技術面略為過熱，短期內仍可能出現震盪。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">新興股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">新興市場股市企業獲利預估穩健增長，評價仍維持合理水準。然而，近期股市多已接近歷史高位，需留意短期內可能出現的漲多回檔風險，並密切關注川普關稅政策的後續發展對新興市場的潛在影響。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">信用債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">美國勞動市場持續降溫，加上各信用債利差已處在歷史低檔，中期來看信用債市難以創造太多超額報酬，不過考量到信用債殖利率大多仍位在合理水準，且Fed已重啟降息循環，預期將有助於支撐信用債基金總報酬表現。&nbsp;<br><br>其中，非投資等級債指數因存續期間較短、利率敏感度低，預期將有較佳的孳息效率，而新興市場債指數因存續期間較長，走勢往往較非投資等級債指數震盪，不過在當前利率風險有限且新興債指數殖利率仍高的環境下，故預期也將隨孳息而震盪向上。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">投資等級債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">Fed連續第二次會議降息1碼，並於12月起停止縮表，後續降息速度將主要取決於勞動市場狀況，惟此前的政府關門導致經濟數據缺乏，可能會令部分票委在後續行動上較為謹慎，但無論如何，長線降息的大方向將限制債市利率風險，加上當前投資等級債殖利率仍較高，預期投資等級債基金總報酬表現將有所支撐。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">商品市場</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">OPEC+自4月起大幅增產，累計已達每日273.9萬桶，完全抵銷了2023年的減產承諾，今明兩年全球石油供過於求的可能性上升，預期將抑制油價的上漲空間。金價中長期仍受惠於各國央行增持趨勢，但短期漲幅過大後，震盪亦可能開始加大。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>投資新興市場應留意政治風險與經濟情勢變動之影響，波動性與風險程度可能較高。</strong>註：美國投資等級公司債係指彭博美國投資等級公司債指數、美國非投資等級公司債係指彭博美國非投資等級公司債指數、新興美元主權債係指彭博新興美元債指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。本資料僅供參考，不代表投資績效之保證。投資人申購基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不代表基金之績效，基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"近年來黃金價格走勢強勁，主要受全球「去美元化」趨勢與國際金融秩序重組推動。各國央行持續大幅增持黃金，美元長期信用基礎受到挑戰，為金價提供強大的結構性上行支撐。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202512/view-73.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,全球","postTime":"2025/12/02 08:41:36","startTime":"2025-12-02T08:41:24.3400000+08:00","metaTitle":"從抗通膨走向去美元化：金價的長線支撐與短線隱憂｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-12-02T08:41:37.5930000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/83319bb5-4f97-4118-8700-6e62270ec314"}],"news01":[{"id":2932,"guid":"83319bb5-4f97-4118-8700-6e62270ec314","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"從抗通膨走向去美元化：金價的長線支撐與短線隱憂","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">近年來黃金價格走勢強勁，尤其是今年以來漲勢更為凌厲。截至10月20日高點，金價年內累積漲幅一度達到66%，成為全球資產市場矚目的焦點。然而，隨後金價於10月21日單日重挫近5%，創下自2013年4月以來最大單日跌幅（圖一），使市場對黃金多頭的延續性產生疑慮。&nbsp;<br><br>展望後市，隨著金價漲勢已大，投資人開始關注黃金上行動能是否仍具支撐力。本文將從通膨脫鉤、去美元化趨勢、技術及籌碼面等面向，剖析金價後市的關鍵驅動與潛在風險。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖一：2009年以來，黃金現貨價格走勢圖</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202512/20251201-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2009/1/1~2025/10/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">黃金與通膨逐漸脫鉤，傳統抗通膨角色轉變</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">黃金因具備稀缺性、供應有限且無信用風險等特性，長期以來被視為對抗通膨的首選資產。在貨幣實質購買力下降時，黃金仍能維持實質價值，因此歷史上金價與通膨變化往往呈現高度連動。舉例而言，當通膨壓力升溫、抗通膨需求上升時，金價通常隨之走高。從圖二可觀察到，過去黃金價格與美國抗通膨債券（TIPS）的走勢大致一致，顯示兩者具有明顯相關性。&nbsp;<br><br>然而，自2022年以來，這樣的關聯性已明顯減弱。當時美國為抑制通膨，於2022年3月至2023年7月間大幅升息，使通膨率（CPI）從2022年6月的高點9.0%下降至2025年9月的3.0%，美國抗通膨債券價格也從約130美元回落至110美元。依過往經驗，金價理應同步受壓，但實際上卻逆勢上揚，突破每盎司4,000美元，創下歷史新高。&nbsp;<br><br>這一現象顯示，黃金的上漲動能已不再主要來自通膨預期，而是反映全球金融與政治格局的深層變化。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖二：iShares抗通膨債券ETF與黃金現貨價格走勢圖</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202512/20251201-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2009/1/1~2025/10/31。&nbsp;<br>註：美國抗通膨債券(Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, TIPS)是一種美國國債，其票息及到期本金會隨著通膨指數而調整，若通膨率上升，投資者可獲得的收益亦跟著上升，因而常被用於對抗通膨風險。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">黃金：去美元化背景下的價值儲存工具</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">推動本波金價上漲的關鍵之一，是國際金融秩序重組下的「去美元化」趨勢。2022年俄羅斯全面入侵烏克蘭，美歐對俄羅斯實施金融制裁並凍結約3,000億美元外匯儲備，此舉促使各國央行重新評估外匯結構與美元資產安全性。為提升金融自主性、降低對美元依賴，許多國家積極增加黃金儲備，帶動新一波央行購金潮。&nbsp;<br><br>同時，美國財政赤字長期擴大，加上川普政策難以預測，削弱市場對美元穩定性的信心，進一步推升各國配置黃金的意願。黃金因此重新被視為跨國金融安全與主權儲備的核心資產。&nbsp;<br><br>根據世界黃金協會（WGC）統計，2024年全球央行淨購金量達1,045噸，較2020年的273噸大幅增加，主要買家包括中國、俄羅斯、印度及中東產油國等。根據國際貨幣基金（IMF）資料進行推估，2024年底全球央行儲備中，美元佔比自2014年的55.6%降至43.9%，而黃金佔比則由8.6%升至18.3%（圖三），顯示去美元化趨勢持續深化，黃金成為最直接的受惠資產。&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，黃金的角色已從傳統抗通膨工具轉變為全球金融體系中的戰略性資產。其長期需求來自各國對國際儲備格局變化的布局，而中東局勢緊張、美中科技與貿易摩擦等地緣政治風險，更強化了市場的避險買盤，使黃金在全球不確定性升溫時，依然是最具共識的避風港。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖三：全球國際儲備組成</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202512/20251201-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：根據IMF 2014年報、IMF 2024年報之相關資料進行估算。&nbsp;<br>註：其他項目為SDR（Special Drawing Rights）與IMF準備頭寸（cash position）。SDR是IMF創設的一種「計價單位」，代表由美元、歐元、人民幣、日圓與英鎊組成的一籃子主要貨幣的價值。各國可將SDR兌換為主要貨幣或用於償還對IMF的債務，是IMF分配給會員國的一項可動用資金的「權利」；IMF準備頭寸則為各國在IMF的可動用存款，必要時可立即提取資金。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">金價在經歷強勁上漲後進入技術性整理階段</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">雖然金價長線結構性支撐仍在，但短期急漲後的評價與籌碼壓力逐漸浮現。10月份金價自高點回檔逾9%，主要受到獲利了結賣壓影響，連續上漲的格局暫告中斷。&nbsp;<br>從技術面觀察，金價目前位於每盎司4,000美元的整數關卡與歷史高點附近，追價意願趨緩，成交量與資金動能雙雙降溫，市場情緒趨於觀望。以全球最大黃金ETF──SPDR Gold Shares（GLD）為例，近期成交量已由10月高峰明顯回落（圖四）；全球黃金ETF資金流向亦由連續數月淨流入轉為小幅淨流出（圖五），顯示短線資金逐步退場。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖四：SPDR Gold Shares（GLD）成交量</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202512/20251201-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/1/1~2025/10/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖五：全球黃金ETF資金淨流量（週）</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202512/20251201-5.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：World Gold Council（WGC），2025/10/24，週資料。&nbsp;<br>註：WGC統計的黃金ETF淨流量以「公噸」為單位，原因在於此類ETF是持有實體黃金存放於保管庫。當投資人申購或贖回時，都會牽涉到實體黃金重量的增減，以重量衡量較能真實反映市場買賣與實際黃金需求。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">黃金結構性需求支撐長線表現，惟波動較大，資產配置宜均衡分散</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">綜觀而言，黃金在全球貨幣與地緣政治格局轉變下，其角色已從傳統抗通膨工具，逐步轉型為兼具主權儲備與避險屬性的戰略性資產。各國央行持續增加黃金儲備，美元長期信任基礎亦面臨挑戰，為金價奠定了長期上行的結構性支撐。&nbsp;<br><br>然而，黃金屬於波動性較高的商品資產，價格易受美元走勢、利率預期、地緣政治與市場情緒等因素影響而劇烈波動。近期金價在強勁上漲後進入整理階段，技術面與籌碼面壓力仍待消化。投資人在進行資產配置時，應審慎評估風險承受度，避免資金過度集中於單一資產。建議採取區域與產業均衡的多元資產配置策略，以分散風險。&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">主要股債市展望及說明</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">已開發股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">美國勞動市場小幅放緩但整體景氣維持溫和增長，通膨增速略低於預期，Fed將維持降息趨勢不變。企業財報持續優於預期、獲利預估持續調升、科技業資本支出加速，有利中期股市多頭趨勢延續，不過目前以美股為主的已開發股市評價偏高，市場情緒與技術面略為過熱，短期內仍可能出現震盪。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">新興股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">新興市場股市企業獲利預估穩健增長，評價仍維持合理水準。然而，近期股市多已接近歷史高位，需留意短期內可能出現的漲多回檔風險，並密切關注川普關稅政策的後續發展對新興市場的潛在影響。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">信用債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">美國勞動市場持續降溫，加上各信用債利差已處在歷史低檔，中期來看信用債市難以創造太多超額報酬，不過考量到信用債殖利率大多仍位在合理水準，且Fed已重啟降息循環，預期將有助於支撐信用債基金總報酬表現。&nbsp;<br><br>其中，非投資等級債指數因存續期間較短、利率敏感度低，預期將有較佳的孳息效率，而新興市場債指數因存續期間較長，走勢往往較非投資等級債指數震盪，不過在當前利率風險有限且新興債指數殖利率仍高的環境下，故預期也將隨孳息而震盪向上。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">投資等級債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">Fed連續第二次會議降息1碼，並於12月起停止縮表，後續降息速度將主要取決於勞動市場狀況，惟此前的政府關門導致經濟數據缺乏，可能會令部分票委在後續行動上較為謹慎，但無論如何，長線降息的大方向將限制債市利率風險，加上當前投資等級債殖利率仍較高，預期投資等級債基金總報酬表現將有所支撐。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">商品市場</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">OPEC+自4月起大幅增產，累計已達每日273.9萬桶，完全抵銷了2023年的減產承諾，今明兩年全球石油供過於求的可能性上升，預期將抑制油價的上漲空間。金價中長期仍受惠於各國央行增持趨勢，但短期漲幅過大後，震盪亦可能開始加大。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>投資新興市場應留意政治風險與經濟情勢變動之影響，波動性與風險程度可能較高。</strong>註：美國投資等級公司債係指彭博美國投資等級公司債指數、美國非投資等級公司債係指彭博美國非投資等級公司債指數、新興美元主權債係指彭博新興美元債指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。本資料僅供參考，不代表投資績效之保證。投資人申購基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不代表基金之績效，基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"近年來黃金價格走勢強勁，主要受全球「去美元化」趨勢與國際金融秩序重組推動。各國央行持續大幅增持黃金，美元長期信用基礎受到挑戰，為金價提供強大的結構性上行支撐。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202512/view-73.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,全球","postTime":"2025/12/02 08:41:36","startTime":"2025-12-02T08:41:24.3400000+08:00","metaTitle":"從抗通膨走向去美元化：金價的長線支撐與短線隱憂｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-12-02T08:41:37.5930000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/83319bb5-4f97-4118-8700-6e62270ec314"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/60.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/60.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"","url2":"","file01":"/docupload/download/help/K1.pdf"},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"2016/04/15","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1016,"updateTime":"2025-04-30T08:59:01.2300000+08:00","guid":"a2aeda5e-7d75-4d1e-b13b-e0df2a75d5ab","fundID":"12","twNameFull":"復華全球平衡基金-新臺幣","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa Global Balanced Fund-TWD","ec002":"(本基金有相當比重投資於非投資等級之高風險債券)","twName":"全球平衡新臺幣","pnav":"54.83","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"-0.92","changeRange":"-1.65%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">網羅全球多元投資主題，參與多重趨勢上漲契機，挖掘成長機會大的潛力股，並避免投資風險過度集中於單一產業、趨勢或國家。</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">透過股票及債券部位的彈性調整配置，因應景氣循環波動，追求長期績效成長。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2004/01/02","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"玉山商業銀行","ec009":"RR3","ec012":"1.50%","ec013":"0.250%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資平衡型","ec020_sort":5085,"ec022":"","ec024":"全球","ec026":"平衡型","ec027":"","ec028":"","ec030":"T+4日","ec036":"玉山商業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華全球平衡基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec040":"每2、4、6月","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":1,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":1,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華全球平衡基金-新臺幣 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"打造第二筆退休金","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"16504799733.000000","roi3m":"8.74%","roi6m":"24.09%","roi1y":"63.77%","roi2y":"48.36%","roi3y":"80.17%","roiLaunch":"335.30%","roiY2D":"8.74%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"1","value02":"1","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"胡家菱","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[{"name":"陳俊諺","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"news":[{"id":3067,"guid":"6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 08:54:53","startTime":"2026-04-23T08:54:49.4100000+08:00","metaTitle":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-23T08:58:43.1630000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63"},{"id":3065,"guid":"a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美伊戰爭對股市影響降低</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週美國雖然宣布封鎖荷姆茲海峽，但並未改變股市上漲趨勢。由於美伊可望再重啟談判，且川普釋出已近達成協議，因此股市並未再受美伊戰爭發展，以及油價大幅波動所影響；而美國聯準會(FED)經濟褐皮書，以及週初請失業救濟金人數，皆顯示美國經濟穩定。&nbsp;<br><br>AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然週四台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong><br><br><strong>總計一週（2026/4/13-4/17）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲3.2%、4.5%、6.8%、7.5%；台股週漲3.9%以36804點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑5個bps至4.26%，美元指數跌0.5%至98.2，<strong><u>油價(WTI)週跌13.2%至每桶83.85美元</u></strong>，黃金價格反彈1.9%至每盎司4879.6美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI發展及美國經濟穩定支撐股市正向趨勢</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">因預期美伊可望達成協議，雖然油價仍維持高檔震盪，戰爭結束後包括受損煉油及天然氣設施亦仍需時間恢復，但股市反應未來，且美國能源自主性高，雖然短期物價增速亦將因此上揚，但中長期對油價的預期將可望維持穩定，中長期通膨預期亦未明顯上升。上週公佈的美國3月生產者物價指數(PPI)月增0.5%、核心PPI月增0.1%，皆低於預期。<br><br>FED公布經濟褐皮書，雖因油價上漲將產生潛在物價壓力，但美國整體經濟及就業仍維持穩定，週初請失業救濟金人數降至20.7萬人低檔，再加上AI的樂觀發展，美伊戰爭對美國經濟並未產生太大影響，利率期貨亦顯市FED於年底前可望維持利率不變。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台積電樂觀展望延續，台股長期多頭趨勢不變</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台積電法說會展望持續樂觀，受AI與高效能運算需求強勁帶動，3奈米製程加速擴產並成為成長主力。第一季營收與獲利表現亮眼，稅後淨利顯著成長，毛利率達66.2%並創新高，顯示先進製程帶動獲利能力提升。公司將資本支出展望提高至約520～560億美元偏向上緣上準，用於擴充先進製程與封裝產能。展望第二季，營收預估持續成長、年增率將達四成以上，毛利率維持高檔水準。<br><br>總括而言，台積電延續對於2026年業績展望三成以上成長的預測，且表示AI需求仍非常強勁，佔台股四成以上權重的台積電，以及台灣AI關鍵供應鏈角色的獨特地位，在AI由訓練開始進入推論驅動的階段，算力需求及相關基礎設施建立仍將快速成長，未來2~3年台股企業展望仍正向發展。選擇產品規格、數量、及價格同時提升的公司，繼續長期持有，仍是合適的投資方式。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-90.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/20 09:21:33","startTime":"2026-04-20T09:21:33.3330000+08:00","metaTitle":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-20T09:26:56.7500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea"}],"news01":[{"id":3067,"guid":"6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 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style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">依景氣循環位階調整資產配置組合，運用平衡型基金股債靈活配置特性，在追逐報酬的同時控制下檔風險。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2006/04/17","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"永豐商業銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"1.50%","ec013":"0.180%","ec014":"2.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資平衡型","ec020_sort":5085,"ec022":"","ec024":"亞太地區","ec026":"平衡型","ec028":"","ec030":"T+4日","ec036":"永豐商業銀行世貿分行","ec037":"復華亞太平衡基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華亞太平衡基金 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"1298683790.000000","roi3m":"13.66%","roi6m":"31.02%","roi1y":"61.87%","roi2y":"48.10%","roi3y":"66.26%","roiLaunch":"145.40%","roiY2D":"13.66%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"吳承恩","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[{"name":"黃俊瑞","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"news":[{"id":3053,"guid":"af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美、伊表態結束戰爭意願，FED升息預期暫消退，股市觸底反彈</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市在美、伊戰爭預期可能將結束，伊朗總統亦表示願意結束戰爭，雖然川普演說表示將繼續攻擊伊朗，直至與伊朗達成協議、油價繼續彈升，但伊朗開始放寬通行荷莫茲海峽條件，使已因美伊戰爭修正近一個月的股市風險情緒好轉，美股波段下跌10%左右後出現反彈。<br><br>台股在週一及週二強勢股補跌後，搭配美、伊戰爭可望近尾聲預期，以及週二台股融資餘額劇減百億台幣以上，週三台股亦現大幅反彈。<br><br>而美國聯準會(FED)主席Powell暗示，短期不會因油價大漲改變貨幣政策立場，使升息預期減弱，美國公債殖利率回落，亦降低了抑制股市的力量。<br><br>總計<strong>一週（2026/3/30-4/3）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲1.7%、3.0%、4.1%、5.0%，台股下跌1.6%以32572點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑9個bps至4.35%，美元指數持平於100.18，<u>油價(WTI)再漲11.9%至每桶111.54美元</u>，黃金價格反彈3.4%至每盎司4679.70美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">股市風險情緒好轉觸底反彈，戰爭延續時間及油價走勢，仍為關注焦點</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美伊戰爭造成股市下跌，主要即來自於伊朗封鎖荷莫茲海峽造成油價大漲，引發通膨及各國央行可能升息擔憂。在美、伊皆有結束戰爭的意願，以及荷莫茲海峽船隻通行數開始上升下，股市風險情緒獲得改善。<br><br>不過，短期<u>油價仍因為戰火未停歇持續走高</u>，美伊戰爭是否能如川普所言於二至三週內結束，以及荷莫茲海峽的封鎖情況，攸關油價及未來通膨發展及後續對經濟的影響。<br><br>而上週FED主席<u>Powell亦表示不會因短期油價大漲調整貨幣政策</u>，原本投資人對FED升息預期機率上升的狀況改變，FED繼續維持利率政策不變的預期回升（年底前利率維持不變的機率為69.5%，2026/4/3），使公債殖利率回落，亦助股市評價提升。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國消費及就業穩定，經濟維持擴張，股市已達合理修正幅度</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">過去在經濟未衰退狀況下，重大事件造成美股合理修正幅度者在10~20%間。而<u>此次美股主要指數最大修正幅度已達9.8%至16.6%</u>(見下表)。<br><br>而美國經濟仍保持穩定，2月核心零售銷售月增0.5%優於預期；非農就業新增人數17.8萬人（預期6.5萬人）、失業率降至4.3 %亦明顯優於預期。美國消費動能及就業市場保持穩定，經濟仍維持擴張狀態。<br><br><u>台股在上週三大幅反彈前亦已回檔10.9%</u>，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線(32,328點)附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">因美伊戰爭造成美、台股波段跌幅</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">主要指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">道瓊指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">S&amp;P 500</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">Nasdaq</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">費城半導體</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">台股</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段高點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">50512</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7002</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">23988</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">8498</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">35579</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段低點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">45057</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">6317</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">20690</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7084</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">31705</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">跌幅</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-9.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-13.70%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-16.60%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.90%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：計算自速霸贏家，2026/4。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI進入推論階段，基礎設施及關鍵零組件需求持續爆發，基本面仍正向發展</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2006年AI發展雖已步入第四年，但因新的AI龐大潛在市場出現，AI使用人數及滲透率快速上升，科技相關基礎設施架構全面改變，加上算力需求指數級成長，以及Nvidia等大型科技公司主導技術發展、計畫性提升產品規格及應用層面快速拓展，AI發展及科技業成長動能仍未見減速。<br><br>而此亦繼續提供台股企業獲利成長動能綿延不絕的力量。在股市已修正之際，評價已處合理水準，在美、伊戰爭影響漸減後，股市仍將反應基本面正向發展。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"台股短線的波段跌幅為10.9%，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-99.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/07 10:15:01","startTime":"2026-04-07T10:15:01.1100000+08:00","metaTitle":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-07T10:21:00.2230000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c"},{"id":2915,"guid":"f6ab3d01-f6c4-43dc-bac6-eaa0bc78b5cc","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"股市評價調整，惟長多趨勢仍延續","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市呈現震盪表現，雖然美國國會終於通過了政府支出法案，暫時結束了史上最長時間的美國政府關門，但因擔心缺乏及延遲了經濟數據公布，恐影響美國聯準會(Fed)再度降息決策，且部分Fed官員發表鷹派談話，<strong>使12月降息機率降低</strong>。<br><br>此外，軟銀全數出脫Nvidia持股，<strong>AI樂觀發展是否已使股價評價過高擔憂</strong>等因素，使股市獲利了結賣壓出現並呈現震盪。各別公司亦因<strong>財報公布</strong>，股價表現亦有明顯差異。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong><br><br><strong>總計一週(2025/11/10-11/14）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別變化+0.3%、+0.1%、-0.5%、-2.3%，台股一週下跌0.9%以27397點收盤。</strong>美國10年期公債殖利率一週反彈3個bps至4.1%，美元指數小跌0.3%至99.29，油價(WTI)則一週小漲0.3%。<br><br>影響股市主要因素包括：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">12月Fed是否降息出現變數，但仍朝寬鬆方向前進</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於先前美國政府關門，使9至10月美國就業數據皆未如期公布，使得Fed缺乏決策依據，加上目前美國消費支出仍穩定，投資亦在AI帶動下維持一定熱度，使得美國經濟成長率仍維持在3%左右的成長速度，雖然就業市場降溫趨緩，但使得Fed成員對於12/10是否降息意見出現分歧。<br><br>不過，目前美國利率相對其他國家仍屬偏高，且就業市場及非AI產業景氣表現仍然偏弱，物價增速則仍符合預期，Fed亦將自12月起停止量化緊縮政策，Fed貨幣政策朝寬鬆方向前進仍然不變。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI展望樂觀，評價修正非泡沫調整</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">AI樂觀發展使得美國股市評價上升，目前美股2025年及2026年預估本益比分別為25.5倍及22.1倍(Bloomberg，2025/11/7)，2026年預估本益比高於MSCI全球股市的18.8倍及台股的17.4倍。<br><br>美股較高益比原因，主要來自於美股大型科技股的高獲利成長，所產生的高評價。<br><br>但基於下述因素，短期AI相關公司股價震盪，應屬於短期評價修正，而非將出現泡沫調整，主要原因包括：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">大型科技公司營運模式穩固</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">具有龐大的客戶基礎及現金流，大舉投資AI，主要為取得市場領先地位，未來產生高營運風險可能性仍不高。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">AI仍處發展初期階段</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">企業使用滲透率目前仍僅約10%至15%，且從文字、圖形、影像應用的發展，再加上使用人數不斷上升，會需要更多的算力及儲存等基礎設施投資。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">目前AI發展已反應於企業獲利之上</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">預估2026年整體企業獲利仍將成長10%至20%間，企業獲利高成長仍支撐股市評價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/4.svg\" alt=\"\">Fed仍處降息循環中</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">不論是評價持續修正，或是泡沫調整期，目前出現可能性皆較低。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"部分Fed官員發表鷹派談話，使12月降息機率降低，另AI樂觀發展是否已使股價評價過高擔憂等因素，使股市獲利了結賣壓出現呈現震盪。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202511/view-42.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2025/11/17 10:33:48","startTime":"2025-11-17T10:33:48.0730000+08:00","metaTitle":"股市評價調整，惟長多趨勢仍延續｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-11-17T10:40:42.9970000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/f6ab3d01-f6c4-43dc-bac6-eaa0bc78b5cc"}],"news01":[{"id":3053,"guid":"af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美、伊表態結束戰爭意願，FED升息預期暫消退，股市觸底反彈</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市在美、伊戰爭預期可能將結束，伊朗總統亦表示願意結束戰爭，雖然川普演說表示將繼續攻擊伊朗，直至與伊朗達成協議、油價繼續彈升，但伊朗開始放寬通行荷莫茲海峽條件，使已因美伊戰爭修正近一個月的股市風險情緒好轉，美股波段下跌10%左右後出現反彈。<br><br>台股在週一及週二強勢股補跌後，搭配美、伊戰爭可望近尾聲預期，以及週二台股融資餘額劇減百億台幣以上，週三台股亦現大幅反彈。<br><br>而美國聯準會(FED)主席Powell暗示，短期不會因油價大漲改變貨幣政策立場，使升息預期減弱，美國公債殖利率回落，亦降低了抑制股市的力量。<br><br>總計<strong>一週（2026/3/30-4/3）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲1.7%、3.0%、4.1%、5.0%，台股下跌1.6%以32572點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑9個bps至4.35%，美元指數持平於100.18，<u>油價(WTI)再漲11.9%至每桶111.54美元</u>，黃金價格反彈3.4%至每盎司4679.70美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">股市風險情緒好轉觸底反彈，戰爭延續時間及油價走勢，仍為關注焦點</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美伊戰爭造成股市下跌，主要即來自於伊朗封鎖荷莫茲海峽造成油價大漲，引發通膨及各國央行可能升息擔憂。在美、伊皆有結束戰爭的意願，以及荷莫茲海峽船隻通行數開始上升下，股市風險情緒獲得改善。<br><br>不過，短期<u>油價仍因為戰火未停歇持續走高</u>，美伊戰爭是否能如川普所言於二至三週內結束，以及荷莫茲海峽的封鎖情況，攸關油價及未來通膨發展及後續對經濟的影響。<br><br>而上週FED主席<u>Powell亦表示不會因短期油價大漲調整貨幣政策</u>，原本投資人對FED升息預期機率上升的狀況改變，FED繼續維持利率政策不變的預期回升（年底前利率維持不變的機率為69.5%，2026/4/3），使公債殖利率回落，亦助股市評價提升。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國消費及就業穩定，經濟維持擴張，股市已達合理修正幅度</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">過去在經濟未衰退狀況下，重大事件造成美股合理修正幅度者在10~20%間。而<u>此次美股主要指數最大修正幅度已達9.8%至16.6%</u>(見下表)。<br><br>而美國經濟仍保持穩定，2月核心零售銷售月增0.5%優於預期；非農就業新增人數17.8萬人（預期6.5萬人）、失業率降至4.3 %亦明顯優於預期。美國消費動能及就業市場保持穩定，經濟仍維持擴張狀態。<br><br><u>台股在上週三大幅反彈前亦已回檔10.9%</u>，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線(32,328點)附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">因美伊戰爭造成美、台股波段跌幅</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">主要指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">道瓊指數</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">S&amp;P 500</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">Nasdaq</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">費城半導體</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">台股</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段高點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">50512</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7002</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">23988</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">8498</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">35579</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">波段低點</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">45057</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">6317</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">20690</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7084</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">31705</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">跌幅</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-9.80%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-13.70%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-16.60%</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">-10.90%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：計算自速霸贏家，2026/4。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI進入推論階段，基礎設施及關鍵零組件需求持續爆發，基本面仍正向發展</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2006年AI發展雖已步入第四年，但因新的AI龐大潛在市場出現，AI使用人數及滲透率快速上升，科技相關基礎設施架構全面改變，加上算力需求指數級成長，以及Nvidia等大型科技公司主導技術發展、計畫性提升產品規格及應用層面快速拓展，AI發展及科技業成長動能仍未見減速。<br><br>而此亦繼續提供台股企業獲利成長動能綿延不絕的力量。在股市已修正之際，評價已處合理水準，在美、伊戰爭影響漸減後，股市仍將反應基本面正向發展。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"台股短線的波段跌幅為10.9%，修正幅度與美股主要指數相當，但維持於季線附近支撐，仍相對強勢，主要在於受惠AI趨勢，台股企業獲利持續上修所致。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-99.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/07 10:15:01","startTime":"2026-04-07T10:15:01.1100000+08:00","metaTitle":"反應美伊戰爭修正達合理幅度後，股市觸底反彈｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-07T10:21:00.2230000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/af42abfc-65dd-42ac-aef7-68781c78ef5c"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/16.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/16.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=16","url2":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&Fund=16","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1103,"updateTime":"2023-11-01T15:46:03.1670000+08:00","guid":"96d0a6e7-a7fb-48d1-a6dd-4637bf6f76ca","fundID":"118","twNameFull":"復華二年半至五年機動到期A級債券美元基金","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa 2.5-5 Year Maturity A-Rated Bond Fund USD","ec002":"","twName":"二年半至五年A級債券美元","pnav":"11.2839","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"-0.0079","changeRange":"-0.07%","qnav_l":4,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">投資於信用評等A 級以上之優質債券及成熟市場債券，提供投資人較低信用風險的債券資產組合</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">機動到期：基金成立次日起屆滿五年到期，但設有提前結算機制，可能因報酬達標而提前出場（啟動條件為：基金成立次日起滿二年六個月後，當月最後五個營業日淨值皆達11.0000(含)以上。其後每月檢視）</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2023/11/01","ec006":"美元","ec010":"永豐商業銀行","ec009":"RR2","ec012":"0.50%~2.50%","ec013":"0.12%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資債券型","ec020_sort":5086,"ec022":"","ec024":"全球","ec026":"債券型","ec030":"T+7日","ec036":"永豐商業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華二年半至五年機動到期A級債券美元基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"","ec407":"","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華二年半至五年機動到期A級債券美元基金","metaDescription":"投資於信用評等A 級以上之優質債券及成熟市場債券，提供投資人較低信用風險的債券資產組合\n機動到期：基金成立次日起屆滿五年到期，但設有提前結算機制，可能因報酬達標而提前出場（啟動條件為：基金成立次日起滿二年六個月後，當月最後五個營業日淨值皆達11.0000(含)以上。其後每月檢視）","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":0,"fundSize_TWD":"633557460.229200","roi3m":"0.11%","roi6m":"1.23%","roi1y":"4.32%","roi2y":"8.91%","roi3y":"0.00%","roiLaunch":"12.45%","roiY2D":"0.11%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"杜承豪","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":2141,"guid":"31b3259a-16ff-4d2d-a278-e9f4c4755c95","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"債市多頭尚在初段，高信評A級債券前景仍佳","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">預期美國聯準會(Fed)於2024年才開始進入降息循環，且債券價格仍在長期便宜水準，評估2023年11月以來的債市多頭尚在初段。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">通膨與就業市場降溫，支持Fed於2024年降息</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">Fed關注的核心個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數年增率，在2023年11月降至3.16%，為2021年4月以來新低，顯示通膨持續受到控制；雖然非農就業新增人數每月仍有10萬人以上，但具有領先意義的職缺數及薪資增速持續降溫，因此，通膨與就業市場都不再是Fed降息的阻礙。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">Fed多名官員也陸續鬆口，表示目前政策足夠緊縮，若通膨持續往Fed目標前進，對降息抱持開放態度。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美債殖利率往往於降息期間大幅下滑，推動債券價格上漲</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國5~10年期公債殖利率自2023年11月以來已下降約62個基本點(bp)，但觀察歷史經驗，債券殖利率在Fed降息前三個月通常會提前反應降息預期而下滑，並在Fed降息期間進一步走低。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">假設以十年期美國公債殖利率減去核心PCE通膨年增率，作為實質利率，在過去降息循環中，實質利率多為0.0%~0.5%。以Fed目前預測的2024年底PCE年增率2.4%加上實質利率後，簡單推估十年期美債殖利率可能區間為2.4~2.9%（目前約為4.1%）。&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg、復華投信整理，2024/1/22。&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">高信評的A級以上債券，信用風險較低，較能追隨降息利多</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">隨著通膨壓力減緩、Fed將進入降息循環，有助高品質債券迎來債息與資本利得的雙重收益機會。建議投資人可繼續持有高信評的A級以上債券，參與債市多頭機會，除了相較於其他低信評債券，更可望受惠於降息利多，未來若遇經濟下行風險等不確定性，預期可保持較低的信用風險。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">觀察Fed政策利率與美國公債殖利率的歷史表現，債券殖利率在降息前提早反應，並在降息期間仍持續下滑</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202401/20240125-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源 Bloomberg、復華投信整理，2024/1/22。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國A級債券價格雖從2023年10月的85元左右上漲至93元，惟長期而言仍相對便宜</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202401/20240125-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>註：以彭博美國信評A級公司債指數之債券價格為例，2002年以前為月資料。資料來源：Bloomberg，2024/1/22。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"預期Fed降息循環展開後，債券殖利率還有下行空間，有助於推動債券價格上漲，持續看好高信評A級債券。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202401/view-77.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"美國,債券","postTime":"2024/01/25 11:16:58","startTime":"2024-01-25T11:16:58.4430000+08:00","metaTitle":"債市多頭尚在初段，高信評A級債券前景樂觀｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2024-01-25T11:27:18.3430000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/31b3259a-16ff-4d2d-a278-e9f4c4755c95"},{"id":1998,"guid":"7db5c9d6-00d9-4f76-bda0-a1ff0ca3fcef","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"嚴選A級債券，在降息循環中領取鎖定的債息及資本利得機會！","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">「復華A級債券傘型基金」即將於10/23(一) ~ 10/27(五)限時5天募集，助您掌握升息循環接近尾聲，投資等級債兼具債息與資本利得的雙重收益機會(註1)！</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202310/20221006-3.png\"></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/2023_fund118/index.html\" target=\"_blank\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\" data-lightbox=\"#loginLightbox\">我想了解更多</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">投資「復華A級債券傘型基金」的三大理由：</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>領取Fed連續升息後，鎖定五年及八年的連續債息。據統計，截至2023年9月22日為止，美國投資等級債指數殖利率5.88%(註3)，為2008年金融海嘯後的殖利率高位。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>因通膨已下降，升息循環接近尾聲(註4)，當Fed開始降息，將有資本利得機會。而且A級以上投資等級債，因較優的信用品質，在降息循環中的資本利得，常優於BBB及非投資等級債。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>當不同到期年份的基金，累積總報酬率分別高於10%或15%後，基金將提前到期(註2)，投資更有效率。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">為什麼Fed在2024年開始，降息機會大？</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>首先，美國通膨已趨緩一段時間！</strong>觀察過去十年，美國聯準會(Fed)積極升息打擊通膨後已見成效，美國核心CPI自2022年10月起呈現下行趨勢，目前已低於Fed政策利率(5.25~5.50%)。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202310/20221006-1.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>本文提及之走勢預測不必然代表未來實際情形。</strong>CPI係指消費者物價指數，以此作為美國通膨數值之例。資料來源：Bloomberg，2023/8/31。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>其次，經濟無法長期承受高利率！</strong>特別是營業利益率較低、利息費用高的企業，尤其高利率不利於經濟火車頭的房地產業，而銀行業在高利率時期，因利率倒掛，要用高成本吸收短期資金、放款低利率的長期貸款，經營困難；況且高利率也不利於消費力，對於消費佔GDP約70%的美國來說，經濟更無法長期承受。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">降息循環中， A級債券較BBB級的資本利得高？</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據過去歷史，降息前三個月到降息結束，各債券指數的總報酬率中，債信的<u>資本利得</u>高於<u>債息收入</u>，而且A級投資等級債的資本利得，高於BBB及非投資等級債的機率大。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202310/20221006-2.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg、復華投信整理。以美銀美林債券指數為例。計算期間：1995/4/6~1996/1/31、2000/10/3~2003/6/25、2007/6/18~2008/12/16、2019/4/30~2020/3/16。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">註1. 上述以2023/9/20 FOMC會議之利率點陣圖預測，後續可能異動，亦不必然代表未來實際情形。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>註2. 本基金不保證可提前到期，亦不保證可達到特定目標淨值條件及最低收益。復華二年半至五年機動到期A級債券美元基金，於成立次日起二年六個月後，每月檢視淨值是否達11.0000(含)以上。復華三至八年機動到期A級債券美元/台幣基金：成立次日起三年後，每月檢視淨值是否達11.5000(含)以上。以該月最後五個營業日淨值皆達上述情形為基金啟動提前結算機制之條件。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>註3. 以彭博美國投資等級公司債指數為例。資料來源：Bloomberg，2023/9/22。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>註4. 以2023/9/20 FOMC會議之利率點陣圖預測，後續可能異動。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我想看看最新優惠基金</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/funds/offer\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">&nbsp;</p>","summary":"10/23(一) ~ 10/27(五)限時5天募集的「復華A級債券傘型基金」，助您在升息循環接近尾聲中，掌握投資等級債兼具債息與資本利得的雙重收益機會~","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202310/de8f125e-8136-4502-94c9-7f357719be86view-80.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"全球,債券","postTime":"2023/10/06 17:16:33","startTime":"2023-10-06T17:16:32.9970000+08:00","metaTitle":"在降息循環中領取鎖定的債息及資本利得機會｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2023-10-20T09:31:06.8330000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/7db5c9d6-00d9-4f76-bda0-a1ff0ca3fcef"}],"news01":[{"id":2141,"guid":"31b3259a-16ff-4d2d-a278-e9f4c4755c95","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"債市多頭尚在初段，高信評A級債券前景仍佳","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">預期美國聯準會(Fed)於2024年才開始進入降息循環，且債券價格仍在長期便宜水準，評估2023年11月以來的債市多頭尚在初段。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">通膨與就業市場降溫，支持Fed於2024年降息</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">Fed關注的核心個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數年增率，在2023年11月降至3.16%，為2021年4月以來新低，顯示通膨持續受到控制；雖然非農就業新增人數每月仍有10萬人以上，但具有領先意義的職缺數及薪資增速持續降溫，因此，通膨與就業市場都不再是Fed降息的阻礙。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">Fed多名官員也陸續鬆口，表示目前政策足夠緊縮，若通膨持續往Fed目標前進，對降息抱持開放態度。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美債殖利率往往於降息期間大幅下滑，推動債券價格上漲</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國5~10年期公債殖利率自2023年11月以來已下降約62個基本點(bp)，但觀察歷史經驗，債券殖利率在Fed降息前三個月通常會提前反應降息預期而下滑，並在Fed降息期間進一步走低。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">假設以十年期美國公債殖利率減去核心PCE通膨年增率，作為實質利率，在過去降息循環中，實質利率多為0.0%~0.5%。以Fed目前預測的2024年底PCE年增率2.4%加上實質利率後，簡單推估十年期美債殖利率可能區間為2.4~2.9%（目前約為4.1%）。&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg、復華投信整理，2024/1/22。&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">高信評的A級以上債券，信用風險較低，較能追隨降息利多</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">隨著通膨壓力減緩、Fed將進入降息循環，有助高品質債券迎來債息與資本利得的雙重收益機會。建議投資人可繼續持有高信評的A級以上債券，參與債市多頭機會，除了相較於其他低信評債券，更可望受惠於降息利多，未來若遇經濟下行風險等不確定性，預期可保持較低的信用風險。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">觀察Fed政策利率與美國公債殖利率的歷史表現，債券殖利率在降息前提早反應，並在降息期間仍持續下滑</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202401/20240125-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源 Bloomberg、復華投信整理，2024/1/22。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國A級債券價格雖從2023年10月的85元左右上漲至93元，惟長期而言仍相對便宜</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202401/20240125-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>註：以彭博美國信評A級公司債指數之債券價格為例，2002年以前為月資料。資料來源：Bloomberg，2024/1/22。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"預期Fed降息循環展開後，債券殖利率還有下行空間，有助於推動債券價格上漲，持續看好高信評A級債券。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202401/view-77.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"美國,債券","postTime":"2024/01/25 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style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">債券價格波動度隨到期日接近而遞減，若債券無違約，債券到期前因利率變化而產生的價格波動不影響債券到期時的償付金額，適合長期投資人</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2019/03/25","ec006":"美元","ec010":"兆豐國際商業銀行","ec009":"RR3","ec012":"0.85%~3.35%","ec013":"0.110%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資債券型","ec020_sort":5086,"ec022":"年配","ec024":"新興市場","ec026":"債券型","ec027":"依公開說明書規定","ec028":"","ec030":"T+6日","ec036":"兆豐國際商業銀行","ec037":"復華十年到期新興市場債券基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec040":"每年3月25日","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":1,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p><p>表格所示為含息報酬率。走勢圖為不含息之績效。</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。<br>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"<p>註1：除透過基金銷售機構以自己名義為投資人申購或買回本基金、壽險業者之投資型保單申購或買回本基金或其他經經理公司同意者外，分配之給付金額未達美元50元時，受益人同意經理公司以該筆分配金額再申購本基金受益權單位。</p><p>註2：配息率並非等於基金報酬率，於獲配息時，宜一併注意基金淨值之變動。</p><p>註3：收益分配紀錄查詢區間不可超過三年。</p><p>註4：上述配息組成項目表中，可分配淨利益為信託契約所載之可分配收益扣除基金應負擔相關成本費用。本基金配息前未先完全扣除應負擔之相關費用，故配息可能涉及本金。</p>","ec410":"","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華十年到期新興市場債券基金(美元) 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15:55:25","startTime":"2026-03-27T15:55:25.3130000+08:00","metaTitle":"復華十年到期新興市場債券基金115年度配息金額公告 | 復華投信","metaDescription":"最新共同基金、指數型基金及ETF相關訊息公告，以及復華投信給投資人的重要通知。","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-27T15:56:16.9570000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":1,"dividendType":"2","dividendRoute":"202603","categoryGuid":"cf878d00-aac3-4c90-acde-7e9f83afc059","category":{"id":20974,"guid":"cf878d00-aac3-4c90-acde-7e9f83afc059","name":"配息公告","parentGuid":"53338b1b-120e-46bd-a7d7-d579682c4a41","route":"/services/news_list/annoucement","routeSource":"/services/news_list.html","route01":"/services/news_list/content/annoucement/{guid}","route01Source":"/services/interest_news.html","views":"","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"配息公告","metaTitle":"配息公告｜復華投信","metaDescription":"最新共同基金、指數型基金及ETF相關訊息公告，以及復華投信給投資人的重要通知。","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/58b14aec-4840-401b-9739-85e878ddf642G.logo.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"articleCategorys":{"id":12326,"guid":"c9a9697c-c933-467e-80e9-e72c5faad797","name":"配息公告","parentGuid":"3c02dcc3-6a5a-4c94-ab84-0b3aebd55b8f","description":"配息公告敘述","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/services/news_list/content/annoucement/419b69fd-8f6e-439c-903f-a3d9c46b3750"},{"id":3039,"guid":"204bcac4-ee0b-428b-98d7-bd7dc79e9353","articleCategory":"配息公告","title":"【115年度配息期前公告】復華十年到期新興市場債券基金","contents":"","summary":"復華十年到期新興市場債券基金115年度配息期前相關資訊，請點選下表各基金之「檔案下載」觀看詳細公告內容：","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"","postTime":"2026/03/23 15:48:35","startTime":"2026-03-23T15:48:35.8900000+08:00","metaTitle":"復華十年到期新興市場債券基金基金115年度配息期前公告 | 復華投信","metaDescription":"最新共同基金、指數型基金及ETF相關訊息公告，以及復華投信給投資人的重要通知。","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-23T15:49:26.0370000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":1,"dividendType":"1","dividendRoute":"202603","categoryGuid":"cf878d00-aac3-4c90-acde-7e9f83afc059","category":{"id":20974,"guid":"cf878d00-aac3-4c90-acde-7e9f83afc059","name":"配息公告","parentGuid":"53338b1b-120e-46bd-a7d7-d579682c4a41","route":"/services/news_list/annoucement","routeSource":"/services/news_list.html","route01":"/services/news_list/content/annoucement/{guid}","route01Source":"/services/interest_news.html","views":"","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"配息公告","metaTitle":"配息公告｜復華投信","metaDescription":"最新共同基金、指數型基金及ETF相關訊息公告，以及復華投信給投資人的重要通知。","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/58b14aec-4840-401b-9739-85e878ddf642G.logo.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"articleCategorys":{"id":12326,"guid":"c9a9697c-c933-467e-80e9-e72c5faad797","name":"配息公告","parentGuid":"3c02dcc3-6a5a-4c94-ab84-0b3aebd55b8f","description":"配息公告敘述","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/services/news_list/content/annoucement/204bcac4-ee0b-428b-98d7-bd7dc79e9353"}],"news01":[{"id":2322,"guid":"65ea9c34-54e9-464d-a012-4c60be44ebb0","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國經濟數據放緩，Fed降息預期將有利新興債市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">近期新興債市受美國和法國的政治風險影響，呈現利差拓寬、資金流出的狀況，但隨著美國經濟數據放緩，市場重新定價今(2024)年美國聯準會(Fed)降息次數，將有利新興債市表現；整體而言，未來新興美元債展望為中性偏多。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">基本面：中性偏多</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">世界銀行在6月上修2024全年經濟展望，由先前預測的年成長率2.4%上修至2.6%，此外，美國經濟強於預期，估計對經濟上修約提供80%的貢獻，新興市場整體的經濟成長率則預期將保持在4.0%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">政策面：中性偏多</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">6月底因美國總統候選人川普的民調支持率上升，美國公債利率上行，但在經濟數據開始放緩，加上Fed會議紀要顯示委員關注勞動市場可能迎來轉折點，令美債利率自高點回落，市場重新定價今年可能降息2次。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">目前市場預期Fed全年降息2碼</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202407/20240711-1.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg；2021/6/30~2024/7/5。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">籌碼面：中性</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">新興債市共同基金在7月第一週流出1.2億美元，受主要國家的政治風險影響，預期隨法國政治風險消退、市場重新定價美國選舉結果，以及美債利率下降，將有利下半年新興債市籌碼面表現。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">新興債共同基金之資金流量</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202407/20240711-2.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：JP Morgan、EPFR，復華投信整理，2024/7/5。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">市場情緒：中性</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">新興市場風險在近期受美國總統選舉民調變化，以及法國議會選舉的風險影響而上升，預期在下半年美國的政治情勢將牽動新興市場風險情緒。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">評價面：中性</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">新興美元債不含委內瑞拉的利差接近疫情前水準，評價面仍偏貴。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">金融海嘯後新興美元債信用利差(不含委內瑞拉)走勢</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202407/20240711-3.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2024/7/5。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"隨著美國經濟數據放緩，市場重新定價今(2024)年美國聯準會(Fed)降息次數，將有利新興債市表現。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202407/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"全球,債券","postTime":"2024/07/11 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復華投信","metaDescription":"最新共同基金、指數型基金及ETF相關訊息公告，以及復華投信給投資人的重要通知。","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-07-18T14:39:54.7730000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":1,"dividendType":"1","dividendRoute":"202507","categoryGuid":"cf878d00-aac3-4c90-acde-7e9f83afc059","category":{"id":20974,"guid":"cf878d00-aac3-4c90-acde-7e9f83afc059","name":"配息公告","parentGuid":"53338b1b-120e-46bd-a7d7-d579682c4a41","route":"/services/news_list/annoucement","routeSource":"/services/news_list.html","route01":"/services/news_list/content/annoucement/{guid}","route01Source":"/services/interest_news.html","views":"","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"配息公告","metaTitle":"配息公告｜復華投信","metaDescription":"最新共同基金、指數型基金及ETF相關訊息公告，以及復華投信給投資人的重要通知。","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/58b14aec-4840-401b-9739-85e878ddf642G.logo.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"articleCategorys":{"id":12326,"guid":"c9a9697c-c933-467e-80e9-e72c5faad797","name":"配息公告","parentGuid":"3c02dcc3-6a5a-4c94-ab84-0b3aebd55b8f","description":"配息公告敘述","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/services/news_list/content/annoucement/55230344-83ad-45f1-878f-692faadb53e9"}],"news01":[],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/97.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/97.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/97.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"","url2":"","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":1,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1105,"updateTime":"2024-07-15T09:02:26.8970000+08:00","guid":"e2f6ce60-db11-4bbd-bce4-3b8c94bcc1b0","fundID":"120","twNameFull":"復華三至八年機動到期A級債券台幣基金","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh 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style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">機動到期：基金成立次日起屆滿八年到期，但設有提前結算機制，可能因報酬達標而提前出場（啟動條件為：基金成立次日起滿三年後，當月最後五個營業日淨值皆達11.5000(含)以上。其後每月檢視）</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2023/11/01","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"台北富邦商業銀行","ec009":"RR2","ec012":"0.50%~3.50%","ec013":"0.12%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資債券型","ec020_sort":5086,"ec022":"","ec024":"全球","ec026":"債券型","ec030":"T+7日","ec036":"台北富邦商業銀行敦北分行","ec037":"復華三至八年機動到期A級債券台幣基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"","ec407":"","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"三至八年A級債券台幣","metaDescription":"投資於信用評等A 級以上之優質債券及成熟市場債券，提供投資人較低信用風險的債券資產組合\n機動到期：基金成立次日起屆滿八年到期，但設有提前結算機制，可能因報酬達標而提前出場（啟動條件為：基金成立次日起滿三年後，當月最後五個營業日淨值皆達11.5000(含)以上。其後每月檢視）","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":0,"fundSize_TWD":"2124322913.000000","roi3m":"1.51%","roi6m":"5.97%","roi1y":"1.27%","roi2y":"9.21%","roi3y":"0.00%","roiLaunch":"13.17%","roiY2D":"1.51%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"吳宜潔","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":2141,"guid":"31b3259a-16ff-4d2d-a278-e9f4c4755c95","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"債市多頭尚在初段，高信評A級債券前景仍佳","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">預期美國聯準會(Fed)於2024年才開始進入降息循環，且債券價格仍在長期便宜水準，評估2023年11月以來的債市多頭尚在初段。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">通膨與就業市場降溫，支持Fed於2024年降息</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">Fed關注的核心個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數年增率，在2023年11月降至3.16%，為2021年4月以來新低，顯示通膨持續受到控制；雖然非農就業新增人數每月仍有10萬人以上，但具有領先意義的職缺數及薪資增速持續降溫，因此，通膨與就業市場都不再是Fed降息的阻礙。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">Fed多名官員也陸續鬆口，表示目前政策足夠緊縮，若通膨持續往Fed目標前進，對降息抱持開放態度。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美債殖利率往往於降息期間大幅下滑，推動債券價格上漲</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國5~10年期公債殖利率自2023年11月以來已下降約62個基本點(bp)，但觀察歷史經驗，債券殖利率在Fed降息前三個月通常會提前反應降息預期而下滑，並在Fed降息期間進一步走低。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">假設以十年期美國公債殖利率減去核心PCE通膨年增率，作為實質利率，在過去降息循環中，實質利率多為0.0%~0.5%。以Fed目前預測的2024年底PCE年增率2.4%加上實質利率後，簡單推估十年期美債殖利率可能區間為2.4~2.9%（目前約為4.1%）。&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg、復華投信整理，2024/1/22。&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">高信評的A級以上債券，信用風險較低，較能追隨降息利多</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">隨著通膨壓力減緩、Fed將進入降息循環，有助高品質債券迎來債息與資本利得的雙重收益機會。建議投資人可繼續持有高信評的A級以上債券，參與債市多頭機會，除了相較於其他低信評債券，更可望受惠於降息利多，未來若遇經濟下行風險等不確定性，預期可保持較低的信用風險。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">觀察Fed政策利率與美國公債殖利率的歷史表現，債券殖利率在降息前提早反應，並在降息期間仍持續下滑</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202401/20240125-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源 Bloomberg、復華投信整理，2024/1/22。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國A級債券價格雖從2023年10月的85元左右上漲至93元，惟長期而言仍相對便宜</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202401/20240125-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>註：以彭博美國信評A級公司債指數之債券價格為例，2002年以前為月資料。資料來源：Bloomberg，2024/1/22。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"預期Fed降息循環展開後，債券殖利率還有下行空間，有助於推動債券價格上漲，持續看好高信評A級債券。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202401/view-77.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"美國,債券","postTime":"2024/01/25 11:16:58","startTime":"2024-01-25T11:16:58.4430000+08:00","metaTitle":"債市多頭尚在初段，高信評A級債券前景樂觀｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2024-01-25T11:27:18.3430000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/31b3259a-16ff-4d2d-a278-e9f4c4755c95"},{"id":1998,"guid":"7db5c9d6-00d9-4f76-bda0-a1ff0ca3fcef","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"嚴選A級債券，在降息循環中領取鎖定的債息及資本利得機會！","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">「復華A級債券傘型基金」即將於10/23(一) ~ 10/27(五)限時5天募集，助您掌握升息循環接近尾聲，投資等級債兼具債息與資本利得的雙重收益機會(註1)！</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202310/20221006-3.png\"></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/2023_fund118/index.html\" target=\"_blank\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\" data-lightbox=\"#loginLightbox\">我想了解更多</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">投資「復華A級債券傘型基金」的三大理由：</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>領取Fed連續升息後，鎖定五年及八年的連續債息。據統計，截至2023年9月22日為止，美國投資等級債指數殖利率5.88%(註3)，為2008年金融海嘯後的殖利率高位。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>因通膨已下降，升息循環接近尾聲(註4)，當Fed開始降息，將有資本利得機會。而且A級以上投資等級債，因較優的信用品質，在降息循環中的資本利得，常優於BBB及非投資等級債。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>當不同到期年份的基金，累積總報酬率分別高於10%或15%後，基金將提前到期(註2)，投資更有效率。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">為什麼Fed在2024年開始，降息機會大？</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>首先，美國通膨已趨緩一段時間！</strong>觀察過去十年，美國聯準會(Fed)積極升息打擊通膨後已見成效，美國核心CPI自2022年10月起呈現下行趨勢，目前已低於Fed政策利率(5.25~5.50%)。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202310/20221006-1.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>本文提及之走勢預測不必然代表未來實際情形。</strong>CPI係指消費者物價指數，以此作為美國通膨數值之例。資料來源：Bloomberg，2023/8/31。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>其次，經濟無法長期承受高利率！</strong>特別是營業利益率較低、利息費用高的企業，尤其高利率不利於經濟火車頭的房地產業，而銀行業在高利率時期，因利率倒掛，要用高成本吸收短期資金、放款低利率的長期貸款，經營困難；況且高利率也不利於消費力，對於消費佔GDP約70%的美國來說，經濟更無法長期承受。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">降息循環中， A級債券較BBB級的資本利得高？</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據過去歷史，降息前三個月到降息結束，各債券指數的總報酬率中，債信的<u>資本利得</u>高於<u>債息收入</u>，而且A級投資等級債的資本利得，高於BBB及非投資等級債的機率大。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202310/20221006-2.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg、復華投信整理。以美銀美林債券指數為例。計算期間：1995/4/6~1996/1/31、2000/10/3~2003/6/25、2007/6/18~2008/12/16、2019/4/30~2020/3/16。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">註1. 上述以2023/9/20 FOMC會議之利率點陣圖預測，後續可能異動，亦不必然代表未來實際情形。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>註2. 本基金不保證可提前到期，亦不保證可達到特定目標淨值條件及最低收益。復華二年半至五年機動到期A級債券美元基金，於成立次日起二年六個月後，每月檢視淨值是否達11.0000(含)以上。復華三至八年機動到期A級債券美元/台幣基金：成立次日起三年後，每月檢視淨值是否達11.5000(含)以上。以該月最後五個營業日淨值皆達上述情形為基金啟動提前結算機制之條件。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>註3. 以彭博美國投資等級公司債指數為例。資料來源：Bloomberg，2023/9/22。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>註4. 以2023/9/20 FOMC會議之利率點陣圖預測，後續可能異動。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我想看看最新優惠基金</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/funds/offer\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">&nbsp;</p>","summary":"10/23(一) ~ 10/27(五)限時5天募集的「復華A級債券傘型基金」，助您在升息循環接近尾聲中，掌握投資等級債兼具債息與資本利得的雙重收益機會~","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202310/de8f125e-8136-4502-94c9-7f357719be86view-80.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"全球,債券","postTime":"2023/10/06 17:16:33","startTime":"2023-10-06T17:16:32.9970000+08:00","metaTitle":"在降息循環中領取鎖定的債息及資本利得機會｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2023-10-20T09:31:06.8330000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/7db5c9d6-00d9-4f76-bda0-a1ff0ca3fcef"}],"news01":[{"id":2141,"guid":"31b3259a-16ff-4d2d-a278-e9f4c4755c95","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"債市多頭尚在初段，高信評A級債券前景仍佳","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">預期美國聯準會(Fed)於2024年才開始進入降息循環，且債券價格仍在長期便宜水準，評估2023年11月以來的債市多頭尚在初段。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">通膨與就業市場降溫，支持Fed於2024年降息</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">Fed關注的核心個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數年增率，在2023年11月降至3.16%，為2021年4月以來新低，顯示通膨持續受到控制；雖然非農就業新增人數每月仍有10萬人以上，但具有領先意義的職缺數及薪資增速持續降溫，因此，通膨與就業市場都不再是Fed降息的阻礙。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">Fed多名官員也陸續鬆口，表示目前政策足夠緊縮，若通膨持續往Fed目標前進，對降息抱持開放態度。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美債殖利率往往於降息期間大幅下滑，推動債券價格上漲</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國5~10年期公債殖利率自2023年11月以來已下降約62個基本點(bp)，但觀察歷史經驗，債券殖利率在Fed降息前三個月通常會提前反應降息預期而下滑，並在Fed降息期間進一步走低。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">假設以十年期美國公債殖利率減去核心PCE通膨年增率，作為實質利率，在過去降息循環中，實質利率多為0.0%~0.5%。以Fed目前預測的2024年底PCE年增率2.4%加上實質利率後，簡單推估十年期美債殖利率可能區間為2.4~2.9%（目前約為4.1%）。&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg、復華投信整理，2024/1/22。&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">高信評的A級以上債券，信用風險較低，較能追隨降息利多</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">隨著通膨壓力減緩、Fed將進入降息循環，有助高品質債券迎來債息與資本利得的雙重收益機會。建議投資人可繼續持有高信評的A級以上債券，參與債市多頭機會，除了相較於其他低信評債券，更可望受惠於降息利多，未來若遇經濟下行風險等不確定性，預期可保持較低的信用風險。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">觀察Fed政策利率與美國公債殖利率的歷史表現，債券殖利率在降息前提早反應，並在降息期間仍持續下滑</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202401/20240125-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源 Bloomberg、復華投信整理，2024/1/22。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國A級債券價格雖從2023年10月的85元左右上漲至93元，惟長期而言仍相對便宜</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202401/20240125-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>註：以彭博美國信評A級公司債指數之債券價格為例，2002年以前為月資料。資料來源：Bloomberg，2024/1/22。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"預期Fed降息循環展開後，債券殖利率還有下行空間，有助於推動債券價格上漲，持續看好高信評A級債券。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202401/view-77.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"美國,債券","postTime":"2024/01/25 11:16:58","startTime":"2024-01-25T11:16:58.4430000+08:00","metaTitle":"債市多頭尚在初段，高信評A級債券前景樂觀｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2024-01-25T11:27:18.3430000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/31b3259a-16ff-4d2d-a278-e9f4c4755c95"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/120.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/120.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/120.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"","url2":"","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":1,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1104,"updateTime":"2023-11-01T15:46:16.6030000+08:00","guid":"721ab0d7-d265-4b99-a7f6-97a84c136d58","fundID":"119","twNameFull":"復華三至八年機動到期A級債券美元基金","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa 3-8 Year Maturity A-Rated Bond Fund USD","ec002":"","twName":"三至八年A級債券美元","pnav":"11.4559","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"-0.0139","changeRange":"-0.12%","qnav_l":4,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">投資於信用評等A 級以上之優質債券及成熟市場債券，提供投資人較低信用風險的債券資產組合</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">機動到期：基金成立次日起屆滿八年到期，但設有提前結算機制，可能因報酬達標而提前出場（啟動條件為：基金成立次日起滿三年後，當月最後五個營業日淨值皆達11.5000(含)以上。其後每月檢視）</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2023/11/01","ec006":"美元","ec010":"台北富邦商業銀行","ec009":"RR2","ec012":"0.50%~3.50%","ec013":"0.12%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資債券型","ec020_sort":5086,"ec022":"","ec024":"全球","ec026":"債券型","ec030":"T+7日","ec036":"台北富邦商業銀行敦北分行","ec037":"復華三至八年機動到期A級債券美元基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"","ec407":"","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華三至八年機動到期A級債券美元基金","metaDescription":"投資於信用評等A 級以上之優質債券及成熟市場債券，提供投資人較低信用風險的債券資產組合\n\n機動到期：基金成立次日起屆滿八年到期，但設有提前結算機制，可能因報酬達標而提前出場（啟動條件為：基金成立次日起滿三年後，當月最後五個營業日淨值皆達11.5000(含)以上。其後每月檢視）","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":0,"fundSize_TWD":"821658443.112000","roi3m":"-0.29%","roi6m":"0.82%","roi1y":"4.87%","roi2y":"8.87%","roi3y":"0.00%","roiLaunch":"13.94%","roiY2D":"-0.29%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"李彥陞","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":2141,"guid":"31b3259a-16ff-4d2d-a278-e9f4c4755c95","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"債市多頭尚在初段，高信評A級債券前景仍佳","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">預期美國聯準會(Fed)於2024年才開始進入降息循環，且債券價格仍在長期便宜水準，評估2023年11月以來的債市多頭尚在初段。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">通膨與就業市場降溫，支持Fed於2024年降息</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">Fed關注的核心個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數年增率，在2023年11月降至3.16%，為2021年4月以來新低，顯示通膨持續受到控制；雖然非農就業新增人數每月仍有10萬人以上，但具有領先意義的職缺數及薪資增速持續降溫，因此，通膨與就業市場都不再是Fed降息的阻礙。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">Fed多名官員也陸續鬆口，表示目前政策足夠緊縮，若通膨持續往Fed目標前進，對降息抱持開放態度。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美債殖利率往往於降息期間大幅下滑，推動債券價格上漲</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國5~10年期公債殖利率自2023年11月以來已下降約62個基本點(bp)，但觀察歷史經驗，債券殖利率在Fed降息前三個月通常會提前反應降息預期而下滑，並在Fed降息期間進一步走低。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">假設以十年期美國公債殖利率減去核心PCE通膨年增率，作為實質利率，在過去降息循環中，實質利率多為0.0%~0.5%。以Fed目前預測的2024年底PCE年增率2.4%加上實質利率後，簡單推估十年期美債殖利率可能區間為2.4~2.9%（目前約為4.1%）。&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg、復華投信整理，2024/1/22。&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">高信評的A級以上債券，信用風險較低，較能追隨降息利多</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">隨著通膨壓力減緩、Fed將進入降息循環，有助高品質債券迎來債息與資本利得的雙重收益機會。建議投資人可繼續持有高信評的A級以上債券，參與債市多頭機會，除了相較於其他低信評債券，更可望受惠於降息利多，未來若遇經濟下行風險等不確定性，預期可保持較低的信用風險。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">觀察Fed政策利率與美國公債殖利率的歷史表現，債券殖利率在降息前提早反應，並在降息期間仍持續下滑</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202401/20240125-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源 Bloomberg、復華投信整理，2024/1/22。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國A級債券價格雖從2023年10月的85元左右上漲至93元，惟長期而言仍相對便宜</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202401/20240125-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>註：以彭博美國信評A級公司債指數之債券價格為例，2002年以前為月資料。資料來源：Bloomberg，2024/1/22。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"預期Fed降息循環展開後，債券殖利率還有下行空間，有助於推動債券價格上漲，持續看好高信評A級債券。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202401/view-77.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"美國,債券","postTime":"2024/01/25 11:16:58","startTime":"2024-01-25T11:16:58.4430000+08:00","metaTitle":"債市多頭尚在初段，高信評A級債券前景樂觀｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2024-01-25T11:27:18.3430000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/31b3259a-16ff-4d2d-a278-e9f4c4755c95"},{"id":1998,"guid":"7db5c9d6-00d9-4f76-bda0-a1ff0ca3fcef","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"嚴選A級債券，在降息循環中領取鎖定的債息及資本利得機會！","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">「復華A級債券傘型基金」即將於10/23(一) ~ 10/27(五)限時5天募集，助您掌握升息循環接近尾聲，投資等級債兼具債息與資本利得的雙重收益機會(註1)！</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202310/20221006-3.png\"></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/2023_fund118/index.html\" target=\"_blank\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\" data-lightbox=\"#loginLightbox\">我想了解更多</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">投資「復華A級債券傘型基金」的三大理由：</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>領取Fed連續升息後，鎖定五年及八年的連續債息。據統計，截至2023年9月22日為止，美國投資等級債指數殖利率5.88%(註3)，為2008年金融海嘯後的殖利率高位。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>因通膨已下降，升息循環接近尾聲(註4)，當Fed開始降息，將有資本利得機會。而且A級以上投資等級債，因較優的信用品質，在降息循環中的資本利得，常優於BBB及非投資等級債。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>當不同到期年份的基金，累積總報酬率分別高於10%或15%後，基金將提前到期(註2)，投資更有效率。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">為什麼Fed在2024年開始，降息機會大？</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>首先，美國通膨已趨緩一段時間！</strong>觀察過去十年，美國聯準會(Fed)積極升息打擊通膨後已見成效，美國核心CPI自2022年10月起呈現下行趨勢，目前已低於Fed政策利率(5.25~5.50%)。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202310/20221006-1.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>本文提及之走勢預測不必然代表未來實際情形。</strong>CPI係指消費者物價指數，以此作為美國通膨數值之例。資料來源：Bloomberg，2023/8/31。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>其次，經濟無法長期承受高利率！</strong>特別是營業利益率較低、利息費用高的企業，尤其高利率不利於經濟火車頭的房地產業，而銀行業在高利率時期，因利率倒掛，要用高成本吸收短期資金、放款低利率的長期貸款，經營困難；況且高利率也不利於消費力，對於消費佔GDP約70%的美國來說，經濟更無法長期承受。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">降息循環中， A級債券較BBB級的資本利得高？</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據過去歷史，降息前三個月到降息結束，各債券指數的總報酬率中，債信的<u>資本利得</u>高於<u>債息收入</u>，而且A級投資等級債的資本利得，高於BBB及非投資等級債的機率大。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202310/20221006-2.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg、復華投信整理。以美銀美林債券指數為例。計算期間：1995/4/6~1996/1/31、2000/10/3~2003/6/25、2007/6/18~2008/12/16、2019/4/30~2020/3/16。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">註1. 上述以2023/9/20 FOMC會議之利率點陣圖預測，後續可能異動，亦不必然代表未來實際情形。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>註2. 本基金不保證可提前到期，亦不保證可達到特定目標淨值條件及最低收益。復華二年半至五年機動到期A級債券美元基金，於成立次日起二年六個月後，每月檢視淨值是否達11.0000(含)以上。復華三至八年機動到期A級債券美元/台幣基金：成立次日起三年後，每月檢視淨值是否達11.5000(含)以上。以該月最後五個營業日淨值皆達上述情形為基金啟動提前結算機制之條件。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>註3. 以彭博美國投資等級公司債指數為例。資料來源：Bloomberg，2023/9/22。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>註4. 以2023/9/20 FOMC會議之利率點陣圖預測，後續可能異動。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我想看看最新優惠基金</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/funds/offer\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">&nbsp;</p>","summary":"10/23(一) ~ 10/27(五)限時5天募集的「復華A級債券傘型基金」，助您在升息循環接近尾聲中，掌握投資等級債兼具債息與資本利得的雙重收益機會~","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202310/de8f125e-8136-4502-94c9-7f357719be86view-80.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"全球,債券","postTime":"2023/10/06 17:16:33","startTime":"2023-10-06T17:16:32.9970000+08:00","metaTitle":"在降息循環中領取鎖定的債息及資本利得機會｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2023-10-20T09:31:06.8330000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/7db5c9d6-00d9-4f76-bda0-a1ff0ca3fcef"}],"news01":[{"id":2141,"guid":"31b3259a-16ff-4d2d-a278-e9f4c4755c95","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"債市多頭尚在初段，高信評A級債券前景仍佳","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">預期美國聯準會(Fed)於2024年才開始進入降息循環，且債券價格仍在長期便宜水準，評估2023年11月以來的債市多頭尚在初段。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">通膨與就業市場降溫，支持Fed於2024年降息</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">Fed關注的核心個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數年增率，在2023年11月降至3.16%，為2021年4月以來新低，顯示通膨持續受到控制；雖然非農就業新增人數每月仍有10萬人以上，但具有領先意義的職缺數及薪資增速持續降溫，因此，通膨與就業市場都不再是Fed降息的阻礙。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">Fed多名官員也陸續鬆口，表示目前政策足夠緊縮，若通膨持續往Fed目標前進，對降息抱持開放態度。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美債殖利率往往於降息期間大幅下滑，推動債券價格上漲</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國5~10年期公債殖利率自2023年11月以來已下降約62個基本點(bp)，但觀察歷史經驗，債券殖利率在Fed降息前三個月通常會提前反應降息預期而下滑，並在Fed降息期間進一步走低。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">假設以十年期美國公債殖利率減去核心PCE通膨年增率，作為實質利率，在過去降息循環中，實質利率多為0.0%~0.5%。以Fed目前預測的2024年底PCE年增率2.4%加上實質利率後，簡單推估十年期美債殖利率可能區間為2.4~2.9%（目前約為4.1%）。&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg、復華投信整理，2024/1/22。&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">高信評的A級以上債券，信用風險較低，較能追隨降息利多</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">隨著通膨壓力減緩、Fed將進入降息循環，有助高品質債券迎來債息與資本利得的雙重收益機會。建議投資人可繼續持有高信評的A級以上債券，參與債市多頭機會，除了相較於其他低信評債券，更可望受惠於降息利多，未來若遇經濟下行風險等不確定性，預期可保持較低的信用風險。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">觀察Fed政策利率與美國公債殖利率的歷史表現，債券殖利率在降息前提早反應，並在降息期間仍持續下滑</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202401/20240125-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源 Bloomberg、復華投信整理，2024/1/22。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國A級債券價格雖從2023年10月的85元左右上漲至93元，惟長期而言仍相對便宜</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202401/20240125-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>註：以彭博美國信評A級公司債指數之債券價格為例，2002年以前為月資料。資料來源：Bloomberg，2024/1/22。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"預期Fed降息循環展開後，債券殖利率還有下行空間，有助於推動債券價格上漲，持續看好高信評A級債券。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202401/view-77.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"美國,債券","postTime":"2024/01/25 11:16:58","startTime":"2024-01-25T11:16:58.4430000+08:00","metaTitle":"債市多頭尚在初段，高信評A級債券前景樂觀｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2024-01-25T11:27:18.3430000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/31b3259a-16ff-4d2d-a278-e9f4c4755c95"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/119.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/119.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/119.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"","url2":"","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":1,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1068,"updateTime":"2025-01-07T10:33:43.6570000+08:00","guid":"a14acef6-f81f-416e-b4d1-1a7a121bbf62","fundID":"67","twNameFull":"復華全球短期收益基金-美元","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa Global Short-Term Income Fund-USD","ec002":"(本基金有一定比重得投資於非投資等級之高風險債券)","twName":"全球短期收益美元","pnav":"11.1744","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"-0.0117","changeRange":"-0.10%","qnav_l":4,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">主要投資於投資等級短天期債券，根據債券收益率、信用價差、市場波動與資產相關性等，建構出風險較分散的投資組合。</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">資產組合平均存續期間1~3年，受利率變動的影響較小，追求以較低波動度累積收益。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2009/05/07","ec006":"美元","ec010":"上海商業儲蓄銀行","ec009":"RR2","ec012":"0.60%","ec013":"0.140%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資債券型","ec020_sort":5086,"ec022":"","ec024":"全球","ec026":"債券型","ec028":"","ec030":"T+3日","ec036":"上海商業儲蓄銀行仁愛分行","ec037":"復華全球短期收益基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。<br>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":0,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華全球短期收益基金-美元 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":0,"fundSize_TWD":"66524207.248200","roi3m":"-0.32%","roi6m":"0.72%","roi1y":"3.02%","roi2y":"7.05%","roi3y":"8.48%","roiLaunch":"11.16%","roiY2D":"-0.32%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"黃媛君","isShow":0,"experience":"<p>黃媛君經理人的簡介</p>"}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":2503,"guid":"871b7bf7-951a-46c3-a235-0b74f625161f","articleCategory":"理財觀念","title":"【債市觀察】殖利率相近、波動更低，短天期債券成投資好物！","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">自從川普在11月初贏得美國總統大選後，美國公債價格走勢便隨其政策震盪起伏，若您想要布局波動度較低，又能兼顧較高品質、較高殖利率的債券商品，建議可聚焦短天期投資等級債券，並當作「金複合(母子基金)投資法」的母基金！&nbsp;<br>(投資人因不同時間進場，將有不同之投資績效，過去之績效亦不代表未來績效之保證。)</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國公債市場受川普政策牽動，波動度可能上升</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國公債殖利率於美國大選後衝高，反映市場擔憂川普政策恐將推升通膨和赤字，但隨著就業、通膨等經濟數據顯示Fed仍可望維持降息趨勢，加上美國新任財長提名人Scott Bessent的333計畫降低赤字，使得美國公債殖利率又呈現下滑！</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">展望後市，川普這項人事安排對美國財政赤字及通膨可能產生什麼影響？以下是復華投信的看法及投資建議：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">Bessent「333」主張，可望減少美國財政赤字</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">主張1</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">藉由凍結國防以外的必要支出，並且減少不必要的補助，計畫在2028年之前將財政赤字占GDP比重降至3%（低於美國國會預算辦公室在2024年6月時所預估的6.5% ~ 6.9%）。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">主張2</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">藉由放寬監管，讓美國經濟成長率達到3%。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">主張3</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">美國每日多生產300萬桶原油（有利於壓抑通膨）。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">通膨復燃的可能性淡化，美債短線區間盤整</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據資料顯示，美國各天期公債殖利率自9月下旬以來呈現上揚走勢，主要反映川普政策可能加重財政赤字與通膨的可能影響，市場對於Fed的降息速度預期，也有所放慢；然而在主張推行333政策、奉行財政紀律的Scott Bessent被提名擔任財長後，有助於淡化川普激進政策的衝擊，美債的短線走勢轉向區間盤整。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">目前市場認為12月18日Fed降息與不降息的機率約各半，在此之前市場可能靜待結果公布，近期美國公債殖利率走勢偏向於區間盤整，未來待更多的政策細節公布；研判美國債券市場對於財政赤字的控制更有信心，將有助於帶動美債殖利率下滑、價格走揚。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">短天期債券成投資好選擇</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">從投資角度觀察，目前長天期及短天期債券的殖利率相近，根據Bloomberg統計至2024/12/10，美國2年期公債殖利率4.15%與10年期的4.22%相近，甚至高於5年期的4.09%(如下表)。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202412/20241212-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2024/12/10。&nbsp;<br><strong>債券殖利率不代表基金投資組合實際配置情形及實際投資報酬率，投資人仍須留意價格波動。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">復華投信建議，目前短天期債券的息收與長期天債券相近，而且價格波動較低，為因應川普政策的不確定性，短天期債券會是收息且變數較少的投資好選擇！</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202412/20241212-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">以ICE BofA之債券指數為例。年化波動度：以該指數每日報酬率之標準差進行年化(一年以250日估算)。資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2024/11/15。&nbsp;<br><strong>債券殖利率不代表基金投資組合實際配置情形及實際投資報酬率，投資人仍須留意價格波動。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>「以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。本資料僅供參考，不代表投資績效之保證。投資人申購基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不代表基金之績效，基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書」</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"美國準財長Scott Bessent「333」主張是什麼？對美國財政赤字及通膨可能產生什麼影響？研判美國債券市場對於財政赤字的控制更有信心，將有助於帶動美債殖利率下滑、價格走揚。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202412/view-95.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"債券,金複合,全球","postTime":"2024/12/12 10:21:49","startTime":"2024-12-12T10:21:49.8670000+08:00","metaTitle":"利率相近、波動更低，短天期債券成投資好物｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2024-12-12T10:41:03.7200000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"591827f3-069c-4c4c-8ab8-0797694614af","category":{"id":20969,"guid":"591827f3-069c-4c4c-8ab8-0797694614af","name":"理財觀念","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/inv-activity","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/inv-activity/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"投資脈動","metaTitle":"理財觀念｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/36d97bc5-1a4c-4c5a-a8df-267460a8f4b5B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12357,"guid":"f8810b16-51fb-4aca-a40e-ecea20f2ca9e","name":"理財觀念","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/inv-activity/871b7bf7-951a-46c3-a235-0b74f625161f"},{"id":2479,"guid":"79a14e31-b72a-4f1b-8097-8feab962704d","articleCategory":"理財觀念","title":"短天期投資等級債，川普2.0時代的投資好選擇","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">觀察今(2024)年以來美國債券市場，短天期債券表現與美國聯準會(Fed)的降息動作亦步亦趨，且其價格波動度較低，累積報酬率甚至優於10年以上的長天期債券。如今美國公債殖利率再度來到波段高位，預期接下來長天期債券走向將受川普政策牽動，並使波動度可能上升，研判<strong>短天期投資等級債券，相對是兼顧較高品質、較高殖利率、較低價格波動的選擇</strong>。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">短債受惠降息，並具有較少的不確定性</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據Bloomberg截至2024/11/15資料顯示，美國10年期公債殖利率只比2年期高出13個基本點(bps，0.01%)，意味著短債有相似的息收，但較低的價格波動。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">而觀察債券價格長期走勢，長天期債券價格易受通膨預期及財政赤字影響，如今川普政策可能將帶來不確定性與波動性，短天期債券便成為變數較少的投資選擇，尤其目前債券殖利率仍處於相對高位，加上Fed政策利率高出通膨率約2個百分點，在預期未來一年仍是降息趨勢的情況下，短天期債券可望直接受惠。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">目前美國長短天期利差窄，而短債表現主要受Fed升降息牽動</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202411/20241120-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>債券殖利率不代表基金投資組合實際配置情形及實際投資報酬率，投資人仍須留意價格波動。</strong> 以ICE BofA之債券指數為例。年化波動度：以該指數每日報酬率之標準差進行年化(一年以250日估算)。資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2024/11/15。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">市場預期未來一年可能降息3碼</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">相較於川普在2017年至2021年擔任美國總統期間，當時的財政政策與目前的政見有二個主要差異，分別為企業減稅範圍跟幅度縮小，以及關稅擴大，而整體則可能使美國債務占比上升，根據研究機構預期美國債務占GDP比重在未來10年可能增加至128%~160%，因此從美國公債供給量增加的角度來看，市場普遍認為美債殖利率將呈現上揚走勢。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">川普2.0的政見對未來十年政府債務佔GDP比重的影響</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202411/20241120-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget，2024年10月。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">然而目前美債殖利率已反映財政赤字可能增加而提前上揚，市場則預期未來一年可能降息3碼，降息步調雖可能較之前預期的放緩，但2025年降息趨勢仍在。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">利率期貨市場反映的Fed降息機率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202411/20241120-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：FedWatch，截至2024/11/15。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>「以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。本資料僅供參考，不代表投資績效之保證。投資人申購基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不代表基金之績效，基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書」</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"美債殖利率再度來到波段高位，鑒於降息環境及因應川普就任後的不確定因素，短天期債券將是收息且變數較少的投資好選擇！","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202411/view-50.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"母子基金,債券,全球","postTime":"2024/11/21 09:54:44","startTime":"2024-11-21T09:54:44.3000000+08:00","metaTitle":"短天期投資等級債，川普2.0時代的投資好選擇｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2024-11-21T09:59:22.3500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"591827f3-069c-4c4c-8ab8-0797694614af","category":{"id":20969,"guid":"591827f3-069c-4c4c-8ab8-0797694614af","name":"理財觀念","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/inv-activity","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/inv-activity/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"投資脈動","metaTitle":"理財觀念｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/36d97bc5-1a4c-4c5a-a8df-267460a8f4b5B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12357,"guid":"f8810b16-51fb-4aca-a40e-ecea20f2ca9e","name":"理財觀念","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/inv-activity/79a14e31-b72a-4f1b-8097-8feab962704d"}],"news01":[{"id":2503,"guid":"871b7bf7-951a-46c3-a235-0b74f625161f","articleCategory":"理財觀念","title":"【債市觀察】殖利率相近、波動更低，短天期債券成投資好物！","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">自從川普在11月初贏得美國總統大選後，美國公債價格走勢便隨其政策震盪起伏，若您想要布局波動度較低，又能兼顧較高品質、較高殖利率的債券商品，建議可聚焦短天期投資等級債券，並當作「金複合(母子基金)投資法」的母基金！&nbsp;<br>(投資人因不同時間進場，將有不同之投資績效，過去之績效亦不代表未來績效之保證。)</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國公債市場受川普政策牽動，波動度可能上升</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國公債殖利率於美國大選後衝高，反映市場擔憂川普政策恐將推升通膨和赤字，但隨著就業、通膨等經濟數據顯示Fed仍可望維持降息趨勢，加上美國新任財長提名人Scott Bessent的333計畫降低赤字，使得美國公債殖利率又呈現下滑！</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">展望後市，川普這項人事安排對美國財政赤字及通膨可能產生什麼影響？以下是復華投信的看法及投資建議：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">Bessent「333」主張，可望減少美國財政赤字</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">主張1</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">藉由凍結國防以外的必要支出，並且減少不必要的補助，計畫在2028年之前將財政赤字占GDP比重降至3%（低於美國國會預算辦公室在2024年6月時所預估的6.5% ~ 6.9%）。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">主張2</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">藉由放寬監管，讓美國經濟成長率達到3%。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">主張3</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">美國每日多生產300萬桶原油（有利於壓抑通膨）。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">通膨復燃的可能性淡化，美債短線區間盤整</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據資料顯示，美國各天期公債殖利率自9月下旬以來呈現上揚走勢，主要反映川普政策可能加重財政赤字與通膨的可能影響，市場對於Fed的降息速度預期，也有所放慢；然而在主張推行333政策、奉行財政紀律的Scott Bessent被提名擔任財長後，有助於淡化川普激進政策的衝擊，美債的短線走勢轉向區間盤整。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">目前市場認為12月18日Fed降息與不降息的機率約各半，在此之前市場可能靜待結果公布，近期美國公債殖利率走勢偏向於區間盤整，未來待更多的政策細節公布；研判美國債券市場對於財政赤字的控制更有信心，將有助於帶動美債殖利率下滑、價格走揚。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">短天期債券成投資好選擇</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">從投資角度觀察，目前長天期及短天期債券的殖利率相近，根據Bloomberg統計至2024/12/10，美國2年期公債殖利率4.15%與10年期的4.22%相近，甚至高於5年期的4.09%(如下表)。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202412/20241212-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2024/12/10。&nbsp;<br><strong>債券殖利率不代表基金投資組合實際配置情形及實際投資報酬率，投資人仍須留意價格波動。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">復華投信建議，目前短天期債券的息收與長期天債券相近，而且價格波動較低，為因應川普政策的不確定性，短天期債券會是收息且變數較少的投資好選擇！</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202412/20241212-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">以ICE BofA之債券指數為例。年化波動度：以該指數每日報酬率之標準差進行年化(一年以250日估算)。資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2024/11/15。&nbsp;<br><strong>債券殖利率不代表基金投資組合實際配置情形及實際投資報酬率，投資人仍須留意價格波動。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>「以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。本資料僅供參考，不代表投資績效之保證。投資人申購基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不代表基金之績效，基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書」</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"美國準財長Scott Bessent「333」主張是什麼？對美國財政赤字及通膨可能產生什麼影響？研判美國債券市場對於財政赤字的控制更有信心，將有助於帶動美債殖利率下滑、價格走揚。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202412/view-95.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"債券,金複合,全球","postTime":"2024/12/12 10:21:49","startTime":"2024-12-12T10:21:49.8670000+08:00","metaTitle":"利率相近、波動更低，短天期債券成投資好物｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2024-12-12T10:41:03.7200000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"591827f3-069c-4c4c-8ab8-0797694614af","category":{"id":20969,"guid":"591827f3-069c-4c4c-8ab8-0797694614af","name":"理財觀念","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/inv-activity","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/inv-activity/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"投資脈動","metaTitle":"理財觀念｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/36d97bc5-1a4c-4c5a-a8df-267460a8f4b5B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12357,"guid":"f8810b16-51fb-4aca-a40e-ecea20f2ca9e","name":"理財觀念","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/inv-activity/871b7bf7-951a-46c3-a235-0b74f625161f"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/67.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/67.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/67.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=67","url2":"","file01":""},"ec413":"","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"2016/04/15","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1069,"updateTime":"2025-01-07T10:34:13.3130000+08:00","guid":"79b8b90a-a95d-4cc9-91ae-fe6afbb1a805","fundID":"25","twNameFull":"復華全球短期收益基金-新臺幣","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa Global Short-Term Income Fund-TWD","ec002":"(本基金有一定比重得投資於非投資等級之高風險債券)","twName":"全球短期收益新臺幣","pnav":"13.1254","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"-0.0008","changeRange":"-0.01%","qnav_l":4,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">主要投資於投資等級短天期債券，根據債券收益率、信用價差、市場波動與資產相關性等，建構出風險較分散的投資組合。</li><li 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復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"1492060425.000000","roi3m":"0.33%","roi6m":"2.90%","roi1y":"-0.14%","roi2y":"5.60%","roi3y":"6.79%","roiLaunch":"31.62%","roiY2D":"0.33%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"1","value02":"1","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"黃媛君","isShow":0,"experience":"<p>黃媛君經理人的簡介</p>"}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":1618,"guid":"01c2c8ab-1737-467f-9ee6-7a1d8f4be653","articleCategory":"首頁推薦基金文章","title":"有望受惠 Fed 降息機會，且短債較不易受川普政策干擾","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">布局重點</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>投資等級債為主，較好的信用品質。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>短天期債券為主，累積利息，價格波動度較低。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>有望受惠Fed降息機會，且短債較不易受川普政策干擾。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">市場觀察：目前預期美伊戰事不會延續太久，對油價與通膨中長期影響有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">美國與伊朗戰事對金融市場的可能影響</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2026年2月28日，美國與以色列聯手對伊朗發動軍事行動，擊斃伊朗最高領袖哈米尼及多位高層官員。伊朗於3月2日宣布封鎖荷姆茲海峽，干擾原油運輸來進行報復。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>本次美國展現精準的軍事攻擊能力，美伊雙方軍備差距大，預期戰事不易延續太久，伊朗長期封鎖荷姆茲海峽的可能性也不大，則油價漲勢可能受限，對通膨與貨幣政策的影響也有限，股市短期震盪後將回到基本面的上升趨勢。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">AI樂觀發展，大型科技廠競逐商機，持續大舉投資</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在近期Google因大型語言模型市占率上升，以及自研晶片外售商機，再加上股價評價亦仍合理，成為大型科技AI股領頭羊。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>不過，Nvidia持續布局未來AI各領域應用，除了新AI晶片持續發展、效能將進一步提升外，亦與不同產業公司合作開發AI應用平台，並延伸至機器人等領域之通用晶片發展，在AI仍處發展初期，應用層面將不斷擴大之下，Nvidia及Google等各大科技廠，持續在不同領域投資發展下，皆仍有發揮空間及舞台。上週Meta亦宣布縮減元宇宙之投資，持續將資源更集中至AI領域發展。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><strong>個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">年底FED升息預期機率一度升至四成，壓抑股、債市表現</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美股下跌因素主要來自於美、伊戰爭所引發的風險情緒趨避、油價上漲、通膨預期可能上升，以及所延伸的美國聯準會(FED)不再降息或轉為升息政策，並使近期美國公債殖利率持續攀升，進而影響了美國股市評價。&nbsp;<br><br>而戰爭是否真能如川普所述於短期內結束，以及若伊朗持續封鎖荷姆茲海峽時間過長，將不利長期油價及原物料價格與通膨走向。&nbsp;<br><br>因油價上升將帶動通膨增速上升，上週年底前FED升息預期機率一度升至四成以上。目前利率期貨顯示，FED於年底前維持目前政策利率水準(3.5%至3.75%)不變的機率為72%，預期降息的機率僅剩3%，升息預期機率反而至近25%(CME,2026/3/27)，使得近期美股評價及債市表現持續受到壓抑。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">FED於年底前升降息之機率預期(利率期貨2026/12/9):年底前升息預期出現，壓抑股市評價</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">FED升息政策</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">可能機率</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">降息一碼</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.0%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">維持利率不變&nbsp;<br>(3.50~3.75%)</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">72.4%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">升息一碼</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">22.2%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">升息兩碼</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2.3%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">升息三碼</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">0.1%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：CME，2026/3/27。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"債券殖利率在長期相對高位，預期Fed貨幣政策方向仍是降息，短天期債券是收息且變數較少的投資好選擇。","url":"","urlType":"","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202301/view-21.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"債券,全球,退休","postTime":"2026/03/30 17:10:57","startTime":"2026-03-30T17:11:00.9200000+08:00","status":0,"metaTitle":"升息循環已到後段，迎來「短債」甜蜜點 - 全球短期收益｜投資觀點，復華投信-享退休找復華","metaDescription":"","metaKeyword":"","value01":0,"value02":"","value03":"","value04":"","value05":"","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-30T17:11:05.7730000+08:00","files":"","canEdit":false,"isFund":0,"isMFund":0,"isMedia":0,"isArticle":0,"isDividend":0,"dividendType":"","dividendRoute":"","categoryGuid":"8c2a02e2-f52a-46ea-a71f-b90e4ae0985e","category":{"id":21010,"guid":"8c2a02e2-f52a-46ea-a71f-b90e4ae0985e","name":"首頁推薦基金文章","parentGuid":"","route":"/insights_list/article_list/recommend_content?page=1","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/recommend_content/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"","isEnabled":1,"show":0,"showm":0,"description":"","metaTitle":"","metaDescription":"","metaKeyword":"","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/ea975eaf-ace7-4d37-b0e2-22ee851cc211G.logo.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12317,"guid":"e12e95d7-9076-4c93-a599-74a24cdaf632","name":"首頁推薦基金文章","parentGuid":"","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/recommend_content/01c2c8ab-1737-467f-9ee6-7a1d8f4be653"},{"id":2992,"guid":"9e9451c5-70ee-4351-9824-d1277f802a9e","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"AI投資進入關鍵轉折：市場焦點由資本支出轉向變現能力","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2025年以來，AI類股延續強勁走勢，成為全球市場焦點。其背後核心動能，主要來自多家科技巨頭持續上修資本支出計畫；無論是資料中心、先進製程或算力基礎建設，投入規模皆超出市場預期，進而推升相關供應鏈股價，並強化市場對AI長期成長的信心。以2025年10月高點計算，標普500資訊科技指數於2025年最高曾累積上漲32%，並帶動標普500指數最高上漲18%（圖一）。&nbsp;<br><br>然而，約自2025年11月起，市場投資焦點開始由「投入規模」轉向「投資回收」。高額資本支出能否進一步轉化為具體且可持續的營收與獲利，成為評價的關鍵；市場不再只關注「誰投得多、投得快」，而是更進一步追問「投資何時回收、報酬率是否合理」。本文將說明AI產業對整體股市與經濟的重要性，並從投資邏輯的轉變出發，整理後續應關注的核心指標，以掌握AI類股及整體股市投資循環的最新進展。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖一：2025年，標普500資訊科技指數與標普500指數累積報酬率走勢圖</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202602/20260202-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/1/1~2025/12/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI已成為牽動企業獲利、股市走勢與景氣循環的核心變數</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">隨著AI技術持續滲透至各產業，AI的影響層面，已從企業資本支出擴張，延伸至就業市場，乃至整體經濟結構的改變。AI已不再只是科技板塊中的一個題材，而是演變為支撐美國經濟的重要力量。&nbsp;<br><br>隨著AI應用深化，AI正逐步取代重複性質高、標準化程度高的工作內容，使企業提升營運效率與降低成本，推動整體勞動生產力提升。在資本市場方面，科技類股在標普500指數中的權重持續攀升，AI相關個股比重較高的資訊科技類股佔標普500指數約34%，已成為推升大盤的重要力量（圖二）。&nbsp;<br><br>AI類股的強勢表現，不僅拉動整體股價指數上行，也透過股市上漲所形成的「財富效果」，間接支撐高資產族群的消費意願與風險偏好，進而降低景氣放緩的壓力。&nbsp;<br><br>由於美股結構高度集中於科技與AI產業，相關股價波動更容易外溢至整體景氣循環。當AI驅動的獲利成長動能回饋至家庭財富與企業信心時，將形成正向循環，強化美國經濟韌性；反之，若投資回報不如預期，其負面影響亦可能被放大。因此，AI發展已不僅是科技產業議題，而是牽動企業獲利、資本市場表現與總體經濟循環的核心變數。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖二：標普500指數之資訊科技產業佔比走勢</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202602/20260202-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/12/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI資本支出高檔延續，但市場焦點轉向融資結構與投資回收</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2026年美國五大雲端服務業者（CSP）總資本支出預估達5,161億美元，年增速約40%，整體仍可望維持高成長（圖三）。不過值得留意的是，近期資料中心與AI算力擴張更常透過籌資，或與關鍵客戶簽訂長期合作合約推進，顯示企業資金來源正逐步由自有現金轉向外部融資與策略聯盟。&nbsp;<br><br>此一轉變有助加快投資節奏並提升商業化推進效率，但也使市場更聚焦於財務槓桿、現金流穩定性與客戶集中風險。例如Oracle營收高度集中於OpenAI，若後續需求或合作規模不如預期，Oracle鉅額資本投入恐面臨投報率下修壓力。&nbsp;<br><br>在此背景下，投資人對風險的容忍度明顯下降，AI相關個股的股價反應更依賴基本面表現。以2025年第三季財報為例，Meta雖持續擴大資本支出，但獲利未達市場預期，且長期展望未獲上修，股價因而承壓；相較之下，Alphabet同樣上修2026年資本支出，同時維持穩健獲利，股價表現相對抗跌。&nbsp;<br><br>上述對比反映，市場評價已由「投資規模」轉向「投資回收與獲利貢獻」，後續個股股價走勢料將更看重變現能力、成本控管與現金流品質，並使個股表現呈現更明顯的差異化。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖三：近十年，美國五大CSP企業資本支出金額</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202602/20260202-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg、各公司財報，2026/1/12。註：上圖之各年度係採各公司之財會年度。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">投資邏輯轉向驗證，後續關注變現、現金流與風險訊號</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">隨著AI投資循環持續推進，市場評價重點已由單純的「資本支出是否持續擴張」轉向「投入能否有效回收」。後續可從以下五個面向掌握變化：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>資本支出預期是否持續上修：目前AI基礎建設投資仍在高檔，企業指引多偏延續或上修；市場除關注擴張是否延續外，也開始留意上修幅度與投資節奏是否出現放緩。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>資本支出占營收比重是否持續上升：前期資本支出攀升屬常態，但市場後續更在意營收成長能否接棒；若資本支出續升而營收未能同步跟上，往往意味回收期拉長、資本效率下降（圖四）。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>自由現金流是否改善：現階段企業間差異加大，市場不再只看投入規模，而是檢視自由現金流能否維持韌性；對自由現金流明顯走弱者，市場通常會放大對財務壓力與回收遞延的疑慮（圖五）。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/4.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>需求與收入的「真實度」：目前需求動能仍在，但市場更要求收入與毛利能隨用量成長而同步改善；若使用量擴張未能帶動收入、毛利提升，變現效果仍待驗證。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/5.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>股票評價與價格行為：在評價水準偏高的背景下，股價對財報與指引更為敏感；近期常見的分化是獲利與現金流能見度較高者較有支撐，反之則較易出現利多不漲、波動放大的情況。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">整體而言，AI投資循環已進入「效率與回收」的驗證期；能將資本支出有效轉化為可持續的現金流與獲利者較能延續正向趨勢，而回收節奏不清或變現品質不足者，較易面臨評價修正與波動放大。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖四：美國五大CSP資本支出/營收</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202602/20260202-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025年第三季。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖五：美國五大CSP自由現金流</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202602/20260202-5.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025年第三季。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI仍是多頭關鍵，惟個股分歧加大，建議維持資產均衡配置</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">整體而言，AI仍是支撐美股多頭的重要支柱。科技與AI相關企業在美股比重持續提高，其表現將持續牽動市場情緒與資金配置方向；就目前各項觀察指標而言，AI的長期成長趨勢仍然成立。&nbsp;<br><br>然而，在累積漲幅已高、且投資循環進入「效率與回收」驗證期的背景下，AI相關個股表現分歧料將擴大，股價對消息面與財報結果的敏感度亦同步提升。&nbsp;<br><br>未來，企業能否將高額投資有效轉化為可持續的現金流與獲利，將是市場評價的核心。基於此，投資策略上不宜過度集中於單一題材或個股，建議採取分散且均衡的資產配置，以降低短期波動對投資組合的影響。&nbsp;<br><strong>(以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">主要股債市展望及說明</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">已開發股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">美國勞動市場景氣偏弱，但貨幣政策與財政政策同步寬鬆，將使2026年經濟維持穩定增長。AI投資與應用持續發展，並無泡沫疑慮，且2026年企業獲利增長持續加速，中期股市多頭趨勢並未改變。不過全球股市主要指數評價仍略為偏高，短期內仍可能出現震盪風險。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">新興股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">新興市場貨幣政策寬鬆帶動景氣回升，企業獲利增長加速、評價仍相對低於已開發股市，多頭趨勢可望持續。然而，仍須留意股市短期內可能出現的漲多回檔風險，並密切關注川普關稅政策的後續發展對新興市場的潛在影響。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">信用債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">信用利差已處相對低檔，加上AI等資本支出推升企業發債需求，預期利差缺乏大幅縮窄空間；但考量美國整體景氣仍維持溫和增長，信用利差大幅擴大的可能性亦不高，加上Fed仍處降息周期，整體環境仍有利信用債基金緩步走高。&nbsp;<br><br>其中，非投資等級債指數因存續期間較短、利率敏感度低，預期將有較佳的孳息效率，而新興市場債指數因存續期間較長，走勢往往較非投資等級債指數震盪，不過在當前利率風險有限且新興債指數殖利率仍高的環境下，故預期也將隨孳息而震盪向上。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">投資等級債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">國際油價低迷，加上美國勞動需求持續降溫、川普為挽救民心亦有壓低生活成本的動機及動作，上述因素共同抑制通膨上行風險，為Fed提供了進一步降息的政策空間。展望未來，考量到債市利率風險有限，且當前投資等級債殖利率仍高達4~5%，預期投資等級債基金總報酬仍有良好支撐。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">商品市場</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">隨著美國對委內瑞拉採取相關行動，市場預期委國原油或將逐步重返國際市場。不過，中東情勢仍是不確定因素，需密切觀察美國與伊朗緊張關係是否導致能源出口受阻，進而影響全球供需平衡。在多重地緣風險交織下，金價或將受避險需求支撐。整體而言，商品指數後續走勢仍需持續視後續區域局勢發展而定。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>投資新興市場應留意政治風險與經濟情勢變動之影響，波動性與風險程度可能較高。</strong>註：美國投資等級公司債係指彭博美國投資等級公司債指數、美國非投資等級公司債係指彭博美國非投資等級公司債指數、新興美元主權債係指彭博新興美元債指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。本資料僅供參考，不代表投資績效之保證。投資人申購基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不代表基金之績效，基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"2025年以來，AI類股的投資焦點，已逐漸由過往的「投入規模」轉向「投資回收」。高額資本支出能否進一步轉化為具體且可持續的營收與獲利，成為評價的關鍵。展望後市，AI仍是支撐美股多頭的重要支柱，但短期累積漲幅已高、且投資循環進入「效率與回收」驗證期的背景下，AI相關個股表現分歧料將擴大，股價對消息面與財報結果的敏感度亦將同步提升。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202602/view-99.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"全球,股票,債券","postTime":"2026/02/03 09:12:15","startTime":"2026-02-03T09:12:01.9800000+08:00","metaTitle":"AI投資進入關鍵轉折：市場焦點由資本支出轉向變現能力｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-02-03T09:13:20.9670000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/9e9451c5-70ee-4351-9824-d1277f802a9e"}],"news01":[{"id":2992,"guid":"9e9451c5-70ee-4351-9824-d1277f802a9e","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"AI投資進入關鍵轉折：市場焦點由資本支出轉向變現能力","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2025年以來，AI類股延續強勁走勢，成為全球市場焦點。其背後核心動能，主要來自多家科技巨頭持續上修資本支出計畫；無論是資料中心、先進製程或算力基礎建設，投入規模皆超出市場預期，進而推升相關供應鏈股價，並強化市場對AI長期成長的信心。以2025年10月高點計算，標普500資訊科技指數於2025年最高曾累積上漲32%，並帶動標普500指數最高上漲18%（圖一）。&nbsp;<br><br>然而，約自2025年11月起，市場投資焦點開始由「投入規模」轉向「投資回收」。高額資本支出能否進一步轉化為具體且可持續的營收與獲利，成為評價的關鍵；市場不再只關注「誰投得多、投得快」，而是更進一步追問「投資何時回收、報酬率是否合理」。本文將說明AI產業對整體股市與經濟的重要性，並從投資邏輯的轉變出發，整理後續應關注的核心指標，以掌握AI類股及整體股市投資循環的最新進展。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖一：2025年，標普500資訊科技指數與標普500指數累積報酬率走勢圖</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202602/20260202-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/1/1~2025/12/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI已成為牽動企業獲利、股市走勢與景氣循環的核心變數</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">隨著AI技術持續滲透至各產業，AI的影響層面，已從企業資本支出擴張，延伸至就業市場，乃至整體經濟結構的改變。AI已不再只是科技板塊中的一個題材，而是演變為支撐美國經濟的重要力量。&nbsp;<br><br>隨著AI應用深化，AI正逐步取代重複性質高、標準化程度高的工作內容，使企業提升營運效率與降低成本，推動整體勞動生產力提升。在資本市場方面，科技類股在標普500指數中的權重持續攀升，AI相關個股比重較高的資訊科技類股佔標普500指數約34%，已成為推升大盤的重要力量（圖二）。&nbsp;<br><br>AI類股的強勢表現，不僅拉動整體股價指數上行，也透過股市上漲所形成的「財富效果」，間接支撐高資產族群的消費意願與風險偏好，進而降低景氣放緩的壓力。&nbsp;<br><br>由於美股結構高度集中於科技與AI產業，相關股價波動更容易外溢至整體景氣循環。當AI驅動的獲利成長動能回饋至家庭財富與企業信心時，將形成正向循環，強化美國經濟韌性；反之，若投資回報不如預期，其負面影響亦可能被放大。因此，AI發展已不僅是科技產業議題，而是牽動企業獲利、資本市場表現與總體經濟循環的核心變數。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖二：標普500指數之資訊科技產業佔比走勢</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202602/20260202-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/12/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI資本支出高檔延續，但市場焦點轉向融資結構與投資回收</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2026年美國五大雲端服務業者（CSP）總資本支出預估達5,161億美元，年增速約40%，整體仍可望維持高成長（圖三）。不過值得留意的是，近期資料中心與AI算力擴張更常透過籌資，或與關鍵客戶簽訂長期合作合約推進，顯示企業資金來源正逐步由自有現金轉向外部融資與策略聯盟。&nbsp;<br><br>此一轉變有助加快投資節奏並提升商業化推進效率，但也使市場更聚焦於財務槓桿、現金流穩定性與客戶集中風險。例如Oracle營收高度集中於OpenAI，若後續需求或合作規模不如預期，Oracle鉅額資本投入恐面臨投報率下修壓力。&nbsp;<br><br>在此背景下，投資人對風險的容忍度明顯下降，AI相關個股的股價反應更依賴基本面表現。以2025年第三季財報為例，Meta雖持續擴大資本支出，但獲利未達市場預期，且長期展望未獲上修，股價因而承壓；相較之下，Alphabet同樣上修2026年資本支出，同時維持穩健獲利，股價表現相對抗跌。&nbsp;<br><br>上述對比反映，市場評價已由「投資規模」轉向「投資回收與獲利貢獻」，後續個股股價走勢料將更看重變現能力、成本控管與現金流品質，並使個股表現呈現更明顯的差異化。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖三：近十年，美國五大CSP企業資本支出金額</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202602/20260202-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg、各公司財報，2026/1/12。註：上圖之各年度係採各公司之財會年度。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">投資邏輯轉向驗證，後續關注變現、現金流與風險訊號</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">隨著AI投資循環持續推進，市場評價重點已由單純的「資本支出是否持續擴張」轉向「投入能否有效回收」。後續可從以下五個面向掌握變化：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>資本支出預期是否持續上修：目前AI基礎建設投資仍在高檔，企業指引多偏延續或上修；市場除關注擴張是否延續外，也開始留意上修幅度與投資節奏是否出現放緩。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>資本支出占營收比重是否持續上升：前期資本支出攀升屬常態，但市場後續更在意營收成長能否接棒；若資本支出續升而營收未能同步跟上，往往意味回收期拉長、資本效率下降（圖四）。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>自由現金流是否改善：現階段企業間差異加大，市場不再只看投入規模，而是檢視自由現金流能否維持韌性；對自由現金流明顯走弱者，市場通常會放大對財務壓力與回收遞延的疑慮（圖五）。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/4.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>需求與收入的「真實度」：目前需求動能仍在，但市場更要求收入與毛利能隨用量成長而同步改善；若使用量擴張未能帶動收入、毛利提升，變現效果仍待驗證。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/5.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>股票評價與價格行為：在評價水準偏高的背景下，股價對財報與指引更為敏感；近期常見的分化是獲利與現金流能見度較高者較有支撐，反之則較易出現利多不漲、波動放大的情況。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">整體而言，AI投資循環已進入「效率與回收」的驗證期；能將資本支出有效轉化為可持續的現金流與獲利者較能延續正向趨勢，而回收節奏不清或變現品質不足者，較易面臨評價修正與波動放大。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖四：美國五大CSP資本支出/營收</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202602/20260202-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025年第三季。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖五：美國五大CSP自由現金流</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202602/20260202-5.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025年第三季。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI仍是多頭關鍵，惟個股分歧加大，建議維持資產均衡配置</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">整體而言，AI仍是支撐美股多頭的重要支柱。科技與AI相關企業在美股比重持續提高，其表現將持續牽動市場情緒與資金配置方向；就目前各項觀察指標而言，AI的長期成長趨勢仍然成立。&nbsp;<br><br>然而，在累積漲幅已高、且投資循環進入「效率與回收」驗證期的背景下，AI相關個股表現分歧料將擴大，股價對消息面與財報結果的敏感度亦同步提升。&nbsp;<br><br>未來，企業能否將高額投資有效轉化為可持續的現金流與獲利，將是市場評價的核心。基於此，投資策略上不宜過度集中於單一題材或個股，建議採取分散且均衡的資產配置，以降低短期波動對投資組合的影響。&nbsp;<br><strong>(以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">主要股債市展望及說明</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">已開發股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">美國勞動市場景氣偏弱，但貨幣政策與財政政策同步寬鬆，將使2026年經濟維持穩定增長。AI投資與應用持續發展，並無泡沫疑慮，且2026年企業獲利增長持續加速，中期股市多頭趨勢並未改變。不過全球股市主要指數評價仍略為偏高，短期內仍可能出現震盪風險。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">新興股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">新興市場貨幣政策寬鬆帶動景氣回升，企業獲利增長加速、評價仍相對低於已開發股市，多頭趨勢可望持續。然而，仍須留意股市短期內可能出現的漲多回檔風險，並密切關注川普關稅政策的後續發展對新興市場的潛在影響。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">信用債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">信用利差已處相對低檔，加上AI等資本支出推升企業發債需求，預期利差缺乏大幅縮窄空間；但考量美國整體景氣仍維持溫和增長，信用利差大幅擴大的可能性亦不高，加上Fed仍處降息周期，整體環境仍有利信用債基金緩步走高。&nbsp;<br><br>其中，非投資等級債指數因存續期間較短、利率敏感度低，預期將有較佳的孳息效率，而新興市場債指數因存續期間較長，走勢往往較非投資等級債指數震盪，不過在當前利率風險有限且新興債指數殖利率仍高的環境下，故預期也將隨孳息而震盪向上。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">投資等級債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">國際油價低迷，加上美國勞動需求持續降溫、川普為挽救民心亦有壓低生活成本的動機及動作，上述因素共同抑制通膨上行風險，為Fed提供了進一步降息的政策空間。展望未來，考量到債市利率風險有限，且當前投資等級債殖利率仍高達4~5%，預期投資等級債基金總報酬仍有良好支撐。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">商品市場</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">隨著美國對委內瑞拉採取相關行動，市場預期委國原油或將逐步重返國際市場。不過，中東情勢仍是不確定因素，需密切觀察美國與伊朗緊張關係是否導致能源出口受阻，進而影響全球供需平衡。在多重地緣風險交織下，金價或將受避險需求支撐。整體而言，商品指數後續走勢仍需持續視後續區域局勢發展而定。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>投資新興市場應留意政治風險與經濟情勢變動之影響，波動性與風險程度可能較高。</strong>註：美國投資等級公司債係指彭博美國投資等級公司債指數、美國非投資等級公司債係指彭博美國非投資等級公司債指數、新興美元主權債係指彭博新興美元債指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。本資料僅供參考，不代表投資績效之保證。投資人申購基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不代表基金之績效，基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"2025年以來，AI類股的投資焦點，已逐漸由過往的「投入規模」轉向「投資回收」。高額資本支出能否進一步轉化為具體且可持續的營收與獲利，成為評價的關鍵。展望後市，AI仍是支撐美股多頭的重要支柱，但短期累積漲幅已高、且投資循環進入「效率與回收」驗證期的背景下，AI相關個股表現分歧料將擴大，股價對消息面與財報結果的敏感度亦將同步提升。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202602/view-99.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"全球,股票,債券","postTime":"2026/02/03 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復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"4647826004.000000","roi3m":"-0.38%","roi6m":"2.25%","roi1y":"-4.46%","roi2y":"-0.92%","roi3y":"-1.46%","roiLaunch":"48.83%","roiY2D":"-0.38%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"1","value02":"1","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"吳易欣","isShow":0,"experience":"簡歷簡歷簡歷簡歷簡歷"}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":3067,"guid":"6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 08:54:53","startTime":"2026-04-23T08:54:49.4100000+08:00","metaTitle":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-23T08:58:43.1630000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63"},{"id":3065,"guid":"a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美伊戰爭對股市影響降低</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週美國雖然宣布封鎖荷姆茲海峽，但並未改變股市上漲趨勢。由於美伊可望再重啟談判，且川普釋出已近達成協議，因此股市並未再受美伊戰爭發展，以及油價大幅波動所影響；而美國聯準會(FED)經濟褐皮書，以及週初請失業救濟金人數，皆顯示美國經濟穩定。&nbsp;<br><br>AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然週四台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong><br><br><strong>總計一週（2026/4/13-4/17）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲3.2%、4.5%、6.8%、7.5%；台股週漲3.9%以36804點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑5個bps至4.26%，美元指數跌0.5%至98.2，<strong><u>油價(WTI)週跌13.2%至每桶83.85美元</u></strong>，黃金價格反彈1.9%至每盎司4879.6美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI發展及美國經濟穩定支撐股市正向趨勢</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">因預期美伊可望達成協議，雖然油價仍維持高檔震盪，戰爭結束後包括受損煉油及天然氣設施亦仍需時間恢復，但股市反應未來，且美國能源自主性高，雖然短期物價增速亦將因此上揚，但中長期對油價的預期將可望維持穩定，中長期通膨預期亦未明顯上升。上週公佈的美國3月生產者物價指數(PPI)月增0.5%、核心PPI月增0.1%，皆低於預期。<br><br>FED公布經濟褐皮書，雖因油價上漲將產生潛在物價壓力，但美國整體經濟及就業仍維持穩定，週初請失業救濟金人數降至20.7萬人低檔，再加上AI的樂觀發展，美伊戰爭對美國經濟並未產生太大影響，利率期貨亦顯市FED於年底前可望維持利率不變。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台積電樂觀展望延續，台股長期多頭趨勢不變</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台積電法說會展望持續樂觀，受AI與高效能運算需求強勁帶動，3奈米製程加速擴產並成為成長主力。第一季營收與獲利表現亮眼，稅後淨利顯著成長，毛利率達66.2%並創新高，顯示先進製程帶動獲利能力提升。公司將資本支出展望提高至約520～560億美元偏向上緣上準，用於擴充先進製程與封裝產能。展望第二季，營收預估持續成長、年增率將達四成以上，毛利率維持高檔水準。<br><br>總括而言，台積電延續對於2026年業績展望三成以上成長的預測，且表示AI需求仍非常強勁，佔台股四成以上權重的台積電，以及台灣AI關鍵供應鏈角色的獨特地位，在AI由訓練開始進入推論驅動的階段，算力需求及相關基礎設施建立仍將快速成長，未來2~3年台股企業展望仍正向發展。選擇產品規格、數量、及價格同時提升的公司，繼續長期持有，仍是合適的投資方式。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-90.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/20 09:21:33","startTime":"2026-04-20T09:21:33.3330000+08:00","metaTitle":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-20T09:26:56.7500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea"}],"news01":[{"id":3067,"guid":"6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 08:54:53","startTime":"2026-04-23T08:54:49.4100000+08:00","metaTitle":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-23T08:58:43.1630000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/10.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/10.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=10","url2":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&Fund=10","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1079,"updateTime":"2025-08-15T15:01:13.1500000+08:00","guid":"c1698f65-cec8-460e-8f26-34361bef30f0","fundID":"40","twNameFull":"復華南非幣長期收益基金A類型","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa South Africa Fixed-Income ZAR Fund","ec002":"(本基金有一定比重得投資於非投資等級之高風險債券)","twName":"南非幣長期收益A","pnav":"27.99","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"-0.28","changeRange":"-0.99%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li>主要投資具有高息特性的南非中長天期債券，適合欲積極參與南非債市投資機會者。</li></ul><ul><li>本基金以南非幣計價，由投資人選擇合適的匯率時點投資， 並接受以新臺幣交易。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2012/12/11","ec006":"南非幣","ec010":"永豐商業銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"1.20%","ec013":"0.190%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資債券型","ec020_sort":5086,"ec022":"","ec024":"南非","ec026":"債券型","ec028":"","ec030":"T+6日","ec036":"永豐商業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華南非幣長期收益基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。<br>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華南非幣長期收益基金A類型 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":0,"fundSize_TWD":"206302477.851399","roi3m":"-4.11%","roi6m":"6.56%","roi1y":"22.93%","roi2y":"49.94%","roi3y":"50.28%","roiLaunch":"168.10%","roiY2D":"-4.11%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"吳宜潔","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":2858,"guid":"fb2fc2f6-1b59-4df8-b5e0-5e6aa28d6909","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"新興市場體質轉佳，債券信用改善下前景看好","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">新興國家經過十多年財政整頓，並積極改善經常帳赤字以促進經濟增長，2024年起信用品質轉佳，並獲得信評機構肯定，建議可布局新興市場短天期債券，除了價格波動度較低，也較不用在意美國關稅及美國聯準會(Fed)貨幣政策等變數。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">近年來新興國家財務體質好轉，償債能力提升</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">據統計，新興國家主權債平均信評從2013年的BB+升至目前BBB-，為歷史新高，同時間美國從AAA降至AA+，兩者信評差距收窄，有助於債券信用利差也會收窄，進而有利於新興市場債券前景。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">新興國家信用評等變化</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202509/20250925-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>*獨立國協，包含俄羅斯/亞馬尼亞/亞塞拜然/白俄羅斯/哈薩克/塔吉克/吉爾吉斯/塔吉克/烏茲別克等國。資料來源：Goldman Sachs，截至2024年底。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">此外，根據IMF預估新興國家2025、2026兩年的經濟成長也較美國更強勁，美國經濟成長率從去(2024)年2.8%大幅降至約2.0%，新興市場整體受關稅影響較低，預估今明兩年維持穩健經濟成長於4.1%、4.0%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">關稅政策後，IMF最新經濟成長預估</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202509/20250925-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，復華投信整理，2025/9。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">新興市場債券的相對價值仍高</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">從籌碼面來看，新興國家本地債市場逐漸蓬勃發展，許多國家近年來以發行本地債取代美元債進行融資，使得新興美元債在外流通量降低，而新興市場公司債在這幾年也減少發債，淨供給量為負（債券到期量大於債券發行量），新興公司債越來越稀缺。&nbsp;<br><br>進一步觀察新興市場公司的基本面，由於債務較低，具有較佳的償債能力，而且新興市場公司的現金充足，獲利能力亦佳。&nbsp;<br><br>值得留意的是，一般投資者對新興市場公司要求更高的債券殖利率，但實際上違約率卻長期低於美國公司，在違約率不高、槓桿又低，卻提供較高的利差的情況下，使投資人能夠享有較佳報酬風險比，而如今在全球開始分散投資的市況下，觀察最近兩季已看到資金回流新興市場的初徵兆。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"新興國家主權債平均信評上升至歷史新高，同時間美國從AAA降至AA+，兩者信評差距收窄，有利於新興市場債券前景。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202509/view-14.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"金複合,債券","postTime":"2025/09/25 10:45:52","startTime":"2025-09-25T10:45:52.4070000+08:00","metaTitle":"新興市場體質轉佳，債券信用改善下前景看好｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-09-25T10:52:13.4630000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/fb2fc2f6-1b59-4df8-b5e0-5e6aa28d6909"}],"news01":[{"id":2858,"guid":"fb2fc2f6-1b59-4df8-b5e0-5e6aa28d6909","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"新興市場體質轉佳，債券信用改善下前景看好","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">新興國家經過十多年財政整頓，並積極改善經常帳赤字以促進經濟增長，2024年起信用品質轉佳，並獲得信評機構肯定，建議可布局新興市場短天期債券，除了價格波動度較低，也較不用在意美國關稅及美國聯準會(Fed)貨幣政策等變數。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">近年來新興國家財務體質好轉，償債能力提升</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">據統計，新興國家主權債平均信評從2013年的BB+升至目前BBB-，為歷史新高，同時間美國從AAA降至AA+，兩者信評差距收窄，有助於債券信用利差也會收窄，進而有利於新興市場債券前景。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">新興國家信用評等變化</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202509/20250925-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>*獨立國協，包含俄羅斯/亞馬尼亞/亞塞拜然/白俄羅斯/哈薩克/塔吉克/吉爾吉斯/塔吉克/烏茲別克等國。資料來源：Goldman Sachs，截至2024年底。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">此外，根據IMF預估新興國家2025、2026兩年的經濟成長也較美國更強勁，美國經濟成長率從去(2024)年2.8%大幅降至約2.0%，新興市場整體受關稅影響較低，預估今明兩年維持穩健經濟成長於4.1%、4.0%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">關稅政策後，IMF最新經濟成長預估</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202509/20250925-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，復華投信整理，2025/9。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">新興市場債券的相對價值仍高</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">從籌碼面來看，新興國家本地債市場逐漸蓬勃發展，許多國家近年來以發行本地債取代美元債進行融資，使得新興美元債在外流通量降低，而新興市場公司債在這幾年也減少發債，淨供給量為負（債券到期量大於債券發行量），新興公司債越來越稀缺。&nbsp;<br><br>進一步觀察新興市場公司的基本面，由於債務較低，具有較佳的償債能力，而且新興市場公司的現金充足，獲利能力亦佳。&nbsp;<br><br>值得留意的是，一般投資者對新興市場公司要求更高的債券殖利率，但實際上違約率卻長期低於美國公司，在違約率不高、槓桿又低，卻提供較高的利差的情況下，使投資人能夠享有較佳報酬風險比，而如今在全球開始分散投資的市況下，觀察最近兩季已看到資金回流新興市場的初徵兆。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"新興國家主權債平均信評上升至歷史新高，同時間美國從AAA降至AA+，兩者信評差距收窄，有利於新興市場債券前景。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202509/view-14.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"金複合,債券","postTime":"2025/09/25 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style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li>本基金投資於新興市場政府或企業發行之債券，並以非投資等級為主，期能獲得長期較高之收益率。</li><li>觀察各國景氣動向、貨幣政策與市場波動，機動調整債券配置與存續期間，控制波動。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2011/05/06","ec006":"南非幣","ec010":"玉山商業銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"1.35%","ec013":"0.250%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資債券型","ec020_sort":5086,"ec022":"月配","ec024":"新興市場","ec026":"債券型","ec028":"","ec030":"T+6日","ec036":"玉山商業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華新興市場非投資等級債券基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec040":"每月底","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":1,"ec314":1,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p><p>表格所示為含息報酬率。走勢圖為不含息之績效。</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。<br>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"<p>註1：除透過基金銷售機構以自己名義為投資人申購或買回本基金、壽險業者之投資型保單申購或買回本基金或其他經經理公司同意者外，分配之給付金額未達南非幣1,000元時，受益人同意經理公司以該筆分配金額再申購本基金受益權單位。</p><p>註2：配息率並非等於基金報酬率，於獲配息時，宜一併注意基金淨值之變動。</p><p>註3：收益分配紀錄查詢區間不可超過三年。</p><p>註4：上述配息組成項目表中，可分配淨利益為信託契約所載之可分配收益扣除基金應負擔相關成本費用。本基金配息前未先完全扣除應負擔之相關費用，故配息可能涉及本金。</p>","ec410":"","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","renameArticle":"/services/news_list/content/news/c3a65ca8-b020-4df2-89ac-aeed0ccda836","metaTitle":"復華新興市場非投資等級債券基金-南非幣配息 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","f_DisEqual":"N","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":0,"fundSize_TWD":"12534296.551307","roi3m":"-1.67%","roi6m":"0.58%","roi1y":"8.65%","roi2y":"15.94%","roi3y":"29.68%","roiLaunch":"76.35%","roiY2D":"-1.67%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"2026/04/08","disType":"月配","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"施尚文","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[],"news01":[],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/50.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/50.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/50.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"","url2":"","file01":"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/docUpload/download/help/K3.pdf"},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、計算過去5年之淨值波動度，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"tradeForm":"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/docUpload/download/help/K3.pdf","isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"2014/10/14","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1032,"updateTime":"2024-07-15T08:59:37.5830000+08:00","guid":"e7589991-be96-4998-9f61-73d9fdceea8f","fundID":"32","twNameFull":"復華新興市場非投資等級債券基金-新臺幣A","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa Emerging Market High Yield Bond Fund - TWD A","ec002":"","twName":"新興市場非投資等級債券新臺幣A","pnav":"9.87","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"-0.02","changeRange":"-0.20%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">本基金投資於新興市場政府或企業發行之債券，並以非投資等級為主，期能獲得長期較高之收益。</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">觀察各國景氣動向、貨幣政策與市場波動，機動調整債券配置與存續期間，控制波動。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2011/05/06","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"玉山商業銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"1.35%","ec013":"0.250%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資債券型","ec020_sort":5086,"ec022":"","ec024":"新興市場","ec026":"債券型","ec028":"","ec030":"T+6日","ec036":"玉山商業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華新興市場非投資等級債券基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":1,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。<br>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","renameArticle":"/services/news_list/content/news/c3a65ca8-b020-4df2-89ac-aeed0ccda836?page=1","metaTitle":"復華新興市場非投資等級債券基金-新臺幣A ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"292646049.000000","roi3m":"-1.04%","roi6m":"3.15%","roi1y":"0.42%","roi2y":"8.83%","roi3y":"16.01%","roiLaunch":"-5.10%","roiY2D":"-1.04%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"施尚文","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":1866,"guid":"e8a77d4e-3ea8-46e1-b7a5-c8b2cccf270f","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"新興債市短線區間波動，後市看好拉美經濟及降息優勢！","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">新興美元債指數於今(2023)年來呈現區間波動，主因中國解封後的消費及投資需求並未持續成長，導致亞洲資產表現偏弱，壓抑新興市場債券的整體表現，展望後市則相對看好經濟快速復甦，並可望領先降息的拉美市場。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">新興債市今年來表現受壓抑</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">放眼今年來全球主要債券市場表現，新興債市的表現相對偏弱，主要是因為中國解封後消費和投資需求僅在第一季反彈，而且後繼無力，導致亞洲資產表現偏弱，壓抑新興市場債整體表現。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">新興國家經濟狀況仍相對穩健</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">從經濟基本面來看，新興國家受惠於生育率高、老齡化程度低，在就業人口維持高位的情況下，有助於壓抑薪資通膨，並促進長期經濟增長，觀察製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)，新興國家的景氣仍相對穩健。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\"> 新興市場與美國製造業PMI</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202306/20230623-1.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2017/6/7~2023/5/31。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">此外，國際貨幣組織(IMF)預估今明兩年新興國家經濟成長將優於已開發國家，整體新興國家經濟增速預估維持在約4%，有利債信轉佳。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">IMF預估2023年~2024年經濟增速</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202306/20230623-2.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：IMF，復華投信整理，2023/4。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">拉美經濟成長開始回歸強勁增長</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">回顧以往，拉丁美洲受惠中國興起及原物料開發加速，2002至2012年享受輝煌十年，但從2013原物料價格回跌後進入失落的十年，2020年疫情過後快速復甦，近兩年幾乎每季的經濟成長率都超越美國，主要有兩個原因：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">首先，拉美具有原物料生產優勢，戰爭與ESG議題有助於原物料供給秩序，其次是在中美角力的情況下，工廠移回美國後院間接促進USMCA(美墨加)貿易協議的簽訂，有助於激勵企業於墨西哥建立汽車業等生產基地出口至美國。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">2020年至今墨西哥、巴西、中國出口金額標準化</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202306/20230623-3.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2021/3/31~2023/3/31。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">拉美央行可望領先進入降息循環</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">進一步從貨幣政策來看，拉美各主要國家央行是最早升息也是最積極升息的地區，普遍從2021年中開始升息，各國升息幅度接近7%至11%，其餘區域多在2022年第二季開始升息，幅度約在3%至5%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">而提早升息使得拉美通膨快速回降，有助於拉美央行更早進入降息循環，預期最快今年第三季就會有部分國家將開始降息，有助於後續內需動能，而受惠通膨降溫，實質薪資從負轉正，也有助於恢復消費動能。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"拉美各國普遍從2021年中開始升息，而提早升息使得拉美通膨快速回降，有助於更早進入降息循環。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202306/view-48.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"全球,債券","postTime":"2023/06/24 00:00:00","startTime":"2023-06-24T00:00:00.0000000+08:00","metaTitle":"新興債市短線區間波動，後市看好拉美經濟及降息優勢｜投資觀點，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2023-06-26T07:32:12.2830000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/e8a77d4e-3ea8-46e1-b7a5-c8b2cccf270f"},{"id":1726,"guid":"a8f258cb-7824-4891-9ec6-4430840dcd3a","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"新興美元債回漲，反映低評價及經濟亮眼","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"foreword-3 pt-md-6 pb-md-7 px-md-12 py-sm-5 px-sm-3\"><div class=\"detail\"><div class=\"detail-list flex mb-5 align-items-start\"><div class=\"mt-1 mr-1\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/check.svg\"></div><p class=\"detail-list-info text-9-regular\">2023年全球通膨壓力下滑，各國央行可望在2023年第一季至第三季結束升息循環，但由於經濟狀況仍佳，降息時間點恐會延後，美國公債利率大幅下行的可能性降低。</p></div><div class=\"detail-list flex mb-5 align-items-start\"><div class=\"mt-1 mr-1\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/check.svg\"></div><p class=\"detail-list-info text-9-regular\">新興市場經濟狀況仍強健，且優於已開發國家，Fed不再強勢升息亦有助於資金回流新興市場，但個別新興國家的政治風險上升，包括通膨上揚、民怨升高、左派聲勢浩大，導致國家間表現分化，今年可能會有較大政治風險為土耳其，次高風險為巴西、南非。</p></div><div class=\"detail-list flex mb-5 align-items-start\"><div class=\"mt-1 mr-1\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/check.svg\"></div><p class=\"detail-list-info text-9-regular\">新興國家的企業持續降低槓桿、償還舊債，短期內亦無明顯償債壓力，預期新興高收益債的公司債違約率，若除去俄羅斯、烏克蘭與中國房地產，整體有望在3%以下，產業端從看好能源、原物料、金融轉往受惠降息產業如房地產、REITs、公用事業等。</p></div><div class=\"detail-list flex mb-5 align-items-start\"><div class=\"mt-1 mr-1\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/red/check.svg\"></div><p class=\"detail-list-info text-9-regular\">新興主權債利差已回歸到歷史均值，新興公司債與相較於美國同信評債券，其利差也在合理範圍，但受惠於經濟基本面良好，預期利差將可收窄至歷史平均以下。</p></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">新興美元主權債的信用風險下降</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">新興美元債指數去年最大跌幅一度高達-24.3%，但10~11月美國通膨加速下滑後反轉，回漲約三成跌幅，此外，新興債利差也快速收窄，目前已接近歷史平均水準，代表市場預期利率將從高點往下滑，債券的信用風險降低，反映現階段的低評價，以及新興市場經濟亮眼。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">新興美元主權債利差歷史走勢與標準差</div></div></div><figure><p class=\"imgSmall\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202302/20230222-1.png\"></p></figure><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，復華投信整理，2012/2/14~2023/2/14。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><strong>本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表未來實際情形。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國可能小幅經濟走低，但非衰退或硬著陸</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">觀察美國公債從2月初以來利率上揚，主要是反映衰退或硬著陸的風險降低，尤其1月份美國失業率降至3.4%，為53年來新低，ISM製造業指數雖然低迷，但非製造業已回到擴張水準，顯示美國經濟相對具有韌性。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國ISM製造業與非製造業指數</div></div></div><figure><p class=\"imgSmall\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202302/20230222-2.png\"></p></figure><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，復華投信整理，2017/2/15~2023/1/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">整體而言，由於通膨持續呈現下行趨勢，預期最具僵固性的房屋相關分項，其後續的數據也將走低，因此在通膨壓力趨緩的情況下，Fed並沒有再次大幅升息的必要性，美國公債利率再大幅上揚可能性也不大。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">新興國家經濟狀況穩健有利資金回流</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">國際貨幣基金(IMF)在最新經濟預估中，提高新興國家經濟成長率0.3個百分點至4.0%，其中去年較強的拉美與中東，今年成長力道稍弱，至於亞洲、非洲與新興歐洲則相對強勁，整體新興國家經濟狀況穩健，PMI也已回到50的擴張水準以上。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">預期今明兩年新興國家經濟表現會明顯優於已開發國家，利差有收斂到歷史均值以下的空間，而經濟相對強勁有助於整體資金回流新興市場，評估在各新興債資產中，新興高收益主權債相對較具有投資價值。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">新興市場綜合PMI指數</div></div></div><figure><p class=\"imgSmall\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202302/20230222-3.png\"></p></figure><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，復華投信整理，2017/2/15~2023/1/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我想看看最新優惠基金</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/funds/offer\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">&nbsp;</p>","summary":"新興美元債指數去年最大跌幅一度高達-24.3%，但10~11月美國通膨加速下滑後反轉，迄今回漲約三成跌幅，而新興債利差也快速收窄。","url":"","urlType":"","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202302/view-42.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"","postTime":"2023/02/23 09:01:44","startTime":"2023-02-23T09:01:38.5100000+08:00","status":0,"metaTitle":"新興美元債回漲，反映低評價及經濟亮眼｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","metaDescription":"","metaKeyword":"","value01":0,"value02":"","value03":"","value04":"","value05":"","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2023-02-23T09:01:54.3000000+08:00","files":"","canEdit":false,"isFund":0,"isMFund":0,"isMedia":0,"isArticle":0,"isDividend":0,"dividendType":"","dividendRoute":"","categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/a8f258cb-7824-4891-9ec6-4430840dcd3a"}],"news01":[{"id":1866,"guid":"e8a77d4e-3ea8-46e1-b7a5-c8b2cccf270f","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"新興債市短線區間波動，後市看好拉美經濟及降息優勢！","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">新興美元債指數於今(2023)年來呈現區間波動，主因中國解封後的消費及投資需求並未持續成長，導致亞洲資產表現偏弱，壓抑新興市場債券的整體表現，展望後市則相對看好經濟快速復甦，並可望領先降息的拉美市場。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">新興債市今年來表現受壓抑</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">放眼今年來全球主要債券市場表現，新興債市的表現相對偏弱，主要是因為中國解封後消費和投資需求僅在第一季反彈，而且後繼無力，導致亞洲資產表現偏弱，壓抑新興市場債整體表現。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">新興國家經濟狀況仍相對穩健</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">從經濟基本面來看，新興國家受惠於生育率高、老齡化程度低，在就業人口維持高位的情況下，有助於壓抑薪資通膨，並促進長期經濟增長，觀察製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)，新興國家的景氣仍相對穩健。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\"> 新興市場與美國製造業PMI</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202306/20230623-1.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2017/6/7~2023/5/31。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">此外，國際貨幣組織(IMF)預估今明兩年新興國家經濟成長將優於已開發國家，整體新興國家經濟增速預估維持在約4%，有利債信轉佳。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">IMF預估2023年~2024年經濟增速</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202306/20230623-2.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：IMF，復華投信整理，2023/4。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">拉美經濟成長開始回歸強勁增長</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">回顧以往，拉丁美洲受惠中國興起及原物料開發加速，2002至2012年享受輝煌十年，但從2013原物料價格回跌後進入失落的十年，2020年疫情過後快速復甦，近兩年幾乎每季的經濟成長率都超越美國，主要有兩個原因：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">首先，拉美具有原物料生產優勢，戰爭與ESG議題有助於原物料供給秩序，其次是在中美角力的情況下，工廠移回美國後院間接促進USMCA(美墨加)貿易協議的簽訂，有助於激勵企業於墨西哥建立汽車業等生產基地出口至美國。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">2020年至今墨西哥、巴西、中國出口金額標準化</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202306/20230623-3.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2021/3/31~2023/3/31。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">拉美央行可望領先進入降息循環</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">進一步從貨幣政策來看，拉美各主要國家央行是最早升息也是最積極升息的地區，普遍從2021年中開始升息，各國升息幅度接近7%至11%，其餘區域多在2022年第二季開始升息，幅度約在3%至5%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">而提早升息使得拉美通膨快速回降，有助於拉美央行更早進入降息循環，預期最快今年第三季就會有部分國家將開始降息，有助於後續內需動能，而受惠通膨降溫，實質薪資從負轉正，也有助於恢復消費動能。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"拉美各國普遍從2021年中開始升息，而提早升息使得拉美通膨快速回降，有助於更早進入降息循環。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202306/view-48.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"全球,債券","postTime":"2023/06/24 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style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">投資組合可適度搭配非投資等級債券以提升收益，或搭配已開發國家債券以提升投資組合安全性。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2011/05/06","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"第一商業銀行","ec009":"RR3","ec012":"1.00%","ec013":"0.160%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資債券型","ec020_sort":5086,"ec022":"","ec024":"新興市場","ec026":"債券型","ec028":"","ec030":"T+3日","ec036":"第一商業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華新興市場短期收益基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":1,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。<br>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":1,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華新興市場短期收益基金 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"1259483197.000000","roi3m":"-0.57%","roi6m":"2.88%","roi1y":"0.08%","roi2y":"6.03%","roi3y":"8.01%","roiLaunch":"21.40%","roiY2D":"-0.57%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"1","value02":"1","value03":"1","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"吳宜潔","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":2955,"guid":"55633c30-f74c-408a-b84c-965fc0679ad2","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"FED降息循環將延續、經濟成長動能優於預期，股市震盪走升","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市持續震盪走高，雖然處於歐美聖誕假期階段，但在前週美國公布11月份通膨數據增速低於預期，確保美國聯準會(FED)維持降息循環，股市風險情緒轉穩並延續上揚走勢，指數也重回歷史新高水準。尤其AI具實質需求及業績支撐，AI泡沫疑慮降低，AI族群股價再轉強，帶動股市信心回復。&nbsp;<br><br>而延遲公布的2025年第三季美國經濟成長年增率達4.3%，在消費及投資成長支撐下優於預期，週初請失業救濟金人數21.4萬人，亦仍維持穩定且低於預期，提振投資人信心，並支撐企業獲利成長動能之維持。<br><br>總計一週(2025/12/22~12/26)美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲1.2%、1.4%、1.2%、2.0%，台股一週上漲3.1%以28,556點收盤。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下跌2個基本點(bps,1個基本點=0.01%)至4.14%，美元指數走低0.7%至98.02，油價(WTI)則一週小漲0.3%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">三大因素持續支撐2026年股市正向發展</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">支撐2026年股市正向展望的三大因素延續，在此三大因素未改變前，並不會改變股市長多趨勢。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">AI持續樂觀發展，且尚處發展早期階段</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">雖然部分投資人開始擔憂AI是否出現泡沫的疑慮，但從多方面觀察，目前AI仍僅處於發展初期，算力建置投資是否過剩，以及評價是否過高之疑慮，皆尚言之過早。主要因素包括：<br><br>(1) AI使用人數仍呈指數級上升階段；<br>(2) 企業AI使用滲透率亦仍處初期持續上升階段；<br>(3) AI算力需求急速上升，美國資料中心空置率僅有2%的低水準；<br>(4) 大型科技公司龐大AI投資，具有本業強大營運模式及營運現金流支撐，在高進入障礙、龐大客戶基礎支撐下，企業獲利仍將維持高成長動能；<br>(5) 較高獲利成長動能支撐較高評價，且評價亦仍處合理水準；<br>(6) 從過往歷史經驗，各種金融泡沫破裂並不會發生在FED降息循環中發生。就算AI具有泡沫成分，亦僅在形成泡沫階段，而非泡沫階段中後期，2026年發生AI泡沫破裂的可能性極低。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">企業獲利維持雙位數成長</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在AI樂觀發展、非AI產業低比較基期、通膨增速降低、FED降息循環，以及消費動能穩定之下，2026年美股及台股企業獲利成長預估分別可達14.8%、22.6% (IBES Thomson Reuters，2025/12/19。)，高企業獲利成長仍可維持股市上漲動能及合理評價，為股市多頭趨勢之基石。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">FED降息循環延續</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在美國就業市場及通膨增速同步降溫之下，加上2026年5月新的FED主席就任，FED降息循環可望延續。而在經濟溫和成長、FED降息循環環境下，仍是對股市較有利的環境，並有助股市評價維持或進一步提升。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">2026年股市可能風險因素觀察</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>產業發展失衡、就業市場穩定度、AI泡沫形成、對FED政策信任度、資金流動穩定性及地緣政治風險。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>AI與非AI產業不均衡發展，FED降息是否可止住就業市場惡化趨勢，可能影響未來經濟穩定度。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>FED降息可能進一步推升AI股票及股市評價，泡沫出現可能性仍存，目前尚屬泡沫形成階段，若FED開始升息循環再擔憂泡沫破裂風險。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>新任FED主席政策態度，是否產生FED政策信任風險，致使公債殖利率彈升，影響股市評價。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/4.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>美國降息、日本升息，是否導致日圓波動度上升，引發資金流動性風險。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/5.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>難測的地緣政治風險。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"股市風險情緒轉穩並延續上揚走勢，指數也重回歷史新高水準。尤其AI具實質需求及業績支撐，帶動股市信心回復。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202512/view-86.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2025/12/29 09:24:35","startTime":"2025-12-29T09:24:35.9400000+08:00","metaTitle":"FED降息循環將延續、經濟成長動能優於預期，股市震盪走升｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-12-29T09:29:55.7970000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/55633c30-f74c-408a-b84c-965fc0679ad2"},{"id":2869,"guid":"890e441f-7bea-4ea4-9a82-87a1403f6509","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"Fed降息有利債市表現，降息幅度的預期是關鍵","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國聯準會(Fed)於9月降息1碼至4.00% ~ 4.25%，主要是因為經濟數據顯示新增就業人數過低、聯邦基金利率（Fed Fund Rate）仍高於中性利率，而且到目前為止關稅對通膨影響比官員預期的還小，因此為預防失業率上揚，繼去（2024）年12月以來美國首次降息後，進一步的持續寛鬆政策。&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，從FOMC會議點陣圖的變動來看，FOMC委員對於2025年後續再降息1至2碼具有共識。但FOMC委員對於2026年的降息預期分岐大，因此市場對於通膨及財政赤字的預期改變，可能加大長天期公債殖利率的波動，建議逢殖利率高點適機進場布局。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">預防性降息的主因是失業率上揚風險提高</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據統計，美國新增非農就業人數於6月出現減少13,000人，是僅經濟衰退時才會見到的數據，6至8月平均3個月新增非農就業人數僅29,600人，亦低於維持失業率穩定的水準。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，雖然今年失業率僅由4.00%提高至4.30%，但Conference Board調查顯示認為工作難找的受訪者比例提高至20.00%，創近三年新高。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">Fed Fund Rate與每個月新增非農就業人數走勢</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202510/20251001-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，復華投信整理，2021/8/31~2025/8/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國經濟在消費與投資支持下尚無衰退跡象</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">本次FOMC會後釋出的經濟預期中，主要是調升經濟增長與通膨的預期，但調降利率的預期，至於通膨達到2.0%目標的時間，則拖長至2028年或以後；換言之，美國經濟在消費與投資支持下，目前尚無衰退跡象，而Fed主席在本次記者會則定義降息是基於「風險管理」。&nbsp;<br><br>事實上，2024年後支持美國經濟增長的另一個原因是AI相關的投資，因為AI可提升資本使用效率，故成為企業必要的投資，而AI投資增加，將會減少企業雇用的勞工人數，也使得新增就業人數減少，但對於經濟衰退的衝擊應較以往較為有限。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">Fed官員對於降息的預期分岐擴大</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">從點陣圖來看，官員對於降息的預期分岐擴大，2025年預期再降息兩次仍是多數，但對2026年級之後的利率分岐大，惟市場對利率預期的調整，便會造成公債殖利率的波動。&nbsp;<br><br>根據90年代的經驗，如果不是連續性降息，債券殖利率就很難一路向下，兩次降息之間的停頓期越長，債券殖利率上揚的可能性越高，如今2024年以來的經驗跟90年代類似，公債殖利率在兩次降息的停頓期中間上揚，但最終還是可望因降息而下跌。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"FOMC委員對於2026年的降息預期分岐大，因此市場對於通膨及財政赤字的預期改變，可能加大長天期公債殖利率的波動，建議逢殖利率高點適機進場。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202510/view-21.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"債券,全球","postTime":"2025/10/03 00:00:00","startTime":"2025-10-03T00:00:00.0000000+08:00","metaTitle":"Fed降息有利債市表現，降息幅度的預期是關鍵｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-10-01T14:52:42.0500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/890e441f-7bea-4ea4-9a82-87a1403f6509"}],"news01":[{"id":2955,"guid":"55633c30-f74c-408a-b84c-965fc0679ad2","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"FED降息循環將延續、經濟成長動能優於預期，股市震盪走升","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市持續震盪走高，雖然處於歐美聖誕假期階段，但在前週美國公布11月份通膨數據增速低於預期，確保美國聯準會(FED)維持降息循環，股市風險情緒轉穩並延續上揚走勢，指數也重回歷史新高水準。尤其AI具實質需求及業績支撐，AI泡沫疑慮降低，AI族群股價再轉強，帶動股市信心回復。&nbsp;<br><br>而延遲公布的2025年第三季美國經濟成長年增率達4.3%，在消費及投資成長支撐下優於預期，週初請失業救濟金人數21.4萬人，亦仍維持穩定且低於預期，提振投資人信心，並支撐企業獲利成長動能之維持。<br><br>總計一週(2025/12/22~12/26)美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲1.2%、1.4%、1.2%、2.0%，台股一週上漲3.1%以28,556點收盤。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下跌2個基本點(bps,1個基本點=0.01%)至4.14%，美元指數走低0.7%至98.02，油價(WTI)則一週小漲0.3%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">三大因素持續支撐2026年股市正向發展</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">支撐2026年股市正向展望的三大因素延續，在此三大因素未改變前，並不會改變股市長多趨勢。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">AI持續樂觀發展，且尚處發展早期階段</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">雖然部分投資人開始擔憂AI是否出現泡沫的疑慮，但從多方面觀察，目前AI仍僅處於發展初期，算力建置投資是否過剩，以及評價是否過高之疑慮，皆尚言之過早。主要因素包括：<br><br>(1) AI使用人數仍呈指數級上升階段；<br>(2) 企業AI使用滲透率亦仍處初期持續上升階段；<br>(3) AI算力需求急速上升，美國資料中心空置率僅有2%的低水準；<br>(4) 大型科技公司龐大AI投資，具有本業強大營運模式及營運現金流支撐，在高進入障礙、龐大客戶基礎支撐下，企業獲利仍將維持高成長動能；<br>(5) 較高獲利成長動能支撐較高評價，且評價亦仍處合理水準；<br>(6) 從過往歷史經驗，各種金融泡沫破裂並不會發生在FED降息循環中發生。就算AI具有泡沫成分，亦僅在形成泡沫階段，而非泡沫階段中後期，2026年發生AI泡沫破裂的可能性極低。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">企業獲利維持雙位數成長</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在AI樂觀發展、非AI產業低比較基期、通膨增速降低、FED降息循環，以及消費動能穩定之下，2026年美股及台股企業獲利成長預估分別可達14.8%、22.6% (IBES Thomson Reuters，2025/12/19。)，高企業獲利成長仍可維持股市上漲動能及合理評價，為股市多頭趨勢之基石。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">FED降息循環延續</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在美國就業市場及通膨增速同步降溫之下，加上2026年5月新的FED主席就任，FED降息循環可望延續。而在經濟溫和成長、FED降息循環環境下，仍是對股市較有利的環境，並有助股市評價維持或進一步提升。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">2026年股市可能風險因素觀察</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>產業發展失衡、就業市場穩定度、AI泡沫形成、對FED政策信任度、資金流動穩定性及地緣政治風險。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>AI與非AI產業不均衡發展，FED降息是否可止住就業市場惡化趨勢，可能影響未來經濟穩定度。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>FED降息可能進一步推升AI股票及股市評價，泡沫出現可能性仍存，目前尚屬泡沫形成階段，若FED開始升息循環再擔憂泡沫破裂風險。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>新任FED主席政策態度，是否產生FED政策信任風險，致使公債殖利率彈升，影響股市評價。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/4.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>美國降息、日本升息，是否導致日圓波動度上升，引發資金流動性風險。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/5.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>難測的地緣政治風險。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"股市風險情緒轉穩並延續上揚走勢，指數也重回歷史新高水準。尤其AI具實質需求及業績支撐，帶動股市信心回復。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202512/view-86.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2025/12/29 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Hwa Taiwan Intelligence Fund","ec002":"","twName":"台灣智能","pnav":"42.42","navDate":"2026/04/29","change":"-0.02","changeRange":"-0.05%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul><li>主要投資國內股票型(含ETF)及平衡型基金來參與台灣股市表現，並經由量化與質化分析，篩選表現相對強勢之子基金，追求較佳之上漲動能<br>研判市場趨勢與轉折，調整資產配置，以達到較佳的抗跌效果，創造長期相對穩健之績效</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2017/01/16","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"遠東國際商業銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"1.20%","ec013":"0.110%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"組合型","ec020_sort":5087,"ec022":"","ec024":"台灣","ec026":"組合型","ec027":"依公開說明書規定","ec028":"","ec029":"","ec030":"T+5日","ec033":"","ec034":"","ec036":"遠東國際商業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華台灣智能基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec040":"0","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":1,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":1,"isRename":"0","renameArticle":"","metaTitle":"復華台灣智能基金 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","prepayRate":"          ","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"強勢台股,打造第二筆退休金","isTrade":0,"fundSize_TWD":"13681517744.000000","roi3m":"11.45%","roi6m":"27.58%","roi1y":"61.92%","roi2y":"55.06%","roi3y":"104.37%","roiLaunch":"236.80%","roiY2D":"11.45%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"1","value02":"1","value03":"1","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"劉明滄","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":3072,"guid":"429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"台灣加權指數四萬點*，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股近日在台積電領軍下氣勢如虹，大盤指數攻上4萬點歷史高峰，究竟這是結構虛胖，或者是台灣資金活水充沛，台灣錢淹腳目帶來的股市榮景再現？從企業獲利的基本面觀察，AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環，現階段台股評價預估仍在合理水準。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI貢獻台灣出口增長，台灣經濟成長率上修</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股今(2026)年來漲幅已將近4成，主要是由基本面所推動。根據Bloomberg統計資料，2023年下半年起，資訊通訊產品出口年增率高達50%以上，由此可見AI對台灣出口增長的貢獻。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>此外，台灣經濟成長率也頻頻上修，包括央行、主計總處、中經院、台經院等研究機構資料顯示，2026年台灣GDP成長率預期達7%以上，傲視全球。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">各機構對2026年台灣GDP成長率預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：各機構，截至2026/4/27（圖中標示期間代表公布預測值之時間）。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，企業獲利的成長性與差異，也反映在股價表現上，除了高獲利支撐較高的評價，也是市場資金熱點，而大型科技龍頭獲利增長能見度仍佳，且經常優於預期，目前市場預期到明後年，台積電EPS年增率仍有機會達20%~25%。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，台股企業獲利連續正增長期間，有機會突破過去水準，若能拉長連續獲利的期間，越有機會使台股評價上修，而台灣加權指數從2萬5漲到4萬點，幾乎都由企業獲利推動，顯示AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台股評價預估仍在合理水準</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據Bloomberg資料顯示，2026年台灣各主要產業的獲利呈現高成長，2027年電子業預估獲利年成長達20%~40%，將可望支撐評價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/24。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，台灣股市的國際地位提升，想要參與AI與半導體投資，全球資金就該來台股市場尋寶。AI帶來的高成長仍在進行中，除了大量的基礎建設與算力需求，還有更先進的技術與產品規格。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>舉例來說， AI從訓練走向推論與應用，所需的資料中心成長更為快速，而台灣AI供應鏈的優勢，在於能快速與有效解決問題、滿足客戶需求，AI大趨勢將可望提供台灣超越亞洲國家的成長機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">全球市值前十大的股市與公司</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2026/4/24。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>＊2026/4/27台灣加權指數盤中高點為40,194點，為首次觸及四萬點。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/download/20260428.pdf\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\">了解更多並下載報告</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI為台灣相關企業獲利，帶來20%、40%、甚至60%以上的年成長率，台灣供應鏈的優勢，在於設計與應變的能力與速度及客戶的緊密合作。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/809318f2-bd33-4aed-a8e4-b9bf879b3b50view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣,全球","postTime":"2026/04/29 10:18:03","startTime":"2026-04-29T10:16:06.7200000+08:00","metaTitle":"台灣加權指數四萬點，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-29T10:48:29.9500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1"},{"id":3067,"guid":"6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 08:54:53","startTime":"2026-04-23T08:54:49.4100000+08:00","metaTitle":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-23T08:58:43.1630000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63"}],"news01":[{"id":3072,"guid":"429533dc-9499-40ac-8fef-ef2ad7912fa1","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"台灣加權指數四萬點*，源自前所未有與難以想像的AI機遇","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股近日在台積電領軍下氣勢如虹，大盤指數攻上4萬點歷史高峰，究竟這是結構虛胖，或者是台灣資金活水充沛，台灣錢淹腳目帶來的股市榮景再現？從企業獲利的基本面觀察，AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環，現階段台股評價預估仍在合理水準。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI貢獻台灣出口增長，台灣經濟成長率上修</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台股今(2026)年來漲幅已將近4成，主要是由基本面所推動。根據Bloomberg統計資料，2023年下半年起，資訊通訊產品出口年增率高達50%以上，由此可見AI對台灣出口增長的貢獻。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>此外，台灣經濟成長率也頻頻上修，包括央行、主計總處、中經院、台經院等研究機構資料顯示，2026年台灣GDP成長率預期達7%以上，傲視全球。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">各機構對2026年台灣GDP成長率預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：各機構，截至2026/4/27（圖中標示期間代表公布預測值之時間）。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，企業獲利的成長性與差異，也反映在股價表現上，除了高獲利支撐較高的評價，也是市場資金熱點，而大型科技龍頭獲利增長能見度仍佳，且經常優於預期，目前市場預期到明後年，台積電EPS年增率仍有機會達20%~25%。<strong>（個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。）</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，台股企業獲利連續正增長期間，有機會突破過去水準，若能拉長連續獲利的期間，越有機會使台股評價上修，而台灣加權指數從2萬5漲到4萬點，幾乎都由企業獲利推動，顯示AI帶來前所未有的企業獲利成長循環。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台股評價預估仍在合理水準</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據Bloomberg資料顯示，2026年台灣各主要產業的獲利呈現高成長，2027年電子業預估獲利年成長達20%~40%，將可望支撐評價。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/24。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，台灣股市的國際地位提升，想要參與AI與半導體投資，全球資金就該來台股市場尋寶。AI帶來的高成長仍在進行中，除了大量的基礎建設與算力需求，還有更先進的技術與產品規格。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>舉例來說， AI從訓練走向推論與應用，所需的資料中心成長更為快速，而台灣AI供應鏈的優勢，在於能快速與有效解決問題、滿足客戶需求，AI大趨勢將可望提供台灣超越亞洲國家的成長機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">全球市值前十大的股市與公司</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260428-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2026/4/24。&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><br>＊2026/4/27台灣加權指數盤中高點為40,194點，為首次觸及四萬點。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/download/20260428.pdf\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\">了解更多並下載報告</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI為台灣相關企業獲利，帶來20%、40%、甚至60%以上的年成長率，台灣供應鏈的優勢，在於設計與應變的能力與速度及客戶的緊密合作。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/809318f2-bd33-4aed-a8e4-b9bf879b3b50view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,台灣,全球","postTime":"2026/04/29 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unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 08:54:53","startTime":"2026-04-23T08:54:49.4100000+08:00","metaTitle":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-23T08:58:43.1630000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63"},{"id":3065,"guid":"a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美伊戰爭對股市影響降低</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週美國雖然宣布封鎖荷姆茲海峽，但並未改變股市上漲趨勢。由於美伊可望再重啟談判，且川普釋出已近達成協議，因此股市並未再受美伊戰爭發展，以及油價大幅波動所影響；而美國聯準會(FED)經濟褐皮書，以及週初請失業救濟金人數，皆顯示美國經濟穩定。&nbsp;<br><br>AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然週四台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong><br><br><strong>總計一週（2026/4/13-4/17）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲3.2%、4.5%、6.8%、7.5%；台股週漲3.9%以36804點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑5個bps至4.26%，美元指數跌0.5%至98.2，<strong><u>油價(WTI)週跌13.2%至每桶83.85美元</u></strong>，黃金價格反彈1.9%至每盎司4879.6美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI發展及美國經濟穩定支撐股市正向趨勢</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">因預期美伊可望達成協議，雖然油價仍維持高檔震盪，戰爭結束後包括受損煉油及天然氣設施亦仍需時間恢復，但股市反應未來，且美國能源自主性高，雖然短期物價增速亦將因此上揚，但中長期對油價的預期將可望維持穩定，中長期通膨預期亦未明顯上升。上週公佈的美國3月生產者物價指數(PPI)月增0.5%、核心PPI月增0.1%，皆低於預期。<br><br>FED公布經濟褐皮書，雖因油價上漲將產生潛在物價壓力，但美國整體經濟及就業仍維持穩定，週初請失業救濟金人數降至20.7萬人低檔，再加上AI的樂觀發展，美伊戰爭對美國經濟並未產生太大影響，利率期貨亦顯市FED於年底前可望維持利率不變。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台積電樂觀展望延續，台股長期多頭趨勢不變</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台積電法說會展望持續樂觀，受AI與高效能運算需求強勁帶動，3奈米製程加速擴產並成為成長主力。第一季營收與獲利表現亮眼，稅後淨利顯著成長，毛利率達66.2%並創新高，顯示先進製程帶動獲利能力提升。公司將資本支出展望提高至約520～560億美元偏向上緣上準，用於擴充先進製程與封裝產能。展望第二季，營收預估持續成長、年增率將達四成以上，毛利率維持高檔水準。<br><br>總括而言，台積電延續對於2026年業績展望三成以上成長的預測，且表示AI需求仍非常強勁，佔台股四成以上權重的台積電，以及台灣AI關鍵供應鏈角色的獨特地位，在AI由訓練開始進入推論驅動的階段，算力需求及相關基礎設施建立仍將快速成長，未來2~3年台股企業展望仍正向發展。選擇產品規格、數量、及價格同時提升的公司，繼續長期持有，仍是合適的投資方式。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-90.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/20 09:21:33","startTime":"2026-04-20T09:21:33.3330000+08:00","metaTitle":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-20T09:26:56.7500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea"}],"news01":[{"id":3067,"guid":"6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 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text-9-light\">整體而言，7月以來股市下跌主因科技股評價修正，但評價修正近一成後止跌反彈，產業配置上可聚焦財報優於預期且下半年上修的大型科技股，並搭配獲利上修或相對穩定的通信及公用事業平衡配置。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國就業數據並不符合衰退環境</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">最新美國失業率上升引起衰退恐慌，然而7月份失業人數增加35.2萬，主因颶風之惡劣天氣導致無法工作者達43.6萬(均值4.1萬)、臨時裁員達106萬；若從勞動參與率、每週工時及企業裁員率來看，現階段勞動參與率(供給)增加，工時及裁員率(需求)持平，均不符合衰退環境。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202408/20240829-2.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2024/8，復華投信整理。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">但值得留意的是，除就業數據外，多項經濟數據已處於衰退門檻值以下，參考NBER追蹤指標，個人收入支出及工業生產增速已低於3%，一旦新增非農就業人數低於10萬，便將應證衰退風險。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">而美國聯準會(Fed)為達成經濟軟著陸目標，鬆綁貨幣政策限制性將有其必要，根據歷史統計，Fed降息前後三個月期間股市普遍上漲，防禦股優於循環股。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">NBER界定衰退與否的主要經濟指標</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202408/20240829-1.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2024/8，復華投信整理。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">半導體、伺服器及電力公用事業等獲利能見度高</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">近2年來人工智慧(AI)科技趨勢成為投資主流，雖然雲端服務供應商(CSP)持續軍備競賽，資本支出仍不斷增加，但AI話題性降溫且缺乏殺手級應用，尤其AI變現需要時間發酵，根據McKinsey最新資料顯示，七成受訪者預估AI投資回收需要3至5年，現階段以半導體、伺服器及電力公用事業等獲利能見度相對較高。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國總統候選人民調拉鋸</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">關於美國總統選戰的變數，目前搖擺州傾向民主黨的哈里斯，參眾兩院則較偏共和黨，市場則是關注9月10日次輪的辦論會，據了解，共和黨的川普著重降低所得稅、加徵關稅及收緊移民，哈里斯則瞄準中低收入族群、住房、對華溫和，但兩人的政策均將推升赤字。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>(以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表本基金之績效，本基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。投資建議僅供參考，投資人仍須依自身投資需求與風險承受度評估。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><strong><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> </strong><span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\"><strong>我要母子基金循環投資</strong></span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</strong></a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><strong><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> </strong><span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\"><strong>我還不是復華客戶</strong></span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</strong></a></div></div></div><p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p>","summary":"7月以來股市下跌主因科技股評價修正，但評價修正近一成後止跌反彈，大型科技股財報優於預期且下半年上修，可搭配獲利上修或相對穩定的通信及公用事業平衡配置。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202408/view-68.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2024/08/28 11:21:52","startTime":"2024-08-28T11:21:52.5130000+08:00","metaTitle":"金融市場多空震盪？觀察3大關鍵因子｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2024-08-29T09:11:22.4600000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/07e0485e-21ab-42c2-81b7-b7395e056ea0"}],"news01":[{"id":2380,"guid":"07e0485e-21ab-42c2-81b7-b7395e056ea0","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"金融市場多空震盪，觀察3大關鍵因子","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">近來金融市場表現震盪，研判投資人心態上的3大轉變為關鍵因子，分別為①預期經濟軟著陸/不著陸轉為擔憂衰退；②AI產業趨勢由高大上轉為檢視變現能力；③美國總統候選人民調拉鋸，市場關注9/10次輪辯論。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">整體而言，7月以來股市下跌主因科技股評價修正，但評價修正近一成後止跌反彈，產業配置上可聚焦財報優於預期且下半年上修的大型科技股，並搭配獲利上修或相對穩定的通信及公用事業平衡配置。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國就業數據並不符合衰退環境</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">最新美國失業率上升引起衰退恐慌，然而7月份失業人數增加35.2萬，主因颶風之惡劣天氣導致無法工作者達43.6萬(均值4.1萬)、臨時裁員達106萬；若從勞動參與率、每週工時及企業裁員率來看，現階段勞動參與率(供給)增加，工時及裁員率(需求)持平，均不符合衰退環境。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202408/20240829-2.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2024/8，復華投信整理。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">但值得留意的是，除就業數據外，多項經濟數據已處於衰退門檻值以下，參考NBER追蹤指標，個人收入支出及工業生產增速已低於3%，一旦新增非農就業人數低於10萬，便將應證衰退風險。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">而美國聯準會(Fed)為達成經濟軟著陸目標，鬆綁貨幣政策限制性將有其必要，根據歷史統計，Fed降息前後三個月期間股市普遍上漲，防禦股優於循環股。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">NBER界定衰退與否的主要經濟指標</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202408/20240829-1.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2024/8，復華投信整理。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">半導體、伺服器及電力公用事業等獲利能見度高</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">近2年來人工智慧(AI)科技趨勢成為投資主流，雖然雲端服務供應商(CSP)持續軍備競賽，資本支出仍不斷增加，但AI話題性降溫且缺乏殺手級應用，尤其AI變現需要時間發酵，根據McKinsey最新資料顯示，七成受訪者預估AI投資回收需要3至5年，現階段以半導體、伺服器及電力公用事業等獲利能見度相對較高。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國總統候選人民調拉鋸</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">關於美國總統選戰的變數，目前搖擺州傾向民主黨的哈里斯，參眾兩院則較偏共和黨，市場則是關注9月10日次輪的辦論會，據了解，共和黨的川普著重降低所得稅、加徵關稅及收緊移民，哈里斯則瞄準中低收入族群、住房、對華溫和，但兩人的政策均將推升赤字。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>(以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表本基金之績效，本基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。投資建議僅供參考，投資人仍須依自身投資需求與風險承受度評估。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><strong><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> </strong><span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\"><strong>我要母子基金循環投資</strong></span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</strong></a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><strong><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> </strong><span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\"><strong>我還不是復華客戶</strong></span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</strong></a></div></div></div><p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p>","summary":"7月以來股市下跌主因科技股評價修正，但評價修正近一成後止跌反彈，大型科技股財報優於預期且下半年上修，可搭配獲利上修或相對穩定的通信及公用事業平衡配置。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202408/view-68.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2024/08/28 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Olympic Global Fund","ec002":"(本基金有相當比重投資於持有非投資等級高風險債券之基金)","twName":"奧林匹克全球組合","pnav":"18.94","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"-0.01","changeRange":"-0.05%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">訴求資產配置之效益，判斷市場多空轉折，控制下檔風險，提升投資勝率。</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">以債券基金搭配其他資產，控制波動亦提升息收及資本利得機會，累積長期投資成果。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2005/04/21","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"合作金庫商業銀行","ec009":"RR3","ec012":"1.00%","ec013":"0.130%","ec014":"2.00%(含)以下","ec020":"組合型","ec020_sort":5087,"ec022":"","ec024":"全球","ec026":"組合型","ec028":"","ec030":"T+6日","ec036":"合作金庫商業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華奧林匹克全球組合基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":1,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":1,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華奧林匹克全球組合基金 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":0,"fundSize_TWD":"3925899991.000000","roi3m":"0.27%","roi6m":"4.29%","roi1y":"-0.11%","roi2y":"6.28%","roi3y":"20.03%","roiLaunch":"84.60%","roiY2D":"0.27%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"1","value02":"1","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"王品昕","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":3067,"guid":"6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 08:54:53","startTime":"2026-04-23T08:54:49.4100000+08:00","metaTitle":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-23T08:58:43.1630000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63"},{"id":2714,"guid":"78e560a6-93dc-414e-9688-7d3b3ed1622e","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"高關稅擔憂降低、AI持續發展，股市信心持續恢復","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普關稅政策影響降溫，AI投資熱潮延續，股市持續反彈</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">美中關稅戰降溫、AI趨勢延續，股市續揚</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市普遍上揚，週一公布中美達成短期協議，暫大幅降低雙方關稅稅率，市場風險情緒明顯好轉；此外、沙烏地阿拉伯與卡達分別宣布包括AI晶片及飛機等在內的大額投資及訂單金額，以及美國解除拜登時期的AI晶片限制出口法案，亦使科技股、半導體類股股價上漲，台股亦受惠，台積電及電子類股上漲、海運股反應中美貿易解凍亦表現強勢，在類股輪動、外資仍持續買超下，台股一週亦上漲4.4%重回季線之上。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">關稅對經濟影響可望降低，股市反應基本面表現</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">雖然美國聯準會(Fed)主席Powell擔心因關稅將使長期通膨上升、穩定度下降，不過4月份的美國零售銷售及物價數據仍呈降溫狀況。4月消費者物價(CPI)及核心消費物價分別年增2.3%(3月2.4%)、2.8%(持平)，生產者物價月減0.5%、年增2.4%(3月2.5%)；4月零售銷售僅月增0.1%、核心零售銷售則月減0.2%亦低於預期。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">不過美國4月零售銷售年增率仍達5.2%，週初請失業救濟會人數22.9萬人仍穩定，美國經濟雖受關稅政策影響動能，但仍具基本韌性，致使在上週中美貿易關稅戰降溫後，美股S&amp;P500指數反彈後離歷史高點僅差3%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">總計一週(2025/5/12-5/16)美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲3.4%、5.3%、7.2%、10.2%，台股一週上漲4.4%以21843點收盤；美國10年期公債殖利率一週上揚6個bps至4.43%，油價(WTI)一週上漲2.4%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美債遭降評的可能影響：對美國股、債市皆為暫時性影響，經濟表現、通膨發展、企業獲利表現、Fed政策仍為關鍵</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">5/16(五)美股收盤後信評機構Moody’s亦調降了美國債信評等，由最高等級的Aaa降一級至Aa1，此為三大信評機構最後一家將美國信評摘除最高等級的機構。標普S&amp;P早在2011年、惠譽(Fitch)則在2023年，在美國因發生國會債務上限問題爭議後，分別已調降了美債最高等級信評。此對美國股債市皆為一次性的暫時性影響，原因如下：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">美債遭穆迪調降信評為暫時性影響</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>(1)美國經濟表現仍穩定、國家競爭力仍強</strong><br>雖有川普關稅戰的影響，但美國的科技創新及經濟韌性，與美國民間債務狀況健康，仍支撐美國長期競爭力及經濟長期表現，此乃是持有美債的投資人基本信心所在。<br><br><strong>(2)美債胃納量難以被取代</strong><br>目前僅有11個國家擁有最高等級信評(見下表一)，而其中僅德國具有較大公債量體可供國際投資人購買，不過目前10年期德債殖利率亦僅2.5%左右，而美債殖利率仍達4.4%，美債投資價值及資產配置角色仍難以被取代。<br><br><strong>(3)政府債務水準及信評，對公債殖利率高低並無一定關係</strong><br>目前美國債務佔GDP比重為123%(2024年底)，而仍有最高等級的信評國家如新加坡、加拿大分別亦高達162%及105%(見下表二)；且政府債務水準與公債殖利率高低亦沒有必然的正向關係，如日本政府債務佔GDP比重高達255%全球最高，但10年期公債殖利率水準卻只有0.85%左右。<br><br><strong>美國擁有印美元印鈔權、外債等同國內債務的特性，除非對美國經濟及美元喪失信心，美國實質倒債風險幾乎不會發生。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">股債市表現最終仍由經濟表現、通膨、Fed政策決定</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">因此，短期美債再遭穆迪降評失去最高評級，可能對股債市造成短期修正，但對債市而言，債務的支付能力、美國經濟的穩定性、通膨的發展、Fed政策變化才是最終決定公債殖利率水準的關鍵；對股市而言，持續的經濟及企業獲利成長、Fed及政府的重大政策，仍是決定股市方向的主因。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">表一：擁有最高信評債券等級國家</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">國家</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">S&amp;P</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">Moody's</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">Fitch</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">德國</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">瑞士</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">新加坡</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">挪威</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">澳洲</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">瑞典</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">丹麥</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">盧森堡</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">荷蘭</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">加拿大</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AAA</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AA+</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">芬蘭</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AA+</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">Aaa</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">AA+</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，ChatGPT，復華投信整理。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">表二:政府債務佔GDP及10年期公債殖利率</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">國家／地區</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">政府債務佔GDP(%)</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">10年期公債殖利率(%)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">日本</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">254.6</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">0.85</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">新加坡</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">162.1</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.1</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">希臘</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">158.2</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.36</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">義大利</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">136.3</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.8</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">美國</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">123.3</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">4.39</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">英國</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">104.3</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">4.57</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">法國</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">113.8</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.26</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">加拿大</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">104.7</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.02</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">西班牙</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">104.3</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.52</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">比利時</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">105.6</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.13</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">葡萄牙</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">100.6</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.4</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">中國</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">89</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2.7</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">印度</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">82.8</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">7.1</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">巴西</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">70</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">14.6</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">德國</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">63.7</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2.5</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">南韓</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">55.2</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.0</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">澳洲</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">49.4</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.5</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">台灣</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">25</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">1.2</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">俄羅斯</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">19.9</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">9.0</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，ChatGPT，政府債務佔GDP為2024年底資料，10年期公債殖利率為至2025年5月中旬數據，復華投信整理。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"美國經濟雖受關稅政策影響動能，但仍具基本韌性，致使在上週中美貿易關稅戰降溫後，美股S&P500指數反彈後離歷史高點僅差3%。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202505/view-98.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2025/05/19 14:12:11","startTime":"2025-05-19T14:11:57.3900000+08:00","metaTitle":"高關稅擔憂降低、AI持續發展，股市信心持續恢復｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-05-19T14:12:13.3200000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/78e560a6-93dc-414e-9688-7d3b3ed1622e"}],"news01":[{"id":3067,"guid":"6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 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text-9-light\">上週股市仍在美、伊戰爭的訊息之下震盪波動，美股延續震盪走低趨勢，台股雖維持相對強勢，但仍在戰爭因素之不確定性、外資賣壓，以及記憶體族群股價大幅回落下，影響投資信心，使台股維持於32,500至33,900點區間震盪。<br><br>不過受惠於AI將進入推論驅動階段，算力需求持續大幅成長及AI Server規格提升，台股相關零組件公司之股價仍有表現。<br><br>總計<strong>一週（2026/3/23-3/27）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別下跌0.4%、1.7%、3.0%、2.8%，台股下跌1.3%以33,112點收盤。</strong>美國10年期公債殖利率一週再彈升5個bps至4.44%，美元指數升0.5%至100.15，油價(WTI)上漲5.2%至每桶99.64美元，黃金價格下跌1.1%至每盎司4,524.30美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">年底FED升息預期機率一度升至四成，壓抑股、債市表現</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美股下跌因素主要來自於美、伊戰爭所引發的風險情緒趨避、油價上漲、通膨預期可能上升，以及所延伸的美國聯準會(FED)不再降息或轉為升息政策，並使近期美國公債殖利率持續攀升，進而影響了美國股市評價。<br><br>而戰爭是否真能如川普所述於短期內結束，以及若伊朗持續封鎖荷姆茲海峽時間過長，將不利長期油價及原物料價格與通膨走向。<br><br>因油價上升將帶動通膨增速上升，上週年底前FED升息預期機率一度升至四成以上。目前利率期貨顯示，FED於年底前維持目前政策利率水準(3.5%至3.75%)不變的機率為72%，預期降息的機率僅剩3%，升息預期機率反而至近25%(CME,2026/3/27)，使得近期美股評價及債市表現持續受到壓抑。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">FED於年底前升降息之機率預期(利率期貨2026/12/9):年底前升息預期出現，壓抑股市評價</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">FED升息政策</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">可能機率</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">降息一碼</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.0%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">維持利率不變<br>(3.50~3.75%)</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">72.4%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">升息一碼</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">22.2%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">升息兩碼</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2.3%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">升息三碼</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">0.1%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：CME，2026/3/27。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI進入推論驅動階段，相關商機仍提供選股機會</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">NVDIA的GTC大會，發表了一系列未來針對AI Agent及進入推論階段，所需之晶片及平台，與相關零組件規格提升，預期算力需求將仍呈倍速成長，亦將持續帶動科技業及整體企業獲利成長之動能。因此，AI樂觀發展仍是在美伊戰爭不確定因素下，支撐股市之最重要因素。<br><br>而在AI 1.0訓練階段，主要以個人使用、加速大語言模型之發展為主，進入AI 2.0推論階段之後，透過AI Agent的建立，個人與企業皆為使用AI的主要對象，AI的應用將包括「思考規劃+執行工具+重讀歷史紀錄」所有之運用及相關使用成本，不僅算力需求仍將指數型上升，並將帶動更多商機出現，以及AI相關基礎設施、晶片、硬體、與零組件規格及使用量同時提升之需求。<br><br>在此趨勢下，雖然股市仍因美伊戰爭延續而震盪修正，不過AI商機仍可期待之下，選股仍是在股市中獲利的重要因素。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"雖然股市仍因美伊戰爭延續而震盪修正，但預期AI算力需求將仍呈倍速成長，亦將持續帶動科技業及整體企業獲利成長之動能，選股仍是在股市中獲利的重要因素。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202603/view-21.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"全球,股票,債券","postTime":"2026/03/30 09:54:02","startTime":"2026-03-30T09:54:02.9670000+08:00","metaTitle":"FED升息預期出現壓抑股市，但AI發展仍提供選股機會｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-30T10:00:19.1000000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/35e50323-8048-4a11-b6f8-dcb4e9638749"},{"id":2952,"guid":"2b9f7b9d-9c0a-463a-884a-b7c016fee158","articleCategory":"投資教育","title":"【2026展望】降息及AI趨勢帶動，企業獲利成長支撐股市向上 (語音🔊)","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">直接用聽的，大約需要3~5分鐘</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/EDM/image/2025/20251226.mp3\" target=\"_blank\">2026年展望：成長趨勢，馬不停蹄</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">回顧2025年，美國總統川普的關稅政策一度引發市場大波動，而展望2026年，美國將迎來期中選舉，面對民意壓力，川普推出激進政策的風險可望下降，在美國聯準會(Fed)降息機會仍在、企業獲利保持較佳成長動能的情況下，有望驅動股市繼續向上，尤其是AI成長趨勢不停歇，從股價漲勢、評價、企業資本支出占比等多項指標來看，目前說是泡沫仍言之過早。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">2026年美國繼續存在降息機會，雖然可能走走停停，但仍處在降息趨勢</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於美國在2026年將舉行期中選舉，川普在民調下滑的壓力下，可能較不會實施過於激進的政策，而如今通膨壓力減輕，但勞動市場放緩，帶來降息機會，而且下一任聯準會主席的熱門人選，可能較現在更為鴿派，隨著債券殖利率可能緩步回落，股市評價也獲得支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國十年期公債殖利率及聯準會政策利率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202512/20251223-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg、FOMC會議，截至2025/12/11。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">2026預估企業獲利多能接近雙位數成長，基本面有利股市多頭趨勢</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據IBES Thomson Reuters、Bloomberg等資料顯示，預期2026年全球景氣溫和成長，企業獲利增速仍佳，回顧歷史經驗顯示，在降息環境及企業獲利成長的情況下，股市上漲機率高，現階段儘管評價略高，但基本面驅動股市向上動能。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">各股市預估企業獲利成長率及本益比</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202512/20251223-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：IBES Thomson Reuters、Bloomberg，截至2025/12/12。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">1990年以來，聯準會貨幣政策寬鬆+企業獲利成長的環境下，美國股市表現</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202512/20251223-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>預估企業獲利(EPS)採用未來一年預估值。資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2025/11/28。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI成長不停歇，科技股企業獲利持續上修，無須過早擔憂泡沫</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">近來AI類股股價上漲，多由實質獲利支撐，並非評價虛胖，而目前AI漲勢、評價、IPO數量、資訊設備投資占比等指標，仍遠低於2000年網路泡沫時期，整體而言，科技業雖然擴大資本支出，但目前營運資金充足，隨著AI持續進化、企業獲利上修，短期雜音無礙多頭趨勢。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">今年以來，美國科技類股2025及2026年預估EPS的變動幅度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202512/20251223-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，截至2025/12/18。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p><a class=\"cta-11-container flex justify-center\" href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/download/20251223.pdf\"><i class=\"cta cta-11 flex align-items-center pr-6\"><span class=\"cta-11-img mr-5 flex justify-center align-items-center\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/32x32/line/red/page-download.svg\" alt=\"\"> </span><span class=\"text-8-medium lh-14 color-white mt-0\">下載完整報告</span>&nbsp;</i></a></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。本資料僅供參考，不代表投資績效之保證。投資人申購基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不代表基金之績效，基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"關稅對物價影響溫和，美國聯準會降息以因應勞動市場降溫風險，AI持續帶動企業獲利成長及股市向上趨勢，AI泡沫仍言之過早。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202512/view-93.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2025/12/26 09:29:00","startTime":"2025-12-26T09:28:54.7670000+08:00","metaTitle":"【2026展望】降息及AI趨勢帶動，企業獲利成長支撐股市向上｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:19:29.1200000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"29db174e-4346-4db3-99e3-4aa64f87a935","category":{"id":20970,"guid":"29db174e-4346-4db3-99e3-4aa64f87a935","name":"投資教育","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/industry-news","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/industry-news/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"產業新知","metaTitle":"產業新知｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/3ecefef4-a726-444c-9486-0e9b4bdba1deB.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12358,"guid":"b508ff8e-f2b1-42a7-94ef-767789751742","name":"投資教育","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/industry-news/2b9f7b9d-9c0a-463a-884a-b7c016fee158"}],"news01":[{"id":3047,"guid":"35e50323-8048-4a11-b6f8-dcb4e9638749","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"FED升息預期出現壓抑股市，但AI發展仍提供選股機會","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美伊戰爭持續干擾股市表現</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市仍在美、伊戰爭的訊息之下震盪波動，美股延續震盪走低趨勢，台股雖維持相對強勢，但仍在戰爭因素之不確定性、外資賣壓，以及記憶體族群股價大幅回落下，影響投資信心，使台股維持於32,500至33,900點區間震盪。<br><br>不過受惠於AI將進入推論驅動階段，算力需求持續大幅成長及AI Server規格提升，台股相關零組件公司之股價仍有表現。<br><br>總計<strong>一週（2026/3/23-3/27）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別下跌0.4%、1.7%、3.0%、2.8%，台股下跌1.3%以33,112點收盤。</strong>美國10年期公債殖利率一週再彈升5個bps至4.44%，美元指數升0.5%至100.15，油價(WTI)上漲5.2%至每桶99.64美元，黃金價格下跌1.1%至每盎司4,524.30美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">年底FED升息預期機率一度升至四成，壓抑股、債市表現</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美股下跌因素主要來自於美、伊戰爭所引發的風險情緒趨避、油價上漲、通膨預期可能上升，以及所延伸的美國聯準會(FED)不再降息或轉為升息政策，並使近期美國公債殖利率持續攀升，進而影響了美國股市評價。<br><br>而戰爭是否真能如川普所述於短期內結束，以及若伊朗持續封鎖荷姆茲海峽時間過長，將不利長期油價及原物料價格與通膨走向。<br><br>因油價上升將帶動通膨增速上升，上週年底前FED升息預期機率一度升至四成以上。目前利率期貨顯示，FED於年底前維持目前政策利率水準(3.5%至3.75%)不變的機率為72%，預期降息的機率僅剩3%，升息預期機率反而至近25%(CME,2026/3/27)，使得近期美股評價及債市表現持續受到壓抑。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">FED於年底前升降息之機率預期(利率期貨2026/12/9):年底前升息預期出現，壓抑股市評價</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">FED升息政策</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">可能機率</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">降息一碼</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">3.0%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">維持利率不變<br>(3.50~3.75%)</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">72.4%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">升息一碼</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">22.2%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">升息兩碼</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">2.3%</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">升息三碼</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">0.1%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：CME，2026/3/27。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI進入推論驅動階段，相關商機仍提供選股機會</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">NVDIA的GTC大會，發表了一系列未來針對AI Agent及進入推論階段，所需之晶片及平台，與相關零組件規格提升，預期算力需求將仍呈倍速成長，亦將持續帶動科技業及整體企業獲利成長之動能。因此，AI樂觀發展仍是在美伊戰爭不確定因素下，支撐股市之最重要因素。<br><br>而在AI 1.0訓練階段，主要以個人使用、加速大語言模型之發展為主，進入AI 2.0推論階段之後，透過AI Agent的建立，個人與企業皆為使用AI的主要對象，AI的應用將包括「思考規劃+執行工具+重讀歷史紀錄」所有之運用及相關使用成本，不僅算力需求仍將指數型上升，並將帶動更多商機出現，以及AI相關基礎設施、晶片、硬體、與零組件規格及使用量同時提升之需求。<br><br>在此趨勢下，雖然股市仍因美伊戰爭延續而震盪修正，不過AI商機仍可期待之下，選股仍是在股市中獲利的重要因素。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"雖然股市仍因美伊戰爭延續而震盪修正，但預期AI算力需求將仍呈倍速成長，亦將持續帶動科技業及整體企業獲利成長之動能，選股仍是在股市中獲利的重要因素。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202603/view-21.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"全球,股票,債券","postTime":"2026/03/30 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復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","f_DisEqual":"N","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":0,"fundSize_TWD":"130123031.000000","roi3m":"1.85%","roi6m":"8.02%","roi1y":"12.08%","roi2y":"18.13%","roi3y":"39.79%","roiLaunch":"57.85%","roiY2D":"1.85%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"2026/04/08","disType":"月配","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"朱展志","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[],"news01":[],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/80.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/80.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=80","url2":"","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"2017/11/01","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1037,"updateTime":"2023-02-01T17:17:24.1030000+08:00","guid":"bc1ecd4f-786e-4a83-a3d0-59dea834da69","fundID":"28","twNameFull":"復華新興債股動力組合基金-新臺幣","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa Emerging Market Active Allocation Fund of Funds-TWD","ec002":"","twName":"新興債股動力組合新臺幣","pnav":"15.53","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"-0.07","changeRange":"-0.45%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">採由上而下投資策略，觀察新興國家債市及股市相關指標，判斷市場概況及未來走勢，動態調整投資比重。</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">深入分析新興國家債市收益率與未來走勢，定期重新檢視與調整，搭配股市收益機會，建立資產組合。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2010/09/01","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"第一商業銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"1.50%","ec013":"0.140%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"組合型","ec020_sort":5087,"ec022":"","ec024":"國內外地區","ec026":"組合型","ec028":"","ec030":"T+6日","ec036":"第一商業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華新興債股動力組合基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華新興債股動力組合基金-新臺幣 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":0,"fundSize_TWD":"1359555259.000000","roi3m":"6.53%","roi6m":"14.67%","roi1y":"25.69%","roi2y":"35.35%","roi3y":"50.63%","roiLaunch":"32.10%","roiY2D":"6.53%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"劉明滄","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":2290,"guid":"540dd33d-f6d6-48cb-9dab-f5c3033474a2","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"新興國家經濟穩定且債信好轉，Fed降息有望推升美元債價格","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">今(2024)年新興國家央行跟隨著美國聯準會(Fed)減緩降息步伐，短期壓抑新興股債市場氛圍，然而在新興國家經濟穩定與債信好轉趨勢下，未來隨Fed降息，有望帶動新興國家恢復降息步伐，有利新興股市與美元債市。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">新興國家央行跟隨Fed，減緩降息步伐，使新興股市今年轉弱</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">為避免匯率貶值帶動輸入性通膨，新興國家央行今年放緩降息步調，本地債利率上揚，不利股市評價，故今年以來截至5月底的新興股市(不含中國)報酬率僅約3%，遠低於2023年全年20.0%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">新興國家本地利率上揚，壓抑新興股市評價</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202406/20240606-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2022/9/30~2024/5/30。<strong>（以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。）</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">而由於新興國家央行政策轉鷹，使新興股市今年轉弱，例如墨西哥、巴西與印尼股市因央行減緩降息幅度，今年表現弱於去年與大盤。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">股市受貨幣政策影響之主要新興國家</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202406/20240606-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2024/5/30。<strong>（以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。）</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">新興國家通膨增速已降至疫情前水準約3.8%，經濟穩定且債信好轉</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">新興國家較歐美早進入升息循環，故通膨提早回落。受惠內需復甦與偏高原物料價格，IMF估計今明兩年經濟增速維持在4.2%，且疫後恢復財政紀律，國家評等升評多於降評。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">IMF對全球經濟增速預估</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202406/20240606-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：IMF，Bloomberg，2024/4。<strong>（以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。）</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">Fed降息將使新興國家恢復降息步伐，推升新興股市與美元債市</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">參考2019年Fed降息經驗，且目前新興國家實質利率3.0%遠大於美國之1.8%，降息空間更大，故預期新興國家央行連同Fed降息，有望推升新興股價與美元債價格。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">此外，新興國家通膨已降至疫情前水準，且降息空間大於美國，在新興國家債信好轉的情況下，Fed降息帶動新興國家央行降息，亦有利新興股市。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"新興國家受惠內需復甦與偏高原物料價格，IMF估計今明兩年經濟增速維持在4.2%，且疫後恢復財政紀律，國家評等升評多於降評。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202406/view-42.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"全球,債券","postTime":"2024/06/06 10:38:05","startTime":"2024-06-06T10:38:05.8230000+08:00","metaTitle":"新興國家經濟穩定且債信好轉，Fed降息有望推升美元債價格｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2024-06-06T10:52:34.5370000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/540dd33d-f6d6-48cb-9dab-f5c3033474a2"},{"id":2158,"guid":"3c41cae9-7677-4c75-a631-5eab0ee4fdb3","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"上半年Fed可望降息，總經及基本面支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國聯邦公開市場委員會(Federal Open Market Committee，FOMC)近期最重要的意涵是「經濟&amp;貨幣政策正常化」，以就業數據及核心通膨模型估算今(2024)年第二、三季間美國聯準會(Fed)將滿足降息條件。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">企業借貸成本及政府利息支出將迫使聯準會降息</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">此外，美國企業借貸成本及政府利息支出負擔倍增至10%，增加Fed降息誘因，而且疫後Fed高利率壓抑房市及製造業景氣，不但使得勞動市場降溫，衰退風險也可能影響企業獲利動能。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202402/20240212-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，CBO，資料截至2023/12。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，金融市場已領先反應降息的利多，利率期貨隱含上半年降息幅度，則可能受勞動數據呈現降溫的情況下，研判未來一年降息速度與經濟衰退情境相當。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">就業市場降溫且未見衰退警訊，但距通膨達標仍差一哩路</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202402/20240212-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2024/1。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">至於下半年加速寬鬆與否，首先觀察就業市場降溫進展！據統計，美國每月新增非農就業人數遠高於10萬衰退警戒門檻(軟著陸情境)，但薪資增速需降至3~4%間(通膨續降)。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">其次觀察市場流動性收緊程度，現階段銀行準備金仍相當充分(準備金占名目GDP高於11% 、占銀行總資產高於13%)，且隔夜拆款利差未如錢荒時的急竄；且逆回購下滑以釋放流動性、財政部TGA以儲備約7,500億美元流動性，貨幣&amp;財政兩端流動性仍支撐股市。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">企業獲利成長仍撐盤有利股市續漲</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">從股市基本面來看，企業回補庫存行情已有跡象，美國新訂單、台灣電子產品銷售增速均明顯增溫，有利帶動庫存回補，不過中國總需求仍弱，市場也有不少的雜音，例如紅海地緣衝突影響運力推升運費（但供給未短缺、未有超額需求、並未缺船缺人），另美國總統選戰膠著，川普於全國支持度及關鍵搖擺州領先，其主張保護關稅、對華強硬增添市場擾動。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">整體而言，全球股市評價面與企業獲利、經濟動能連動，明年獲利成長仍撐盤有利股市續漲，惟金融市場已領先反應，股市高評價壓抑漲幅且未反應衰退風險。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"政策正常化、利息負擔及企業獲利惡化風險，提供Fed於2024上半年降息條件(預防性降息)，惟金融市場已提前反應，股市高評價壓抑漲幅且未反應衰退風險。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202402/7b843feb-debd-45c8-8eb3-f1077732971bview-21.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"全球,股票,債券","postTime":"2024/02/12 00:00:00","startTime":"2024-02-12T00:00:00.0000000+08:00","metaTitle":"上半年Fed可望降息，總經及基本面支撐股市｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2024-02-06T09:30:41.7600000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/3c41cae9-7677-4c75-a631-5eab0ee4fdb3"}],"news01":[{"id":2290,"guid":"540dd33d-f6d6-48cb-9dab-f5c3033474a2","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"新興國家經濟穩定且債信好轉，Fed降息有望推升美元債價格","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">今(2024)年新興國家央行跟隨著美國聯準會(Fed)減緩降息步伐，短期壓抑新興股債市場氛圍，然而在新興國家經濟穩定與債信好轉趨勢下，未來隨Fed降息，有望帶動新興國家恢復降息步伐，有利新興股市與美元債市。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">新興國家央行跟隨Fed，減緩降息步伐，使新興股市今年轉弱</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">為避免匯率貶值帶動輸入性通膨，新興國家央行今年放緩降息步調，本地債利率上揚，不利股市評價，故今年以來截至5月底的新興股市(不含中國)報酬率僅約3%，遠低於2023年全年20.0%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">新興國家本地利率上揚，壓抑新興股市評價</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202406/20240606-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2022/9/30~2024/5/30。<strong>（以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。）</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">而由於新興國家央行政策轉鷹，使新興股市今年轉弱，例如墨西哥、巴西與印尼股市因央行減緩降息幅度，今年表現弱於去年與大盤。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">股市受貨幣政策影響之主要新興國家</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202406/20240606-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2024/5/30。<strong>（以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。）</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">新興國家通膨增速已降至疫情前水準約3.8%，經濟穩定且債信好轉</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">新興國家較歐美早進入升息循環，故通膨提早回落。受惠內需復甦與偏高原物料價格，IMF估計今明兩年經濟增速維持在4.2%，且疫後恢復財政紀律，國家評等升評多於降評。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">IMF對全球經濟增速預估</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202406/20240606-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：IMF，Bloomberg，2024/4。<strong>（以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。）</strong></p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">Fed降息將使新興國家恢復降息步伐，推升新興股市與美元債市</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">參考2019年Fed降息經驗，且目前新興國家實質利率3.0%遠大於美國之1.8%，降息空間更大，故預期新興國家央行連同Fed降息，有望推升新興股價與美元債價格。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">此外，新興國家通膨已降至疫情前水準，且降息空間大於美國，在新興國家債信好轉的情況下，Fed降息帶動新興國家央行降息，亦有利新興股市。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"新興國家受惠內需復甦與偏高原物料價格，IMF估計今明兩年經濟增速維持在4.2%，且疫後恢復財政紀律，國家評等升評多於降評。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202406/view-42.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"全球,債券","postTime":"2024/06/06 10:38:05","startTime":"2024-06-06T10:38:05.8230000+08:00","metaTitle":"新興國家經濟穩定且債信好轉，Fed降息有望推升美元債價格｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2024-06-06T10:52:34.5370000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/540dd33d-f6d6-48cb-9dab-f5c3033474a2"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/28.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/28.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/28.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=28","url2":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&Fund=28","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1072,"updateTime":"2026-04-17T08:57:05.5700000+08:00","guid":"97533182-60bf-4344-9b97-f28cee102845","fundID":"20","twNameFull":"復華全球資產證券化基金-新臺幣A","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa Global Asset Backed Securities Fund-TWD A","ec002":"","twName":"全球資產證券化A","pnav":"23.97","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"-0.04","changeRange":"-0.17%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul><li>主要投資於受惠房價與租金上揚、具高股息特性的不動產投資信託(REITs)與不動產相關股票，追求上漲動能</li><li>布局全球，積極掌握區域輪動趨勢，並降低單一市場風險，提升投資勝率</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2007/07/09","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"上海商業儲蓄銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"1.60%","ec013":"0.250%","ec014":"2.00%(含)以下","ec020":"證券化","ec020_sort":5088,"ec022":"","ec024":"全球","ec026":"證券化","ec030":"T+5日","ec036":"上海商業儲蓄銀行儲蓄部","ec037":"復華全球資產證券化基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":1,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":1,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華全球資產證券化基金-新臺幣A ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"1935643321.000000","roi3m":"6.26%","roi6m":"12.86%","roi1y":"20.20%","roi2y":"22.74%","roi3y":"38.34%","roiLaunch":"108.90%","roiY2D":"6.26%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"1","value02":"1","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"張正宇","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":3067,"guid":"6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 08:54:53","startTime":"2026-04-23T08:54:49.4100000+08:00","metaTitle":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-23T08:58:43.1630000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63"},{"id":3065,"guid":"a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美伊戰爭對股市影響降低</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週美國雖然宣布封鎖荷姆茲海峽，但並未改變股市上漲趨勢。由於美伊可望再重啟談判，且川普釋出已近達成協議，因此股市並未再受美伊戰爭發展，以及油價大幅波動所影響；而美國聯準會(FED)經濟褐皮書，以及週初請失業救濟金人數，皆顯示美國經濟穩定。&nbsp;<br><br>AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然週四台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong><br><br><strong>總計一週（2026/4/13-4/17）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲3.2%、4.5%、6.8%、7.5%；台股週漲3.9%以36804點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑5個bps至4.26%，美元指數跌0.5%至98.2，<strong><u>油價(WTI)週跌13.2%至每桶83.85美元</u></strong>，黃金價格反彈1.9%至每盎司4879.6美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI發展及美國經濟穩定支撐股市正向趨勢</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">因預期美伊可望達成協議，雖然油價仍維持高檔震盪，戰爭結束後包括受損煉油及天然氣設施亦仍需時間恢復，但股市反應未來，且美國能源自主性高，雖然短期物價增速亦將因此上揚，但中長期對油價的預期將可望維持穩定，中長期通膨預期亦未明顯上升。上週公佈的美國3月生產者物價指數(PPI)月增0.5%、核心PPI月增0.1%，皆低於預期。<br><br>FED公布經濟褐皮書，雖因油價上漲將產生潛在物價壓力，但美國整體經濟及就業仍維持穩定，週初請失業救濟金人數降至20.7萬人低檔，再加上AI的樂觀發展，美伊戰爭對美國經濟並未產生太大影響，利率期貨亦顯市FED於年底前可望維持利率不變。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台積電樂觀展望延續，台股長期多頭趨勢不變</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台積電法說會展望持續樂觀，受AI與高效能運算需求強勁帶動，3奈米製程加速擴產並成為成長主力。第一季營收與獲利表現亮眼，稅後淨利顯著成長，毛利率達66.2%並創新高，顯示先進製程帶動獲利能力提升。公司將資本支出展望提高至約520～560億美元偏向上緣上準，用於擴充先進製程與封裝產能。展望第二季，營收預估持續成長、年增率將達四成以上，毛利率維持高檔水準。<br><br>總括而言，台積電延續對於2026年業績展望三成以上成長的預測，且表示AI需求仍非常強勁，佔台股四成以上權重的台積電，以及台灣AI關鍵供應鏈角色的獨特地位，在AI由訓練開始進入推論驅動的階段，算力需求及相關基礎設施建立仍將快速成長，未來2~3年台股企業展望仍正向發展。選擇產品規格、數量、及價格同時提升的公司，繼續長期持有，仍是合適的投資方式。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-90.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/20 09:21:33","startTime":"2026-04-20T09:21:33.3330000+08:00","metaTitle":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-20T09:26:56.7500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea"}],"news01":[{"id":3067,"guid":"6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國與以色列自今(2026)年2月底開始對伊朗發動軍事打擊，如今在伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽的情況下，油輪無法通過而推升國際原油價格大漲，原油期貨價格預期亦因此逐步上調，引發市場對通膨的擔憂。然而美國多數類型通膨預期並未顯著上升，研判美國通膨不至於失控，股市則在景氣支撐下，未來展望仍持續樂觀。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">油輪通過荷姆茲海峽數量七日總和、布蘭特原油價格</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">川普仍有極大壓力壓低國內能源價格</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於油價影響美國總統川普的國內支持度，市場普遍認為今年底期中選舉前，川普所屬的共和黨有極大壓低油價誘因。&nbsp;<br><br>而另一方面，通膨擔憂已令市場及美國聯準會(Fed)都趨於謹慎，市場目前預期Fed今年將傾向按兵不動，今年3月份FOMC會議即維持利率在3.5%~3.75%不變，大多數與會者判斷，通膨上行風險與就業下行風險均已增加，在評估戰爭影響下仍按兵不動、維持利率穩定。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售汽油價格、川普不支持度</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260422-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/4/5。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動需求已降溫，螺旋性通膨風險有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據美國最新的職缺數及失業人數資料顯示，美國勞動需求持續降溫，將使薪資缺乏上行動力，進而限制了通膨風險。&nbsp;<br><br>此外，當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。整體而言，即使短期間市場情緒轉差，但尚未達極度悲觀水準，觀察VIX指數與股市情緒指標小幅惡化，但還未達過去股市底部時水準。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">當前環境與2022年大不相同</div></div></div><div class=\"relative\"><div class=\"editor-table-slide-hint flex align-items-center absolute\"><img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-left.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"text-12-regular lh-18\">滑動瀏覽</span> <img src=\"/assets/editor/editor-table-slide-arrow-right.svg\" alt=\"\"></div><div class=\"editor-table-slide-container\"><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-slide editor-table-slide-3\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">項目</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2022年烏俄戰爭前</th><th class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 color-white vertical-middle mt-0\">2026年美伊戰爭前</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">整體總經背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">疫後復甦期，需求強、供應鏈未完全修復，通膨原本就高；再疊加烏俄戰爭推升能源與商品價格</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求與就業已較前幾年降溫；主要是中東戰事帶來能源與航運風險</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">通膨水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI年比約7~8%，本就失控</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">CPI 年比約2.5~3.0%，往目標水準(2%)靠近</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">Fed利率水準</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率維持在0%附近，極度寬鬆</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">利率在3.50%–3.75%，仍略高於中性水準</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">需求/就業背景</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">需求強，勞動市場火熱</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">成長與就業較2022年降溫，Fed也明言就業增幅偏低</td></tr><tr><td class=\"text-9-medium lh-18 text-center background-gray-200\">外部衝擊性質</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">油、天然氣、糧食、供應鏈多重衝擊同步爆發</td><td class=\"text-9-light lh-18 text-center background-gray-100\">以油價/航運/荷姆茲海峽為主，衝擊較集中</td></tr></tbody></table></figure></div></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/4/8。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">景氣向上支撐，股市下檔風險相對有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業景氣持續谷底回升，限制股市下檔風險，尤其美股指數評價逐步回到合理水準，加上美股指數預估獲利增速，現階段仍在持續向上，評價則已大幅修正至接近長期平均水準，股市仍有基本面的景氣支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"當前環境與2022年大不相同，預期美國通膨更像是降溫進程被暫時打斷，短期通膨升溫但不至於失控。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/23 08:54:53","startTime":"2026-04-23T08:54:49.4100000+08:00","metaTitle":"美國通膨短期升溫但不至於失控，景氣持續支撐股市｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-23T08:58:43.1630000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/6f403eee-2e3b-479b-84aa-44a819c79e63"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/20.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/20.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=20","url2":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&Fund=20","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1073,"updateTime":"2026-04-17T08:57:16.8700000+08:00","guid":"9b936385-cd76-4874-94da-d59396407ca0","fundID":"21","twNameFull":"復華全球資產證券化基金-新臺幣B","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa Global Asset Backed Securities Fund-TWD B","ec002":"(基金之配息來源可能為本金)","twName":"全球資產證券化B","pnav":"13.61","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"-0.02","changeRange":"-0.15%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul><li>主要投資於受惠房價與租金上揚、具高股息特性的不動產投資信託(REITs)與不動產相關股票，追求上漲動能</li><li>布局全球，積極掌握區域輪動趨勢，並降低單一市場風險，提升投資勝率</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2007/07/09","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"上海商業儲蓄銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"1.60%","ec013":"0.250%","ec014":"2.00%(含)以下","ec020":"證券化","ec020_sort":5088,"ec022":"季配","ec024":"全球","ec026":"證券化","ec028":"","ec030":"T+5日","ec036":"上海商業儲蓄銀行儲蓄部","ec037":"復華全球資產證券化基金專戶","ec038":"—","ec039":"","ec040":"每年3、6、9、12月底","ec193":"100000","ec312":1,"ec314":1,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p><p>表格所示為含息報酬率。走勢圖為不含息之績效。</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"<p>註1：除透過基金銷售機構以自己名義為投資人申購或買回本基金、壽險業者之投資型保單申購或買回本基金或其他經經理公司同意者外，分配之給付金額未達新台幣1,000元時，受益人同意經理公司以該筆分配金額再申購本基金受益權單位。</p><p>註2：配息率並非等於基金報酬率，於獲配息時，宜一併注意基金淨值之變動。</p><p>註3：收益分配紀錄查詢區間不可超過三年。</p><p>註4：上述配息組成項目表中，可分配淨利益為信託契約所載之可分配收益扣除基金應負擔相關成本費用。本基金配息前未先完全扣除應負擔之相關費用，故配息可能涉及本金。</p>","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":0,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"—","isProspectusBrief":"N","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華全球資產證券化基金-新臺幣B 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降息將至， REITs 喜迎轉機","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">REITs以收取不動產租金收入為主，投資REITs有類似當包租公的概念</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">REITs (Real Estate Investment Trust，不動產投資信託公司) 的主要獲利來源，為商用不動產的租金收入，並會將收益配發出來；因此，投資REITs就好比當包租公。REITs具有高股息的特性，但股價對利率走勢較為敏感，像是2022年起美國聯準會(Fed)快速升息，REITs評價受壓而表現不振；但當利率下滑時，因未來租金收入的折現價值提升，有利於REITs評價上升。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">降息大門開啟，壓抑許久的REITs將搭上降息順風車，迎來評價修復機會</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">隨著通膨獲得控制，Fed轉為更加關注就業市場變化，在8月份全球央行年會中，Fed主席明確表示降息時間已至。目前美國 REITs的股價，相較於淨資產價值，折價約10%，也低於過去近二十年來的平均水準。預期未來隨著降息循環展開、市場利率下滑，REITs股價有機會因評價修復，而具有較佳的反彈動能。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202408/20240830-1.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Citi、Bloomberg，2024/8/28。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">資料中心、醫療、倉儲REITs，建置需求強，相關REITs的營收成長動能佳</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">從產業基本面來看，目前REITs公司的負債比率較低，有充足的銀彈可以透過併購來成長。此外，因AI等大量資料運算處理而迎來強勁需求的資料中心(Data Center)，以及因應高齡化社會到來的醫療院所、護理之家與養老院，還有受惠於電商消費相關的物流倉儲，因有較高建置需求與租金成長率，也為此類REITs帶來股價與股息雙成長的機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202408/20240830-2.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Citi，2024/6。EBITDA是指稅、息、折舊及攤銷前之獲利。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">REITs可望迎來轉機，重獲市場關注</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">REITs目前股息殖利率約4.3%，高於S&amp;P500指數的1.3%及美國十年期公債殖利率的3.8%(<strong>股息殖利率不代表基金實際收益與配息情形</strong>。資料來源：Bloomberg，2024/8/28)。由於REITs的高股息特性，加上基本面推動的股息成長性，與降息帶來的評價修復機會，並考慮到在其他類股漲多之後，因應類股輪動、尋求落後補漲機會，與分散風險需求，都有望使REITs迎來轉機，重獲關注。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>(以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表本基金之績效，本基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。投資建議僅供參考，投資人仍須依自身投資需求與風險承受度評估。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><strong><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> </strong><span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\"><strong>我要母子基金循環投資</strong></span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</strong></a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><strong><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> </strong><span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\"><strong>我還不是復華客戶</strong></span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</strong></a></div></div></div><p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p>","summary":"美國聯準會(Fed) 在今(2024)年9月降息應已成定局，預期至今年底有3~4碼降息機會。過去兩年受利率上升衝擊、股價表現落後的REITs有望在經濟軟著陸情境與降息環境中，迎來評價修復機會，兼具高股息特性與股價成長動能，成為在債券和高評價科技股之外的配置選擇。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202408/view-38.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"REITs,全球","postTime":"2024/08/30 09:16:35","startTime":"2024-08-30T09:16:35.1430000+08:00","metaTitle":"Fed 降息將至， 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","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"16609091787.000000","roi3m":"0.34%","roi6m":"0.67%","roi1y":"1.33%","roi2y":"2.75%","roi3y":"3.92%","roiLaunch":"52.32%","roiY2D":"0.34%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"杜承豪","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[],"news01":[],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/02.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/02.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=02","url2":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&Fund=02","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1018,"updateTime":"2024-09-04T13:57:22.0630000+08:00","guid":"00287b74-ddbb-42cf-8ed9-0da7f9043515","fundID":"105","twNameFull":"復華5至10年期投資等級債券指數基金-美元","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa 5-10 Year Investment Grade Bond Index Fund-USD","ec002":"","twName":"5至10年期投資等級債美元","pnav":"9.75","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"-0.01","changeRange":"-0.10%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">本基金追蹤彭博美歐5至10年期投資等級債券流動指數，成分證券為接近中天期的美元及歐元計價投資等級債券，涵蓋主權及公司債券，信用評等較佳&nbsp;<br>&nbsp;</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">追蹤指數操作，資訊相對透明</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2019/09/04","ec006":"美元","ec010":"永豐商業銀行","ec009":"RR2","ec012":"0.50%","ec013":"0.08%~0.16%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資指數型","ec020_sort":5091,"ec022":"","ec024":"全球","ec026":"指數型","ec027":"0.15%","ec028":"到期日距今5至10年之投資等級債券，涵蓋美元計價主權及公司債券、歐元計價公司債券，單一債券最小流通在外面額須達等值7.5億美元或7.5億歐元以上。","ec029":"基金成立日起：申購當日淨值x (1+申購交易費率)。\r\n申購價格以四捨五入方式計算至小數點第四位，實際申購單位數以經理公司帳載為憑。","ec030":"T+6日","ec036":"永豐商業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華5至10年期投資等級債券指數基金專戶","ec038":"彭博美歐5至10年期投資等級債券流動指數","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購價格</span><span lang=\"EN-US\"> = </span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購當日淨值</span><span lang=\"EN-US\"> x (1 + </span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購交易費率</span><span lang=\"EN-US\">)</span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">，申購價格以四捨五入方式計算至小數點第四位，實際申購單位數以經理公司帳載為憑。</span></p><p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"I34802US","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華5至10年期投資等級債券指數基金-美元 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":0,"fundSize_TWD":"1968842656.419600","roi3m":"-0.51%","roi6m":"0.31%","roi1y":"4.18%","roi2y":"8.73%","roi3y":"8.98%","roiLaunch":"-2.90%","roiY2D":"-0.51%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"劉昌祚","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":3065,"guid":"a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美伊戰爭對股市影響降低</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週美國雖然宣布封鎖荷姆茲海峽，但並未改變股市上漲趨勢。由於美伊可望再重啟談判，且川普釋出已近達成協議，因此股市並未再受美伊戰爭發展，以及油價大幅波動所影響；而美國聯準會(FED)經濟褐皮書，以及週初請失業救濟金人數，皆顯示美國經濟穩定。&nbsp;<br><br>AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然週四台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong><br><br><strong>總計一週（2026/4/13-4/17）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲3.2%、4.5%、6.8%、7.5%；台股週漲3.9%以36804點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑5個bps至4.26%，美元指數跌0.5%至98.2，<strong><u>油價(WTI)週跌13.2%至每桶83.85美元</u></strong>，黃金價格反彈1.9%至每盎司4879.6美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI發展及美國經濟穩定支撐股市正向趨勢</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">因預期美伊可望達成協議，雖然油價仍維持高檔震盪，戰爭結束後包括受損煉油及天然氣設施亦仍需時間恢復，但股市反應未來，且美國能源自主性高，雖然短期物價增速亦將因此上揚，但中長期對油價的預期將可望維持穩定，中長期通膨預期亦未明顯上升。上週公佈的美國3月生產者物價指數(PPI)月增0.5%、核心PPI月增0.1%，皆低於預期。<br><br>FED公布經濟褐皮書，雖因油價上漲將產生潛在物價壓力，但美國整體經濟及就業仍維持穩定，週初請失業救濟金人數降至20.7萬人低檔，再加上AI的樂觀發展，美伊戰爭對美國經濟並未產生太大影響，利率期貨亦顯市FED於年底前可望維持利率不變。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台積電樂觀展望延續，台股長期多頭趨勢不變</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台積電法說會展望持續樂觀，受AI與高效能運算需求強勁帶動，3奈米製程加速擴產並成為成長主力。第一季營收與獲利表現亮眼，稅後淨利顯著成長，毛利率達66.2%並創新高，顯示先進製程帶動獲利能力提升。公司將資本支出展望提高至約520～560億美元偏向上緣上準，用於擴充先進製程與封裝產能。展望第二季，營收預估持續成長、年增率將達四成以上，毛利率維持高檔水準。<br><br>總括而言，台積電延續對於2026年業績展望三成以上成長的預測，且表示AI需求仍非常強勁，佔台股四成以上權重的台積電，以及台灣AI關鍵供應鏈角色的獨特地位，在AI由訓練開始進入推論驅動的階段，算力需求及相關基礎設施建立仍將快速成長，未來2~3年台股企業展望仍正向發展。選擇產品規格、數量、及價格同時提升的公司，繼續長期持有，仍是合適的投資方式。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-90.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/20 09:21:33","startTime":"2026-04-20T09:21:33.3330000+08:00","metaTitle":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-20T09:26:56.7500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea"},{"id":2388,"guid":"0c47b5a0-3c22-43fa-88e8-bf9c15fde22b","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"Fed降息有助消費及投資動能提升，美國經濟可望軟著陸","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">近期美國失業率自低檔反彈，引發市場對經濟衰退的疑慮，並增加股市波動，然而觀察美國經濟體質良好，美國聯準會(Fed)也可望展開降息循環，研判將帶動美國經濟軟著陸，維持美股長多趨勢。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">Fed降息可望讓美國經濟軟著陸</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">從現階段美國利率水準來看，高利率的主要影響包括壓抑房屋銷售、耐久財消費，以及企業投資意願，直接衝擊製造業景氣，不過在物價、薪資增速下滑的情況下，通膨壓力趨緩並讓Fed能夠安心降息。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">此外，美國經濟體質健康且沒有結構問題，Fed降息將可望產生消費、投資及經濟動能回復的效果，即經濟持續擴張的軟著陸，進而再帶動股市上漲財富效果、耐久財及房屋銷售回穩、企業投資意願上升、就業市場回穩。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國失業率低檔反彈，經濟衰退疑慮上升</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202409/20240906-1.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：BCA Research，2024/8。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，美國製造業疲弱，但服務業穩定支撐經濟擴張，觀察美國製造業、服務業及整體ISM，可發現目前整體經濟動能下滑，ISM製造業指數呈現衰退，但服務業維持擴張，使經濟持續成長。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國製造業、服務業及整體ISM</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202409/20240906-2.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2024/8。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">企業獲利成長支撐股市表現</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">由於高利率壓抑企業投資意願及成長動能，加上短期就業市場放緩，經濟衰退疑慮上升，影響股市表現轉為區間走勢，市場預期Fed降息將可望帶動股市恢復信心，並使經濟動能回復。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">展望後市，AI發展及企業獲利成長將可望提供股市下檔支撐，但目前股市正值整理期間，且在投資人對AI期待已高的情況下，高評價股表現仍受壓抑。預期第三季企業獲利成長、動能回落，但第四季動能將再加速，企業獲利成長形成股市支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國零售銷售及S&amp;P500年增率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202409/20240906-3.png\"></div><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2024/8。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>(以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不必然代表本基金之績效，本基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。投資建議僅供參考，投資人仍須依自身投資需求與風險承受度評估。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><strong><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> </strong><span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\"><strong>我要母子基金循環投資</strong></span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</strong></a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><strong><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> </strong><span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\"><strong>我還不是復華客戶</strong></span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</strong></a></div></div></div><p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p>","summary":"經濟衰退疑慮上升增加股市波動，但美國經濟體質良好及AI持續發展，Fed降息可望軟著陸，第四季後股市表現仍可期，建議分散配置、逢低加碼。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202409/view-21.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,美國","postTime":"2024/09/06 10:05:00","startTime":"2024-09-06T10:05:00.4570000+08:00","metaTitle":"Fed降息有助消費及投資動能提升，經濟可望軟著陸｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2024-09-06T10:09:26.6700000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/0c47b5a0-3c22-43fa-88e8-bf9c15fde22b"}],"news01":[{"id":3065,"guid":"a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美伊戰爭對股市影響降低</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週美國雖然宣布封鎖荷姆茲海峽，但並未改變股市上漲趨勢。由於美伊可望再重啟談判，且川普釋出已近達成協議，因此股市並未再受美伊戰爭發展，以及油價大幅波動所影響；而美國聯準會(FED)經濟褐皮書，以及週初請失業救濟金人數，皆顯示美國經濟穩定。&nbsp;<br><br>AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然週四台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong><br><br><strong>總計一週（2026/4/13-4/17）美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲3.2%、4.5%、6.8%、7.5%；台股週漲3.9%以36804點收盤</strong>。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下滑5個bps至4.26%，美元指數跌0.5%至98.2，<strong><u>油價(WTI)週跌13.2%至每桶83.85美元</u></strong>，黃金價格反彈1.9%至每盎司4879.6美元。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI發展及美國經濟穩定支撐股市正向趨勢</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">因預期美伊可望達成協議，雖然油價仍維持高檔震盪，戰爭結束後包括受損煉油及天然氣設施亦仍需時間恢復，但股市反應未來，且美國能源自主性高，雖然短期物價增速亦將因此上揚，但中長期對油價的預期將可望維持穩定，中長期通膨預期亦未明顯上升。上週公佈的美國3月生產者物價指數(PPI)月增0.5%、核心PPI月增0.1%，皆低於預期。<br><br>FED公布經濟褐皮書，雖因油價上漲將產生潛在物價壓力，但美國整體經濟及就業仍維持穩定，週初請失業救濟金人數降至20.7萬人低檔，再加上AI的樂觀發展，美伊戰爭對美國經濟並未產生太大影響，利率期貨亦顯市FED於年底前可望維持利率不變。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">台積電樂觀展望延續，台股長期多頭趨勢不變</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台積電法說會展望持續樂觀，受AI與高效能運算需求強勁帶動，3奈米製程加速擴產並成為成長主力。第一季營收與獲利表現亮眼，稅後淨利顯著成長，毛利率達66.2%並創新高，顯示先進製程帶動獲利能力提升。公司將資本支出展望提高至約520～560億美元偏向上緣上準，用於擴充先進製程與封裝產能。展望第二季，營收預估持續成長、年增率將達四成以上，毛利率維持高檔水準。<br><br>總括而言，台積電延續對於2026年業績展望三成以上成長的預測，且表示AI需求仍非常強勁，佔台股四成以上權重的台積電，以及台灣AI關鍵供應鏈角色的獨特地位，在AI由訓練開始進入推論驅動的階段，算力需求及相關基礎設施建立仍將快速成長，未來2~3年台股企業展望仍正向發展。選擇產品規格、數量、及價格同時提升的公司，繼續長期持有，仍是合適的投資方式。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"AI樂觀發展繼續帶動科技及半導體股上揚，雖然台積電公布優於預期的第一季財報及樂觀展望，但股價利多出盡下跌，惟整體仍不影響中長期正向發展趨勢。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-90.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/20 09:21:33","startTime":"2026-04-20T09:21:33.3330000+08:00","metaTitle":"美伊戰爭影響降低，股市反應樂觀基本面續揚｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-20T09:26:56.7500000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/a51065fa-7443-44b9-84b1-c80eaa18a8ea"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/105.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/105.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/105.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"","url2":"","file01":"/docupload/download/help/K1.pdf"},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、計算本基金成立至今之淨值波動度，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1019,"updateTime":"2024-09-04T13:58:41.2770000+08:00","guid":"aa34d20a-5713-404c-b051-3d67656ce3e9","fundID":"104","twNameFull":"復華5至10年期投資等級債券指數基金-新臺幣","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa 5-10 Year Investment Grade Bond Index Fund-TWD","ec002":"","twName":"5至10年期投資等級債新臺幣","pnav":"9.82","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"0.01","changeRange":"0.10%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">本基金追蹤彭博美歐5至10年期投資等級債券流動指數，成分證券為接近中天期的美元及歐元計價投資等級債券，涵蓋主權及公司債券，信用評等較佳&nbsp;<br>&nbsp;</li></ul><ul><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">追蹤指數操作，資訊相對透明</li></ul><p style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">&nbsp;</p>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2019/09/04","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"永豐商業銀行","ec009":"RR2","ec012":"0.50%","ec013":"0.08%~0.16%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資指數型","ec020_sort":5091,"ec022":"","ec024":"全球","ec026":"指數型","ec027":"0.15%","ec028":"到期日距今5至10年之投資等級債券，涵蓋美元計價主權及公司債券、歐元計價公司債券，單一債券最小流通在外面額須達等值7.5億美元或7.5億歐元以上。","ec029":"基金成立日起：申購當日淨值x (1+申購交易費率)。\r\n申購價格以四捨五入方式計算至小數點第四位，實際申購單位數以經理公司帳載為憑。","ec030":"T+6日","ec036":"永豐商業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華5至10年期投資等級債券指數基金專戶","ec038":"彭博美歐5至10年期投資等級債券流動指數","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購價格</span><span lang=\"EN-US\"> = </span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購當日淨值</span><span lang=\"EN-US\"> x (1 + </span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購交易費率</span><span lang=\"EN-US\">)</span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">，申購價格以四捨五入方式計算至小數點第四位，實際申購單位數以經理公司帳載為憑。</span></p><p><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</span></p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"I34802US","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":1,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華5至10年期投資等級債券指數基金-新臺幣 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"23312101542.000000","roi3m":"1.12%","roi6m":"5.31%","roi1y":"0.40%","roi2y":"8.77%","roi3y":"14.55%","roiLaunch":"-0.80%","roiY2D":"1.12%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"1","value02":"1","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"劉昌祚","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":2588,"guid":"82dced0b-37c0-4b58-8c82-29c4142f6b52","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"川普掀起全球關稅戰，對於通膨、消費的4個觀察 (語音🔊)","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國總統川普掀起全球關稅戰，引發通膨、利率及經濟等不確定性升高，在訊息一片混亂的情況下，該如何掌握趨勢並對抗市場波動？<strong>整體而言，目前通膨增速並未加快，聯邦資金利率亦遠高於通膨增速，意味著Fed未來降息空間仍大，並有利股市的評價面提升，而企業獲利雙位數成長，亦可望支撐股市多頭趨勢</strong>。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">5分鐘，直接聽 (語音🔊)</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/EDM/image/2025/20250227.mp3\" target=\"_blank\">投資訊息好混亂，關稅對通膨、消費的重點觀察！</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">觀察1. 通膨並未加速</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國通膨自2024年第四季起略有落底反彈情況，近來更因為川普的關稅政策恐將導致物價上漲，不但美國密西根大學調查消費者對長期通膨的預期升至1995年以來新高，投資人並擔憂通膨一旦上升，將使得美國聯準會(Fed)降息的時程停滯。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">然而長期觀察美國消費者物價指數(CPI)、個人消費支出物價指數(PCE Index)年增率，<u>美國通膨並未加速，而且通膨占比最高的租金持續降溫，醫療價格亦維持穩定，加上美國薪資增速也降至接近疫情前水準</u>，整體而言，目前通膨增速並未加快，聯邦資金利率亦遠高於通膨增速，意味著Fed未來降息空間仍大，並有利股市的評價面提升。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國核心CPI、PCE年增率、聯邦資金利率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202502/20250225-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/1/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">觀察2. 消費復甦有利支撐經濟</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">雖然川普關稅政策引發通膨疑慮並使得消費信心下降，但Fed於2024年9月展開降息循環後，原本受到高利率壓抑數年的耐久財消費已開始自谷底回升，並有利支撐經濟穩健。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國消費年增率、耐久財消費年增率、Fed利率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202502/20250225-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2015/1/1~2025/2/21。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，美國經濟之所以能夠保持強韌，一個重要原因為消費者債務比率下降，在美國家庭低債務負擔的情況下，美國經濟可承受高利率水準，高利率對美國經濟衝擊也遠低於過往。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國名目GDP年增率、聯邦資金利率、家庭債務負擔比</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202502/20250225-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/1/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，不同於2018年時，美國製造業景氣與庫存均位於循環高點，如今美國的製造業景氣正處於低檔向上階段，研判受川普關稅政策影響較小。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">觀察3. 關稅對美GDP、CPI影響有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據各研究機構推估，川普祭出「對等關稅」政策可能對印度、越南等國影響較大，但其對美國的經濟影響則顯著小於中國、加拿大及墨西哥，而即使加上對等關稅，對美國整體的經濟及物價影響應仍小於1%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">研究機構推估美國對加墨商品加徵25%關稅、對中國加徵10%關稅影響</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202502/20250225-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：各研究機構、復華投信整理，2025/2/5。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>*Fed工作人員估計平均關稅稅率+1%，GDP相對應-0.14%、核心PCE+0.09%概略推估。**高盛估計平均關稅稅率+1%，GDP相對應-0.05%(含報復措施、收入增加及減稅抵銷)、核心PCE+0.10%。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">觀察4. 企業獲利雙位數成長支撐股市多頭趨勢</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">觀察近半年來儘管降息預期下降，但股市仍呈現類股輪動上漲，其主要原因即各國股市企業獲利大多可望維持雙位數成長。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">此外，2025年以來在AI及台、美股市主旋律的多頭趨勢下，歐股、日股與大中華股市也同步參與、持續輪動，資金並由漲多的科技股流出至金融、通訊類股。<strong>對投資人來說，<u>分散布局多元資產及挑選優質標的，將是掌握投資機會的一大關鍵</u></strong>。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">主要股市企業獲利成長率及本益比</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\">&gt; <img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202502/20250225-5.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：IBES Thomson Reuters，Bloomberg，2025/2/21。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"通膨增速並未加快，聯邦資金利率亦遠高於通膨增速，意味著Fed未來降息空間仍大，並有利股市的評價面提升。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202502/view-93.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"投資教育專欄,金複合,股票","postTime":"2025/02/27 09:17:27","startTime":"2025-02-27T09:17:27.2930000+08:00","metaTitle":"川普掀起全球關稅戰，掌握趨勢的4大觀察｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-07-04T16:45:46.3370000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/82dced0b-37c0-4b58-8c82-29c4142f6b52"},{"id":2579,"guid":"ea0cfe1b-9820-474d-9cfa-2443b82d6468","articleCategory":"市場週報","title":"對等關稅議題牽動台股，但長期回歸產業競爭力","contents":"<div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-2 text-9-medium\">【焦點事件】</div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3\">對等關稅議題牽動台股，但長期回歸產業競爭力</div><div class=\"unindent-content-1-deco\">&nbsp;</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">川普宣布將推動「對等關稅」，也就是對於美國商品課徵高關稅的國家實施相同稅率，並再度提到台灣搶走美國晶片生意，但最終目的應該是要求擴大對美投資。</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">台灣與美國關稅稅率差異小，不見得是首要目標。而台積電的技術無可取代，可能有轉嫁成本的能力，與Intel的製程也不同，因此關稅與調整補助等政策動向更多是談判手段。短期台股盤勢因不確定性而波動，但台廠的競爭優勢與產業成長趨勢仍是支撐股價的長期推手。</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-2 text-9-medium\">【上週市場回顧】</div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3\">關稅消息紛雜、俄烏戰爭轉機，美歐股震盪走高</div><div class=\"unindent-content-1-deco\">&nbsp;</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">川普提出對等關稅，將與各國談判而非立即全面實施，以及美國將與俄羅斯就俄烏戰爭停火進行協商，標普500指數週漲1.5%逼近前高；但台股表現兩樣情，因晶片關稅消息及傳言美國推動台積電與Intel合作，加權指數週跌1.4%。中國科網股續受DeepSeek效應激勵，滬深300及恒生指數週漲1.2%、7.0% 。</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">CPI通膨高於預期但零售銷售走弱，美債走勢盤整。<br><br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-2\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-left text-0\"><img class=\"my-1 mr-2 ml-sm-3 ml-md-0 vertical-sm-top\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/white/book.svg\" alt=\"\" mr-1=\"\"> <span class=\"text-9-medium color-white lh-18 vertical-sm-top\">股票市場</span></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"vertical-sm-middle\"><div class=\"flex\"><span class=\"px-3 mr-sm-0 mr-md-2 text-9-light lh-18\">1</span> <span class=\"text-9-light lh-18 mt-0\">美歐：觀望對等關稅政策、俄烏戰爭浮現停戰希望，股市表現+0.4%~+3.3%。</span></div></td></tr><tr><td class=\"vertical-sm-middle\"><div class=\"flex\"><span class=\"px-3 mr-sm-0 mr-md-2 text-9-light lh-18\">2</span> <span class=\"text-9-light lh-18 mt-0\">台灣：川普有意對晶片課徵關稅，電子權值股拖累台股表現，週跌1.39%。</span></div></td></tr><tr><td class=\"vertical-sm-middle\"><div class=\"flex\"><span class=\"px-3 mr-sm-0 mr-md-2 text-9-light lh-18\">3</span> <span class=\"text-9-light lh-18 mt-0\">陸港：港股受惠DeepSeek推出大漲，AI浪潮帶動技術性牛市，上證週漲1.30%。</span></div></td></tr><tr><td class=\"vertical-sm-middle\"><div class=\"flex\"><span class=\"px-3 mr-sm-0 mr-md-2 text-9-light lh-18\">4</span> <span class=\"text-9-light lh-18 mt-0\">其他亞太：亞太股市漲跌互見，印度股市週跌2.5%表現相對弱勢。</span></div></td></tr><tr><td class=\"vertical-sm-middle\"><div class=\"flex\"><span class=\"px-3 mr-sm-0 mr-md-2 text-9-light lh-18\">5</span> <span class=\"text-9-light lh-18 mt-0\">產業：各產業類股普遍呈現上漲，資訊科技週漲3.2%表現最佳。</span></div></td></tr></tbody></table></figure><p>&nbsp;</p><figure class=\"table\"><table class=\"editor-table editor-table-2\"><thead><tr><th class=\"text-left text-0\"><img class=\"my-1 mr-2 ml-sm-3 ml-md-0 vertical-sm-top\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/white/book.svg\" alt=\"\" mr-1=\"\"> <span class=\"text-9-medium color-white lh-18 vertical-sm-top\">債券市場</span></th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td class=\"vertical-sm-middle\"><div class=\"flex\"><span class=\"px-3 mr-sm-0 mr-md-2 text-9-light lh-18\">1</span><span class=\"text-9-light lh-18 mt-0\">公債：美國CPI通膨高於預期但零售銷售走弱，美十年債殖利率下降2bps至4.48%。</span></div></td></tr><tr><td class=\"vertical-sm-middle\"><div class=\"flex\"><span class=\"px-3 mr-sm-0 mr-md-2 text-9-light lh-18\">2</span> <span class=\"text-9-light lh-18 mt-0\">非投資等級債：信用利差保持低位，美國非投資等級債指數上漲0.26%。</span></div></td></tr><tr><td class=\"vertical-sm-middle\"><div class=\"flex\"><span class=\"px-3 mr-sm-0 mr-md-2 text-9-light lh-18\">3</span> <span class=\"text-9-light lh-18 mt-0\">新興債：美國將與俄羅斯就俄烏進行停火談判，新興美元主權債指數上漲0.12%。</span></div></td></tr></tbody></table></figure><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"關稅與調整補助等政策動向更多是談判手段，短期台股盤勢因不確定性而波動，但台廠的競爭優勢與產業成長趨勢仍是支撐股價的長期推手。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202502/view-71.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"全球,股票,債券","postTime":"2025/02/17 15:04:08","startTime":"2025-02-17T15:04:08.5270000+08:00","metaTitle":"對等關稅議題牽動台股，但長期回歸產業競爭力｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-02-17T15:26:21.1200000+08:00","files":"/UploadFile/Article.file/202502/20250217.pdf","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"1f6bc8d3-8d7e-4dcb-8e3e-b87584ad05e9","category":{"id":20967,"guid":"1f6bc8d3-8d7e-4dcb-8e3e-b87584ad05e9","name":"市場週報","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/weekly-report","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/weekly-report/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","url":"","urlType":"_self","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"市場週報","metaTitle":"市場週報｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/d0e7ad5f-bbf9-430a-8eb3-b2873ac1639dB.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12355,"guid":"efc94e4f-9881-4c1f-a698-288d3dd5e217","name":"市場週報","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/weekly-report/ea0cfe1b-9820-474d-9cfa-2443b82d6468"}],"news01":[{"id":2588,"guid":"82dced0b-37c0-4b58-8c82-29c4142f6b52","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"川普掀起全球關稅戰，對於通膨、消費的4個觀察 (語音🔊)","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國總統川普掀起全球關稅戰，引發通膨、利率及經濟等不確定性升高，在訊息一片混亂的情況下，該如何掌握趨勢並對抗市場波動？<strong>整體而言，目前通膨增速並未加快，聯邦資金利率亦遠高於通膨增速，意味著Fed未來降息空間仍大，並有利股市的評價面提升，而企業獲利雙位數成長，亦可望支撐股市多頭趨勢</strong>。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">5分鐘，直接聽 (語音🔊)</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/Event/EC/EDM/image/2025/20250227.mp3\" target=\"_blank\">投資訊息好混亂，關稅對通膨、消費的重點觀察！</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">觀察1. 通膨並未加速</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國通膨自2024年第四季起略有落底反彈情況，近來更因為川普的關稅政策恐將導致物價上漲，不但美國密西根大學調查消費者對長期通膨的預期升至1995年以來新高，投資人並擔憂通膨一旦上升，將使得美國聯準會(Fed)降息的時程停滯。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">然而長期觀察美國消費者物價指數(CPI)、個人消費支出物價指數(PCE Index)年增率，<u>美國通膨並未加速，而且通膨占比最高的租金持續降溫，醫療價格亦維持穩定，加上美國薪資增速也降至接近疫情前水準</u>，整體而言，目前通膨增速並未加快，聯邦資金利率亦遠高於通膨增速，意味著Fed未來降息空間仍大，並有利股市的評價面提升。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國核心CPI、PCE年增率、聯邦資金利率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202502/20250225-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/1/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">觀察2. 消費復甦有利支撐經濟</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">雖然川普關稅政策引發通膨疑慮並使得消費信心下降，但Fed於2024年9月展開降息循環後，原本受到高利率壓抑數年的耐久財消費已開始自谷底回升，並有利支撐經濟穩健。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國消費年增率、耐久財消費年增率、Fed利率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202502/20250225-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2015/1/1~2025/2/21。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">事實上，美國經濟之所以能夠保持強韌，一個重要原因為消費者債務比率下降，在美國家庭低債務負擔的情況下，美國經濟可承受高利率水準，高利率對美國經濟衝擊也遠低於過往。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">美國名目GDP年增率、聯邦資金利率、家庭債務負擔比</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202502/20250225-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/1/31。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">值得留意的是，不同於2018年時，美國製造業景氣與庫存均位於循環高點，如今美國的製造業景氣正處於低檔向上階段，研判受川普關稅政策影響較小。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">觀察3. 關稅對美GDP、CPI影響有限</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">根據各研究機構推估，川普祭出「對等關稅」政策可能對印度、越南等國影響較大，但其對美國的經濟影響則顯著小於中國、加拿大及墨西哥，而即使加上對等關稅，對美國整體的經濟及物價影響應仍小於1%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">研究機構推估美國對加墨商品加徵25%關稅、對中國加徵10%關稅影響</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202502/20250225-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：各研究機構、復華投信整理，2025/2/5。&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<br>*Fed工作人員估計平均關稅稅率+1%，GDP相對應-0.14%、核心PCE+0.09%概略推估。**高盛估計平均關稅稅率+1%，GDP相對應-0.05%(含報復措施、收入增加及減稅抵銷)、核心PCE+0.10%。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">觀察4. 企業獲利雙位數成長支撐股市多頭趨勢</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">觀察近半年來儘管降息預期下降，但股市仍呈現類股輪動上漲，其主要原因即各國股市企業獲利大多可望維持雙位數成長。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">此外，2025年以來在AI及台、美股市主旋律的多頭趨勢下，歐股、日股與大中華股市也同步參與、持續輪動，資金並由漲多的科技股流出至金融、通訊類股。<strong>對投資人來說，<u>分散布局多元資產及挑選優質標的，將是掌握投資機會的一大關鍵</u></strong>。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">主要股市企業獲利成長率及本益比</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\">&gt; <img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202502/20250225-5.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">資料來源：IBES Thomson Reuters，Bloomberg，2025/2/21。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"通膨增速並未加快，聯邦資金利率亦遠高於通膨增速，意味著Fed未來降息空間仍大，並有利股市的評價面提升。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202502/view-93.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"投資教育專欄,金複合,股票","postTime":"2025/02/27 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申購當日淨值 x (1 + 申購交易費率)，申購價格以四捨五入方式計算至小數點第四位，實際申購單位數以經理公司帳載為憑。</p><p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、計算本基金成立至今之淨值波動度，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"BTSIDMLP","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":1,"isRename":"0","renameArticle":"","metaTitle":"指數型基金推薦，復華已開發國家300股票指數基金-新臺幣｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信指數型基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的基金投資標的，並且提供最具優勢的指數型基金推薦組合。","prepayRate":"          ","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"定時定額0％手續費,存基金","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"27432673305.000000","roi3m":"-3.27%","roi6m":"2.20%","roi1y":"13.10%","roi2y":"25.62%","roi3y":"69.52%","roiLaunch":"128.00%","roiY2D":"-3.27%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"1","value02":"1","value03":"0","value04":"1","manager":[{"name":"吳允翔","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":3052,"guid":"ff93bf7d-0584-41bc-b83f-f11937d40bc5","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"2026年初軟體股為何重挫？AI加速發展下的產業變局與投資機會","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2026年初，美國軟體股經歷了被市場稱為「軟體末日」（Software-mageddon）的劇烈震盪，Anthropic於年初陸續推出Claude相關模型與工具，升高市場對AI可能改寫既有軟體服務商業模式的疑慮，S&amp;P軟體與服務指數在短短兩個月內下跌約 21%、市值大幅蒸發；與此同時，美國科技巨頭亦因鉅額資本支出的投資報酬率前景不明而承壓，受此影響，S&amp;P 500指數整體表現相對受限。&nbsp;<br><br>然而，在軟體股哀鴻遍野之際，硬體、能源與公用事業卻逆勢走強（圖一）。這顯示AI熱潮並非消退，而是隨著產業發展進入新階段，相關類股表現已出現更明顯分化。&nbsp;<br><br>本文將先從AI發展現況切入，說明為何AI主線並未改變，再進一步探討AI加速落地下，哪些產業環節較可能受惠、哪些類型則需審慎看待。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖一：2026年以來（截至2026/2/27），美股大盤、美股七巨頭、硬體、軟體、公用事業、原物料、能源類股累積報酬率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260401-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。&nbsp;</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/2/27。&nbsp;<br>註：美股大盤採標普500指數、美股七巨頭採彭博美國七大科技巨頭指數（含Microsoft、Amazon、Nvidia、Alphabet、Tesla、Meta、Apple）、硬體類股採費城半導體指數、軟體類股採標普500軟體與服務指數、公用事業類股採標普500公用事業指數、原物料類股採標普500原物料指數、能源類股採標普500能源類指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI發展的現況與關鍵挑戰</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">從當前產業發展來看，AI熱潮並未消退，而是進入需求持續擴張、成本快速下降，且瓶頸逐步轉向基礎設施的新階段，主要可從以下三個面向觀察：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">算力投資規模持續擴大</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">儘管軟體股估值修正，但基礎設施投入未減。預估至2027財年，美國四大雲端服務供應商（CSP）的資本支出合計將突破 6,700億美元（圖二），這為硬體供應鏈提供了支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">單位成本崩跌，AI模型應用門檻降低</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">AI使用成本正以指數級速度下降。相較於2023年GPT-4的綜合使用成本*約為每百萬Token 37.5美元，目前的GPT-5 mini與Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite成本已降至每百萬Token 0.6美元左右，跌幅超過95%。這雖有利於AI普及，卻也侵蝕了缺乏護城河的單一功能軟體之定價能力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">從「算力荒」到「能源荒」</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">AI的瓶頸正由晶片供給轉向電力與電力基礎設施。國際能源署（International Energy Agency, IEA）預估全球資料中心用電量未來五年年複合成長率將達14%（圖三）。電力供給與變壓器等硬體建設週期長、供給剛性強，已成為制約AI擴張的關鍵節點。</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">*綜合成本是根據各AI模型官方公布之輸入（提問）與輸出（回答）Token定價，並以市場研究常用之假設（輸入佔75%、輸出佔25%），進行加權估算而成。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖二：美國四大CSP企業資本支出</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260401-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/11。註1：2026~2027年為Bloomberg預估。註2：年度係採用各企業之財年。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖三：全球AI資料中心用電量</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260401-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：國際能源署（International Energy Agency, IEA），2025/4。&nbsp;<br>註1：2025~2030年為IEA估計值。註2：太瓦時（Terawatt-hour, TWh）為衡量能量的單位，1太瓦時=10億度電。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI加速滲透，帶動產業重塑與獲利重分配</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">進一步從產業環節觀察，AI帶來的影響並不一致，不同商業模式與供應鏈位置，未來所面臨的機會與壓力將明顯分化（表一）。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">標準化流程型業務，較可能面臨獲利壓力</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">若企業的獲利模式主要建立在標準化、可重複的流程處理上，未來較可能面臨AI加速滲透所帶來的效率壓力。這類業務未必會被完全取代，但其營運模式預期將由大量人工執行，逐步轉向「AI自動化處理、人工決策覆核」的新架構。&nbsp;<br><br>例如客服、內容製作、基礎程式開發與財務對帳等流程型服務，未來都可能朝此方向調整；若企業無法及時完成轉型，獲利空間與評價均可能承受壓力。這也是今年以來軟體股表現疲弱的重要背景之一：市場擔心的不只是短期成長放緩，更是部分軟體與服務型業務原有的差異化與定價能力，可能在AI普及後受到侵蝕。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">掌握基礎建設與關鍵瓶頸者，較具受惠機會</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">與AI基礎建設擴張直接相關，且具技術門檻、供給限制或需求剛性的環節，受惠機會相對較高。例如，隨著AI日益深入企業流程，資安防護、身分驗證與資料合規等需求可望持續提升；在資料中心擴建與運轉帶動下，電力設備、基礎建設及銅等環節，需求能見度亦相對明確。&nbsp;<br>此外，在硬體供應鏈方面，半導體先進封裝、散熱、電源等領域，因仍具技術門檻與供應限制，中長期前景亦相對偏正向。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">表一：AI產業分化地圖</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260401-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/3/11。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI主線未變，但投資焦點已由追逐題材轉向挑選贏家</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">整體而言，AI 主線並未改變，但評價邏輯已發生轉變。過去市場對AI題材普遍給予高評價的階段已逐步告一段落，如今市場更在意：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">資本支出回收能力</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">科技巨頭的高額投入能否轉化為實際營收。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">關鍵資源掌控力</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">是否掌握電力、水冷散熱或專利封裝等硬性供給門檻。&nbsp;<br><br>考量AI產業分化與市場辨認贏家的過程中，股市表現仍可能反覆震盪，因此在資產配置上，建議以分散為原則，並適度聚焦於掌握關鍵技術、基礎設施與資源瓶頸的相關標的，以因應市場分化與波動延續。&nbsp;<br><strong>(以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">主要股債市展望及說明</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">已開發股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">美伊戰爭雖將推升能源價格，但衝突若能在短期內降溫，對經濟與物價長期結構性影響仍將有限。景氣與企業獲利增長持續，地緣政治事件或使市場短期波動加大，但不影響中期趨勢。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">新興股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">以東北亞為主的新興市場受惠AI ，景氣與企業獲利增長加速、評價仍相對低於已開發股市，多頭趨勢可望持續。然而，因短期漲幅較大，須留意可能出現漲多回檔壓力。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">信用債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">私募信貸不透明度、AI顛覆性及地緣政治事件紛擾等因素，使得信用利差微幅上升，但仍保持在歷史相對低位。考量到美國景氣仍溫和增長，預期整體信用利差大幅擴大的可能性不高，預期信用債指數在短線波動後仍將因孳息而緩步上漲。&nbsp;<br><br>其中，非投資等級債指數因存續期間較短、利率敏感度低，預期將有較佳的孳息效率，而新興市場債指數因存續期間較長，走勢往往較非投資等級債指數震盪，不過在當前利率風險有限且新興債指數殖利率仍高的環境下，故預期也將隨孳息而震盪向上。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">投資等級債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">關稅影響消退及勞動需求放緩有利通膨降溫，但美伊戰爭又為前景添增不確定性，Fed短期內或將陷入觀望，不過根據過往經驗，地緣政治事件往往只會帶來短期波動、不易扭轉整體經濟及金融市場趨勢，加上目前投資等級債指數殖利率約在4~5%，殖利率將為總報酬提供支撐。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">商品市場</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">儘管美國與以色列轟炸伊朗，帶動國際油價短期大幅上漲，但市場多認為，若伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽，亦可能衝擊其外匯收入，因此是否具備長期封鎖條件仍有待觀察。&nbsp;<br><br>從期貨市場來看，目前中長天期油價漲幅明顯低於短天期，顯示市場對此次衝突可能造成的長期能源供給衝擊仍持較審慎看法。若後續戰事未進一步擴大，原物料價格走勢仍可能以震盪整理為主。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>投資新興市場應留意政治風險與經濟情勢變動之影響，波動性與風險程度可能較高。</strong>註：美國投資等級公司債係指彭博美國投資等級公司債指數、美國非投資等級公司債係指彭博美國非投資等級公司債指數、新興美元主權債係指彭博新興美元債指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。本資料僅供參考，不代表投資績效之保證。投資人申購基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不代表基金之績效，基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"過去市場對AI題材普遍給予高評價的時期已逐漸結束，如今投資人更關注的是，科技巨頭的大規模投入能否轉化為實際營收，以及企業是否掌握關鍵資源與技術。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/02 09:30:42","startTime":"2026-04-02T09:30:34.2000000+08:00","metaTitle":"2026年初軟體股為何重挫？AI加速發展下的產業變局與投資機會｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-02T09:32:49.5130000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/ff93bf7d-0584-41bc-b83f-f11937d40bc5"},{"id":2963,"guid":"c146e83a-26a5-4aeb-aaca-445aa26532b4","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"在K型分化中前行 — AI浪潮與降息循環下的2026年市場展望","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">回顧2025年，全球金融市場波動顯著。上半年因美國川普政府推動大規模加徵對等關稅，4月份一度引發全球風險情緒快速降溫，股市短線明顯回檔；所幸其後美國陸續與多國達成貿易共識，加上AI投資持續推進，科技供應鏈強勢反彈，並帶動全球股市回升。&nbsp;<br><br>然而，進入11月後，市場逐步反映評價偏高與AI變現進程不確定性等疑慮，獲利了結賣壓升溫，科技股走弱帶動主要股市指數自高檔回落。從2025年初至11月底為止，標普500指數上漲16%、台灣加權指數上漲20%、美國十年期公債殖利率下滑56個基點至4.01%，全球主要債市亦上漲8~11%不等（圖一）。&nbsp;<br><br>從經濟與金融市場結構觀察，美國勞動市場雖呈現溫和降溫，但AI的蓬勃發展不僅持續提振股市表現，也更集中地推動高資產族群財富累積，進而支撐消費與經濟韌性，使「K型分化」格局愈發鮮明。邁向2026年，在高度分化且變數交織的宏觀環境下，美國聯準會將如何校準貨幣政策路徑？AI相關股票能否持續作為支撐市場的重要動能？&nbsp;<br><br>本文將聚焦上述核心議題，提供投資人市場脈絡與研判框架，以因應新一年的挑戰與機會。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖一：2025年以來，全球主要股債市漲跌幅</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/20260102-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/1/1~2025/11/28。註：全球股市採MSCI AC世界指數（美元計價）、美股採標普500指數（美元計價）、歐股採道瓊歐洲600指數（歐元計價）、陸股採中國上證指數（人民幣計價）、台股採台灣加權指數（台幣計價）、新興股市採MSCI新興市場指數（美元計價）、投資等級債採彭博美國投資等級公司美元債指數、非投資等級債採彭博美國非投資等級美元債指數、新興市場債採彭博新興市場美元主權債指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">疲弱的勞動需求 vs. AI驅動的強勁資本支出，美國K型經濟分化加劇</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2025年以來，美國經濟的K型分化趨勢更為明確，高收入族群的財富與收入持續攀升，相較之下，低收入家庭在收入成長停滯與物價壓力未歇的雙重擠壓下，生活負擔沉重。推動此一分化的重要因素之一，正是AI浪潮所帶來的結構性改變。&nbsp;<br><br>AI投資不僅提升企業生產力，也推升金融資產價格。由於美國金融資產的持有高度集中於中高收入族群，股市上漲有效支撐其消費與投資信心，成為支撐整體經濟的重要力量。然而，企業面對景氣不確定性時，普遍採取較為保守的人力策略，包括放緩招募、凍結新增職缺及遇缺不補等；同時AI技術也開始在部分初階與重複性職位中展現替代效果，從而使勞動需求降溫。&nbsp;<br><br>值得留意的是，目前美國企業整體資本支出明顯增加，但招聘活動卻在降溫，顯示企業更傾向以技術與設備投資取代人力擴張（圖二）。此一分化亦進一步反映在消費行為上，中低收入族群因實質所得成長有限，逐步縮減非必要支出，而高收入族群受惠於資產價格上漲，高端零售、奢侈消費與旅遊需求仍具韌性。&nbsp;<br><br>整體而言，美國經濟並非全面走弱，而是在AI資本支出與高端消費支撐下，呈現「部分領域強、部分領域弱」的高度分化K型成長格局。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖二：美國企業資本支出與非農企業雇用率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/20260102-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：FRED。非農雇用率採月資料，截至2025/10；美國整體企業資本支出採季資料，截至2025年第二季。註：美國JOLTS非農雇用率指的是每個月美國非農業部門新增或重新聘用員工的人數占整體就業人數的比率，反映美國勞動力需求情況。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國勞動下行風險增，通膨和緩，2026年聯準會謹慎降息趨勢不變</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在K型經濟背景下，美國總體經濟的風險焦點正逐步由「通膨是否失控」轉向「勞動市場轉弱」。近期數據顯示，雖然失業率並未顯著攀升，但新增就業人數與職位空缺均呈現放緩趨勢，顯示勞動需求持續降溫，就業市場的下行風險正逐步升高。&nbsp;<br><br>通膨方面，目前美國PCE通膨率約為2.7%，仍略高於聯準會2%的長期目標，但推升通膨的壓力已逐漸緩解。隨著勞動市場降溫，薪資增速趨於穩定；同時，油價維持相對低檔，有助於壓抑能源與整體成本壓力；此外，若川普政府後續在民意壓力下調降部分關稅，相關商品物價壓力亦可望進一步減輕。綜合上述發展，預期通膨再度大幅上行的風險相對有限（圖三）。&nbsp;<br><br>在此環境下，2026年聯準會仍具備進一步降息的政策空間，以避免經濟過度降溫。然而，過去錯判通膨為暫時性的經驗，使聯準會在政策決策上更趨謹慎，委員間意見亦可能出現分歧，決策將高度仰賴後續經濟數據表現。整體而言，預期2026年聯準會將維持謹慎的降息步調，仍有助於美國公債殖利率維持趨勢性下行（圖四），並支撐金融市場風險偏好。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖三：美國通膨數據實際及預估值</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/20260102-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/11/28，註：個人消費支出物價指數(PCE)為聯準會關注的通膨指標；核心PCE為排除價格波動度較大的能源與食品項目。PCE實際資料至2025年9月，虛線為Bloomberg於2025/11/28之預估值。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖四：美國十年期公債殖利率及聯準會政策利率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/20260102-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2025/12/11。2026年~2028年政策利率為2025年12月FOMC會議所公布之政策利率點陣圖。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">科技巨頭2025年第三季業績和未來指引普遍優於預期，AI投資熱潮尚未見頂</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">AI是支撐2025年市場的重要趨勢。雖然科技股於11月因評價偏高而出現技術性修正，但整體AI生態基本面仍然強勁，全球半導體銷售金額持續創下歷史新高（圖五），顯示上升趨勢尚未出現反轉訊號。&nbsp;<br><br>2025年第三季科技巨頭的業績與財測普遍優於市場預期，雲端服務、數位廣告及硬體終端等領域皆有亮眼表現；同時企業對AI的資本支出仍持續加碼，而從自由現金流觀察，主要科技龍頭仍維持充沛的現金部位（圖六），財務體質依舊穩健。&nbsp;<br><br>更重要的是，近期AI應用也正從科技業擴散至醫療、金融、製造、流程自動化等多個領域，顯示全球成長動能有機會由過去「AI一枝獨秀」逐步轉向「多點開花」，投資機會可望更為多元。&nbsp;<br><br>不過，仍須留意在高基期環境下，市場對財報與財測的容錯度相對降低，未來若科技巨頭無法滿足市場的高度期待，股價波動可能放大。總結而言，2026年AI與科技股投資前景仍具吸引力，但選股難度與波動風險同步上升，風險管理與資產分散配置將更為重要。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖五：全球半導體銷售金額與年增率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/20260102-5.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2020/10/31~2025/10/31，月資料。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖六：美國科技七巨頭自由現金流</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/20260102-6.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。 </strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2015/3/31~2025/9/30，季資料。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">全球經濟仍穩健，企業獲利預估持續成長</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">展望2026年，全球主要經濟體可望延續溫和成長的態勢。美國方面，在降息循環持續推進與AI發展前景帶動下，經濟仍展現一定韌性，2026年GDP增速有望達2.1%；歐元區方面，製造業PMI已自2025年的深度萎縮中逐步回升，後續在德國推動財政擴張，以及內需仍具支撐力等因素挹注下，2026年經濟預期可維持溫和擴張；台灣則持續受惠於AI相關需求強勁，半導體與關鍵零組件出口動能維持高檔，仍將是支撐整體經濟成長的主要驅動力。儘管2026年成長率可能較前期回落，仍可望維持約2.1%的成長（圖七）。&nbsp;<br><br>在全球景氣維持韌性、關稅政策不確定性相對降溫，以及降息帶動融資成本逐步下滑的背景下，企業獲利動能可望獲得支撐。根據路透社預估，2026年全球主要市場企業獲利成長幅度可望介於9.1%～22.5%（圖七），為後續市場表現奠定良好的基礎。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖七：各國經濟成長年增率及主要指數之企業獲利年增率預估</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/20260102-7.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg、IBES Thomson Reuters，2025/11/28。註：全球股市採MSCI AC世界指數、美股採標普500指數、歐股採道瓊歐洲600指數、陸股採中國上證指數、台股採台灣加權指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">2026年展望仍偏正向，惟高基期下宜採均衡分散的資產配置</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">聯準會處在謹慎降息階段，加上AI帶動的跨產業投資需求持續發酵，可望為市場提供中期動能。目前來看，2026年多頭趨勢尚未出現明確反轉訊號，惟在風險性資產基期較高的背景下，政策變化、資金動向與市場情緒等因素，都可能為金融市場帶來較大波動。因此，建議投資人採取較為均衡且分散的資產配置策略，以提升投資組合韌性，因應快速變化的市場環境。&nbsp;<br><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">主要股債市展望及說明</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">已開發股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">美國勞動市場景氣偏弱，但整體景氣並無衰退風險，通膨預期持續向下，聯準會政策將維持降息趨勢不變。AI投資與應用加速發展、2026年企業獲利增長持續加速，中期股市多頭趨勢並未改變。近期籌碼面與技術面逐漸由過熱水準略為降溫，不過以美國為主的已開發股市評價仍略為偏高，短期內仍可能出現震盪風險。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">新興股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">新興市場股市企業獲利預估穩健增長，評價仍維持合理水準，加上資金仍未顯著流入，多頭趨勢可望持續。然而，仍須留意股市短期內可能出現的漲多回檔風險，並密切關注川普關稅政策的後續發展對新興市場的潛在影響。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">信用債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">信用利差已處歷史低位，信用債超額報酬空間有限，但美國整體景氣仍維持溫和增長，短期利差大幅擴大機率低，加上信用債殖利率大多仍位在合理水準，且Fed處在降息周期，整體環境仍有利於信用債基金因孳息有緩步走高。&nbsp;<br><br>其中，非投資等級債指數因存續期間較短、利率敏感度低，預期將有較佳的孳息效率，而新興市場債指數因存續期間較長，走勢往往較非投資等級債指數震盪，不過在當前利率風險有限且新興債指數殖利率仍高的環境下，故預期也將隨孳息而震盪向上。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">投資等級債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">美國經濟基本面變化不大，勞動市場持續降溫。川普提出降低農產品關稅等措施，搭配國際油價低迷，可望抑制通膨上行壓力。考量就業及通膨前景，預期Fed降息僅是節奏快慢問題，長線降息趨勢不變，將限制債市利率風險。目前投資等級債殖利率仍具吸引力，預期投資等級債基金總報酬仍有良好支撐。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">商品市場</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">俄烏戰爭停火可能性上升，若後續戰爭結束，俄羅斯的石油供給將增加，進一步加劇全球供過於求的壓力。不過，IEA最新月報顯示，2026年預估全球石油供給將超過需求384萬桶/日，較先前預估409萬桶/日略為縮小。反映出全球經濟活動回升，以及關稅與貿易政策不確定性有所緩解，仍可為能源價格提供支撐。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>投資新興市場應留意政治風險與經濟情勢變動之影響，波動性與風險程度可能較高。</strong>註：美國投資等級公司債係指彭博美國投資等級公司債指數、美國非投資等級公司債係指彭博美國非投資等級公司債指數、新興美元主權債係指彭博新興美元債指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。本資料僅供參考，不代表投資績效之保證。投資人申購基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不代表基金之績效，基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"隨著川普關稅政策的影響逐步淡化，加上美國經濟 K 型分化趨勢更趨明確，在 AI 資本支出與高端消費的強勁支撐下，仍將為市場提供動能；同時，聯準會預期維持謹慎降息步伐，整體而言，2026 年股市展望仍偏正向。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/view-102.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/01/02 16:08:52","startTime":"2026-01-02T16:08:52.7370000+08:00","metaTitle":"在K型分化中前行 — AI浪潮與降息循環下的2026年市場展望｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-01-02T16:17:12.7470000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/c146e83a-26a5-4aeb-aaca-445aa26532b4"}],"news01":[{"id":3052,"guid":"ff93bf7d-0584-41bc-b83f-f11937d40bc5","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"2026年初軟體股為何重挫？AI加速發展下的產業變局與投資機會","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">2026年初，美國軟體股經歷了被市場稱為「軟體末日」（Software-mageddon）的劇烈震盪，Anthropic於年初陸續推出Claude相關模型與工具，升高市場對AI可能改寫既有軟體服務商業模式的疑慮，S&amp;P軟體與服務指數在短短兩個月內下跌約 21%、市值大幅蒸發；與此同時，美國科技巨頭亦因鉅額資本支出的投資報酬率前景不明而承壓，受此影響，S&amp;P 500指數整體表現相對受限。&nbsp;<br><br>然而，在軟體股哀鴻遍野之際，硬體、能源與公用事業卻逆勢走強（圖一）。這顯示AI熱潮並非消退，而是隨著產業發展進入新階段，相關類股表現已出現更明顯分化。&nbsp;<br><br>本文將先從AI發展現況切入，說明為何AI主線並未改變，再進一步探討AI加速落地下，哪些產業環節較可能受惠、哪些類型則需審慎看待。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖一：2026年以來（截至2026/2/27），美股大盤、美股七巨頭、硬體、軟體、公用事業、原物料、能源類股累積報酬率</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260401-1.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。&nbsp;</strong>&nbsp;<br>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/2/27。&nbsp;<br>註：美股大盤採標普500指數、美股七巨頭採彭博美國七大科技巨頭指數（含Microsoft、Amazon、Nvidia、Alphabet、Tesla、Meta、Apple）、硬體類股採費城半導體指數、軟體類股採標普500軟體與服務指數、公用事業類股採標普500公用事業指數、原物料類股採標普500原物料指數、能源類股採標普500能源類指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI發展的現況與關鍵挑戰</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">從當前產業發展來看，AI熱潮並未消退，而是進入需求持續擴張、成本快速下降，且瓶頸逐步轉向基礎設施的新階段，主要可從以下三個面向觀察：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">算力投資規模持續擴大</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">儘管軟體股估值修正，但基礎設施投入未減。預估至2027財年，美國四大雲端服務供應商（CSP）的資本支出合計將突破 6,700億美元（圖二），這為硬體供應鏈提供了支撐。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">單位成本崩跌，AI模型應用門檻降低</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">AI使用成本正以指數級速度下降。相較於2023年GPT-4的綜合使用成本*約為每百萬Token 37.5美元，目前的GPT-5 mini與Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite成本已降至每百萬Token 0.6美元左右，跌幅超過95%。這雖有利於AI普及，卻也侵蝕了缺乏護城河的單一功能軟體之定價能力。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">從「算力荒」到「能源荒」</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">AI的瓶頸正由晶片供給轉向電力與電力基礎設施。國際能源署（International Energy Agency, IEA）預估全球資料中心用電量未來五年年複合成長率將達14%（圖三）。電力供給與變壓器等硬體建設週期長、供給剛性強，已成為制約AI擴張的關鍵節點。</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\">*綜合成本是根據各AI模型官方公布之輸入（提問）與輸出（回答）Token定價，並以市場研究常用之假設（輸入佔75%、輸出佔25%），進行加權估算而成。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖二：美國四大CSP企業資本支出</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260401-2.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。</strong>資料來源：Bloomberg，2026/3/11。註1：2026~2027年為Bloomberg預估。註2：年度係採用各企業之財年。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">圖三：全球AI資料中心用電量</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260401-3.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：國際能源署（International Energy Agency, IEA），2025/4。&nbsp;<br>註1：2025~2030年為IEA估計值。註2：太瓦時（Terawatt-hour, TWh）為衡量能量的單位，1太瓦時=10億度電。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI加速滲透，帶動產業重塑與獲利重分配</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">進一步從產業環節觀察，AI帶來的影響並不一致，不同商業模式與供應鏈位置，未來所面臨的機會與壓力將明顯分化（表一）。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">標準化流程型業務，較可能面臨獲利壓力</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">若企業的獲利模式主要建立在標準化、可重複的流程處理上，未來較可能面臨AI加速滲透所帶來的效率壓力。這類業務未必會被完全取代，但其營運模式預期將由大量人工執行，逐步轉向「AI自動化處理、人工決策覆核」的新架構。&nbsp;<br><br>例如客服、內容製作、基礎程式開發與財務對帳等流程型服務，未來都可能朝此方向調整；若企業無法及時完成轉型，獲利空間與評價均可能承受壓力。這也是今年以來軟體股表現疲弱的重要背景之一：市場擔心的不只是短期成長放緩，更是部分軟體與服務型業務原有的差異化與定價能力，可能在AI普及後受到侵蝕。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">掌握基礎建設與關鍵瓶頸者，較具受惠機會</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">與AI基礎建設擴張直接相關，且具技術門檻、供給限制或需求剛性的環節，受惠機會相對較高。例如，隨著AI日益深入企業流程，資安防護、身分驗證與資料合規等需求可望持續提升；在資料中心擴建與運轉帶動下，電力設備、基礎建設及銅等環節，需求能見度亦相對明確。&nbsp;<br>此外，在硬體供應鏈方面，半導體先進封裝、散熱、電源等領域，因仍具技術門檻與供應限制，中長期前景亦相對偏正向。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/check.svg\" alt=\"\">表一：AI產業分化地圖</div></div></div><div class=\"imgBig\"><img src=\"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/20260401-4.png\"></div><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。</strong>資料來源：復華投信整理，2026/3/11。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">AI主線未變，但投資焦點已由追逐題材轉向挑選贏家</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">整體而言，AI 主線並未改變，但評價邏輯已發生轉變。過去市場對AI題材普遍給予高評價的階段已逐步告一段落，如今市場更在意：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">資本支出回收能力</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">科技巨頭的高額投入能否轉化為實際營收。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><strong><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">關鍵資源掌控力</strong></div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">是否掌握電力、水冷散熱或專利封裝等硬性供給門檻。&nbsp;<br><br>考量AI產業分化與市場辨認贏家的過程中，股市表現仍可能反覆震盪，因此在資產配置上，建議以分散為原則，並適度聚焦於掌握關鍵技術、基礎設施與資源瓶頸的相關標的，以因應市場分化與波動延續。&nbsp;<br><strong>(以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">主要股債市展望及說明</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">已開發股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">美伊戰爭雖將推升能源價格，但衝突若能在短期內降溫，對經濟與物價長期結構性影響仍將有限。景氣與企業獲利增長持續，地緣政治事件或使市場短期波動加大，但不影響中期趨勢。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">新興股市</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">以東北亞為主的新興市場受惠AI ，景氣與企業獲利增長加速、評價仍相對低於已開發股市，多頭趨勢可望持續。然而，因短期漲幅較大，須留意可能出現漲多回檔壓力。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">信用債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">私募信貸不透明度、AI顛覆性及地緣政治事件紛擾等因素，使得信用利差微幅上升，但仍保持在歷史相對低位。考量到美國景氣仍溫和增長，預期整體信用利差大幅擴大的可能性不高，預期信用債指數在短線波動後仍將因孳息而緩步上漲。&nbsp;<br><br>其中，非投資等級債指數因存續期間較短、利率敏感度低，預期將有較佳的孳息效率，而新興市場債指數因存續期間較長，走勢往往較非投資等級債指數震盪，不過在當前利率風險有限且新興債指數殖利率仍高的環境下，故預期也將隨孳息而震盪向上。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">投資等級債</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">關稅影響消退及勞動需求放緩有利通膨降溫，但美伊戰爭又為前景添增不確定性，Fed短期內或將陷入觀望，不過根據過往經驗，地緣政治事件往往只會帶來短期波動、不易扭轉整體經濟及金融市場趨勢，加上目前投資等級債指數殖利率約在4~5%，殖利率將為總報酬提供支撐。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title flex flex-row-md flex-column-sm align-items-start\"><div class=\"indent-content-6-title-intro text-9-medium color-white\">商品市場</div></div><div class=\"indent-content-6-detail text-9-light\">儘管美國與以色列轟炸伊朗，帶動國際油價短期大幅上漲，但市場多認為，若伊朗封鎖荷姆茲海峽，亦可能衝擊其外匯收入，因此是否具備長期封鎖條件仍有待觀察。&nbsp;<br><br>從期貨市場來看，目前中長天期油價漲幅明顯低於短天期，顯示市場對此次衝突可能造成的長期能源供給衝擊仍持較審慎看法。若後續戰事未進一步擴大，原物料價格走勢仍可能以震盪整理為主。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-content-13 flex flex-column\"><p class=\"unindent-content text-10-light\"><strong>投資新興市場應留意政治風險與經濟情勢變動之影響，波動性與風險程度可能較高。</strong>註：美國投資等級公司債係指彭博美國投資等級公司債指數、美國非投資等級公司債係指彭博美國非投資等級公司債指數、新興美元主權債係指彭博新興美元債指數。</p></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>以上資料為舉例說明，不代表未來實際績效。個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。本資料僅供參考，不代表投資績效之保證。投資人申購基金係持有基金受益憑證，而非本文提及之投資資產或標的。本文提及之經濟走勢預測不代表基金之績效，基金投資風險請詳閱基金公開說明書。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"過去市場對AI題材普遍給予高評價的時期已逐漸結束，如今投資人更關注的是，科技巨頭的大規模投入能否轉化為實際營收，以及企業是否掌握關鍵資源與技術。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202604/view-97.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/04/02 09:30:42","startTime":"2026-04-02T09:30:34.2000000+08:00","metaTitle":"2026年初軟體股為何重挫？AI加速發展下的產業變局與投資機會｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-04-02T09:32:49.5130000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/ff93bf7d-0584-41bc-b83f-f11937d40bc5"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/101.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/101.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/101.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=101","url2":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&Fund=101","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、計算本基金成立至今之淨值波動度，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1084,"updateTime":"2023-06-01T07:40:09.1870000+08:00","guid":"ddb27275-ec40-426a-b535-e904e5291f7e","fundID":"109","twNameFull":"復華美元非投資等級債券指數基金-美元","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh 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lang=\"EN-US\"> = </span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購當日淨值</span><span lang=\"EN-US\"> x (1 + </span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購交易費率</span><span lang=\"EN-US\">)</span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">，申購價格以四捨五入方式計算至小數點第四位，實際申購單位數以經理公司帳載為憑。</span></p><p><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</span></p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"I34803US","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","renameArticle":"/services/news_list/content/news/c3a65ca8-b020-4df2-89ac-aeed0ccda836","metaTitle":"復華美元非投資等級債券指數基金-美元 ｜ 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lang=\"EN-US\"> = </span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購當日淨值</span><span lang=\"EN-US\"> x (1 + </span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購交易費率</span><span lang=\"EN-US\">)</span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">，申購價格以四捨五入方式計算至小數點第四位，實際申購單位數以經理公司帳載為憑。</span></p><p><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</span></p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"I34803US","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","renameArticle":"/services/news_list/content/news/c3a65ca8-b020-4df2-89ac-aeed0ccda836","metaTitle":"復華美元非投資等級債券指數基金-新臺幣A ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"4463666641.000000","roi3m":"1.13%","roi6m":"5.91%","roi1y":"2.45%","roi2y":"12.66%","roi3y":"28.59%","roiLaunch":"25.50%","roiY2D":"1.13%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"許忠成","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[],"news01":[],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/107.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/107.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/107.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=107","url2":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&Fund=107","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、計算本基金成立至今之淨值波動度，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1085,"updateTime":"2023-06-01T07:39:42.9600000+08:00","guid":"7ec7e4af-dec4-4a5b-8105-b86a865c3d53","fundID":"108","twNameFull":"復華美元非投資等級債券指數基金-新臺幣B","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa USD High Yield Bond Index Fund-TWD B","ec002":"(基金之配息來源可能為本金）","twName":"美元非投資等級債券指數新臺幣B","pnav":"10.09","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"0.01","changeRange":"0.10%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li>主要投資於美元計價非投資等級公司債券，以期獲得較高之債券收益率，並排除信用評等未達Caa3級之較高違約風險債券。</li></ul><ul><li>追蹤指數操作，資訊相對透明。</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2019/09/04","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"永豐商業銀行","ec009":"RR3","ec012":"0.70%","ec013":"0.08%~0.16%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資指數型","ec020_sort":5091,"ec022":"月配","ec024":"全球","ec026":"指數型","ec027":"0.30%","ec028":"主要為信用評等在Ba1級以下至Caa3級以上之美元計價公司債券，單一債券最小流通在外面額須達7.5億美元以上，且單一產業占指數權重不超過10%。","ec029":"基金成立日起：申購當日淨值x (1+申購交易費率)。\r\n申購價格以四捨五入方式計算至小數點第四位，實際申購單位數以經理公司帳載為憑。","ec030":"T+6日","ec036":"永豐商業銀行營業部","ec037":"復華美元非投資等級債券指數基金專戶","ec038":"彭博美元Caa以上高收益債券流動指數","ec039":"","ec040":"每月底","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":1,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購價格</span><span lang=\"EN-US\"> = </span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購當日淨值</span><span lang=\"EN-US\"> x (1 + </span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購交易費率</span><span lang=\"EN-US\">)</span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">，申購價格以四捨五入方式計算至小數點第四位，實際申購單位數以經理公司帳載為憑。</span></p><p><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</span></p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p><p>表格所示為含息報酬率。走勢圖為不含息之績效。</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"<p>註1：除透過基金銷售機構以自己名義為投資人申購或買回本基金、壽險業者之投資型保單申購或買回本基金或其他經經理公司同意者外，分配之給付金額未達新台幣1,000元時，受益人同意經理公司以該筆分配金額再申購本基金受益權單位。</p><p>註2：配息率並非等於基金報酬率，於獲配息時，宜一併注意基金淨值之變動。</p><p>註3：收益分配紀錄查詢區間不可超過三年。</p><p>註4：上述配息組成項目表中，可分配淨利益為信託契約所載之可分配收益扣除基金應負擔相關成本費用。本基金配息前未先完全扣除應負擔之相關費用，故配息可能涉及本金。</p>","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":0,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"I34803US","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","renameArticle":"/services/news_list/content/news/c3a65ca8-b020-4df2-89ac-aeed0ccda836","metaTitle":"復華美元非投資等級債券指數基金-新臺幣B ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","f_DisEqual":"N","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":0,"fundSize_TWD":"24259853.000000","roi3m":"1.15%","roi6m":"5.90%","roi1y":"2.36%","roi2y":"12.54%","roi3y":"28.61%","roiLaunch":"25.47%","roiY2D":"1.15%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"2026/04/08","disType":"月配","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"許忠成","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[],"news01":[],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/108.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/108.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/108.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=108","url2":"","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、計算本基金成立至今之淨值波動度，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1088,"updateTime":"2023-03-21T16:39:06.6700000+08:00","guid":"51b37a46-5fbe-4a33-93ea-acd835c3f79c","fundID":"110","twNameFull":"復華美國標普500低波動指數基金","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa US S&P 500 Low Volatility Index Fund","ec002":"","twName":"美國標普500低波動指數","pnav":"14.37","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"0.11","changeRange":"0.77%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li>本基金追蹤標普500低波動指數，成分證券是從標普500指數中選出股價波動度較低的100檔美國股票，參與美國股市收益機會並控制波動風險</li><li>追蹤指數操作，資訊相對透明</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2020/02/26","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"台新國際商業銀行","ec009":"RR4","ec012":"0.60%","ec013":"0.08%~0.16%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資指數型","ec020_sort":5091,"ec022":"","ec024":"美國","ec026":"指數型","ec027":"0.17%","ec028":"美國標普500指數之成分證券中，選出過去1年股價波動度較低的100檔股票，且股價波動度越低者佔指數之權重越高。","ec029":"基金成立日起：申購當日淨值x (1+申購交易費率)。\r\n申購價格以四捨五入方式計算至小數點第四位，實際申購單位數以經理公司帳載為憑。","ec030":"T+4日","ec036":"台新國際商業銀行敦南分行","ec037":"復華美國標普500低波動指數基金專戶","ec038":"標普500低波動指數","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p>申購價格 = 申購當日淨值 x (1 + 申購交易費率)，申購價格以四捨五入方式計算至小數點第四位，實際申購單位數以經理公司帳載為憑。</p><p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"SP5LVI","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":1,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華美國標普500低波動指數基金 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"存基金","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"504672288.000000","roi3m":"4.06%","roi6m":"4.75%","roi1y":"-4.14%","roi2y":"12.65%","roi3y":"27.69%","roiLaunch":"43.40%","roiY2D":"4.06%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"吳允翔","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[{"id":2985,"guid":"c6dd5652-8317-4354-a4a7-4f47353e3a60","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"格陵蘭爭議緩解，股市延續上升軌道","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市隨格陵蘭問題爭議變化波動，先跌後漲。美國總統川普在週三表示已與北約達成格陵蘭框架協議，美國將參與礦產開發權，不會以武力解決，且取消2月將對於歐洲課徵的新關稅措施，市場風險情緒明顯改善、股市反彈回揚。<br><br>不過地緣政治擔憂未完全解除，歐洲各國減持美元資產議題延續，國際美元走弱、金價續創新高。油價則因美國再度對伊朗實施制裁，且川普週五表示已派艦隊前往中東，上週反彈上揚。<br><br>週五雖Intel因受記憶體價格上揚、與產能受限，使2025年第一季業績展望不如預期股價重挫17%，但因屬公司個別因素，並未影響其他大型科技股及輝達與台積電在內的主要半導體公司股價上揚。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong><br><br>總計一週(2026/1/19 ~ 2026/1/23)美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別變化-0.5%、+0.4%、-0.1%、+1.8%，台股一週上漲1.8%以31,961點收盤。美國10年期公債殖利率一週持平於4.24%，美元指數週跌1.9%至97.52，油價(WTI)則上漲2.7%至每桶61.07美元。<br><br>主要影響股市因素包括：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">格陵蘭問題緩解、股市揚升，但金價持續強勢</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">川普「買下格陵蘭」議題，一度引發歐、美關係緊張，川普再以關稅威脅欲取得格陵蘭控制權，主要目的著眼於格陵蘭礦產資源以及戰略位置地位。<br><br>雖然美國與北約達成「格陵蘭框架協議」，取得未來參與礦產開發權利，並取消對歐洲新關稅計劃，股市風險情緒改善後回穩，不過此問題再度引發地緣政治風險，以及歐洲國家可能減持美元資產、增加黃金需求，使得黃金價格持續上揚，2026年以來截至1/22，黃金價格已再上漲14.3%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國經濟穩定、日債殖利率彈升，推升美債殖利率</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">近期美國公債殖利率在地緣政治關係緊張下仍然上揚，主要反應：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">美國經濟穩定、Fed不急於再降息</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國經濟在股市上揚、美國聯準會(Fed)降息循環及AI熱潮下維持擴張狀態下，2025年第三季GDP成長率上修至4.4%(原4.3%)優於預期，週初請失業救濟金人數維持於20萬人的低檔水準，1月綜合PMI微增至52.8(前月52.7)，顯示美國經濟仍維持穩定狀態。<br><br>雖然物價年增速仍漸放緩，但經濟仍穩定下Fed不急於再降息，利率期貨顯示Fed可能於2026年中才會再度降息。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">日本寬鬆財政、日債殖利率揚升</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">日本首相高市早苗提前國會改選，並將暫時取消消費稅措施，使得對日本財政赤字擔憂，影響日本10年期公債殖利率走升，自2026年以來彈升18個基本點(bps)，亦帶動了美債殖利率的揚升。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">股市維持多頭下的資金匯集投資主題</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>電力、上游關鍵原物料、AI技術領先龍頭；國防、低軌衛星、及傳產外銷績優公司。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">股市仍受惠AI及企業獲利成長維持多頭趨勢</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在AI趨勢、企業獲利成長、Fed可望維持降息循環下，股市維持震盪走升的多頭趨勢。不過近期公債殖利率的彈升，亦影響了部分先前漲多的AI相關股價波動加大的震盪表現。<br><br>而在AI趨勢的浪潮發展下，除了大型科技公司持續資本支出大幅度上升外，包括台積電在內整體的AI供應鏈公司，皆呈現大量資本支出上升的現象。而在AI需求呈指數級增加、產能僅以線性增加的情況下，出現諸多產品長期供不應求的相關公司的投資機會。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">股市資金匯集的主要投資主題</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>A.AI投資主題</strong><br>a.電力相關基礎設施提供的公司，以及電源規格提升的商機。<br>b.上游關鍵原物料及零組件大幅度的供需缺口，使產品價格持續上漲的商機。<br>c.未來仍持續受惠AI發展快速成長、技術領先，且獲利成長性仍佳的龍頭公司。<br><br><strong>B.非AI投資主題</strong><br>a.地緣政治風險持續、各國國防支出增加的商機。<br>b.今年Space-X將上市所帶動的低軌衛星的商機。<br>c.台美關稅協議達成，傳產外銷美國的公司關稅稅率，由25%以上降至15%，再加匯率維持穩定，績優外銷公司獲利走出谷底的投資機會。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"美國經濟仍維持穩定狀態，雖然物價年增速仍漸放緩，但經濟仍穩定下Fed不急於再降息，利率期貨顯示Fed可能於2026年中才會再度降息。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/view-14.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/01/26 09:23:08","startTime":"2026-01-26T09:23:08.8770000+08:00","metaTitle":"格陵蘭爭議緩解，股市延續上升軌道｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-01-30T18:03:59.2670000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/c6dd5652-8317-4354-a4a7-4f47353e3a60"},{"id":2955,"guid":"55633c30-f74c-408a-b84c-965fc0679ad2","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"FED降息循環將延續、經濟成長動能優於預期，股市震盪走升","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市持續震盪走高，雖然處於歐美聖誕假期階段，但在前週美國公布11月份通膨數據增速低於預期，確保美國聯準會(FED)維持降息循環，股市風險情緒轉穩並延續上揚走勢，指數也重回歷史新高水準。尤其AI具實質需求及業績支撐，AI泡沫疑慮降低，AI族群股價再轉強，帶動股市信心回復。&nbsp;<br><br>而延遲公布的2025年第三季美國經濟成長年增率達4.3%，在消費及投資成長支撐下優於預期，週初請失業救濟金人數21.4萬人，亦仍維持穩定且低於預期，提振投資人信心，並支撐企業獲利成長動能之維持。<br><br>總計一週(2025/12/22~12/26)美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別上漲1.2%、1.4%、1.2%、2.0%，台股一週上漲3.1%以28,556點收盤。美國10年期公債殖利率一週下跌2個基本點(bps,1個基本點=0.01%)至4.14%，美元指數走低0.7%至98.02，油價(WTI)則一週小漲0.3%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">三大因素持續支撐2026年股市正向發展</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">支撐2026年股市正向展望的三大因素延續，在此三大因素未改變前，並不會改變股市長多趨勢。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">AI持續樂觀發展，且尚處發展早期階段</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">雖然部分投資人開始擔憂AI是否出現泡沫的疑慮，但從多方面觀察，目前AI仍僅處於發展初期，算力建置投資是否過剩，以及評價是否過高之疑慮，皆尚言之過早。主要因素包括：<br><br>(1) AI使用人數仍呈指數級上升階段；<br>(2) 企業AI使用滲透率亦仍處初期持續上升階段；<br>(3) AI算力需求急速上升，美國資料中心空置率僅有2%的低水準；<br>(4) 大型科技公司龐大AI投資，具有本業強大營運模式及營運現金流支撐，在高進入障礙、龐大客戶基礎支撐下，企業獲利仍將維持高成長動能；<br>(5) 較高獲利成長動能支撐較高評價，且評價亦仍處合理水準；<br>(6) 從過往歷史經驗，各種金融泡沫破裂並不會發生在FED降息循環中發生。就算AI具有泡沫成分，亦僅在形成泡沫階段，而非泡沫階段中後期，2026年發生AI泡沫破裂的可能性極低。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">企業獲利維持雙位數成長</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在AI樂觀發展、非AI產業低比較基期、通膨增速降低、FED降息循環，以及消費動能穩定之下，2026年美股及台股企業獲利成長預估分別可達14.8%、22.6% (IBES Thomson Reuters，2025/12/19。)，高企業獲利成長仍可維持股市上漲動能及合理評價，為股市多頭趨勢之基石。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\">FED降息循環延續</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在美國就業市場及通膨增速同步降溫之下，加上2026年5月新的FED主席就任，FED降息循環可望延續。而在經濟溫和成長、FED降息循環環境下，仍是對股市較有利的環境，並有助股市評價維持或進一步提升。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">2026年股市可能風險因素觀察</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>產業發展失衡、就業市場穩定度、AI泡沫形成、對FED政策信任度、資金流動穩定性及地緣政治風險。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-container\"><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>AI與非AI產業不均衡發展，FED降息是否可止住就業市場惡化趨勢，可能影響未來經濟穩定度。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>FED降息可能進一步推升AI股票及股市評價，泡沫出現可能性仍存，目前尚屬泡沫形成階段，若FED開始升息循環再擔憂泡沫破裂風險。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/3.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>新任FED主席政策態度，是否產生FED政策信任風險，致使公債殖利率彈升，影響股市評價。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/4.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>美國降息、日本升息，是否導致日圓波動度上升，引發資金流動性風險。</div></div><div class=\"indent-content indent-content-9 flex align-items-start text-9-light\"><p><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/5.svg\" alt=\"\"></p><div>難測的地緣政治風險。</div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"股市風險情緒轉穩並延續上揚走勢，指數也重回歷史新高水準。尤其AI具實質需求及業績支撐，帶動股市信心回復。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202512/view-86.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2025/12/29 09:24:35","startTime":"2025-12-29T09:24:35.9400000+08:00","metaTitle":"FED降息循環將延續、經濟成長動能優於預期，股市震盪走升｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2025-12-29T09:29:55.7970000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/55633c30-f74c-408a-b84c-965fc0679ad2"}],"news01":[{"id":2985,"guid":"c6dd5652-8317-4354-a4a7-4f47353e3a60","articleCategory":"投資觀點","title":"格陵蘭爭議緩解，股市延續上升軌道","contents":"<p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">上週股市隨格陵蘭問題爭議變化波動，先跌後漲。美國總統川普在週三表示已與北約達成格陵蘭框架協議，美國將參與礦產開發權，不會以武力解決，且取消2月將對於歐洲課徵的新關稅措施，市場風險情緒明顯改善、股市反彈回揚。<br><br>不過地緣政治擔憂未完全解除，歐洲各國減持美元資產議題延續，國際美元走弱、金價續創新高。油價則因美國再度對伊朗實施制裁，且川普週五表示已派艦隊前往中東，上週反彈上揚。<br><br>週五雖Intel因受記憶體價格上揚、與產能受限，使2025年第一季業績展望不如預期股價重挫17%，但因屬公司個別因素，並未影響其他大型科技股及輝達與台積電在內的主要半導體公司股價上揚。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong><br><br>總計一週(2026/1/19 ~ 2026/1/23)美股道瓊、S&amp;P500、Nasdaq、費城半導體指數分別變化-0.5%、+0.4%、-0.1%、+1.8%，台股一週上漲1.8%以31,961點收盤。美國10年期公債殖利率一週持平於4.24%，美元指數週跌1.9%至97.52，油價(WTI)則上漲2.7%至每桶61.07美元。<br><br>主要影響股市因素包括：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">格陵蘭問題緩解、股市揚升，但金價持續強勢</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">川普「買下格陵蘭」議題，一度引發歐、美關係緊張，川普再以關稅威脅欲取得格陵蘭控制權，主要目的著眼於格陵蘭礦產資源以及戰略位置地位。<br><br>雖然美國與北約達成「格陵蘭框架協議」，取得未來參與礦產開發權利，並取消對歐洲新關稅計劃，股市風險情緒改善後回穩，不過此問題再度引發地緣政治風險，以及歐洲國家可能減持美元資產、增加黃金需求，使得黃金價格持續上揚，2026年以來截至1/22，黃金價格已再上漲14.3%。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">美國經濟穩定、日債殖利率彈升，推升美債殖利率</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">近期美國公債殖利率在地緣政治關係緊張下仍然上揚，主要反應：</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">美國經濟穩定、Fed不急於再降息</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">美國經濟在股市上揚、美國聯準會(Fed)降息循環及AI熱潮下維持擴張狀態下，2025年第三季GDP成長率上修至4.4%(原4.3%)優於預期，週初請失業救濟金人數維持於20萬人的低檔水準，1月綜合PMI微增至52.8(前月52.7)，顯示美國經濟仍維持穩定狀態。<br><br>雖然物價年增速仍漸放緩，但經濟仍穩定下Fed不急於再降息，利率期貨顯示Fed可能於2026年中才會再度降息。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">日本寬鬆財政、日債殖利率揚升</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">日本首相高市早苗提前國會改選，並將暫時取消消費稅措施，使得對日本財政赤字擔憂，影響日本10年期公債殖利率走升，自2026年以來彈升18個基本點(bps)，亦帶動了美債殖利率的揚升。</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"indent-content-1 flex align-items-center\"><div class=\"unindent-content-1-text text-6-medium mr-3 color-red-500\">股市維持多頭下的資金匯集投資主題</div></div><p>&nbsp;</p><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>電力、上游關鍵原物料、AI技術領先龍頭；國防、低軌衛星、及傳產外銷績優公司。</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/1.svg\" alt=\"\">股市仍受惠AI及企業獲利成長維持多頭趨勢</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\">在AI趨勢、企業獲利成長、Fed可望維持降息循環下，股市維持震盪走升的多頭趨勢。不過近期公債殖利率的彈升，亦影響了部分先前漲多的AI相關股價波動加大的震盪表現。<br><br>而在AI趨勢的浪潮發展下，除了大型科技公司持續資本支出大幅度上升外，包括台積電在內整體的AI供應鏈公司，皆呈現大量資本支出上升的現象。而在AI需求呈指數級增加、產能僅以線性增加的情況下，出現諸多產品長期供不應求的相關公司的投資機會。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"unindent-container\"><div class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-10 flex flex-column\"><div class=\"unindent-content-10-title flex align-items-start text-9-medium\"><img src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/solid/black/2.svg\" alt=\"\">股市資金匯集的主要投資主題</div></div></div><p class=\"unindent-content unindent-content-8 text-9-light\"><strong>A.AI投資主題</strong><br>a.電力相關基礎設施提供的公司，以及電源規格提升的商機。<br>b.上游關鍵原物料及零組件大幅度的供需缺口，使產品價格持續上漲的商機。<br>c.未來仍持續受惠AI發展快速成長、技術領先，且獲利成長性仍佳的龍頭公司。<br><br><strong>B.非AI投資主題</strong><br>a.地緣政治風險持續、各國國防支出增加的商機。<br>b.今年Space-X將上市所帶動的低軌衛星的商機。<br>c.台美關稅協議達成，傳產外銷美國的公司關稅稅率，由25%以上降至15%，再加匯率維持穩定，績優外銷公司獲利走出谷底的投資機會。<br><strong>(個股與相關數據資料僅供說明之用，不代表投資決策之建議。)</strong></p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p><div class=\"flex justify-center flex-row-md flex-column-sm cta-6-container\"><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/buy.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我要母子基金循環投資</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW11&amp;fund=25\" target=\"_blank\">網路新增金複合，精選基金立享0</a></div></div><div class=\"cta cta-6 relative\"><div class=\"cta-6-deco flex absolute align-items-center\"><img class=\"mr-1\" src=\"/assets/icon-sobo/24x24/line/black/headphone.svg\" alt=\"\"> <span class=\"mt-0 text-9-light lh-14\">我還不是復華客戶</span></div><div class=\"mt-0 text-9-medium lh-18 color-red-500 text-center\"><a href=\"https://www.fhtrust.com.tw/account/\" target=\"_blank\">立即開戶，再拿網路紅利</a></div></div></div><p>&nbsp;</p>","summary":"美國經濟仍維持穩定狀態，雖然物價年增速仍漸放緩，但經濟仍穩定下Fed不急於再降息，利率期貨顯示Fed可能於2026年中才會再度降息。","thumb":"/UploadFile/Article.pic/202601/view-14.png","sortValue":0,"isListTop":"0","isIndexTop":"0","tag":"股票,債券,全球","postTime":"2026/01/26 09:23:08","startTime":"2026-01-26T09:23:08.8770000+08:00","metaTitle":"格陵蘭爭議緩解，股市延續上升軌道｜理財觀念，復華投信-享退休找復華","isDeleted":0,"isEnabled":1,"isAudit":1,"updateTime":"2026-01-30T18:03:59.2670000+08:00","canEdit":false,"isDividend":0,"categoryGuid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","category":{"id":20968,"guid":"57892396-1e11-45c8-8bbc-99d87f02f842","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"2bae758f-e180-4d87-a83a-e0cb203d4904","route":"/insights_list/article_list/views","routeSource":"/insights_list/article_list.html","route01":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/{guid}","route01Source":"/insights_list/content_insights.html","views":"FrontD","isEnabled":1,"show":1,"showm":1,"description":"復華觀點","metaTitle":"投資觀點｜復華投信","metaDescription":"深入淺出解析全球股、債市場及產業訊息，幫您掌握市場瞬息萬變的最新消息，取得最新的投資趨勢！","pic":"/UploadFile/Category.pic/202211/6360f39b-1b79-4902-a5c4-ba2c52d7fd85B.insights.jpg","updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:17:45.9770000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"-","depth":1,"display":false,"categoryChild":[],"warning":"全站警語-公司資訊"},"articleCategorys":{"id":12356,"guid":"f81a9381-6d68-4179-864c-a461259fbcce","name":"投資觀點","parentGuid":"4cb37633-5c71-46d3-bf8a-83be30aa210c","isEnabled":1,"updateTime":"2026-03-09T10:18:28.7700000+08:00","updateIP":"192.168.13.75","updateAccount":"5921d61e-8599-4587-b04b-5c8ceef42790","depthString":"","depth":0,"display":false,"categoryChild":[]},"aUrl":"/insights_list/article_list/content/views/c6dd5652-8317-4354-a4a7-4f47353e3a60"}],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/110.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/110.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/110.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=110","url2":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&Fund=110","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1028,"updateTime":"2024-09-04T14:00:20.9070000+08:00","guid":"47a55232-9b58-4a3e-bd01-52169624f8ef","fundID":"113","twNameFull":"復華新興市場3年期以上美元主權及類主權債券指數基金-美元","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa Emerging Market 3+ Years USD Sovereign and Quasi-Sovereign Bond Index Fund-USD","ec002":"(本基金有相當比重投資於非投資等級之高風險債券)","twName":"新興市場主權及類主權債美元","pnav":"10.45","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"-0.02","changeRange":"-0.19%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">本基金追蹤彭博新興市場3年期以上美元主權及類主權債券指數，成分證券為新興市場之美元計價債券，涵蓋主權及類主權債券，參與新興市場債較高之債息收益</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">追蹤指數操作，資訊相對透明</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2020/02/26","ec006":"美元","ec010":"台新國際商業銀行","ec009":"RR3","ec012":"0.60%","ec013":"0.08%~0.16%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資指數型","ec020_sort":5091,"ec022":"","ec024":"新興市場","ec026":"指數型","ec027":"0.30%","ec028":"到期日距今3年以上之新興市場美元計價債券，涵蓋主權債及類主權債，債券發行人所屬國家之主權信用評等為B3級以上，單一債券最小流通在外面額須達5億美元以上。","ec029":"基金成立日起：申購當日淨值x (1+申購交易費率)。\r\n申購價格以四捨五入方式計算至小數點第四位，實際申購單位數以經理公司帳載為憑。","ec030":"T+6日","ec036":"台新國際商業銀行敦南分行","ec037":"復華新興市場3年期以上美元主權及類主權債券指數基金專戶","ec038":"彭博新興市場3年期以上美元主權及類主權債券指數","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購價格</span><span lang=\"EN-US\"> = </span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購當日淨值</span><span lang=\"EN-US\"> x (1 + </span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購交易費率</span><span lang=\"EN-US\">)</span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">，申購價格以四捨五入方式計算至小數點第四位，實際申購單位數以經理公司帳載為憑。</span></p><p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示。</p><p>漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</p>","ec407":"","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"I35212US","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華新興市場3年期以上美元主權及類主權債券指數基金-美元 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":0,"fundSize_TWD":"267416849.224200","roi3m":"-2.01%","roi6m":"-0.87%","roi1y":"6.35%","roi2y":"10.85%","roi3y":"16.00%","roiLaunch":"2.20%","roiY2D":"-2.01%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"許忠成","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[],"news01":[],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/113.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/113.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/113.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"","url2":"","file01":"/docupload/download/help/K1.pdf"},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"},{"id":1029,"updateTime":"2024-09-04T14:01:28.4000000+08:00","guid":"e5d1fe73-8445-4e41-bc7b-2644b4e127b1","fundID":"112","twNameFull":"復華新興市場3年期以上美元主權及類主權債券指數基金-新臺幣","sortValue":0,"enName":"Fuh Hwa Emerging Market 3+ Years USD Sovereign and Quasi-Sovereign Bond Index Fund-TWD","ec002":"(本基金有相當比重投資於非投資等級之高風險債券)","twName":"新興市場主權及類主權債新臺幣","pnav":"10.82","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"0.01","changeRange":"0.09%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">本基金追蹤彭博新興市場3年期以上美元主權及類主權債券指數，成分證券為新興市場之美元計價債券，涵蓋主權及類主權債券，參與新興市場債較高之債息收益</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">追蹤指數操作，資訊相對透明</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2020/02/26","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"台新國際商業銀行","ec009":"RR3","ec012":"0.60%","ec013":"0.08%~0.16%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資指數型","ec020_sort":5091,"ec022":"","ec024":"新興市場","ec026":"指數型","ec027":"0.30%","ec028":"到期日距今3年以上之新興市場美元計價債券，涵蓋主權債及類主權債，債券發行人所屬國家之主權信用評等為B3級以上，單一債券最小流通在外面額須達5億美元以上。","ec029":"基金成立日起：申購當日淨值x (1+申購交易費率)。\r\n申購價格以四捨五入方式計算至小數點第四位，實際申購單位數以經理公司帳載為憑。","ec030":"T+6日","ec036":"台新國際商業銀行敦南分行","ec037":"復華新興市場3年期以上美元主權及類主權債券指數基金專戶","ec038":"彭博新興市場3年期以上美元主權及類主權債券指數","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購價格</span><span lang=\"EN-US\"> = </span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購當日淨值</span><span lang=\"EN-US\"> x (1 + </span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購交易費率</span><span lang=\"EN-US\">)</span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">，申購價格以四捨五入方式計算至小數點第四位，實際申購單位數以經理公司帳載為憑。</span></p><p><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</span></p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"I35212US","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華新興市場3年期以上美元主權及類主權債券指數基金-新臺幣 ｜ 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(1+申購交易費率)。\r\n申購價格以四捨五入方式計算至小數點第四位，實際申購單位數以經理公司帳載為憑。","ec030":"T+6日","ec036":"台新國際商業銀行敦南分行","ec037":"復華新興亞洲3至10年期美元債券指數基金專戶","ec038":"彭博新興亞洲3至10年期美元債券指數","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購價格</span><span lang=\"EN-US\"> = </span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購當日淨值</span><span lang=\"EN-US\"> x (1 + </span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購交易費率</span><span lang=\"EN-US\">)</span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">，申購價格以四捨五入方式計算至小數點第四位，實際申購單位數以經理公司帳載為憑。</span></p><p><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</span></p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":0,"ec170":0,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"I35211US","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華新興亞洲3至10年期美元債券指數基金-美元 ｜ 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Hwa Emerging Market Asia 3-10 Years USD Bond Index Fund-TWD","ec002":"(本基金有相當比重投資於非投資等級之高風險債券)","twName":"新興亞洲3至10年美元債新臺幣","pnav":"10.38","navDate":"2026/04/28","change":"0.01","changeRange":"0.10%","qnav_l":2,"contents":"<ul style=\"list-style-type:disc;\"><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">本基金追蹤彭博新興亞洲3至10年期美元債券指數，成分證券為新興市場亞洲地區之美元計價債券，涵蓋主權、類主權及公司債券，參與亞洲債券市場之收益機會</li><li style=\"list-style-type:disc;\">追蹤指數操作，資訊相對透明</li></ul>","ec001":1,"ec005":"2020/02/26","ec006":"新臺幣","ec010":"台新國際商業銀行","ec009":"RR3","ec012":"0.60%","ec013":"0.08%~0.16%","ec014":"3.00%(含)以下","ec020":"跨國投資指數型","ec020_sort":5091,"ec022":"","ec024":"新興市場","ec026":"指數型","ec027":"0.30%","ec028":"到期日距今3至10年之新興市場亞洲地區美元計價債券，涵蓋主權債、類主權債及公司債，債券信用評等為B3級以上，單一債券最小流通在外面額須達5億美元以上。","ec029":"基金成立日起：申購當日淨值x (1+申購交易費率)。\r\n申購價格以四捨五入方式計算至小數點第四位，實際申購單位數以經理公司帳載為憑。","ec030":"T+6日","ec036":"台新國際商業銀行敦南分行","ec037":"復華新興亞洲3至10年期美元債券指數基金專戶","ec038":"彭博新興亞洲3至10年期美元債券指數","ec039":"","ec193":"依公開說明書規定","ec312":2,"ec314":0,"ec404":"","ec405":"<p><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購價格</span><span lang=\"EN-US\"> = </span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購當日淨值</span><span lang=\"EN-US\"> x (1 + </span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">申購交易費率</span><span lang=\"EN-US\">)</span><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">，申購價格以四捨五入方式計算至小數點第四位，實際申購單位數以經理公司帳載為憑。</span></p><p><span style=\"font-family:&quot;微軟正黑體&quot;,sans-serif;mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri;mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;\">漲跌幅以基金淨值計算，配息基金不含息。</span></p>","ec407":"<p>基金績效以該基金計價幣別表示</p>","ec408":"<p>本基金每月底持有前十大標的之種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，及每季底（3、6、9、12月）持有單一標的金額占基金淨資產價值達百分之一之標的種類、名稱及占基金淨資產價值之比例等，請至投信投顧公會網站(http://www.sitca.org.tw/)查詢。</p><p>資料更新：每月第10個營業日、每季底次月第10個營業日</p>","ec409":"","ec410":"","ec100":1,"ec170":1,"etf002":"—","etf003":"—","etf005":"I35211US","isProspectusBrief":"Y","isoffer":0,"isRename":"0","metaTitle":"復華新興亞洲3至10年期美元債券指數基金-新臺幣 ｜ 復華投信","metaDescription":"復華投信基金產品總覽，基金淨值、漲跌資訊。復華投信基金投資產品線完整，資產規模龐大，多次獲得知名獎項肯定，展現全方位的投資研究實力。復華投信長期深耕科技產業研究，從台灣、亞太到全球市場，發掘最具潛力的投資標的。","issueUnit":"0.0000","offer":"","marketing":"","tag":"","isTrade":1,"fundSize_TWD":"1298716999.000000","roi3m":"1.07%","roi6m":"5.15%","roi1y":"0.87%","roi2y":"10.50%","roi3y":"18.68%","roiLaunch":"4.20%","roiY2D":"1.07%","ddate":"2026/03/31","disRate":"—","periodRoi":"—","divDate":"—","value01":"0","value02":"0","value03":"0","value04":"0","manager":[{"name":"劉昌祚","isShow":0,"experience":""}],"manager01":[],"news":[],"news01":[],"pdf":[{"name":"基金月報","url":"/docUpload/FundMonRPT/115.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus/115.pdf","urlType":"_blank"},{"name":"公開說明書(簡)式","url":"/docUpload/Prospectus_Brief/115.pdf","urlType":"_blank"}],"url":{"url1":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FH01&Fund=115","url2":"https://itrade.fhtrust.com.tw/clientservice.asp?TN=FHW17&Fund=115","file01":""},"ec413":"<p>綜合評估本基金投資組合及風險、以計算過去5年之淨值波動度為原則，參考「中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會基金風險報酬等級分類標準」並與同類型基金淨值波動度比較，訂定本基金之風險報酬等級。風險報酬等級由低至高，區分為「RR1、RR2、RR3、RR4、RR5」五個風險報酬等級。該分類標準係計算過去5年基金淨值波動度標準差，以標準差區間予以分類等級；此等級分類係基於一般市場狀況反映市場價格波動風險，無法涵蓋所有風險(如：基金計價幣別匯率風險、投資標的產業風險、信用風險、利率風險、流動性風險等)，不宜作為投資唯一依據，投資人仍應注意所投資基金個別的風險，及斟酌個人風險承擔能力及資金可運用期間之長短後投資。更多基金評估之相關資料(如年化標準差、Alpha、Beta及Sharpe值等)可至中華民國證券投資信託暨顧問商業同業公會網站之「基金績效及評估指標查詢專區」(https://www.sitca.org.tw/index_pc.aspx)查詢。</p>","nclass_public":"","isETFindex":0,"fundStatus":"2","isTradeOff":0,"isCustomIndex":0,"isETFIndexRebalance":0,"isETFRule":0,"isETFRegulation":0,"first_sell_date":"","ver":"fundList.20260430120029904.json"}],"ec026":[{"name":"股票型"},{"name":"貨幣市場型"},{"name":"組合型"},{"name":"債券型"},{"name":"指數型"},{"name":"平衡型"},{"name":"證券化"}],"ec024":[{"name":"台灣"},{"name":"全球"},{"name":"亞太地區"},{"name":"中國大陸"},{"name":"國內外地區"},{"name":"南非"},{"name":"新興市場"},{"name":"香港"},{"name":"美國"},{"name":"東協地區"},{"name":"大中華地區"},{"name":"單一國家"}],"ec006":[{"name":"新臺幣"},{"name":"美元"},{"name":"人民幣"},{"name":"南非幣"}],"ec022":[{"name":"月配"},{"name":"季配"},{"name":"年配"},{"name":"半年配"}],"ec039":[{"name":"指數股票型"},{"name":"主動式ETF"}],"nclass_public":[{"name":"主動式ETF"},{"name":"國外股票型"},{"name":"國內股票型"},{"name":"債券型"},{"name":"槓反型"}],"status":0,"totalPage":0,"nowPage":0}